View Full Version : Argentine Economy
It seems that the world is going to freeze a few more of the Argentine assets. Do you think that they have decided to make it look a little uglier for Argentina?
This way Iceland and the rest of the non pay countries will comply with what the IMF wants.
This could actually cause some of us ex-pats a problem - I just don't know how big it could get.
There is already a "commonly known fact" here in South America that the US and the other first and second world countries of the West are directly responsible for sucking every bit of wealth out of South America, and here in Argentina specifically to the Argentinos.
Right or wrong on that, add to it the wordings of the "angry" finance minister talking about a conspiracy and the world (the US and its "allies") trying to "scuttle the Bicentenial Fund".
People at times here can have quite a bad opinion of foreigners to begin with, and US citizens can be a prime target here as things are. I've posted before about an incident that a few of us expats experienced one night at Iberia - not a great big deal but a local telling us to go home and get out of their country.
I've not run into a lot of sentiment that stong here and certainly the above is the worst encounter I've had in my three years of living here. Not bad so far, but if Argentina starts going downhill faster toward (maybe not as bad as? Another crash like 2002 because of actions like those taken (again, rightly or wrongly, I'm not arguing that) by the court - well, perceptions of culpability here are seen through SA's and Argentina's own version of rose-colored glasses.
Perma-tourists from the States might have a lot more problems staying here over more than a couple of expirations / trips to Colonia for example. Some hassle from migraciones on entry possibly.
Who knows. Could it get worse in more social situations if things get really ugly?
I actually think that the "world" just wants to see Argentina take responsiblity for its debt, cut the huge problem of graft, cut spending it can't maintain and then turn into a strong trading partner. I think everyone would think that is really cool.
Member #4112
01-13-10, 22:34
Great idea, but IMHO it is right up there with "if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their butts" so long as self serving politicians keep getting elected both here and in the US.
Got drilled today about how "Obama" froze the Argentine funds. Gave it my best shot trying too explain that Obama really did not have anything to do with the judgment. Do not think I got my point across. Gringos will probably be vilified and become Cristina's scapegoat. Know 20 billion is not chump change, but paying the bond holders off would probably be a more cost effective route than the one they are taking now: higher interest rates. Would 20 billion really break the bank? As long as this dark cloud hangs over their head, Argentina will continue to pay high interest rates and probably end up costing them more than the 20 billion that has not been settled. "As the World Turns" in Argentina.
Member #1164
01-20-10, 11:20
I have heard from a couple clients of mine and a couple friends of a rumor that started in December. Well people are saying that the government might close the doors to the banks again in within the next month or 2. That means if you got cash in the banks you will NOT be able to get any of it.
Norman Stormin
01-20-10, 11:57
The money grab from banks seems to recycle here roughly every ten years. I've been here twice when it happened (wouldn't put a nickle in anything here). They've reached the end of their rope and must now hang. Begged, borrowed and stolen everything available. The confiscation of private pension funds got them through last year. This "borrowing" (of course never to be paid back) of reserves was a sign of despiration.
My guess is the banks will be closed before another default, money seized, and replaced with more future worthless bonds. It's also time to issue a new currency. It will be called the Austral and will be exchaged at a rate of one Austral for every 100 pesos. For the purpose of paying foreign creditors it will be pegged to the dollar one for one.
Another sign of a desperate nation looking to divert the proletariate's attention from the forthcoming money grab, Argentina is again rattling sabers in Queen Elizabeth's court http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1244325/Britain-hits-Argentina-launching-fresh-claim-Falkland-Islands.html?ITO=1490
This could be the last hurrah. My friends at the Circulo Militaire have been patiently waiting for their opportunity.
It sure does seem something is going on. See where Congress is going to evaluate the legitimacy of the country's debt / bonds.
WSJ:
Such an investigation would be reminiscent of a study carried out in Ecuador, which determined much of the country's debt was illegitimate and was used by President Rafael Correa as the evidence to default on much of the country's debts in late 2008.http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100120-706381.html?mod=rss_Bonds
There's something very serious going on behind the scene or Christina would not have canceled her trip to China.
The Chinese are very important to the Argies. The Argies have resources the Chinese want and they have money, something the Argies don't.
Exon
There's something very serious going on behind the scene or Christina would not have canceled her trip to China.
The Chinese are very important to the Argies. The Argies have resources the Chinese want and they have money, something the Argies don't.
ExonCanceling the China trip was indeed a surprise. She is afraid to leave the country. Also cancelled trip to Uruguay for the inauguration of their new President. Sounds like the old girl is afraid of a Honduran coup.
Wild Walleye
01-20-10, 14:52
Canceling the China trip was indeed a surprise. She is afraid to leave the country. Also cancelled trip to Uruguay for the inauguration of their new President. Sounds like the old girl is afraid of a Honduran coup.New day, same old s--t.
Hard to imagine that the democratically elected president (regardless of one's like or dislike for her) of a nation of 40 million being afraid to leave the country for fear of being kicked out of office. However, considering the theft and subsequent spending of the citizens' retirement funds, she might be safer out of the country. A change in the front office to a more free market based philosophy would be a good thing.
Concerns over closing banks, restricting the movement of capital and devaluing the currency create further risk for investors. Add perpetual uncertainty and instability to anti-foreigner and anti-private enterprise biases and you can understand why foreign investors don't want to invest here and why Argentinians with any modicum of wealth keep it off shore.
That said, if this scenario unfolds in typical Argentine fashion, goods and services should be cheaper for dollar and euro denominated investors. That said, I suspect that chica prices will initially go up.
And what were the presidential reasons for shirking her place in the sun? No outburst of lofty patriotism in the bicentenary year or even a more narrow-minded nationalism but an explicit fear of leaving Vice-President Julio Cobos in charge, which is nothing more than a supreme confession of weakness.This quote form the BA Harold implies that the Vice President assumes temporary power, while the President is out of the country. Is this true? Why? In the USA the VP does not assume any power when the President is out of the country. With Modern communication there is no need.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/23039
It is in the Articles of the Constitution I believe: absence VP assumes powers. Think she is afraid VP will call an emergency session of Congress.
Executive.
The Executive Branch is formed by the President (Art. 87) The Vice-president replaces the President in case of illness, absence from the capital, death, resignation, or removal.
The Vice-President doesn't belong to the executive branch. Curiously, it belongs to the legislative branch since he is also the president of the senate. (Art. 57)
The President promulgates the laws sanctioned by Congrees, and has veto power over them. The President directs international relations and is the Commander in Chief of the Army. In some cases, the President can issue emergency decrees.
The Argentine Ambassador is lobbying the US Congress about the "Vulture Funds." The Vultures are not going to settle at the 2005 rate. The Vultures hold the keys to the kingdom for Argentina. They are pissed.
http://www.diarioactualidad.com/noticias/14/61/articulo/32817/2010-01-20_denuncia_la_argentina_fondos_buitres_al_congreso_norteamericano.html
Google Translation:
The Argentine government has sent a letter to all U. S. Congressmen to raise the position of Argentina and denouncing the "vulture funds" that supposedly "boycotting" the solution to the problem of debt in Argentina.
Here are some key paragraphs of the text signed by the ambassador in Washington:
"Once again I turn to you (the Congress) to inform you about the status of negotiations to resolve the situation of the small group of investors in Argentine bonds that decided to reject the Argentine government's offer made in 2005. As you know, the 81% of all holders of bonds issued under U. S. Law their status resolved in agreement with our government. "
? Vulture funds conducted an intense lobbying in the U. S. Congress to pressure Argentina to pay off bonds that entered the Exchange 2005 and have been buying them for pennies after the default. Nevertheless, few hours after the Argentine government announced in December its intention to reopen negotiations with creditors who did not accept the swap, 2005, vulture funds did not agree. ".
Follow the letter: "After the Argentine Congress recently decided overwhelmingly to authorize the Executive to negotiate a new exchange with those who accepted the offer in 2005, the Economy Ministry presented all the documents immediately to the Security and Exchange Commission estimated to reach a final agreement in the coming weeks. With this important step, the Argentine people will have completed the sad story of a debt dating back to the dictatorial regime that hit Argentina between 1976 and 1983? "
"• One of the main arguments of vulture funds is to reject the acceptance rate of offers of 2005, but it reached three of every four bondholders, they consider inadequate. They know that the reopening of negotiations can give place at a rate of accessions nearly 90% of total debt that went into default in 2001, this level of agreement pulverize the argument that Argentina's offer is unacceptable? " continues the text.
Then the ambassador denounced the alleged practice of vulture funds "? Specialize in the use of aggressive tactics and harmful to good relations between our countries. These vulture funds have done so much damage in different countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia has led to a group of his colleagues to introduce the bill STOP THE VULTURES FUND ACT.
He concludes: "Mr. Representative, is my purpose in this letter to reiterate the firm intention of my government to move forward with policies to overcome the partial default state which is Argentina, which naturally includes complete negotiations with holdouts not benefited from the exchange in 2005. I also emphasized that the only way is to repeat the sustainability criteria that governed the supply of 2005 and enabled the payment of debt holders who trusted and contributed to Argentina's recovery. In light of this unheard of wanting to prevent a final solution to the question I ask is that you reject any attempt by vulture funds and their lobbyists to achieve their evil goal. "
In this way, Argentina rejects certain lobbies pressure, letter in which even referred to Senator Kennedy, and which provides a listing of vulture funds in question and which also speaks of the relationship bilateral between Argentina and the United States:
"With regard to our present and immediate future, our two countries are working together in Haiti and the G20. The President has invited Barack Obama President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner a summit on nuclear security, while our labor minister Carlos Tomada will meet with Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis to coordinate efforts in the fight against slave labor and advance the creation of decent work for our peoples, "finally closes Hector Timerman Ambassador his letter, dated today.
Wild Walleye
01-25-10, 14:52
It is in the Articles of the Constitution I believe: absence VP assumes powers. Think she is afraid VP will call an emergency session of Congress.I believe that her major concerns are his ability to enact things (that she specifically opposes) in her absence. They both have different benefactors and she has certainly been punch a few well known benefactors in the nose. Perhaps, she is concerned that the VP would seek to right some of those perceived wrongs if she was out of the country.
Stan Da Man
01-26-10, 00:19
I believe that her major concerns are his ability to enact things (that she specifically opposes) in her absence.Yeah like, say, an order withdrawing the police from in front of the Central Bank so Redrado can get back to work. What a pathetic tactic. I read an article about this in today's paper, but is she really stooping to this level?
Nothing like bringing to bear your police power to effectively permit you to steal $6.5 billion from the Central Bank. I guess Chavez is tired of loaning them money, too. With inflation in Argentina being so low, the poor guy can't get a decent return on his investment.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35148562/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
Exon
How much longer before we hear a giant POP - or will it be a slow whistle like the air coming out of the balloon?
With the current news, how can the exchange rate be slow stable?
Is there any likelihood that a repeat of 2001 is possible?
Chica Seeker
01-31-10, 03:13
Exon,
I read that article as well and I think that it speaks volumes about Ms. Kirchner. I don't know about you, but 50 mg of Viagra works better for me than a couple of pork chops!
How much longer before we hear a giant POP - or will it be a slow whistle like the air coming out of the balloon?
With the current news, how can the exchange rate be slow stable?
Is there any likelihood that a repeat of 2001 is possible?I have been reading 'pop and whistle' predictions for the past 3 years and posting that the liklihood was slight. US nationals have to realize that the Arg peso is to all intensive purposes, a U$ currency and although it has inflated / devalued against the U$ by about 5% p.a. since 2002, the difference since the corralito is an exchange of 3 to 1 to a current 3.8 to 1. About the same rate the U$ has devalued against the Euro. The real issue of course is the internal inflation. More than 30% per annum which is why prices for consumer goods such as apartments, food, chicas, taxis etc impacts so directly on costs to a monger. Eventually it will collapse but I think it will not be this year or perhaps even in 2011. It is a remarkable system that defies logic. But it will collapse. The question is always, 'when?'
Argento
How much longer before we hear a giant POP - or will it be a slow whistle like the air coming out of the balloon?
With the current news, how can the exchange rate be slow stable?
Is there any likelihood that a repeat of 2001 is possible?Although some of us might be licking our chops in anticipation of the fall of this government and the Argentine economy, I believe, like Argento, the fall will not occur before 2012. I believe the script is already written on how Cristina will not only survive, but also assure the election in 2011 of her husband.
The Executive branch of the government has effectively and in a Machiavellian manner taken over the Central Bank. Not only does it have the keys to the bank, it now has its own man, Pesce, as the Director of The Central Bank. Pesce is a long time supporter of Kirchner and has already stated the money in the Central Bank should be used not only to pay down debt, but also be spent on national programs.
Congress in the end will give approval to spend the reserves because the governors and mayors of the big cities are already pressuring the national government to use the money to cover some of the expenses (deficits) of the provinces. Also, big cities like Capital Federal, Mendoza, Cordoba, etc. Would like to get there financial dog and pony shows on the road to raise anywhere from 400 to 100 million dollars (Macri needs to borrow 400 million dollars and other cities need less for their city projects) They can't go to the United States and other countries and make their presentations until the crisis of how the Central Bank reserves can be used to pay the international debt. These governors and mayors will pressure their supporters in congress to settle quickly the spending of the Central Bank reserves.
Cristina will not only take the 6.7 billion over the next few weeks to pay the international debt, but she will take an additional 13.3 billion to pay the rest of the debt sometime in September of this year. Also, as part of her survival strategy and to keep her supporters (voters) on her side she will probably take 5 billion dollars to continue her excessive spending.
We will probably see, as already predicted by the Minister of the Economy, a devaluing of the peso over the next six weeks. The exchange rate will probably settle at an exchange rate of AR$4.05 to US$1. In March and April the peso will be supported by the influx of dollars from the harvesting and sale of the agricultural produce.
After all of these shenanigans the Central Bank at the end of the year will be left with about 23 billion dollars. Of course it could be a lot less if, the 17 billion dollars in CDs the Central Bank holds haven't been pulled and sent outside the country or stashed under the mattress.
Also, during this year, Cristina might get back to the plan of buying YPF, and of course there's always Telecom to nationalize. Also, typical of Peronistas, they'll start pursuing other international companies like IBM and hit them up for unpaid taxes via AFIP. If they can squeeze 100 to 200 million from each international company in the end it will add up to some real money to continue her spending.
During this year the National Government will try to neuter the Supreme Court. It's already mercilessly attacking the Supreme Court. These attacks will continue and by the end of the year the National Government will probably have complete control.
In 2011 we will see the National Government take or get approval to take an additional 10 billion dollars for national programs. This money will be spent on programs in an attempt to assure the election of her husband. If this were to occur, this will leave about 7 billion dollars in the Central Bank to defend the peso.
Also, I believe, Cristina has a plan to capture a larger voting block in the city of Buenos Aires (they usually lose the city to the opposition) How will they try to win the city of BA?
Argentina is the only Mercosur country that has opened its doors fully to citizens of Mercosur countries. Over the past 4 years, Argentina has aggressively and efficiently processed and given residency to about 1 million citizens from various Mercosur countries. Probably half of these immigrants are voting adults. I believe, given the whispers out there, the National Government will at the beginning of 2011 offer citizenship to these people.
Over the past 3 months I've been asking myself why has the National Government restructured and streamlined the two agencies that deal with immigration, the Department of Immigration and the Registry of Persons. As I've mentioned before, I've never seen such a yeomen effort in making these two agencies work smoothly and process people rapidly such that they will have their residency and DNI in record time. The only answer I have is; the National Government will offer citizenship to them and since most of them reside in Buenos Aires they will end up voting for he Government that has given them not only citizenship but also survival monies and food (there are numerous benefits that immigrants receive with only temporary residency. They receive a lot more with residency and the DNI) It's a cynical observation, but this government will do whatever to win.
Also, I believe, Cristina has a plan to capture a larger voting block in the city of Buenos Aires (they usually lose the city to the opposition) How will they try to win the city of BA?
Argentina is the only Mercosur country that has opened its doors fully to citizens of Mercosur countries. Over the past 4 years, Argentina has aggressively and efficiently processed and given residency to about 1 million citizens from various Mercosur countries. Probably half of these immigrants are voting adults. I believe, given the whispers out there, the National Government will at the beginning of 2011 offer citizenship to these people.
Over the past 3 months I've been asking myself why has the National Government restructured and streamlined the two agencies that deal with immigration, the Department of Immigration and the Registry of Persons. As I've mentioned before, I've never seen such a yeomen effort in making these two agencies work smoothly and process people rapidly such that they will have their residency and DNI in record time. The only answer I have is; the National Government will offer citizenship to them and since most of them reside in Buenos Aires they will end up voting for he Government that has given them not only citizenship but also survival monies and food (there are numerous benefits that immigrants receive with only temporary residency. They receive a lot more with residency and the DNI) It's a cynical observation, but this government will do whatever to win.This isn't a new concept, and in fact it is essentially the same strategy the Democrats will employ via "Immigration Reform" to win the 2012 elections in the USA.
Thanks,
Jackson
Wild Walleye
02-01-10, 15:01
You paint a very similar picture of what Obama is trying to do. Robbing Peter to pay Paul, neutralize the judiciary, entrench incumbents and create new partisan voters.
I must add that the hairs on the back of my neck stood up when you mentioned attacking and neutering the Supreme Court. That is exactly what Obama is doing. His lies and misrepresentations about the supreme court featured in his state of the union address were part of an orchestrated attack on the judiciary by leftists (with Obama at the helm).
Argentina May Seek Changes to Central Bank Charter, Nacion Says.
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Bill Faries.
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner may seek changes to the central bank's charter to allow the government to tap the institution's reserves, La Nacion said.
Fernandez and her husband, lawmaker Nestor Kirchner, want to be able to use the reserves to help create jobs or finance infrastructure projects, the Buenos Aires-based newspaper said, without saying where it obtained the information.
The proposal, which may be sent to congress next month, was discussed in a meeting with lawmakers at the presidential residence yesterday, La Nacion said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Faries in Buenos Aires at wfaries@bloomberg. Net
Last Updated: February 1, 2010 06:36 EST If they can take the central banks reserves, CFK should not run out of money for a few more years. Although when the reserves get low enough, the peso can get hit. Of course she can always lie, as they do about inflation, and say they have more then they do. Not sure if there are any checks and balances to prevent that. I notice they can say whatever they want about inflation. They fired a bunch of people who calculate inflation, and all of a sudden, inflation was down. Maybe they can do the same with the central bank? Don’t know.
Wild Walleye
02-02-10, 03:45
If they can take the central banks reserves, CFK should not run out of money for a few more years. Although when the reserves get low enough, the peso can get hit. Of course she can always lie, as they do about inflation, and say they have more then they do. Not sure if there are any checks and balances to prevent that. I notice they can say whatever they want about inflation. They fired a bunch of people who calculate inflation, and all of a sudden, inflation was down. Maybe they can do the same with the central bank? Don't know.However, the global market has an idea of exactly what reserves, resources and income the country currently has and will calculate what 'subsidies' appear out of thin air (reserves) and will therefore mark down the reserves. As reserves dwindle, risk increases. Therefore, interest rates across the board will rise in order to compensate lenders for risk and the cost of capital will rise therefore constraining economic activity and fostering a cyclical tailspin that will auger into the earth.
Foreign exchange valuation differentials are driven largely (but not entirely) by interest rate differentials.
The 103 room 4 star hotel purchased with the legally questionable US$ 2 million by the Kirchners in Alto Calafate, is, without any marketing effort, 30% (30 rooms) filled by Aerolíneas flight attendants and pilots every night of the year at a cost of AR$ 519 per night. There are other hotels in the area whose nightly lodging is 20 to 50% less. Aerolíneas is the airline nationalized by the Kircheners about a year ago.
Since coming into power the wealth of these two corrupt politicians has gone from about a million dollars to about 22 million dollars (I suspect this is the tip of the financial iceberg that is known) According to them their wealth is due to savvy investing.
The full story can be read in today's edition of La Nación:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1229248&pid=8244249&toi=6479
Obviously the threat of crime here is exaggerated.
Not 1 arrest the first day!Maybe they're presence alone is a deterrent to crime?
That reminds me of the mid-western city mayor who was criticized for hiring his cousin as the city's hurricane watcher. He response was "Obviously my cousin must be doing a good job because we haven't had a single hurricane since I hired him."
Thanks,
Jackson
Not 1 arrest the first day!The real war will start between the Federal Police and the Metropolitan police when there is a full contingency of the later. Why?
Everyone knows, actually anyone who has had a drink at one of the local watering holes or dinner at one of the city restaurants that they all pay protection money (coima) to the police. Who hasn't seen a police officer pull-up to the curb and enter the establishment and an envelope is passed to the officer? If you conduct business in the city most likely you are paying the police force.
No one should see these corrupt exchanges as being perpetrated by a few rouge cops, these transactions are endemic and systematically executed by the top brass. Even the little old lady from which I buy the best bread in town passes an envelope at the same time and same day of the month to a police officer. These businesses see it as part of the cost of doing business.
Once there is a fully operational city police force there will be a turf war, not over the arresting of criminals, but over the collecting of the envelopes.
They only work in the daytime and are unarmed!
What a leader Macri is! Macri for Presidente! Yeah right!Okay, I'll bite.
Sidney, why do you care if the city develops their own police force or not?
Does this affect you in some way, or are you simply railling against all things not Reagan?
Thanks,
Jackson
Seems the new police is working together with the normal police quite well. No turf war. If you can read spanish: http://www.clarin.com/diario/2010/02/13/um/m-02139439.htm
Basically it is a report about the usual day of an officer of the "policia metropolitana". Including a complaint by a woman about a "privado" in her building which is causing problems and police not acting because being bribed.
Response: "No, we can only act if sex is offered in public places. You could file a report to the attorney though."
No word about the bribed police officers. Of course not.
Not surprising that they don't bother each other. Of course you can all do that poor lady a favor by not visiting any privados at Corrientes & Libertad:-)
If you can read spanish: http://www.clarin.com/diario/2010/02/13/um/m-02139439.htm
"No, we can only act if sex is offered in public places. You could file a report to the attorney though."Although the profession of "El fiscal" en Spanish is that of attorney, the article was referring that one could file a complaint with an assistant attorney general (el fiscal) not just an attorney. It's a common practice to file complaints (against noisy neighbors, construction workers who harass women walking by construction sites, etc.) with the hundreds of assistant attorney generals (fiscales) in the city of Buenos Aires.
By the way, they are very effective in conflict resolutions. They've been known to shutdown construction sites for a few weeks if 2 or more complaints are filed against workers for harassing women. However, in general, the role of an assistant attorney general is to evaluate cases against those accused of crimes and decide whether or not to proceed in prosecuting them.
At the risk of being called a pedant, I have to repeat what I have posted before about Argentine politics and law. The sole purpose of public life, political or administrative, is not to serve the nation, it is solely to enrich the office bearer. I bet there are exceptions but I have never met them. So the politicians are there to gain personal wealth by secret commissions, (coimas) paid by beneficaries of public works programs that are beefed-up 50% to pay the coimas. All the police are on the take, from simple free meals at restaurants, (ask Ramiro or Rock Harders) to massive shakedowns on multi million dollar companies. The judiciary and the public prosecutors are all in it. Don't even ask me about how the Customs (Aduana) department works. They are all gigantic shakedowns and the bulk of the money percolates to the highest offices in the land.
The President with the longest time in office, Carlos Menem, (2 terms in the 90's) left the office a billionaire on his own admission, given he said by grateful admirers who included as it turns out, courtesy of US corruption laws, German industrial companies that shelled out close to 250 million dollars in just one deal.
So pleeeeeese don't discuss the goings on here in a manner that seeks to rationalise, what to us are illogical decisions. The aim is to strip all the government revenue that it is possible to grab and to convert that money to their own wealth funds. And this they do to a remarkable degree of success. And since that was the aim of becoming a politician or law officer, you can't fault their results.
Argento
Inflation may accelerate do to spending central bank money, to help bolster K popularity for the coming elections.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=azssCZBBHCvE
In this current issue of The Economist, there are 2 articles on Argentina. One is devoted to the current sabre rattling over oil exploration in the Falklands and the other is a substancial 3 page Article detailing the Kirchner's contrary governing by wim and favouritism. There is detailed 2 part reference to the half a billion US dollars from the Province of Santa Cruz that they have 'lost' as well as an inset article devoted to their tourism empire. Their declared wealth is over 12 million dollars, mainly made by shady insider property deals. They have been cited by Siemens of Germany for being in receipt of millions of dollars in bribes related to Siemans business activities in Argentina though this point is not made in the article. Their true worth would be close to 1 billion and is an ongoing accumulation, with funds rolling in by the hour.
For those illiterate board members that still ask is it worth investing in Argentina and in Argentinian stocks, I offer 2 pieces of advice.
1. Learn to read.
2. Read this week's The Economist.
Business is about making money, not gambling.
Argento
K signs new decree to use central bank money to pay foreign debt, since the first was blocked by the court and it is unlikely to pass congress. This time she wants 4.2 billion US instead of 6.6 billion. Since it's less, it not the same decree that the former central bank chief opposed and brought to court.
Don't know how it will play out? She does have her puppet as central bank chief now, I am sure he will not object, unlike the other chief. I guess congress can take it to court.
I don’t know if K can ignore another court ruling or not. Not sure how the legal system in Argentina works. If her puppet releases the money right away, can the court then freeze it or order it back once the government has the money?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajKbx0418P1I
K signs new decree to use central bank money to pay foreign debt, since the first was blocked by the court and it is unlikely to pass congress. This time she wants 4.2 billion US instead of 6.6 billion. Since it's less, it not the same decree that the former central bank chief opposed and brought to court.
Don't know how it will play out? She does have her puppet as central bank chief now, I am sure he will not object, unlike the other chief. I guess congress can take it to court.
I don't know if K can ignore another court ruling or not. Not sure how the legal system in Argentina works. If her puppet releases the money right away, can the court then freeze it or order it back once the government has the money?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajKbx0418P1IIt's an incredible story, but the US$4 billion was transfered while she was addressing the opening of Congress. The money will be used to pay the
the international debt due this year. By the way, constitutional scholars are in agreement the action is unconstitutional. However, constitutional issues have never stopped Peronistas from violating the constitution.
Article in Spanish is from the front page of La Nación:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1238631&pid=8426496&toi=6255
The old girl has opened Pandora's Box: Central Bank Funds.
Judge Thomas Griesa of the United States District Court of the Southern District of New York on Wednesday ruled that funds of the Central Bank, also called the BCRA, are really those of the Republic of Argentina saying evidence shows that the bank is not autonomous.http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0717036220100407?type=marketsNews
Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?
"Any money raised by a new bond sale by Argentina will be subject to attachments" by creditors, said American University's Porzecanski. "These guys are salivating because they see the prey coming back into the arena."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aT2pXE7OJGZ8
Wild Walleye
05-25-10, 02:59
Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?The Peso dollar relationship is more than meets the eye. Dollar-denominated liabilities of the country drive the powers that be at the central bank to intervene in the market in order to try to maintain the exchange rate within a certain range (don't want to make you debts bigger, without incurring new ones)
While the dollar has appreciated 3.23% vs. The peso over the last 8 months. I don't recall that either country altered fed rates, which, all things being equal is the biggest driver in forex movements. Therefore, in a 'free market', the additional 3.23% if for additional risk. Do you think that adequately compensates the investor for risking his dough in AR?
Conversely, the peso has appreciated 15.8% vs. The euro, during the same period.
Rock Harders
05-25-10, 05:01
Walleye,
You are right that the AR Peso is essentially tied to the US Dollar in that the AR peso's value against other currencies only changes in exact concurrence with an adjustment in the US Dollar's value against a particular currency. The AR peso's "appreciation" versus the Euro has absolutely nothing to do with any strength in the currency and everything to do with the simple fact that the Euro fell against the Dollar.
Argentina is one of the most dollar based and dependent economies in the world that does not actually use the dollar as its currency. All big ticket items are priced in dollars and all savings are held in dollars. Even the most ignorant Argentine knows better than to save in pesos. Dollars can be used to make purchases at near market exchange rates for 99.9% of the products and services offered in Buenos Aires. Can you imagine earning in one currency and then having to buy a house or car in a different currency that is worth 4x as much?
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?My point is, Argentina has been forced to use the Euro to support the Peso for about two months. It is difficult to understand how the Peos was able to stay flat during this chaotic period with Euro. Central Bank in Argentina has got to be loosing big time. But the brain trust of AP knows a lot more about Worldly things than I.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/finance/argentina-forced-buy-euros-avoid-ny-embargoes---analysts/
Now see where more funds have been seized to the tune of 2.43 billion.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/34470
Wild Walleye
05-26-10, 01:29
My point is, Argentina has been forced to use the Euro to support the Peso for about two months.Err, I'm missing something. On the face of it, one might think that the peso has been kicking the snot out of the Euro. In fact if you were making that bet recently, you'd be well in the money. However, as Rockharders helped to articulate my point, that relationship (peso:euro) is really secondary to, and driven by, the dollar:peso relationship. Because the peso is highly correlated to the dollar (that means basically that it follows the dollar) and the dollar has been in high demand during this period of flight to quality, the peso has benefited via the dollar's strength against the Euro.
It is difficult to understand how the Peos was able to stay flat during this chaotic period with Euro. Central Bank in Argentina has got to be loosing big time.See above. Market forces. If the dollar declined against the euro, at the same time the euro declined against the dollar, the peso and the Arg economy would be taking it in the shorts.
In just the last 120 days, the euro has lost about 19% of its value vs. The dollar. If the peso stayed with the Euro (let alone declined vs. The euro) the defecation would hit the rotary oscillator. A 19% loss against the dollar would take the dollar:peso rate to about AR$4.67:USD$1. So every dollar owed by companies and the govt that collect revenues in peso just got bigger, way bigger. In this scenario, yesterday (before the devaluation) you sold a widget for AR$100 (USD$25.5) and made a profit of AR$10 (USD$2.55) after all your costs including USD$6 in debt coverage. Tomorrow, you sell a widget for AR$100 (USD$21.4) However, your dollar denominated debt still requires payment of USD$6 (now AR$28, and increase of AR$4.52, therefore, my after tax profit is AR$5.48 (USD$1.17) So, in 120 short days, while still selling the same number of widgets at the same price, my profit has just been cut by 54%. That is undesireable.
But the brain trust of AP knows a lot more about Worldly things than I."Don't sell yourself short, you're quite a slouch"
Name that movie.
"Don't sell yourself short, you're quite a slouch"
Name that movie.Caddyshack
I had been following Argentina's political and economic situation for the past year or so. Seemed like the cost of living was increasing and that the entire system was a house of cards that was probably going to fall within the next 24 months.
Then, I ran into this article that paints an entirely different picture -
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-03/argentine-bank-stocks-may-rally-on-economy-debt-swap-update2-.html
So, the question is - what the real story on the ground in Argentina now?
OK. I have spent most of this day catching up on my reading. (I have spent the last two months in the DR and, well, I did not read much)
But, I will tell you, the DR ain't cheap like it was 3 - 4 years ago. It made me appreciate Cali, Colombia. I have friends still living in Cali and Medellin. Some live happily for as little as 1300 US dollars a month - including rent. Others blow 3500 monthly and live like KINGS. For only 2,000 - you are pretty happy.
Seems like much is changing in Argentina nowadays. I doubt any Yankees are getting by on just 1500 bucks a month and are happy about it. I get the feeling, that in general, Argentina is about as expensive as Miami.
Is that about the truth of it?
That would mean that many locals are sinking below the poverty line. Only bad shit can happen then.
After the peso devaluation, my trips to Buenos Aires and Bangkok for the most part tended to be about the same dollar value for many years. Not exactly when, but maybe about 3-4 years ago, Argentina inflation started to put more of a dent in my pocket. I often described to my friends that BA was Europe at Bangkok prices. It is no longer so.
So, "heaven" would be 3 months of Bangkok alternating with 1 month of BA. So that would make it 3 roundtips a year! Malaysia Airlines does fly KL-BA through South Africa but the fare is never discounted. A few years ago, I actually met some male flight stewards in Cafe Exedra and took them to Cattos.
Seems like much is changing in Argentina nowadays. I doubt any Yankees are getting by on just 1500 bucks a month and are happy about it. I get the feeling, that in general, Argentina is about as expensive as Miami.
Is that about the truth of it?While inflation here in BsAs is not pretty, the cost of living does not compare to Miami. I think it's the "incidentals" that batter you in Miami (and the states for that matter) There's a huge difference in utility costs and other things, plus the nickel and dimeing that goes on here is light years away from the big hand in your pocket in the states. And, we're not even talking about health care.
I found an interesting poll on a expat Argentine discussion board. 35% report living on less than 1K per month. Few report living on over 2K per month. (I get the impression that the audience is made up of budget conscious / coupon cutters) Never the less, it does give an impression.
I have a couple follow up points to raise if anyone cares to comment:
1, how is the general population adjusting to the inflation. Obviously, there is a large lower class that at some point will become discontent - how does this affect Argentinian's view of visitors / tourists?
2, Getting out of BA proper, the economic realities are better for the citizens?
3, What are the most likely economic trends throughout the next 24 - 36 months?
If I wanted to I can live comfortably for 1500 pesos. But I have my own house and there for don't don't have to pay rent or a mortgage. It all depends how you want to spend your money.
I live on around 2,000 USD per month, but that includes:
- Living in an overpriced furnished apartment in a cheto neighborhood. If I wanted to sign a two year lease, I could cut my rent in half.
- Eating out almost everyday.
- Taking taxi everywhere.
- A massage therapist that comes to my house once per week (therapeutic, not full service)
This doesn't include mongering, traveling, etc. Just day to day expenses.
I could easily live here on 1500 USD per month or even less if I weren't so lazy.
So, including dating, fun and recreation (whatever that means) taking out dating frustrations on whoever the lucky girl happens to be at the message parlor from time to time. 2 - 3 grand per month would do it nicely?
(cheaper than I thought, actually. I spent a couple months in the DR and I kept finding myself say under my breath - damn this place has gotten expensive. BA seems much cheaper than the DR based upon the recent posts I have read - inflation and all)
So, including dating, fun and recreation (whatever that means) taking out dating frustrations on whoever the lucky girl happens to be at the message parlor from time to time. 2 - 3 grand per month would do it nicely?I think you could live comfortably on 2k, like a king on 3k. Lodging will be the biggest part of your budget. I rent a "tourist" apartment. It's furnished and includes all utilities, but is still way overpriced. Renting a "normal" apartment, while cheaper, generally requires a two year lease and your first born as a deposit.
The biggest increase in prices I have seen is eating in restaurants in Palermo. I spent 63 pesos for lunch, which not so long ago was closer to 50.
I should add, I wear jeans and t-shirts and don't buy much in Argentina other than CDs and books. Electronics, I bring back from the US or Europe. Clothes, I generally buy in the US. You couldn't pay me to drive here. All of these things cost quite a bit here and would increase your costs significantly.
I'm curious to hear what other expat residents think.
I think you could live comfortably on 2k, like a king on 3k. Lodging will be the biggest part of your budget. I rent a "tourist" apartment. It's furnished and includes all utilities, but is still way overpriced. Renting a "normal" apartment, while cheaper, generally requires a two year lease and your first born as a deposit.
The biggest increase in prices I have seen is eating in restaurants in Palermo. I spent 63 pesos for lunch, which not so long ago was closer to 50.
I should add, I wear jeans and t-shirts and don't buy much in Argentina other than CDs and books. Electronics, I bring back from the US or Europe. Clothes, I generally buy in the US. You couldn't pay me to drive here. All of these things cost quite a bit here and would increase your costs significantly.
I'm curious to hear what other expat residents think.I bought a house here a while back so rent isn't an issue. I do run a car and that is about a grand a year not including depreciation. Utilities are so cheap it is laughable. Figure about U$140 a month, max, including basic cable and internet. Cost of food is like asking how long is the piece of string. If you eat out for breakfast, lunch and dinner figure on 160 - 200 pesos a day. (U$50) I cook mostly because that's my thing and although the food here is good, it does get boring and is pretty plain. You would be hard-pressed to spend more than U$100 on food a week if you cooked a bit and ate out a bit.
Booze is cheap enough except if you drink out at Blacks etc. I am not on a budget and I live and work here as if I was home. It really is still very cheap whereas 3 years back they almost paid you to live here. My guess is I spend U$600 - 700 a month to live, the variable being how often you eat out.
Argento
Argentina Top Carry-Trade Currency.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/peso-becoming-top-carry-trade-currency-as-exports-soar-argentina-credit.html
House Music
11-06-10, 23:40
Poverty on the streets but no real problem with the clubs.
Looks like CFK is moving more to the left, to appease the unions for the election.
It will probably harm foreign direct investment. I don't understand why someone would move large amounts of money into a country where the rules keep changing. There is no way to plan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-08/argentine-profit-sharing-law-threatens-jobs-as-investment-lags-chile-peru.html
Looks like CFK is moving more to the left, to appease the unions for the election.
It will probably harm foreign direct investment. I don't understand why someone would move large amounts of money into a country where the rules keep changing. There is no way to plan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-08/argentine-profit-sharing-law-threatens-jobs-as-investment-lags-chile-peru.htmlThis is old news. They've been talking this bill up for two months or more. Politics as usual. The bill likely has very little chance, but if it is voted down by the opposition, CFK can blame them for not helping out the working poor. Election year political manuevering.
Wild Walleye
11-08-10, 22:47
Interesting read. Saw it the other day but didn't have a chance to post it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/peso-becoming-top-carry-trade-currency-as-exports-soar-argentina-credit.html
Member #3320
11-09-10, 09:33
I was reading the discussion below on how much its required to live comfortably in BA.
IMHO, I would say with current prices and if you are renting in Palermo or Recoleta, move in taxis, fuck at will, go out and eat at will,. You need about 4500 us$ a month.
What do you guys think?
I was reading the discussion below on how much its required to live comfortably in BA.
IMHO, I would say with current prices and if you are renting in Palermo or Recoleta, move in taxis, fuck at will, go out and eat at will. You need about 4500 us$ a month.
What do you guys think? Depends on your lifestyle I guess
Rent: From 600 dollar to 2500 dollar or so. I think you should be looking somewhere between 800 and 1400 dollar.
Food: I can eat out for around 35 peso a day, that would make around 300 dollar a month. I am guessing that cooking at home is also around 300 dollar. If you go to the more fancy restaurants I would add atleast 500 dollar or so.
Going out 2 times a week: Around 100 dollar a week, 400 to 500 dollar a month.
Chicas = 2 times a week x 150 dollar, 1200 dollar a month.
Taxi = I would quit taking them and just go with bus, train or Subte, but 2 trips a day I would say cost you about another 300 to 500 dollar a month
Healthcare: I would guess around 250 to 300 dollar a month for a good plan
Extra = 15 dollar a day, 500 dollar a month.
I would say atleast 2500 dollar and up to 5000 dollar a month
Member #3320
11-09-10, 14:31
Trampa,
I agree. Though if you want to live well and shag at will then it would the upper limit.500us$
My break up.
Rental.1200 us$, all inclusive.
Taxis.600 us$ at will
Food.500 us$ eating out at will
Sex.1900 us$ (about 25 chicas a month excluding Sundays..one daily)
Misc.500 us$ ( unknown/unaccountable)
Total = 4700 us$
Trampa,
I agree. Though if you want to live well and shag at will then it would the upper limit.500us$
My break up.
Rental.1200 us$, all inclusive.
Taxis.600 us$ at will.
Food.500 us$ eating out at will.
Sex.1900 us$ (about 25 chicas a month excluding Sundays. One daily)
Misc.500 us$ (unknown / unaccountable)
Total = 4700 us$Sex about 75 dollar a day (200 peso) I guess it's possible if you only go to privado's but then again is that fun if you do it every day? I was calculating about 150 dollar for a nightclub night, 2 times a week should be a enough if you want to enjoy the other sides of BA as well.
20 dollar a day for the taxi every day, that's about 4 trips of 20 peso each. Personally I would say it's pretty much money badly spend and it seems a bit much. Just find places close to your home, would be my advice or learn how to use the public transport
500 dollar or about 18 dollar a day for food, you really need to pick your spots and don't go to fancy restaurants. Around 35 peso a day is possible, but that's just 1 meal if you eat 2 times a day out it will be a stretch. If you don't want to look to much how much you spend I think it should be closer to 800-1000 dollar.
Rental can probally be a bit cheaper but the question should be if you want to spend less on a place you where you probally be around 12-16 hours a day in a place where you spend 4000 dollar a month
Member #3320
11-09-10, 18:26
Trampa,
Minor correction. 75us$ will be 300 ARS and not 200 ARS.
300 ARS is not a huge amount but enough to for chica out calls at your home as well.
The taxi money will also include paying the taxi fare for chica outcalls.
Local transport is OK to use but then night time. It is either not there or too infrequent.
Trampa,
Minor correction.75us$ will be 300 ARS and not 200 ARS.
300 ARS is not a huge amount but enough to for chica out calls at your home as well.
The taxi money will also include paying the taxi fare for chica outcalls.
Local transport is OK to use but then night time. It is either not there or too infrequent. Personally I am someone who does spend, around 3000-4000 dollar a month but I hardly take the taxi's anymore. I am mobile though and don't mind walking 6-10 blocks.
The buses I normally take 152,130,64,60,343,707 do have good frequency but I do have to say that I don't enjoy to take the bus at night (lack of frequency mostly) and prefer to wait for the Mitre train to go to Cap (first one around 4,30, last one around 12,00) or to provincia (first one around 5,00 and last one 040/0,50)
Depends on your lifestyle I guess
Rent: From 600 dollar to 2500 dollar or so. I think you should be looking somewhere between 800 and 1400 dollar.
Food: I can eat out for around 35 peso a day, that would make around 300 dollar a month. I am guessing that cooking at home is also around 300 dollar. If you go to the more fancy restaurants I would add atleast 500 dollar or so.
Going out 2 times a week: Around 100 dollar a week, 400 to 500 dollar a month.
Chicas = 2 times a week x 150 dollar, 1200 dollar a month.
Taxi = I would quit taking them and just go with bus, train or Subte, but 2 trips a day I would say cost you about another 300 to 500 dollar a month
Healthcare: I would guess around 250 to 300 dollar a month for a good plan
Extra = 15 dollar a day, 500 dollar a month.
I would say atleast 2500 dollar and up to 5000 dollar a monthYour pocket is very deep, my friend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/lowest-rates-since-bear-stearns-failure-signal-debt-deal-argentina-credit.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/lowest-rates-since-bear-stearns-failure-signal-debt-deal-argentina-credit.html
Thanks. Some unfounded optomism from Voodoo methinks.
Argento
Subjective analysis of the Argentine Economy over the last few years: the 2001 crash, union salary increases, commodities, inflation, the empty ATM's earlier this year, etc:
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=6937
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/no-one-cries-for-argentina-embracing-25-inflation-as-fernandez-leads-boom.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/argentinas-turnaround-tango.html?hpw
Stan Da Man
09-05-11, 14:52
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/argentinas-turnaround-tango.html?hpwI read that article when it came out a few days ago and couldn't stop shaking my head in disbelief. It is one of the most laughably misguided pieces I've read this year. It is not small wonder that it came from the New York Times.
The author fails to mention several significant items. The author notes that Argentina defaulted on its debt, but fails to point out that Argentina refused, and continues to refuse, to pay it back. Essentially, Argentina stole $100 billion it owed to its creditors. While it absconded with these funds, this "strategy" has frozen Argentina from capital markets and prevented it from growing like its peers, Brazil and Chile. Admittedly, some has been paid back through purchases in the secondary market at deep discounts. But, only the New York Times could blind itself to this fact.
The author fails to mention Argentina's 20% inflation rate, or that Argentina lies about its inflation stats so it can pay artificially low interest to the lone remaining creditor willing to lend it money: Hugo Chavez. So, Chavez collects half the interest he bargained for. When the real inflation rate is added to the mix, Argentina's 6% GDP growth is putrid. Like Argentina, the NYT undoubtedly would hold up Venezuela as a shining example of economic policy, as well.
The author fails to mention that the Argentine government seized private pensions when it started to run low on cash. It did this supposedly in the name of saving private pensioners from the risks and vicissitudes of world markets, when the Dow was down around 8, 000. In so doing, it robbed those same pensioners of nearly 40% growth in the years since then. But, hey, the government beast needed to be fed, and taxes alone weren't getting the job done.
The author praises Argentina's social welfare programs but fails to mention that these are in part responsible for public lands and parks being effectively seized by migrants from other countries, who have no place to go but the dole when arriving in Buenos Aires.
The article starts out by saying that since the default Argentina "has performed an economic U-turn — an achievement largely unnoticed outside Latin America, but one that President Obama and Congress should look to for inspiration." This is perhaps the most naive statement of all. Has this author failed to notice that this is exactly what the Obama administration has been doing?
HappyGoLucky
06-04-12, 01:34
For what it's worth:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V4GCNG2.htm
TejanoLibre
06-04-12, 01:46
For what it's worth:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V4GCNG2.htm
You will be able to buy a $300. k USD for 30k !
Do it !
TL
Here's an interesting article from the Miami Herald on the Argentine economy that helps explain why things have gotten the why that they have: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/06/16/2851968/argentinas-economic-fiesta-is.html
Member #4112
06-20-12, 13:47
The Miami Herald article posted indicated the true inflation rate is 25% and I can attest to that it is at least that much if not more.
On this trip I had dinner at one of my favorite restaurants and was shocked to see the bill at the end of the meal. The increase since January was at least 25% and the same is true for many purchases you make here.
Balls Deep
06-21-12, 12:40
Xoom is doing 6. 02 Pesos per dollar.
I read today in regard to Sicily's economy,"if I steal a little, I go to jail, if I steal a big amount, I advance my career".
It was not too long ago when you encounter very well educated taxi drivers in countries like Peru or Singapore. Will we see that soon in Argentina?
Next question, where will the Argentinians go? Spain & Italy are in economic turmoil, their normal escape routes will now be close. Maybe, your voluptous apartment manager might pull her panties down now?
I read today in regard to Sicily's economy,"if I steal a little, I go to jail, if I steal a big amount, I advance my career".
It was not too long ago when you encounter very well educated taxi drivers in countries like Peru or Singapore. Will we see that soon in Argentina?
Next question, where will the Argentinians go? Spain & Italy are in economic turmoil, their normal escape routes will now be close. Maybe, your voluptous apartment manager might pull her panties down now?Many argie girls come to México to pursue a career as a) Soap opera starlets, b) Lap dancers, c) Escorts. We expect an increase in the number of workers in these "professions" when the new crisis begins. Argie boys probably will try their luck in other countries as a) Soccer players b) Trannies. Any other ideas fellows?
Just arrived back in BA yesterday. Been hearing bad stuff like Cristina won't allow locals to buy $USD and last year she made imports much more difficult.
I spoke to a Venezuelan friend in Miami who said thats how Chavez started.
I fear Dec 2001 will be coming back to BA soon. Crime is already on the rise. I hear the Rolex store INSIDE THE ALVEAR PALACE HOTEL was knocked off by armed gunman, Crap.
I fear Dec 2001 will be coming back to BA soon. Crime is already on the rise. I hear the Rolex store INSIDE THE ALVEAR PALACE HOTEL was knocked off by armed gunman, Crap.And as a foreign monger with money from outside the country coming here to monger that is bad becouse?
Fuck, for ME it is wonderful! The pussy is going down in price by the day, more and more girls come to the market, locals can't afford any, we are talking my wet dream! And that is before we start talking about things like buying property and taking "stuff" into the country.
Me I say let's PRAY we soon can party like it is 2002! If I am lucky the crime will evan get so bad it scare away a few of the other mongers that comes down here!
(AND remember, I did not vote for Christina and have no say in politic in this place so I have ZERO guilt. The majority of natives that support this insane politic in elections can take all that blame!)
Stranger
Daddy Rulz
07-25-12, 18:57
This has been successful for me. When I'm out an about during the day and have no real business to do I try and dress like a criminal. No jewlery, older jeans, sneakers, t-shirt, and a hoodie. Criminals don't usually rob other criminals. Lucky for me I used to be one so it's not hard for me to pull off.
Just arrived back in BA yesterday. Been hearing bad stuff like Cristina won't allow locals to buy $USD and last year she made imports much more difficult.
I spoke to a Venezuelan friend in Miami who said thats how Chavez started.
I fear Dec 2001 will be coming back to BA soon. Crime is already on the rise. I hear the Rolex store INSIDE THE ALVEAR PALACE HOTEL was knocked off by armed gunman, Crap.
This has been successful for me. When I'm out an about during the day and have no real business to do I try and dress like a criminal. No jewlery, older jeans, sneakers, t-shirt, and a hoodie. Criminals don't usually rob other criminals. Lucky for me I used to be one so it's not hard for me to pull off.BUT the golden rules is even more simple; If you look like food you will be eaten!
And if you are a prey don't go where the predators hunt!
(I dress TO stand out, BUT I do not walk a fucking block it this town when I am drunk and it is dark, or any big city in the word).
Personally I find the whole crime thing in BA overrated, sure I know several people that has been mugged, and going to the wrong place will get you killed for 50p.
BUT if you stay in a nice area, go in cabs after dark and never go to a place you do not know by yourself at night you will be fine. Showing of expensive watches and jewelry will make you a target in any poor country.
Walking looking like a typical clueless tourist will get you robbed in daylight on Florida street, but it will also get you robbed in Paris! Me I find BA 10 times more safe than say London and in some places in the US people will fucking kill you for a pair of sneekers!
And like you say blending in and being the "gray man" is never unwise, unless you want to impress girls that is, jeje.
Stranger
Gato Hunter
07-25-12, 19:46
We almost had to kill a taxista one night that took usto a clip joint.
That night was yet another movie
We almost had to kill a taxista one night that took usto a clip joint.
That night was yet another movieHehe, THAT was quite a night! AFTER croco closed and we where soooooo wasted!
Shit! I still do not have a clue where that was, but to be fair we went looking for trouble! Not something I wold advice anyone to do!
(BUT we never lost any money, we did not even pay the taxi,jeje).
Stranger
Fuck, for ME it is wonderful! The pussy is going down in price by the day, more and more girls come to the market, locals can't afford any, we are talking my wet dream! And that is before we start talking about things like buying property and taking "stuff" into the country. StrangerBetween you, me and the fencepost, the pussy is cheaper here than in pretty much every country I have been to recently. Thailand, Brazil, Colombia, UAE, Canada. I'm trying to stay away from the high peso pussy though. I'm freakin LOVIN it here! 400 pesos for a nice looking chica, servicio completo, and she makes me feel like studly hung well? lol. How can you beat that?
The local mongers don't seem to have any problem affording the pussy. There is always a shitload of posts every day. They set the prices except for chicas that deal mostly with tourists. Us AP mongers are a drop in the chicas pussy in comparison. If the chicas up the prices and the locals pay it, then we have a problem! LOL not really.
Gato Hunter
07-25-12, 21:06
We ended up in las cantinas, that was also the night you bit your tongue
When I put my arm out to stop you from ending up flying over a taxi. Like I said another night you could have made a movie from
Mountaineer
07-25-12, 21:46
Ukraine is way over priced compared to 5 years ago. Prague is now the Las Vegas of Europe, so you pay Las Vegas prices. China is still a bargain. Hong Kong is even better with an 8 to 1 exchange rate. Especially if you like petite spinners. There are thousands of 9's available. Now that the economy is improved in China, many girls need that designer hand bag / designer cosmetics to keep up with the Jones. They take a 3 week "vacation" from Mainland China to Hong Kong or Macau (because it's easier for them to get the short term visa). They need a visa to leave mainland China even though Hong Kong and Macau are part of China. They work the apartment scene for the 3 weeks, coming home with more money than they make in their job in an entire year! Nobody in their home town is the wiser. If BA goes higher than 8 to 1 exchange rate they win the bargain destination award. Mountaineer.
Between you, me and the fencepost, the pussy is cheaper here than in pretty much every country I have been to recently. Thailand, Brazil, Colombia, UAE, Canada. I'm trying to stay away from the high peso pussy though. I'm freakin LOVIN it here! 400 pesos for a nice looking chica, servicio completo, and she makes me feel like studly hung well? LOL. How can you beat that?
The local mongers don't seem to have any problem affording the pussy. There is always a shitload of posts every day. They set the prices except for chicas that deal mostly with tourists. Us AP mongers are a drop in the chicas pussy in comparison. If the chicas up the prices and the locals pay it, then we have a problem! LOL not really.
And as a foreign monger with money from outside the country coming here to monger that is bad becouse?
Fuck, for ME it is wonderful! The pussy is going down in price by the day, more and more girls come to the market, locals can't afford any, we are talking my wet dream! And that is before we start talking about things like buying property and taking "stuff" into the country.
Me I say let's PRAY we soon can party like it is 2002! If I am lucky the crime will evan get so bad it scare away a few of the other mongers that comes down here!
(AND remember, I did not vote for Christina and have no say in politic in this place so I have ZERO guilt. The majority of natives that support this insane politic in elections can take all that blame!)
StrangerI moved from BA to Miami in 2002, didn't want to get kidnapped down here. I think there is a worldwide global economic collapse unfolding and we're still in early stages.
If Cristina & her Comrades go full Commie like Chavez they will be stealing people's property and her thugs will even more blatant than now.
As for dress code I definately dress down here, hell I empty my wallet of US stuff back in Miami & leave all that stuff there. I don't do the scruffy look but no flashy watches, jewelry etc and I pretty much only have disposable stuff on me that I won't miss + 100P in the wallet just in case I get mugged so they leave me alone
Member #3320
07-26-12, 05:20
If I am lucky the crime will evan get so bad it scare away a few of the other mongers that comes down here!
StrangerLoved this particular statement. I pray for it too! .
HappyGoLucky
09-16-12, 06:56
http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2012/09/10/argentina-economic-outlook-deteriorating/
Morgando69
09-18-12, 19:17
Thanks for this. The great Christina and her idiotic cronys will however continue to stick 2 fingers up at the IMF and will merely accelerate stuffing their personal swiss bank accounts in preperation for the day they are thrown out.
BREAKING NEWS.
IMF to Put Argentina on Path Toward Censure Over Economic Data.
By Sandrine Rastello. Sep 18, 2012 12:00 PM PT.
Argentina is on track to be the first country ever censured by the International Monetary Fund for not sharing accurate data about inflation and the economy, according to a draft statement from the IMF.
The IMF's board of directors, meeting yesterday in Washington, decided to give the country until Dec. 17 to respond to concern about the quality of its official data, according to a draft statement obtained by Bloomberg. If the deadline is missed, the board can issue a declaration of censure, a warning that has never been used and which means sanctions may be applied if the concerns aren't addressed.
'The Executive Board regretted the lack of sufficient progress in implementing the remedial measures since its Feb. 1,2012, meeting and expressed to the authorities its concern that Argentina has not brought itself into compliance with its obligations under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, ' according to a draft statement obtained by Bloomberg. 'The Board called on Argentina to implement the measures without delay. '
The IMF's decision puts Argentina, a member of the Group of 20 nations, closer to sanctions that could eventually force President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's government into a 'compulsory withdrawal' from the 188-country institution.
IMF spokesman Raphael Anspach declined to comment on the draft statement and said an official press release is forthcoming.
G-20 Outlier.
Argentina is the only member of the G-20 that has refused to allow the IMF to do its annual review of the country's economy, a procedure known as an Article IV consultation. Fernandez's late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, accused the IMF of pushing the South America's second-biggest economy into a financial crisis that led it to default on $95 billion of bonds in 2001.
The IMF's move comes as public support for Fernandez dwindles in the face of 24 percent inflation, the fastest in the hemisphere, and growing frustration over crime and restrictions on dollar purchases. Demonstrators on Sept. 13 turned out in the streets of Buenos Aires in the biggest protests against Fernandez since 2008.
Fernandez's popularity fell to 30 percent in August from 64 percent in September 2011, the month before she was re-elected to a second term, according to an Aug. 11-21 survey by Buenos Aires-based Management & Fit.
Argentina's inflation data has been under question since 2007, when Kirchner began replacing personnel at the national statistics agency in a bid to 'improve operations. ' Last year the government fined more than a dozen researchers as much as 500, 000 pesos ($107, 000) each for reporting inflation rates that were higher than official data.
Opposition Reports.
To avoid fines, economists now share their research with opposition lawmakers, who release a monthly report based on the data. The September report said prices rose 24 percent in August from a year earlier. Two days later, the statistics agency said annual inflation was 10 percent.
Argentina has about $37. 6 billion of bonds tied to the official inflation index, which account for 21 percent of government debt, according to Barclays Plc. The government's decision to underestimate inflation has cost investors almost $7 billion in returns the past five years, according to ACM Consultores, which is run by former central bank manager Maximiliano Castillo.
According to IMF rules for countries that either fail to provide information or provide inaccurate information, a declaration of censure may follow several failed attempts to have the country that breached its obligations take remedial measures. Later steps can declare the country ineligible to use the fund's general resources and suspend its voting rights.
The board already met several times over the past few years to discuss Argentina's case and a technical team visited the country in 2011, leaving a report 'with specific recommendations on the design and methodology for developing a new national' consumer price index. In February, the board gave Argentina 180 days to address the quality of its inflation index and of its gross domestic product data.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Washington at srastello@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net
Going forward just index the link brother Sid. The long cut and pastes get kinda annoying. It also ties the forumn up with long posts. Just a suggestion. You got the information off the web, so just put the link in your post. My dos centavos. Toymann
Ignore or read and LEARN!Esteemed Sid and Toy sabres at dawn at Excedra!
P*ss on.
Jackpot
Esteemed Sid and Toy sabres at dawn at Excedra!
P*ss on.
JackpotDaddy and son disagreements make for a healthy relationship. Bet you never visited daddy at the monger retirement home. LOL. P*ss on yourself. We'll talk next week when I get back to BA. LOL. Happy Mongering All. Toymann.
Ps. We both know you are just stirring it up trouble maker. You must be bored. LMAO
Here is the link. http://www.dailywealth.com/2202/Crisis-Replay-Soon-Argentina-Will-Be-on-Sale-Again
You are just posting a reprint of an old article. Much easier just to post the link. Happy Mongering All. Toymann
ps. did you realize that this article was written by the editor of a reale estate magazine, LMAO.
Did you or others learn anything?You have sent this same article to me in the past via private email dude. I refer to this stuff as "Sidney Spam". LOL. But thanks for reminding me. LOL. Monger on Papi. Toymann
You have sent this same article to me in the past via private email dude. I refer to this stuff as "Sidney Spam". LOL. But thanks for reminding me. LOL. Monger on Papi. ToymannHell, I'd be happy if he would just learn to put the articles in the quote tags so I wouldn't have to do it myself.
Here's how to use the Quote tags.
Put this front of the text to be quoted:
Put this at the end of the text to be quoted:
It will appear like this as you compose your report:
Text to be quoted.
And it will be displayed like this:
Text to be quoted.Thanks,
Jackson
Hell, I'd be happy if he would just learn to put the articles in the quote tags so I wouldn't have to do it myself.
JacksonHell, I'd be happy if he just stuck his head up some Haitian hooker's ass and quit posting about BA, where he hasn't been in three years!
Sorry Sid, but you got that coming!
I for one can't wait to see if prices crash on condos. Either here or Brazil (once all the jobs are gone related to the World Cup and Olympics).
http://ferfal.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/gold-sale-banned-in-argentina.html?m=1
Can't let those pesky citizens protect themselves from rampant peso printing. Since it looks like Obama will win reelection, I better figure out a safe country to start moving assets into. Argentina, the country of pension plan theft and currency controls. Coming to a government near you.
TejanoLibre
09-22-12, 23:41
I for one can't wait to see if prices crash on condos. Either here or Brazil (once all the jobs are gone related to the World Cup and Olympics).Although the Olympics and the World Cup are HUGE cash generating events they should have a ZERO influence on Argentine real estate prices.
Both events are too short in duration and too far away.
Those reales will stay in Brazil.
After the events Argentina may experience a bit more Brazilian tourist but they will not be coming here to buy dirt.
TL
Although the Olympics and the World Cup are HUGE cash generating events they should have a ZERO influence on Argentine real estate prices.
Both events are too short in duration and too far away.
Those reales will stay in Brazil.
After the events Argentina may experience a bit more Brazilian tourist but they will not be coming here to buy dirt.
TLI was talking about prices for condos crashing here in BA or in Brazil. I wasn't talking about the events in brazil affecting prices here in BA, only in Brazil. That's why there was " (once all the jobs are gone related to the World Cup and Olympics)" after the word Brazil in my post.
Wonder when the chickas will start taking them?
Europe is not the only region to test Bitcoins. Last week, Simon Black reported that companies in Argentina are turning to Bitcoins to bypass recent draconian capital and market controls. Black features a car rental company that has not only begun accepting Bitcoins but are even offering discounts for doing so.
Black writes:
The 1-day rental rate for a basic car was 380 Argentine pesos. At the government's official rate, that works out to be $74 USD. In Bitcoins, the same car rents for 1.13 BTC... Which is approximately $54 USD. This is nearly 30% cheaper!
The benefit for the rental agency is the privacy; they can avoid all the costly fees, bureaucracy, and debilitating capital controls associated with a normal transaction. Plus, they can hold Bitcoins instead of the rapidly depreciating Argentine peso.
What's more, even entire nations are interested in using Bitcoins to get around trade restrictions. Bloomberg reported on how Iranians are using Bitcoins to get around sanctions:
http://www.activistpost.com/2013/03/cyprus-bank-raid-bitcoins.html
Seriously, Bitcoin appears to really be gaining strength and speed. This Cyprus theft, now followed by New Zealand, should give it quite a boost. Certainly worth education yourself about.
TC.
Wild Walleye
03-20-13, 13:12
Wonder when the chickas will start taking them?
Europe is not the only region to test Bitcoins. Last week, Simon Black reported that companies in Argentina are turning to Bitcoins to bypass recent draconian capital and market controls. Black features a car rental company that has not only begun accepting Bitcoins but are even offering discounts for doing so.
Black writes:
The 1-day rental rate for a basic car was 380 Argentine pesos. At the government's official rate, that works out to be $74 USD. In Bitcoins, the same car rents for 1.13 BTC... Which is approximately $54 USD. This is nearly 30% cheaper!
The benefit for the rental agency is the privacy; they can avoid all the costly fees, bureaucracy, and debilitating capital controls associated with a normal transaction. Plus, they can hold Bitcoins instead of the rapidly depreciating Argentine peso.
What's more, even entire nations are interested in using Bitcoins to get around trade restrictions. Bloomberg reported on how Iranians are using Bitcoins to get around sanctions:
http://www.activistpost.com/2013/03/cyprus-bank-raid-bitcoins.html
Seriously, Bitcoin appears to really be gaining strength and speed. This Cyprus theft, now followed by New Zealand, should give it quite a boost. Certainly worth education yourself about.
TC.Only a matter of time before CFK's hackers and the Senate go full-bore to block this end run on their sovereign right to fleece the populace.
That said, something like bitcoin has the most immediate potential to disintermediate (fancy way of saying 'get rid of the middleman') portions of the black/blue markets. That is because the early adopters will be primarily individuals and those for whom the marginal savings theoretically compensate them for their increased risk. The open-source nature (created by someone operating under a pseudonym) is going to face challenges from institutional players (many of whom could also be disintermediated (middleman is the preferred role of banks)) by this technology if it went main stream).
There is a company in the Pacific Northwest that has (IMO) a better mouse trap (compared to bitcoin) that they first showed me several years ago. It is far more robust, transparent and dollar-denominated which, better lends (no pun intended) itself to replacing portions of the global banking industry.
CFK lives is a bubble where she thinks because she is the President of Argentina that the US Courts have no power over her decisions. She is in for a very rude surprise for thumbing her nose at the Second Circuit Judges and her ministers basically telling the Court "we do not care how you rule we are not going to obey your orders". The US Courts are very powerful and there are treaties which bind other nations to enforce the decisions of the US Courts based on the doctrine of "Comity". Furthermore, the US government and all US institutions are bound by the final order of the US Court of Appeal. The Supreme Court will not hear the Argentine appeal from the Second Circuit. In other words, Argentina is fucked.
Yahoo News has a very good article today which is too long to excerpt. But, the gist is that Argentina is going to be forced to pay $1.5 billion plus interest or come to terms with its creditors or it will probably default on the new bonds, and will be foreclosed from the world capital markets for the foreseeable future causing further erosion of the Argentine economy. CFK's bubble is going to burst very soon. Any money Argentina has on deposit or is owed anywhere in the civilized world will be subject to seizure until the judgment is satisfied. China can only fund so much of the Argentine infrastructure development which is sorely needed and private foreign direct investment is drying up. Vale's withdrawal is just the first sign. Because of the position taken by the Argentine courts' with regard to the ridiculous Ecuadoran judgment against Chevron, Chevron will not move forward with development of the shale deposits and China, Russia or Brazil do not have the technology.
It will be an interesting few months here after the decision of the Second Circuit becomes final and her idiot sycophants try to explain to her why she has been checkmated. Thomas Jefferson as President had a run in with Chief Justice John Marshall early in our American history and lost which forever changed US History. CFK's bluster against the Second Circuit might have the same effect here and give the local jurists some backbone.
Silver Star
03-29-13, 20:14
CFK lives is a bubble where she thinks because she is the President of Argentina that the US Courts have no power over her decisions. She is in for a very rude surprise for thumbing her nose at the Second Circuit Judges and her ministers basically telling the Court "we do not care how you rule we are not going to obey your orders". The US Courts are very powerful and there are treaties which bind other nations to enforce the decisions of the US Courts based on the doctrine of "Comity". Furthermore, the US government and all US institutions are bound by the final order of the US Court of Appeal. The Supreme Court will not hear the Argentine appeal from the Second Circuit. In other words, Argentina is fucked.
Yahoo News has a very good article today which is too long to excerpt. But, the gist is that Argentina is going to be forced to pay $1.5 billion plus interest or come to terms with its creditors or it will probably default on the new bonds, and will be foreclosed from the world capital markets for the foreseeable future causing further erosion of the Argentine economy. CFK's bubble is going to burst very soon. Any money Argentina has on deposit or is owed anywhere in the civilized world will be subject to seizure until the judgment is satisfied. China can only fund so much of the Argentine infrastructure development which is sorely needed and private foreign direct investment is drying up. Vale's withdrawal is just the first sign. Because of the position taken by the Argentine courts' with regard to the ridiculous Ecuadoran judgment against Chevron, Chevron will not move forward with development of the shale deposits and China, Russia or Brazil do not have the technology.
It will be an interesting few months here after the decision of the Second Circuit becomes final and her idiot sycophants try to explain to her why she has been checkmated. Thomas Jefferson as President had a run in with Chief Justice John Marshall early in our American history and lost which forever changed US History. CFK's bluster against the Second Circuit might have the same effect here and give the local jurists some backbone.Awesome post! Why won't CFK take it in the chin, pay the 1.3 B (the Central Bank has 40 B right?) and be done with it and move on?
Nestor defaulted on $100 billion and forced the bond holders and other creditors of Argentina to renegotiate their obligations with Argentina. Nestor was dealing in a business and financial setting. CFK is dealing with the US judicial system which has very specific rules. Nestor could tell the bond holders this is the deal take it or leave it. The Argentine bonds were contracts and the full faith and credit of Argentina as well as its government assets were pledged by Argentina to get the lower interest rates. Argentina thereby became an ordinary borrower on some of its obligations which were subject to enforcement in US courts and applying general contract principles. Just because the bonds were issued by a governmental entity does not necessary change the character of the obligation. It depends on the contract language. On the debt subject to the US courts, Argentina is an ordinary contract debtor and subject to general contract law principles.
Two different games. Nestor was playing the negotiating poker game and won..sort-of. CFK is playing the legal game in the US courts which is way over her head and that of her local advisers. She wants to look as tough as Nester... But she is not playing poker... This real with real consequences for making mistakes. This is not political and all of her bluster and posturing makes absolutely no difference to the US courts and has the just the opposite effect. No politician tells a US Circuit Court Justice how he should rule or else... There is no or else. No one in the US government has the power to set aside the judgment of the Second Circuit no matter how nice it would be for foreign policy. CFK is truly powerless in this situation and she has yet to come to grips with this reality. She must do so very shortly.
FrankAndStein
03-30-13, 13:32
Clearly they are going to default, so I'm planning to hold off exchanging USD until after that announcement, should cause a nice panic in the streets, probably get 9 pesos plus instead of 8.0 where it was at cervino on Wednesday.
Thing is, even educated argentines will think that CFK is right, and that 'evil americans' are just trying to rip off Argentina.
So nuthin's going to change.
Argentina is truly an example of people getting the government they deserve.
The president and her band of clowns again demonstrate a complete inability to function in the real world outside of Argentina:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11883654/1/salmon-argentinas-desperate-exchange-proposal.html?puc=_btb_html_pla2&cm_ven=EMAIL_btb_html
The rest of the world are thieves and fools only the kirshnerites have a basic understanding of reality. Yes, in the past the first world has taken advantage of Argentina--there might be some thruth to that--see, confessions of an economic hit-man.
The current set of problems are still the aftermath of menem privatizing and selling off the country primarily to europeans.-in the USA bribery is a crime. Then menem stold all the proceeds and Argentina has not recovered 15 years later. Nestor and christina may not have made good decisions in terms of the international impact of policies that may have helped them politically in Argentina.
Argentina has isolated itself from the world financial system.
As long as the export prices of its agricultural commodities remains high it can successfully do so.
There is no love for Argentina in the world financial system. There is no realistic likelihood of it borrowing internationally so its government has adopted its scorched earth policy and is unlikely to change.
Its "bail in" of bondholders was realistic if not generous. They tried to make it work. With the idea of regaining access to financial markets.
They have failed to do so and it is politically sensible not to cave in the the New York Courts who can effectively do nothing except enforce Argentina's isolation.
Good luck to us all!
The agricultural wealth and good policy might fix the situation over a ten year period. Soy and corn will eventually correct down and move back-up again. Much of the third world is gaining wealth and will continue to upgrade it's food supply. This is a cycle with a general up-trend in grain prices will likely continue.
More people will eat animal protein which will require more grains. The Pompas Humidas is Argentina's gift from god. It is a shame that it is being squandered.
The Argentines are an amazing people. I will never understand their passivity in accepting the political class that runs their nation.
Technical default:
"the Court has already made it quite clear that it will not "force" the plaintiffs to "accept a restructuring." October 26 decision at 26 fn.
What the court asked for 1 March: http://www.shearman.com/files/Publication/7d27b776-bdb9-4a65-8983-3a97ca57502e/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/88f5f8ef-89ef-4495-b131-41a0ee383f28/Dont-Cry-for-Me-Argentine-Bondholders-Second-Circuit-Requests-a-Payment-Proposal-LIT-03011.pdf.
BlueFalcon
04-02-13, 20:18
Corn took a 13% dump over a couple of days. It was impressive, even moreso be / see it still can be identified after it's dump. Copper and Silver have been monkeyhammered over the past few days as well. This doesn't bode well for Argentina's Pac Rim Andean neighbors.
'Corn Enters Bear Market on Signs of Ample Supply in USA.
By Tony see. Dreibus & Katia Dmitrieva. Apr 1, 2013 1:04 PM PT.
Corn plunged the most in 24 years, entering a bear market, as bigger-than-expected USA Stockpiles and increased planting signal ample supplies. Wheat tumbled to a nine-month low and soybeans dropped. ' . Bloomberg.
Wild Walleye
04-04-13, 13:28
We are two cockeyed optimists.
The agricultural wealthAnd natural resources (the ones the Brazilians don't already own).
and good policy might fix the situation over a ten year period.And the last time this happened in Argentina was?
Soy and corn will eventually correct down and move back-up again. Much of the third world is gaining wealth and will continue to upgrade it's food supply. This is a cycle with a general up-trend in grain prices will likely continue.The prices of these ag products are heavily influenced by fuel costs. Given the slack in global demand for fuel, driven by the bleak prospects for economic growth, should have resulted in reduced fuel prices thus driving basic ag products down (good for the little people and exporters). This (cheap fuel) is part of the "spark" that helps to generate economic recoveries under 'normal' circumstances. However, in this protracted 5-year depression, we have had considerable doubt cast upon the future supply of fossil fuels, therefore the anticipated cheap fuel never arrived.
More people will eat animal protein which will require more grains. The Pompas Humidas is Argentina's gift from god. It is a shame that it is being squandered.They have always had f-ed up policies that deny local producers the ability to export their products (beer, wine, beef, etc) in pursuit of the highest prices and have been forced to sell production locally at lower prices.
The Argentines are an amazing people. I will never understand their passivity in accepting the political class that runs their nation.We've discussed this before. It must be some form of Stockholm Syndrome.
All the best to you, Bob!
Profits could turn this place around in 10 to 20 years. The agricultural wealth is real and the policies which push away capital investments are a stone wall to progress. This place in a major importer of potash, yet it has some of the largest potash reserves in the world. Odd, but true. No one wants to make the investments needed.
Getting away from anything that has to do with business, there few argentines who I know well and truly consider friends, are wonderful people who value friendship far more than it is generally valued in the culture in the good old USA. On friends day--that exists all over the world except in the USA--I get emails from all sorts of argentines I have done favors for in the past.
The people are a a good lot. Anything that has to do with making money in BA tends to be stilted and warped.
Member #4112
04-09-13, 17:49
WW, Argentina was very prosperous before, during and just after WWII. They were selling agricultural productions to both England and Germany during the war and making a killing. When they built the Colon, Germany provided all the electronics to make it the largest most advanced opera house in the world at that time. I want to say the British build and owned the rail road. Argentina was thought of as a major power in the world at that time.
The country and most notably the military was split between the Allies and Axis but leaned toward Germany. Argentina remained neutral until nearly the end of the war, when it became obvious the Allies would win, Argentina declared war on Germany, Italy was already out of the war then.
Fact or fiction?
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A//www.iprofesional.com/notas/157324-La-cruda-realidad-de-los-sojeros-venden-un-dlar-les-dan-39-centavos-y-deben-pagar-casi-80-de-impuestos&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/157324-La-cruda-realidad-de-los-sojeros-venden-un-dlar-les-dan-39-centavos-y-deben-pagar-casi-80-de-impuestos
Below is a link to an excellent article about the nationalization of YPF.- One year later.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/argentina-nationalized-oil-industry-nothing-232525794.html
Tres3.
They should try capitalism, the real thing not the mixed economy we have in the USA.
Don B.
TejanoLibre
04-20-13, 20:42
Argentina is getting good at defaulting!
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11855729/1/salmon-why-argentina-will-default-in-2013.html
Here we go again!
TL.
Below is a link to an excellent article about the nationalization of YPF.- One year later.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/argentina-nationalized-oil-industry-nothing-232525794.html
Tres3.In discussing why Argentina was having a hard time getting new foreign investments, I had to laugh when the writer of the article noted that when Chinese and Russian companies "are complaining about the lack of legal guarantees, you know you have a problem.
Tijuana Brass
04-25-13, 16:21
Posted today on youtube is a 2 and one-half minute "interview" of the Finance Minister. The interview is mostly in Spanish but you don't need fluency to understand his reactions. That minister's reaction tells me that there will be opportunities in the not-so-far-off future to purchase land, farms or classic cars.
Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EkHGLkCYnMY
Text to search in case link doesn't work: #MeQuieroIr #Lorenzino EN ESPANOL [OFICIAL]
Dark-haired women is not the only attractive aspect of Argentina.
Wild Walleye
04-27-13, 03:18
It is comical to see these douche bags finally run away from the mic when they know that their opportunity to play the Wizard of Oz is over.
"Everything is fine. Nothing to worry about, here. The blue rate is only rapidly approaching 10 due to speculators and other unsavory, subhuman parasites. We've done everything correctly. It is only that the world hasn't responded to our actions that has prevented us from visiting Utopia."
Actually shows me just how incompetent and naive are the people who run Argentina.
Any US politician could handle such a question easily, obfuscate effectively and look the camera straight in the eye.
It is comical to see these douche bags finally run away from the mic when they know that their opportunity to play the Wizard of Oz is over.
"Everything is fine. Nothing to worry about, here. The blue rate is only rapidly approaching 10 due to speculators and other unsavory, subhuman parasites. We've done everything correctly. It is only that the world hasn't responded to our actions that has prevented us from visiting Utopia."
Actually shows me just how incompetent and naive are the people who run Argentina.
Any US politician could handle such a question easily, obfuscate effectively and look the camera straight in the eye.How about Bernanke being cornered by Ron Paul on inflation? I think they are a couple of videos on You Tube about that.
Always something to learn Sir!
Argentine Economy, I give it 6 months or less.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/heres-why-argentina-must-be-dollarized-now.html/?ref=YF
Exon.
A snippet from an interesting article about the Argentine economy, politics, and culture:
Argentina is really two different countries. First, there is Buenos Aires, which is a big city and contains by far the largest percentage of the country's population. In BA there is a bit of crime, and in certain parts of the city you are going to have more crime, but generally speaking, you would be surprised to know that you were in the beating heart of a crisis. Restaurants are full; the stores are open and full of very nice stuff. Second, there are the provinces, which are mostly rural and agriculturally oriented. Here the central government's authority is weak, and the people are relaxed. The quality of life is tremendous. This is not just the case for Americans, or people who are non-peso based; it's pretty much for everyone. Food in a place like Cafayate, where we live, is so cheap it's almost free. You can walk out of a store with a huge bag of fresh produce and it's going to set you back only a few bucks. A kilo of fine tenderloin will cost you maybe five dollars. Back here in the US a couple of days ago I paid $22 for less than a pound of steak. Then there's the cost of labor. In Argentina, we have an extremely competent maid who comes in for five hours a day, five days a week and does all the cleaning and laundry – drudge work that people in the Western world have learned to view as an unavoidable part of life – and the cost is all of about $40 a week.
So, despite the overarching reality that the government is dysfunctional and that this is currently being evidenced in the inflation, the quality of life in Argentina for anyone with a few bucks is very, very high.
The full article is at:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1370453660.php
A snippet from an interesting article about the Argentine economy, politics, and culture:
Argentina is really two different countries. First, there is Buenos Aires, which is a big city and contains by far the largest percentage of the country's population. In BA there is a bit of crime, and in certain parts of the city you are going to have more crime, but generally speaking, you would be surprised to know that you were in the beating heart of a crisis. Restaurants are full; the stores are open and full of very nice stuff. Second, there are the provinces, which are mostly rural and agriculturally oriented. Here the central government's authority is weak, and the people are relaxed. The quality of life is tremendous. This is not just the case for Americans, or people who are non-peso based; it's pretty much for everyone. Food in a place like Cafayate, where we live, is so cheap it's almost free. You can walk out of a store with a huge bag of fresh produce and it's going to set you back only a few bucks. A kilo of fine tenderloin will cost you maybe five dollars. Back here in the US a couple of days ago I paid $22 for less than a pound of steak. Then there's the cost of labor. In Argentina, we have an extremely competent maid who comes in for five hours a day, five days a week and does all the cleaning and laundry – drudge work that people in the Western world have learned to view as an unavoidable part of life – and the cost is all of about $40 a week.
So, despite the overarching reality that the government is dysfunctional and that this is currently being evidenced in the inflation, the quality of life in Argentina for anyone with a few bucks is very, very high.
The full article is at:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1370453660.phpYou seem to be in a time warp. Prices seem to be cheaper in the states for far superior products then here in Argentina! If you live on the west coast you get produce from Chile in the winter, just like we do here. Why does it cost twice as much here compared to California and Nevada? Why do the people in the states receive nice fresh produce and here its old and ready to throw away? I'm glad you found a competent maid. Most labor here is incompetent! That and it is no longer cheap! Five years ago you could pay a brick layer 75 pesos a day, now they want over 300! Then they build a wall that looks like a snake! A house in a nice area here is valued at twice what it would cost in the US (excluding areas like downtown Boston, new York, etc). And at least the house in the US would not blow away in a small storm! Argentina is a nice country, it has a lot of potential. But the government and most of its inhabitants need to pull their heads out of their a $$es and get a grip on the real world and not in this fantasy world where they believe that Argentina is among the best of the best!
100% in agreement with absolutely EVERYTHING that Gandolf says!
Apparently Argentina is 3 different countries. BA, the provinces and the fairytale land where the guy in that article lives!
Having said that, I read the whole article and the guy is pretty much spot on with the rest of his assessments:
A good way to think about Argentina is that it is an immigrant society, very much like the US, except that the dominating culture emerging from the melting pot was Italian. This is why Argentines tend to be famous for their dark good looks, vibrant culture, and excellent food. Unfortunately, they also inherited "Italian style" politics. I think that's a useful context for understanding the consistent dysfunctioning of the Argentine government.
This at least partially explains Argentina's long love affair with the Peróns. The country had one of the most successful economies in the world until Juan Peróand came into power and destroyed it. And, with some rare bright spots, it's gone through long periods of financial crisis ever since. Despite that, the Perónistas are still very much in charge.
If you look at the history of financial crises in Argentina, you will see there is almost no 10-year period when there isn't a financial crisis. As a result, the population has become extremely resilient in the face of financial crises. When you mention the faltering state of the economy, every Argentine you talk to will shrug and make a comment along the lines of, "No problem; this is Argentina, we're used to it." In other words, they have become fatalistic about such things.
But that doesn't mean they are complacent, because thanks to their long experiences with financial crises Argentines have become masters at dealing with things like inflation and ridiculous government policies. For the most part, the government is highly ineffective, and so the Argentines just ignore it. Reasonably intelligent people always figure out ways to work around whatever the latest decree the government comes up with, then they tell their family members and friends. The word spreads so that in no time at all, the populace at large has figured out how to deal with the government's latest misstep, as often as not turning it to their personal advantage. As a consequence, there is a very robust underground economy; if people can do business off the books, they do. Argentines pride themselves on their ability to outsmart the government."
"The current Argentine government is dominated by true believers – young people who have that idealistic notion of equality for all, and who believe that government mandates can fix anything that ails. They are hardcore socialists, leaning towards communism. But, as is the case in the United States, they really don't know what they are doing and so pursue policies that are incredibly shortsighted. They are uninformed as far as history and economics are concerned and blunder from one harebrained policy to another. There is literally nothing that they will not try.
It is like a textbook case in government gone mad.
They have stolen the retirement accounts, devalued the currency, and put capital controls in place. There are trade controls so that people can't import necessities into the country, but instead, have to manufacture them locally, with the government giving monopolies to their friends. They have price controls, which force the local supermarkets to not raise their prices. This will ultimately lead to shortages. And there are already shortages of certain items. They didn't like an opposition newspaper, so they nationalized the newsprint manufacturing industry. In fact, just about every single thing that you could do to screw up a country, they have done. It is comical to see the extremes they have gone to. For example, in Argentina, if you publish an inflation statistic that differs from of the official government numbers, you could be hit with a $100,000 fine. I had never heard of this anywhere else – except maybe in communist Russia. They are really completely out of control and the country is spinning off into la-la-land.
DaveW & Gandolf50, the article was written by a member of Casey Research. They own property in Argentina and pimp Argentina to their readers. I wouldn't take their word on Argentina or any other investment. Overseas investment, overseas living and regular travel writers all seem to follow the same methodology. They write fantasy to sell the dream. Facts would be detrimental to their bottom line.
They write fantasy to sell the dream. Facts would be detrimental to their bottom line.They fit right in here then! Thats sort of what Cristina and Moreno do all day every day!
Lotsa news:
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/145585/big-economic-changes-on-the-way
Big Boss Man
11-20-13, 11:38
From a November 2012 to November 2013 perspective, streets are cleaner. Restaurants are full on weekday nights. Daddy Rulz has introduced me to two restaurants that have opened in the past year. Big construction projects in Downtown with streets shutdown.
AllIWantIsLove
11-21-13, 03:33
Can someone here explain these sentences from the article Doggboy's link pointed to?
Economists agree that through circumstances, tourism is one of the major causes of the drop in reserves, a problem that. Could be solved by implementing a tourism dollar rate. The existence of a black market entices tourists to change their dollars. At higher rates, with most of that money not entering Argentina's economy.
The sentences seems to be about me, because certainly I use the black market for the higher exchange rate. But then there is that remark saying that those pesos I receive do not enter the Argentine economy. I don't get that. Every peso I receive I spend in Argentina. They sure aren't any good anyplace else. I leave many dollars here. Why is it my fault that there's a drop in Argentina's reserves?
Bob.
Daddy Rulz
11-21-13, 12:48
Can someone here explain these sentences from the article Doggboy's link pointed to?
Economists agree that through circumstances, tourism is one of the major causes of the drop in reserves, a problem that. Could be solved by implementing a tourism dollar rate. The existence of a black market entices tourists to change their dollars. At higher rates, with most of that money not entering Argentina's economy.
The sentences seems to be about me, because certainly I use the black market for the higher exchange rate. But then there is that remark saying that those pesos I receive do not enter the Argentine economy. I don't get that. Every peso I receive I spend in Argentina. They sure aren't any good anyplace else. I leave many dollars here. Why is it my fault that there's a drop in Argentina's reserves?
Bob.That it wasn't entering through the government reserves. It's obviously entering the economy but because 2 out of three people aren't Stupid enough to buy their pesos at the official rate then the Argentine Government is missing 66% of their opportunity to steal 40% of the value off the top of the tourist dollars.
Could be solved by implementing a tourism dollar rate.
A tourism rate might work in a predominantly honest country. Argentina, on the other hand, has so much corruption and dishonesty that all a tourist rate would do is give another avenue of corruption, dishonesty, and thievery.
Tres3.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/145916/cristina's-last-stand.
Stranger.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/145916/cristina's-last-stand.
Stranger.Good article. I laughed my ass off at the opening sentence...
"Cristina’s economic “model”... was put together by a bunch of cranks devoted to the writings of long-dead polemicists who did their best to make out that Argentina was the innocent victim of wicked Anglo-Saxon imperialists who, for their own nasty purposes, prevented it from becoming the industrial powerhouse God had intended."
Thanks,
Jax.
Too bad that Argentina didn't learn more from the Anglo-Saxon imperialists. Here are some quotes from an essay / book by Daniel Hanna, "Inventing Freedom: How the English-Speaking Peoples Made the Modern World." He has some lessons for the USA, as well as countries like Argentina.
Outside North America, most of the Anglosphere is an extended archipelago: Great Britain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, the more democratic Caribbean states. What made the Anglosphere different? Foreign visitors through the centuries remarked on a number of peculiar characteristics. They wondered at the stubborn elevation of private property over raison d'état, of personal freedom over collective need.
British exceptionalism, like its American cousin, has traditionally been held to reside in a series of values and institutions: personal liberty, free contract, jury trials, uncensored newspapers, regular elections, habeas corpus, open competition, secure property, religious pluralism.
The conceit of our era is to assume that these ideals are somehow the natural condition of an advanced society—that all nations will get around to them once they become rich enough and educated enough. In fact, these ideals were developed overwhelmingly in the language in which you are reading these words. You don't have to go back very far to find a time when freedom under the law was more or less confined to the Anglosphere: the community of English-speaking democracies.
Freedom under the law is a portable commodity, passed on through intellectual exchange rather than gene flow. Anyone can benefit from constitutional liberty simply by adopting the right institutions and the cultural assumptions that go with them. The Anglosphere is why Bermuda is not Haiti, why Singapore is not Indonesia, why Hong Kong is not China—and, for that matter, not Macau. As the distinguished Indian writer Madhav Das Nalapat, holder of the Unesco Peace Chair, puts it, the Anglosphere is defined not by racial affinity but "by the blood of the mind."
There is, of course, a flip-side. If the U.S. abandons its political structures, it will lose its identity more thoroughly than states that define nationality by blood or territory. Power is shifting from the 50 states to Washington, D.C., from elected representatives to federal bureaucrats, from citizens to the government. As the U.S. moves toward European-style health care, day care, college education, carbon taxes, foreign policy and spending levels, so it becomes less prosperous, less confident and less free.
Which brings us back to Mr. Obama's curiously qualified defense of American exceptionalism. Outside the Anglosphere, people have traditionally expected—indeed, demanded—far more state intervention. They look to the government to solve their problems, and when the government fails, they become petulant.
That is the point that much of Europe has reached now. Greeks, like many Europeans, spent decades increasing their consumption without increasing their production. They voted for politicians who promised to keep the good times going and rejected those who argued for fiscal restraint. Even now, as the calamity overwhelms them, they refuse to take responsibility for their own affairs by leaving the euro and running their own economy. It's what happens when an electorate is systematically infantilized.
Too bad that Argentina didn't learn more from the Anglo-Saxon imperialists. Here are some quotes from an essay / book by Daniel Hanna, "Inventing Freedom: How the English-Speaking Peoples Made the Modern World." He has some lessons for the USA, as well as countries like Argentina.
There is, of course, a flip-side. If the U.S. abandons its political structures, it will lose its identity more thoroughly than states that define nationality by blood or territory. Power is shifting from the 50 states to Washington, D.C., from elected representatives to federal bureaucrats, from citizens to the government. As the U.S. moves toward European-style health care, day care, college education, carbon taxes, foreign policy and spending levels, so it becomes less prosperous, less confident and less free.
Which brings us back to Mr. Obama's curiously qualified defense of American exceptionalism. Outside the Anglosphere, people have traditionally expected—indeed, demanded—far more state intervention. They look to the government to solve their problems, and when the government fails, they become petulant.
That is the point that much of Europe has reached now. Greeks, like many Europeans, spent decades increasing their consumption without increasing their production. They voted for politicians who promised to keep the good times going and rejected those who argued for fiscal restraint. Even now, as the calamity overwhelms them, they refuse to take responsibility for their own affairs by leaving the euro and running their own economy. It's what happens when an electorate is systematically infantilized.[/I]
Yes, Britain and America have taught the world a lot about democracy and prosperity. Yes, Argentina wastes its considerable resources. But why focus on the Greeks in Europe? The fact is that Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland are currently more free and are growing more rapidly in terms of prosperity than the United States. All of these countries, whether they use the Euro or not, provide excellent government-sponsored health care, day care, and college education. Denmark, a country without oil, is carbon neutral at this point and provides a model of sustainability for future generations. People in these countries pay taxes and they get a prosperous society with little violence in return. Private enterprise is rewarded and appreciated. Rich people do well, but so do the working classes. The naivete of so-called libertarianism is properly rejected as infantile selfishness. I did want to get your word infantile in there.
The northern Europeans have much to teach the U. S. at this point in history. Why is it that so many Americans reject plain facts in favor of outdated ideology? There's a whole real world out there beyond standard U. S. talk radio propaganda.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/149364/us-top-court-agrees-to-hear-argentina-bank-subpoenas-case (Buenos Aires Herald)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-10/argentina-gets-u-s-supreme-court-hearing-in-bank-case.html (Bloomberg)
The SCOTUS agrees to hear the Argentina Bank Subpoena case. .
Flexible Horn
01-22-14, 01:54
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25836208
50% tax, seems excessive. I think guys coming there could bring a few items to resell.
For years I have touted the virtues of Montevideo. After many trips to MVD I found the food was good the hotels and apartments inexpensive and of course the p4 p as inexpensive and worth the price. OK things have changed. Recently I was in MVD for a week. Prices have gone up. Everything has gone up. After my week comitment I took the ferry to BA. I rented an apartment in Palermo and the food in that area was much better than I had remembered. I indulged in the p4 p twice and it was cheaper and better that I can remember...OK I am planning a return to BA in February. A few more trips and I may move here..
REGARDS THE HOTROD.
Daddy Rulz
01-27-14, 13:28
Anybody can buy up to 2000 dollars a month for savings so long as you earn more than 7200 pesos per month. And if you don't deposit them in a bank (remember 2001) you pay a 20% surcharge.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/150681/government-unveils-details-of-its-plan-to-allow-dollar-sales-for-savings-
Where to start?
Our currency sucks so bad we understand you want to save in another.
Sure you can buy them just apply here. (no not you, nor you, or you, nope not you either).
Trust us, you can put this in the bank..
I probably should have posted this in the "Weird Argie Things" thread, it's nothing but smoke and mirrors.
Anybody can buy up to 2000 dollars a month for savings so long as you earn more than 7200 pesos per month. And if you don't deposit them in a bank (remember 2001) you pay a 20% surcharge.Any idea if you'd be able to withdraw USD paper money from your account? It sounds like it might be 2001 in reverse -- you pay 12 pesos for your dollars, deposit them to the bank, then when you go to withdraw you get 8 pesos.
I suspect this is a ploy, part of the plan for the central bank to get more foreign reserves to try to prevent a currency free fall and even higher inflation. Somehow Ms. Kirchner is going to get her hands on those dollars.
On Wednesday, when her speech was carried live by all television channels in a national broadcast, President Fernández de Kirchner spoke to announce a plan to grant subsidies of 600 pesos a month to 1.5 million destitute 18-24 year-old youths.
Her announcement raises two questions:
1. Where exactly is she going to get the money? Perhaps from the magical "Subsidy Fairy"?
2. Can anyone tell me again exactly how I will "benefit enormously" from this "trickle up" subsidy?
It's sad to watch liberal politicians as they start to sound like aging athletes who just can't accept that they're policies have failed as they continue to promise even more free money in exchange for votes.
Very sad.
Thanks,
Jax.
Daddy Rulz
01-27-14, 16:28
Any idea if you'd be able to withdraw USD paper money from your account? It sounds like it might be 2001 in reverse -- you pay 12 pesos for your dollars, deposit them to the bank, then when you go to withdraw you get 8 pesos.
I suspect this is a ploy, part of the plan for the central bank to get more foreign reserves to try to prevent a currency free fall and even higher inflation. Somehow Ms. Kirchner is going to get her hands on those dollars.It's a sham, unless you're connected you won't get the approval to make the purchase in the first place. A friend of mine satisfies the purchase requirements for people going on vacation but when she applied to buy the dollars for a trip the request was denied. No reason, just declined. I think this is a story to try and calm the markets. I don't think they (official cambios) could sell at the blue rate, they would have to sell at the Official rate. Though who the hell knows, as fucked up as they are here, maybe they might try and pull that off. You could have a buy / sell rate for ripping off tourists, and an "official" rate for Argentines buying dollars under this program that would match the blue rate. Now that I think about it, I could actually see this government trying to pull that off.
They sure as hell aren't going to let people buy dollars at the official rate of 8, then let them sell them for 12 just to hit them with a 20% penalty which would put their actual cost at 9.6. They don't have the reserves to sell the amount of dollars for the number of people that would "technically" qualify to purchase them.
There isn't an Argie alive that would put those dollars in an Argentine bank after what happened in 2001.
That is modeling it's policies on Venezuela where those same policies failed. I heard this this morning. Shudder!
That is modeling it's policies on Venezuela where those same policies failed. I heard this this morning. Shudder!If you look at what they have been doing, its almost identical! Right down to micro managing every thing and multiple exchange rates. Help the poor and f $ck the working class. Shortages? They have been starting here. Try and get parts for a imported car or washing machine! Try and buy anything but a Argie crap 5 or 6 kilo washing machine today? Nothing else is available! The public hospitals have been turning away people because they have no money to buy the little items.. Like drugs, gauze, detergent to wash their sheets etc. Most public buildings (schools, hospitals, etc). Are way behind in paying utility bills and several have been shut off in the past year. One could go on and on but it just confirms what we all know. Argieland and Chavezville too for that matter is falling into that big black hole of insolvency.
An interesting editorial observation from James Neilson in today's Buenos Aries Herald.
They (Cristina's opposition strategists) also fear the economy is cracking up. But they are in no hurry to speed Cristina’s departure. Though the lady herself likes to accuse the opposition of plotting her downfall, many alleged coup-mongers say they are determined to make her stay in office until the entire economy has collapsed so there can be no doubt as to who was responsible for the disaster. Of course, that is not the only reason. They all know perfectly well that Cristina’s successor will have to apply an extremely painful austerity programme. While interim president, Eduardo Duhalde managed to get away with one (painful austerity programme) because it was generally agreed that he was not to blame for the mess the country found itself in. Opposition hopefuls want to be given the same leeway even though, for that to happen, Argentina’s economy would have to go into meltdown with Cristina still in the Pink House and not, as Kirchnerites would presumably prefer, several weeks after she decided that enough is enough and her compatriots no longer deserved to be ruled by her.
TejanoLibre
01-28-14, 11:57
Tuesday, January 28,2014.
Some predict peso could devaluate 55% in 2014.
The peso could reach a trading value of US $9.80 by December 2014, representing a 55-percent annual jump, the local forecasting firm Econométrica predicted yesterday, while US credit-rating agency Moody's put the figure at 50 percent and predicted inflation would reach 30 percent during 2014.
"The BCRA (Central Bank) showed in January it had no intention of freezing the exchange rate so as to not expose its reserves, just like (it had no intention) of letting rates rise so the parallel (dollar) wouldn't jump," Econométrica's monthly report by economist Ramiro Castiñeira suggested. This consultancy was created by José María Dagnino Pastore, who later became an official of the last military dictatorship.
It estimated that by the end of the year the peso would scratch the US $10-mark with a 55 percent jump in its continual devaluation to close at US $9.80, with Moody's Investor Service in in a research note to investors putting its devaluation predictions for Argentina closer to 50 percent for 2014.
The Econométrica report took aim at the national administration's subsidy programme, claiming "the logic of ignoring, for so many years, the deterioration of the electric grid, covering it up with subsidies so reality doesn't hit consumers' pockets, took the fiscal surplus as its victim.".
The rapid depreciation has raised credit risks for banks, insurers and companies with foreign debts, analysts from Moody's Investors Service warned.
"It remains unclear what policies the government plans to pursue to address the underlying causes of capital flight, curb inflation and restore investor confidence," the ratings agency added in a news statement. "Hence, Argentina's credit quality will likely continue to face negative pressure.".
Moody's forecast that price pressures from imports would push inflation upward to over 30 percent in 2014, from what is already one of the world's highest inflation rates.
Meanwhile, the agency gave its reasoning for devaluation as a result of government inaction in reducing deficit. "The devaluation emerges as a direct consequence of a lack of funding to maintain the overvalued exchange rate," Castiñeira's report continued, adding the government's current objective is to remedy the fiscal and external deficits.
"The devaluation that the government tried to avoid all these years and which in 2014 emerged because of its unaffordability, certainly seeks to liquefy general consumption and public spending, in particular so as to reduce accumulated deficits (fiscal and external), of course at the cost of a recessionary year.".
Moody's made a similar analysis, suggesting that while devaluation was a normal measure taken by governments to decrease the outflow of reserves, in this case it was "unlikely" pressure on reserves would diminish.
"Although the devaluation may temporarily stem the pressure on foreign currency reserves, it remains unclear what policies the government plans to pursue to address the underlying causes of capital flight, curb inflation and restore investor confidence," said Moody's in the news statement yesterday.
Some predict peso could devaluate 55% in 2014.
The peso could reach a trading value of US $9.80 by December 2014, representing a 55-percent annual jump, the local forecasting firm Econométrica predicted yesterday, while US credit-rating agency Moody's put the figure at 50 percent and predicted inflation would reach 30 percent during 2014.
"The BCRA (Central Bank) showed in January it had no intention of freezing the exchange rate so as to not expose its reserves, just like (it had no intention) of letting rates rise so the parallel (dollar) wouldn't jump," Econométrica's monthly report by economist Ramiro Castiñeira suggested. This consultancy was created by José María Dagnino Pastore, who later became an official of the last military dictatorship.
It estimated that by the end of the year the peso would scratch the US $10-mark with a 55 percent jump in its continual devaluation to close at US $9.80, with Moody's Investor Service in in a research note to investors putting its devaluation predictions for Argentina closer to 50 percent for 2014.
The Econométrica report took aim at the national administration's subsidy programme, claiming "the logic of ignoring, for so many years, the deterioration of the electric grid, covering it up with subsidies so reality doesn't hit consumers' pockets, took the fiscal surplus as its victim.".
The bid / ask for the one year forward contract is 11.50/12.50. In other words, the forex market, composed of hedgers and speculators, predicts the official rate will be 12 pesos / dollar in a year.
Argentina has perfected the art of the slow motion train wreck.
DrakeCapital
02-01-14, 20:39
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless
BlueFalcon
02-01-14, 21:17
JAJAJA DrakeCapital...just forwarded that ZH link to my industry peeps...we, over the years have done a lot of business with Argentine companies...it is just too damn difficult today. I just hope the chicas will hold the line on $ARS prices this year.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless
My contribution to the thread:
"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.
Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.
Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.
It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.
Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.
Ciao.".
On Wednesday, when her speech was carried live by all television channels in a national broadcast, President Fernández de Kirchner spoke to announce a plan to grant subsidies of 600 pesos a month to 1.5 million destitute 18-24 year-old youths.
Her announcement raises two questions:
1. Where exactly is she going to get the money? Perhaps from the magical "Subsidy Fairy"?
2. Can anyone tell me again exactly how I will "benefit enormously" from this "trickle up" subsidy?
It's sad to watch liberal politicians as they start to sound like aging athletes who just can't accept that they're policies have failed as they continue to promise even more free money in exchange for votes.
Very sad.
Thanks,
Jax.1/ By printing paper, just like in the US and Japan. The difference is that the ARS is not an international currency with a privileged reserve status, so ...
2/ you ll benefit by getting more fiat peso for your fiat dollar.
Empanadas para todos or a house for everybody, the second populist stance is just more ambitious...which resulted in more serious global consequences.
Thomaso276
02-02-14, 14:17
My contribution to the thread:
"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.
Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.
Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.
It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.
Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.
Ciao.".This is all Pagina 12 crap.
BlueFalcon
02-09-14, 19:21
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-09/heres-what-it-looks-when-your-countrys-economy-collapses
BF.
One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline
The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709
One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline
The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709What kind of bullshit is this!
Everybody KNOWS that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.
Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.Thanks,
Jax
What kind of bullshit is this!
Everybody KNOWS that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.
Thanks,
Jax
Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.
I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.
There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.
If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.
Big Boss Man
02-20-14, 00:58
"The Argentines remain perhaps the best-looking people on the planet." If you sit with Joe23 and Stranger at Exedra on a warm summer day you might tend to agree with "The Economist." Hey maybe there is something to bad economics. I mean Brian Wilson sang about "California Girls".
Rock Harders
02-21-14, 03:17
I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.
There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.
If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.
According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.You kind of changed the subject. Before you actually asserted "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".
If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of corruption and rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.
What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA is that the regulatory and tax burdens have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples, but this post is long enough already.
You kind of changed the subject. Before you said "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".
If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.
What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA Since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA Is that the regulatory and tax burden have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples.For those who can think. What is the ultimate conclusion of the regulatory state?
Don.
For those who can think. What is the ultimate conclusion of the regulatory state?
Don.Is it what Rock Harders has accused us of promoting? Fascism and the economic ideology behind it, neo-corporatism?
Rock Harders
02-21-14, 20:37
You kind of changed the subject. Before you actually asserted "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".
If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of corruption and rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.
What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA is that the regulatory and tax burdens have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples, but this post is long enough already.Use Forbes list if it suits you better; the USA is 14th and Argentina is 107th; still not even remotely comparable. If you want to make a legitimate comparison of a country that you don't want the USA to become you could use France, for example. It could be argued that the alleged movement in the USA toward "socialist" policies and regulations could cause the USA's economy to become stagnant and business unfriendly, which is how many people view France today. The United States and France are legitimately comparable for reasons so obvious I don't need to bother listing them here; The United States and Argentina are not.
If you want to make a legitimate comparison of a country that you don't want the USA to become you could use France, for example. It could be argued that the alleged movement in the USA toward "socialist" policies and regulations could cause the USA's economy to become stagnant and business unfriendly, which is how many people view France today. The United States and France are legitimately comparable for reasons so obvious I don't need to bother listing them here I agree with what you wrote above. We may not have an argument, except that you're trying to compare the United States and Argentina and I'm trying to compare the Kirchner's and Obama.
We rode a taxi to Florida today and the driver was listening to Kirchners speech. On the way back, I tried to get two taxi's to take us to our apartment on Rivadavia and Uriburu and they were both rude and said they could not take us. I know there was demonstrating at Congreso but that is four blocks from Uriburu and they could have gone all the way up Cordoba to Junin but both refused. Was she saying stuff against the US? These guys weren't friendly at all and was wondering if it was because we are Americans. We finally asked a driver to take us to Corrientes and Junin and when we got there asked him to continue on to Rivadavia and he said no way so we had to walk 6 blocks with my handicapped foot. Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.
Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.Christina gave her annual constitutionally mandated "State of the Union" speach before Congress today. Ave 9 de Julio was filled with the busses that transported her supporters to the Plaza de Mayo to demostrate on her behalf. As a consequence, many streets in and near Congreso were blocked by the police, and Ave 9 de Julio was a traffic jam, given that several hundred busses had parked in the traffic lanes.
Coincidentally, I was riding down Ave 9 de Julio in a taxi with a driver who kept turning the radio on and off waiting for her speach to end, all the while telling me that he couldn't stand to listen to any more of her lies.
Thanks,
Jax.
Silver Star
03-01-14, 22:13
We rode a taxi to Florida today and the driver was listening to Kirchners speech. On the way back, I tried to get two taxi's to take us to our apartment on Rivadavia and Uriburu and they were both rude and said they could not take us. I know there was demonstrating at Congreso but that is four blocks from Uriburu and they could have gone all the way up Cordoba to Junin but both refused. Was she saying stuff against the US? These guys weren't friendly at all and was wondering if it was because we are Americans. We finally asked a driver to take us to Corrientes and Junin and when we got there asked him to continue on to Rivadavia and he said no way so we had to walk 6 blocks with my handicapped foot. Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.Hi.
I am a professional chauffuer here in BsAs, and 9 de Julio and all around was all jammed up big time today for a huge rally. The taxi drivers were probably doing you a favor, you would have gone nowhere fast! Never seen so many busses before parked on 9 de Julio...
Hi.
I am a professional chauffuer here in BsAs, and 9 de Julio and all around was all jammed up big time today for a huge rally. The taxi drivers were probably doing you a favor, you would have gone nowhere fast! Never seen so many busses before parked on 9 de Julio...How come we were the only ones that knew how to skirt around the congestion? Cordoba all the way to Junin was wide open. Junin to Corrientes the same and when I asked the driver to take us 5 more blocks to Rivadavia I thought he was going to have a cardiac arrest. We walked Junin and there was no congestion. At Rivadavia, it was a one way turning away from Congreso. I think there was a certain amount of Paranoia going on with the drivers.
As Americans, was the content of her speech anything that would be of interest to us? We were here when her husband died and experienced the funeral stuff. I get the impression that she is like Obama, the Democrats love him and the Republicans despise him? We were also here when Bush was President and saw much graffiti that said F* Bush. Haven't seen that with Obama. How is their support for Obama?
Here's an interview with Ezequiel Burgo, a Clarin journalist who wrote the book "The Believer. Who is Axel Kicillof"?
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1547988-por-mas-que-se-defina-como-keynesiano-kicillof-es-marxista
Kicilloff is the 42 year old "Economy Minister" of Argentina, who reputedly now is the strongest finance minister Argentina has had since Domingo Cavallo. He's a specialist in Marxist economics, and was in charge of nationalizing (i.e. stealing) YPF from Repsol. The interviewer and Burgo point out that instead of recognizing that planned economies were the great failure of the 20th century, Kicillof chooses to dwell on hardships that have befallen developed capitalist economies during recent years. Kicilloff believes the crisis in Argentina is a crisis of capitalism.
Although he considers himself a Keynesian, Kicilloff performs his analysis using the strictures of Marxism. So the person running the Argentine economy is a witch doctor using totally-discredited principles someone dreamed up over 100 years ago, that were responsible for the greatest economic failures of our time, as a framework for making decisions.
What an idiot! This country doesn't have a prayer under current leadership.
Wild Walleye
03-04-14, 11:49
Here's an interview with Ezequiel Burgo, a Clarin journalist who wrote the book "The Believer. Who is Axel Kicillof"?
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1547988-por-mas-que-se-defina-como-keynesiano-kicillof-es-marxista
Kicilloff is the 42 year old "Economy Minister" of Argentina, who reputedly now is the strongest finance minister Argentina has had since Domingo Cavallo.Isn't that like having Pee Wee Herman as your strongest body guard?
With all do respect to younger-me, if you aren't old enough to have been through a couple of financial cycles, you aren't ready to 'run' an economy.
He's a specialist in Marxist economics, and was in charge of nationalizing (i.e. stealing) YPF from Repsol. The interviewer and Burgo point out that instead of recognizing that planned economies were the great failure of the 20th century, Kicillof chooses to dwell on hardships that have befallen developed capitalist economies during recent years. Kicilloff believes the crisis in Argentina is a crisis of capitalism.There has never been a Marxist who could honestly sell Marxism based upon its inherent benefits (this includes the current occupier of 1600 Pennsylvania).
Although he considers himself a Keynesian, Kicilloff performs his analysis using the strictures of Marxism.Excellent point. Because of the aforementioned problem (Marxism has no true, real-world benefits), Marxists must drape themselves in the vestments of others so as to further obfuscate their true intentions. Keynes, and his body of work, has really just served as a beard for Marxists in countries where being outwardly Marxist is not in vogue.
So the person running the Argentine economy is a witch doctor using totally-discredited principles someone dreamed up over 100 years ago, that were responsible for the greatest economic failures of our time, as a framework for making decisions.
What an idiot! This country doesn't have a prayer under current leadership.Wait, I thought we were talking about Argentina. How did you switch so quickly to a critique of the US?
This article about Central Bank President Fabrega explains a lot about what is going on at high levels:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/argentina-s-malbec-man-showing-yale-economist-how-to-manage-peso.html?cmpid=yhoo
Wild Walleye
03-21-14, 12:46
This article about Central Bank President Fabrega explains a lot about what is going on at high levels:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/argentina-s-malbec-man-showing-yale-economist-how-to-manage-peso.html?cmpid=yhooI love Marco del Pont's parting wisdom which essentially said "someone will have to clean up the inflation mess that I have helped to create." That is like knocking a jar of red sauce off the shelf at the grocery store and yelling "clean up in aisle 8!"
The problem that Fabrega has is that the window for him to work a miracle is not wide enough. Loose monetary policy and reckless spending are the life blood of the entrenched Left. It doesn't matter if he is on the right track or what is best for the country, if what he is doing harms the electoral prospects of those in charge (I.e. Taking away the currency with which they buy votes), what he is doing will come to an end. He will then be blamed for its failure and cast under the proverbial bus.
Big Boss Man
06-01-14, 18:59
I noticed several branches of the ICBC Bank in Buenos Aires in May 2014 that I do not remember in November 2013. ICBC is the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Banking prescence usually means that their is an intention to invest further into the country. In Los Angeles, the East West Bank was a major influence in expansion or Chinese. You also see the expansion of Chinese businesses. First it was the growth of Chinese markets. Now you see several fast food buffets around town run by Chinese.
One thing to consider is the real estate market. Chinese tend to be very into buying hard assets. They also tend to create their own communities within a city. In Los Angeles, Monterrey Park, San Marino and Rowland Heights are virtually Chinese villages. Sometimes they don't even bother to put English signage up. When Chinese buy real estate they do all cash deals. Can we extend the Los Aneles analogy to Buenos Aires? If the Chinese do migrate will it be to Belgrano or another neighborhood?
Any thoughts? Of course, after I wrote it I realize this is a stupid question because if anyone had strong inclinations about the trend (if it is a trend) and had the wherewithal to do anything about it, would not comment in a public forum.
I noticed several branches of the ICBC Bank in Buenos Aires in May 2014 that I do not remember in November 2013. ICBC is the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Banking prescence usually means that their is an intention to invest further into the country. In Los Angeles, the East West Bank was a major influence in expansion or Chinese. You also see the expansion of Chinese businesses. First it was the growth of Chinese markets. Now you see several fast food buffets around town run by Chinese.
One thing to consider is the real estate market. Chinese tend to be very into buying hard assets. They also tend to create their own communities within a city. In Los Angeles, Monterrey Park, San Marino and Rowland Heights are virtually Chinese villages. Sometimes they don't even bother to put English signage up. When Chinese buy real estate they do all cash deals. Can we extend the Los Aneles analogy to Buenos Aires? If the Chinese do migrate will it be to Belgrano or another neighborhood?
Any thoughts? Of course, after I wrote it I realize this is a stupid question because if anyone had strong inclinations about the trend (if it is a trend) and had the wherewithal to do anything about it, would not comment in a public forum. Small time Chinese have a presence in Retiro. They own markets, buffets, and restaurants.
Tres3.
Many Chinese immigrants came from Taiwan in the 1980's. More recent and probably larger scale Chinese immigration to Argentina has been from the mainland, and from the province of Fujian in particular. The total Chinese population in Argentina went over 100,000 sometime around 2009 or 2010, and is probably in the 120,000 to 140,000 range now. Exact figures are tough to come by because a lot of the immigration is illegal.
Chinese businesses include restaurants and laundry services (traditional areas for Chinese immigrants in many nations). Increasingly in Buenos Aires the Chinese have focused their efforts on small, efficiently run markets with prices that are competitive to the big supermarkets. They often have very high quality fresh fruits and vegetables, sometimes with a Bolivian subtenant running that part of the overall business. (Bolivians appear to dominate the fresh produce store business, at least in many neighborhoods). This is a good niche for the Chinese; the big markets often have less fresh produce for sale and long slow check-out lines. The impact has been dramatic. The big markets may be hampered in their ability to respond to the economic challenge by unions that will stop management from forcing employees to work more efficiently, etc. Carrefour has opened more Carrefour Express (small) markets in partial response.
If you ask a Porteño "Donde está un Cino? He will know you want a good little market, not a Chinese person.
I have not been in Argentina for around 4 years now, and with each passing year, the pull is getting weaker.
BA has a nice Chinatown for those who want to have authentic Chinese ingredients and supplies. Was delighted with the quality and variety of fresh tofu. Except for a quick bowl of beef soup noodles, I did not try anything else. As with most countries, there is a shift to cater to local taste and preferences. I always wonder if I had open a simple beef dumpling stand, with a simple beef broth, would I have been able to make a fortune! We always had a good laugh with the next to nothing beef odds & ends at the market that we turned into tasty soups & stews.
With any immigrant groups, the younger generation had no hesitation in assimilation. I look on with envy at the young Chinese studs with their Argentinian gf's. Or Paraguyans? And there was a club in Palermo? where the well-dressed cool cats came in, and every girl abandoned their tables and flocked to them. Should have gone to them and spoken to them in the Hokkien dialect, maybe, they would have given "older brother" a break.
Just remember this when it comes to any Chinatown. There will always be good food, gambling & brothels.
Daddy Rulz
06-02-14, 00:49
Many Chinese immigrants came from Taiwan in the 1980's. More recent and probably larger scale Chinese immigration to Argentina has been from the mainland, and from the province of Fujian in particular. The total Chinese population in Argentina went over 100,000 sometime around 2009 or 2010, and is probably in the 120,000 to 140,000 range now. Exact figures are tough to come by because a lot of the immigration is illegal.
Chinese businesses include restaurants and laundry services (traditional areas for Chinese immigrants in many nations). Increasingly in Buenos Aires the Chinese have focused their efforts on small, efficiently run markets with prices that are competitive to the big supermarkets. They often have very high quality fresh fruits and vegetables, sometimes with a Bolivian subtenant running that part of the overall business. (Bolivians appear to dominate the fresh produce store business, at least in many neighborhoods). This is a good niche for the Chinese; the big markets often have less fresh produce for sale and long slow check-out lines. The impact has been dramatic. The big markets may be hampered in their ability to respond to the economic challenge by unions that will stop management from forcing employees to work more efficiently, etc. Carrefour has opened more Carrefour Express (small) markets in partial response.
If you ask a Porteo "Donde est un Cino? He will know you want a good little market, not a Chinese person. The lines are shorter because the prices are significantly higher not lower. (Incidental for those of us that earn in dollars but fairly substantial for anybody earning in pesos).
I would say generally good quality fruits and veg, but the big disco in Recoletta has better. I'm pretty sure they turn off the refrigeration on the dairy and meat overnight. I use the chino around the corner a lot for coffee, milk, cleaning products, ect. Because there is never a line, but wouldn't even consider buying meat there. I go to Disco for meat, and strait to the Bolivians for fruit and veg. Your experience in your barrio may be different.
Member #3320
06-02-14, 02:01
I often travel Qatar Airways on my frequent trips to Sao Paolo. The plane is always on its way to Doha (Qatar) via a short stop over at Sao Paulo. From where they change to flights to Asia.
The plane is always full of Chinese going to China or coming from China!
I will let the reader draw his own conclusions about this Article and the Argentine government. I hope the link works.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-embarrassing-memo-could-ruin-171927448.html
Tres3.
I think its all a scam. They have been playing it up saying "there is no more debt" when what they really should be saying is there is no more OVERDUE debt! Plus if you would notice, all of these agreements have the first payments due after Cristina leaves office! They have paid nothing, they just have made one more agreement that they can't or won't honor hoping to be able to borrow more money during this brief window while their "credit rating" is just a little bit better then it was before they agreed to payment plans with old debtors. Its a typical Argie scam where they think they are pulling one over on every one else. Cristina is trying to leave office with things having the appearance of being in good shape.
Draw your own conclusions as to what Argentina will do next.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-top-court-rejects-argentina-141337020.html
Tres3.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-16/argentina-is-rebuffed-by-u-dot-s-dot-supreme-court-dot-now-what?campaign_id=yhoo
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-05/for-argentina-debt-disaster-looks-avoidable
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-21/argentina-asks-supreme-court-to-protect-it-from-vulture-hedge-fund
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-07/argentina-repeat-economic-offender
Tres3.
Headlines regarding Christina's speech on 6/16 are not pretty.
It was reported in this morning's Miami Herald that Cristina said Argentina would no pay the hold out bonds. Entire story on below link:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/06/17/4183130/argentina-wont-submit-to-extortion.html
Tres3.
Draw your on conclusions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-defiant-against-supreme-court-001435348.html
Tres3.
Argentina can afford to pay but it does not want to. It would cut into the governments corruption schemes and kick backs. They would have to stop paying the poor to have more babies! Argentina is just following the road to ruin taking lessons from Chavez, and look what he did in Venezuela. While inflation here is not yet as bad as in Venezuela it looks as if they are trying hard to catch up!
Below are two good links to the Argentina problem.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-debt-fight-why-matters-070145478.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/06/22/4191756/argentinas-big-loss-at-the-supreme.html
Tres3.
Argentina can afford to pay but it does not want to. It would cut into the governments corruption schemes and kick backs. They would have to stop paying the poor to have more babies! Argentina is just following the road to ruin taking lessons from Chavez, and look what he did in Venezuela. While inflation here is not yet as bad as in Venezuela it looks as if they are trying hard to catch up!Hehehe. I call them "kirchner's kidz" LOL.
As bad as they are, the worst of her children aren't teenagers, but are actually the middle aged ne'er-do-wells. Everybody else works hard so that they don't have to. Then when you and I are hard at work, that's when they are fast asleep with the rest of the rats just waiting, with nothing to do, until we get home. That way they have plenty of energy in the tank to hang out on street corners all night long, just lurking, and waiting until I step out of my apartment so, just like a god damned insect, they can jump onto their little hind legs, buzz around my face, and give me grief for making the mistake of enjoying the evening.
Its not as if there aren't plenty of jobs available as street sweepers. God knows that this town literally cannot use enough of those guys. They bust their ass all day, and I have nothing but the highest admiration for them. But no, as far as kirchner's kidz go everybody else works hard so that they don't have to.
Thomaso276
06-24-14, 20:30
Latest news today. Argentine wants a suspension of the order that they have to pay NML before paying other bond holders by June 30, so they can try and work around the perceived effect of the outstanding bonds (not the NML. Vulture money).
Lawyer for NML rejected the request in letter to the judge saying you cannot trust Argentina and they are looking for a way around the issue. He also points out that they had plenty of time to negotiate (over 2 years) and did nothing. Now the Argies want help from NML so they can try to avoid the outstanding debt to other bondholders! NML's attitude is basically, we do not care about your other bills. Pay us now.
I do not think Judge Griesa will lift the order to seize any money Argentina sends to others without paying NML because the plantiff objects and there is still a distrust of Argentinas true intentions.
The euphoria from change in attitude by Christina has a good chance of evaporating.
I believe NML is correct in their position. The letter to the judge is here: http://www.infobae.com/2014/06/24/1575578-holdouts-piden-al-juez-griesa-la-vigencia-la-sentencia-pero-abren-margen-negociacion.
Should be interesting.
Form your own conclusions about what Argentina will do, and the effect it will have on the Peso.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-request-delay-1-65b-184549370.html
Tres3.
Thomaso276
06-27-14, 14:05
Here is my take on the holdouts.
This past week Argentina starts a publicity tour lining up support from other countries who do not support the vulture holdouts. They start talking about the world court, Hague and other venues to dispute the NY judge's order.
Argentina says they sent $1 billion to NY Bank to pay the amount due to 2005/10 bondholders who got a forced haircut (not voluntary) and claims that they pay their bills. They also say once the money is in the NY bank, Argentina has fulfilled their commitment to pay and any embargo by the Judge would be against the bondholders. Argentina washes their hands of any further process and denies the equal treatment rule is violated because they paid on the due date. Of course, the money has not actually been transferred to NY as of today.
If the judge takes the money to pay the plantiff then Argentina will start paying from BsAs on the next go round to the 93% who agreed to the haircut.
Then the plantiff will have to look for assets held by Argentina to get the rest of their funds. Argentina hopes that the countries holding their assets will have political judges who refuse to allow seizure of these assets. These countries want to protect their own asses when they restructure any bonds. Plantiff will look to the deals Argentina made with the Paris Club, YPF as assets and try to recover from them.
A dangerous game but I cannot see Argentina abiding by rules as set forth by a judge! Argentina will lock themselves out of NY financials (they handle all of these bond payments around the globe) and hope all future dealings are handled by Shanghai!
Blue dollar creeps back up this week, we'll see this afternoon what happens.
Thomaso276
06-27-14, 14:11
This just in, NY Judge tells Mellon bank to return the money to Argentina! It was 500 million not 1 billion.
This just in, NY Judge tells Mellon bank to return the money to Argentina! It was 500 million not 1 billion.She lies about everything else, so why wouldn't they exaggerate a "little" on how much they are paying?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/06/28/argentinas-debt-fight-what-it-is-why-it-matters/11620283/
While the masses continue to scavenge the street for scraps, and the middle class worry about their mortgages, the rich and powerful play their corrupted games. What's a few tens of million dollars fluttering away by the wayside, in the end, they will always get their share of the spoils.
Retire N Trave
06-28-14, 18:35
The Buenos Aires Herald has been covering the bond dispute and fluctuations in the "blue" rate for dollars in seemingly hour by hour detail.
The site is http://www.buenosairesherald.com/ Today I noticed an interesting article on the history of the debt accumulation in the
paper at http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/163263/debt-which-debt Not sure who the commentator (Tereschuk) is. He appears
to be pro Argentine, and possibly pro Argentine government.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/06/28/argentinas-debt-fight-what-it-is-why-it-matters/11620283/
While the masses continue to scavenge the street for scraps, and the middle class worry about their mortgages, the rich and powerful play their corrupted games. What's a few tens of million dollars fluttering away by the wayside, in the end, they will always get their share of the spoils.How does a foreigner who is poor and weak vs. Someone who is rich and powerful travel to Thailand and Palawan?
Tres3.
How does a foreigner who is poor and weak vs. Someone who is rich and powerful travel to Thailand and Palawan
Tres3.How much I spent in a week in Palawan, and my monthly living expenses in Bangkok, you would laugh & shake your head! Although I don't deny myself of anything that I want, it's just my wants are simple and non threatening to my social security payments. My flights from Manila to Puerto Princessa, round-trip for 2 people, $50. Of course, it's an air promotion on Air Asia. Next stop, a week in Kyoto in late September, don't laugh, please! I don't know why, but hotels are incredibly affordable the last week in September. Must be the off season which is the way to travel to avoid the crowds. Even then, I do have to dip under the mattress for that trip, but not too much.
Anyway, it has nothing to do with the Argentine government and the hedge funds who are suing them for non-payment. Who is the bigger crook in all this? I am sure the hedge funds understood Argentina? Hope you get the message.
By the way, I am running a summer camp for people who want to know how to live modestly but lacking nothing, personal or material. Not claiming to be a guru or in a state of nirvana, anything of that sort. And no guarantee of success for every candidate. But for your 1st step, stop buying lottery tickets back in California, okay? Winning will bring profound changes in your life, mostly, of the self destructive kind.
But for your 1st step, stop buying lottery tickets back in California, okay? Winning will bring profound changes in your life, mostly, of the self destructive kind.FYI I do not live in California, and never in my life have I bought a lottery ticket from any jurisdiction.
However, I also believe in the rule of law, and Argentina has a history of being a scofflaw at both the government and personal level. If the government of Argentina thought that a USA Federal Judge, who is appointed for life in an attempt to avoid politics, would not enforce the pari passu clause of the bond indenture, the government is living in a dream world, and got what they deserved. Unfortunately, many persons are going to suffer who had no say in the government's decision. Throughout recorded history, regardless of the form of government, there have been haves and have nots. This will never change, so get used to it.
Tres3.
There certainly are some humorless folks on AP these days. I'm beginning to think some of these "mongers" never get laid.
Actually the Reverend told me he spent about $10,000 US on nothing but whoares and tequila in the Philipeenies.
There certainly are some humorless folks on AP these days. I'm beginning to think some of these "mongers" never get laid.
Actually the Reverend told me he spent about $10,000 US on nothing but whoares and tequila in the Philipeenies.You know I can't get it up anymore! But I'm always fearful I might be incline to do a Howard Marshall / Anna Nicole Smith type of scenario once the brain cells start mutating.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/417839/wealth-gap-keeps-li-awake
Some observations from one of the richest man in the world, Li Ka Shing on government, education, widening wealth gap. He remarks: "What is most unsettling for me is that TRUST, the bedrock of an enlightened society is crumbling before our eyes. ".
I talk about INTEGRITY once before. Integrity is Trust. I could be wrong, but I think they are synonymous within a value system.
The below link was on Bloomberg this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-29/argentina-at-brink-of-default-as-539-million-payment-due.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
The below link gives the latest development in the Argentine debt saga. All I will say is that I would not risk pissing off a Federal Judge, especially after the Supreme Court has ruled on the issue.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bny-mellon-u-judge-argentinas-225431358.html
Tres3.
The juiciest steak in all of Argentina is not to be found in its parillas, but its POLITICS. hehe lol
Looks like Argentina could default and their currency could tank as early as Aug 1. Any thoughts on this.
The Argentine government must be living in a dream world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-gets-set-debt-talks-calling-u-judge-155719969--sector.html
Tres3.
The Argentine government must be living in a dream world.
Tres3.LMAO! You are JUST figuring that out? This is Cristina's wonderful world of deceit and fantasy we are enjoying here!
How much I spent in a week in Palawan, and my monthly living expenses in Bangkok, you would laugh & shake your head! Although I don't deny myself of anything that I want, it's just my wants are simple and non threatening to my social security payments. My flights from Manila to Puerto Princessa, round-trip for 2 people, $50. Of course, it's an air promotion on Air Asia. Next stop, a week in Kyoto in late September, don't laugh, please! I don't know why, but hotels are incredibly affordable the last week in September. Must be the off season which is the way to travel to avoid the crowds. Even then, I do have to dip under the mattress for that trip, but not too much.
Anyway, it has nothing to do with the Argentine government and the hedge funds who are suing them for non-payment. Who is the bigger crook in all this? I am sure the hedge funds understood Argentina? Hope you get the message.
By the way, I am running a summer camp for people who want to know how to live modestly but lacking nothing, personal or material. Not claiming to be a guru or in a state of nirvana, anything of that sort. And no guarantee of success for every candidate. But for your 1st step, stop buying lottery tickets back in California, okay? Winning will bring profound changes in your life, mostly, of the self destructive kind.On my $1200 SS disability. It looks like I couldn't live ANYWHERE halfway decent. Keep sticking food in my face I guess, whatever is cheap. . and NEVER getting laid.
On my $1200 SS disability. It looks like I couldn't live ANYWHERE halfway decent. Keep sticking food in my face I guess, whatever is cheap. . and NEVER getting laid.If you are open minded and can enjoy Thai food & culture, healthy, and have a good personality, I encourage you to take the plunge. Amazing Thailand is truly amazing. All the american essentials are available here in Bangkok. But 1200 dollars means you can't go hog crazy. Sex goes for around 1000 baht and up. If you are Caucasian, you will be upgraded in status by 2-3 notches immediately until proven otherwise. Recent cases of Western homeless panhandlers in Pattaya is eroding the mystique.
On my $1200 SS disability. It looks like I couldn't live ANYWHERE halfway decent. Keep sticking food in my face I guess, whatever is cheap. . and NEVER getting laid.I second the Rev's advise about Thailand. If you are on a limited budget you could do a lot worse than considering Thailand. Many expats here in your situation. Cheap, decent housing, cheap and good street food, very little crime and a BBBJ / CIM for as little as $22 US. $37 US to get laid. If you are living in the US a move to SE Asia means leaving your "comfort zone" but tons of people do it. Its really not that hard.
There is affordable housing in Bangkok, as well as in Chiang Mai, where I am moving soon. Here's an example of a studio in Chiang Mai for $170 US a month at the current exchange rate:
http://bangkok.craigslist.co.th/apa/4553552998.html
It has always pained me to see men live out their remaining years in one form of misery or another when it doesn't have to be.
One more example and the last of my Chiang Mai examples. You get the idea. This one for $114 US a month.
http://www.buyinchiangmai.com/ppe-310.html
I second the Rev's advise about Thailand. If you are on a limited budget you could do a lot worse than considering Thailand. Many expats here in your situation. Cheap, decent housing, cheap and good street food, very little crime and a BBBJ / CIM for as little as $22 US. $37 US to get laid. If you are living in the US a move to SE Asia means leaving your "comfort zone" but tons of people do it. Its really not that hard.
There is affordable housing in Bangkok, as well as in Chiang Mai, where I am moving soon. Here's an example of a studio in Chiang Mai for $170 US a month at the current exchange rate:
http://bangkok.craigslist.co.th/apa/4553552998.html
It has always pained me to see men live out their remaining years in one form of misery or another when it doesn't have to be.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/414198/american-arrested-over-girlfriend-death
We need more upright & sane Americans in Thailand. Living in Pattaya, that tells a great deal about a person, I believe.
Big Boss Man
07-12-14, 17:21
Last the last month I observed the new presence the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China in town and exclaimed at the wonder of all the new Chinese businesses. I wondered out loud if it might be a harbinger of what was to come based on my experience in Los Angeles.
I read a couple of articles this week that helped me further connect the dots on why you might look favorably on Bueno Aires now.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/did-china-just-crush-us-housing-market
Perhaps the Chinese are laundering money in Buenos Aires also through the ICBC. It is probably a less desirable place than Los Angeles because of rule of law issues.
Then there was Byron Wien's annual "Smartest Man In Europe" essay where "the smartest man" states he is "bullish on Argentina. ".
"As for the rest of the world, I am pretty bored. I think Indonesia is basically a commodities rather than industrial market and if commodities do well, so will the country's equities, but I can't predict commodity prices. In Latin America I am bullish on Argentina; Brazil will recover, but it is too early to invest now. ".
http://blackstone.com/news-views/market-commentary/blog-detail/byron's-market-commentary /2014/07/02/ the-smartest-man-in-europe-sees-a-new-industrial-revolution.
Unfortunately "the smartest man" does not explain why.
So for those of you who are selling Argentina these days it might be instructive to look who buying what you are selling. Buyers and sellers afterall make the market.
For me, I bought a full position in IDCBY two weeks ago. One of my wirehouse brokers had a buy recommendation on it.
Last the last month I observed the new presence the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China in town and exclaimed at the wonder of all the new Chinese businesses. I wondered out loud if it might be a harbinger of what was to come based on my experience in Los Angeles.Please expound, very interesting.
Big Boss Man
07-13-14, 12:51
Please expound, very interesting.Unfortunately it was about all I have on this subject. Nothing to expound on. Chinese money is very influential in LA County's economy. I was trying to understand why I was seeing a Chinese bank and all the new Chinese businesses in Buenos Aires.
I thought I read that Putin was there yesterday trying to buy oil. Why does Russia need oil?
Is Argentina pivoting away from the West?
Is Argentina pivoting away from the West?What are you smoking Bigbossman?
Argentina never was in the west!
How many other countries had a war against GB since 45?
Big Boss Man
07-13-14, 15:49
What are you smoking Bigbossman?
Argentina never was in the west!
How many other countries had a war against GB since 45?Medical marijuana by prescription for my neck pain.
Politically, Argentina does what is good for the political class and ultra rich. WWII neutral to make money from both sides until the very end. Al Qaeda did their banking in Argentina and ciudad del este. The ridiculous banking system was allowed to exist to further money laundering by wealthy argentines when tended to frequently do things in negro with their personal funds.
Big Boss Man
07-14-14, 22:21
http://online.wsj.com/articles/chinese-banks-halt-experimental-yuan-remittance-program-1405345453
China's major banks have halted an experimental program, sanctioned by the country's central bank, that helped citizens transfer large sums overseas despite government capital controls, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The halt, which the people said was likely to be temporary, comes after the program was criticized by China's powerful state television broadcaster, underscoring the political sensitivity of the issue of wealthy Chinese moving money abroad. Experts said the criticism could set back China's efforts to ease its grip on the country's financial system.
Big commercial banks including Bank of China Ltd. 601988. SH +0. 39% , Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. 601398. SH +0. 29% and China Citic Bank Corp. 601998. SH +1. 41% have halted the program, which allowed Chinese to remit their yuan across borders, the people said. The halt came after the People's Bank of China, the central bank, started to look into allegations that Bank of China had used the program to help clients launder money, they said.
6 or 7 years ago, I had a Chinese friend who spoke perfect english. He was buying mountains, barren land without water and mountians for the glaziers. I asked him why? He said today our money is undervalued and any hard asset that may have value in 20 years is better than cash.
Big Boss Man
07-15-14, 23:48
6 or 7 years ago, I had a Chinese friend who spoke perfect english. He was buying mountains, barren land without water and mountians for the glaziers. I asked him why? He said today our money is undervalued and any hard asset that may have value in 20 years is better than cash.I don't know but it happened in Los Angeles and from what Rev BS posted in World Economics in Sydney and New York. My LA girlfriend is Chinese and all she thinks about is Real Estate. With the opening of the ICBC bank in Buenos Aires, it appears as if Chinese have established some infrastructure to move money into the country.
Or are they waiting for the collapse which seems to be the prevailing view on the Board to make their move?
Draw your own conclusions from the below link.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-announces-heavy-investments-argentina-071608537.html
Tres3.
An interesting view on China.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/19/4243223/andres-oppenheimer-china-is-flexing.html
Tres3.
It looks as if Argentina needs a poker lesson. Even a beginner knows that you do not bluff when every other player at the table knows what cards you are holding. It was worse than amateur night in Dixie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-22/argentina-bond-judge-orders-continuous-talks-to-avoid-default.html
Tres3.
Spassmusssein
07-23-14, 18:15
It looks as if Argentina needs a poker lesson. Even a beginner knows that you do not bluff when every other player at the table knows what cards you are holding. It was worse than amateur night in Dixie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-22/argentina-bond-judge-orders-continuous-talks-to-avoid-default.html
Tres3.Argentina does not need a poker lesson. Maybe another gouvernement in 17 months. THIS will happen.
It is completely unimportant for Argentina what this judge presumes to rule.
Maybe it's of interest for the legal bondholders.
Every country of this world had several defaults. Just Switzerland never dafaulted.
A country with en EXTERNAL debt of apro 10%, dept total of 40 - 49% (of PBI) which produces food for 200.000. 000 families, which owns the second highest shale-gas reserves. Will never default.
Maybe P. Singer (WHASP or catholic or Sciento or mormon or¿¿¿) will get a interesting lesson in real life.
"Never count the money, when you're sitting on the table. There 'll be time enough for counting, when the dealing is done".
P.D. "Where we better then...with our backs against the wall?" (Highwaymen)
It is completely unimportant for Argentina what this judge presumes to rule.Yes, of course, because Argentina will continue it's tradition of fucking every body that evers does business with Argentina.
Maybe it's of interest for the legal bondholders.I suggest that it's going to be of great interest to Argentina in the near future.
Every country of this world had several defaults. Just Switzerland never dafaulted.Hey birdbrain, where exactly did you get this "information"? Care to share the link with the rest of us?
A country with en EXTERNAL debt of apro 10%Only because Argentina fucked everybody who ever lent it money. It's easy to have a low ratio of external debt to GNP when you are continuously reneging on your debts
...which produces food for 200.000.000 families...So where's the money from all those exports? Possibly in Christina's Swiss bank account?
...which owns the second highest shale-gas reserves...And which Argentina has no idea how to extract with it's own technology, and no oil company with the technological expertise to do the job will ever do business with the Argentine Government that fucks every international corporation it can.
...Will never default...Are you forgetting that Argentina has ALREADY defaulted on it's bonds in the past?
Maybe P. Singer (WHASP or catholic or Sciento or mormon or) will get a interesting lesson in real life.I would suggest that it's going to be Argentina that "will get a interesting lesson in real life".
"Never count the money, when you're sitting on the table. There 'll be time enough for counting, when the dealing is done".
P.D. "Where we better then...with our backs against the wall?" (Highwaymen)Sounds like gibberish to me.
If Spassmusssein does not understand the power of a federal district judge, whose ruling has been backed up by the Supreme Court, he is deluded or just plain stupid. Argentina may need a poker lesson, but Spassmusssein needs a civics lesson.
Tres3.
Every country of this world had several defaults. Just Switzerland never dafaulted.
A country with en EXTERNAL debt of apro 10%, dept total of 40 - 49% (of PBI) which produces food for 200.000. 000 families, which owns the second highest shale-gas reserves. Will never default.
For that to be true you need a Gov't that's sane and interested in doing what's right for the country! Which we all know rules out ALL of the Gov'ts in the history of Argentina!
Member #4112
07-23-14, 21:11
Hey Spass, in case you missed it the Chase Mellon bank in New York which is one of the primary centers for Argentina to disburse its payments to the bondholders who took a 70+% "haircut" refused to make that disbursement to those other bondholders and was told by that very same Federal Judge to return the money to Argentina.
While Argentina has substantial reserves, as Jackson pointed out, they have neither the capital nor the expertise and equipment to extract it.
Spassmusssein
07-23-14, 21:41
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_debt_crises
USA just defaulted 2 - 5 times, as the page publishes. As the link changes (as I saw) huugle it, you ll find all statistics about states-bancrupcy.
Even Phillip II defaulted 4 times in his career. His bondholders where from Genua, after that "Fugger" and "Welser". Finally Phillip II paid back good in good years, bad in bad years. An argentinean blueprint ;-=))
Lending out cash is just...betting on the ability of beeing payd back.
It's finally just "Johannes Calvin's fault" who allowed the bible, to take interests.
Nobody in this funny governement will take care to Griesas final desicion. Neither any Argentine citizen.
The bondholders that will accept beeing paid in Buenos Aires will hopefully get paid.
Insisting in getting paid in NY...might be just a hopefull wish.
Have a lovely mongering night!
TejanoLibre
07-23-14, 22:26
If Spassmusssein does not understand the power of a federal district judge, whose ruling has been backed up by the Supreme Court, he is deluded or just plain stupid. Argentina may need a poker lesson, but Spassmusssein needs a civics lesson.
Tres3.I can honestly say that I have never met a judge that I actually liked!
They are just such assholes when they are sitting across a bench from you!
One exception:
Judge Billy Reagan, Houston, Texas.
Wrote a pamphlet on how to beat a D.W.I in 1981 !
Great guy!
His son died of cirrhosis of the liver at 35 .
TL.
Daddy Rulz
07-24-14, 01:24
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_debt_crises
USA just defaulted 2 - 5 times, as the page publishes.This page doesn't publish a US Sovereign Debt Default. It's lists several instances when the US had various financial crisis's, but it is not included in the list of nations that actually defaulted on debt as Argentina has. The page is called "List of sovereign debt crises" not "List of Sovereign Debt Defaults" Defaults are only one section of the page.
I'm not trying to get involved in this argument, I just didn't think the US had actually ever defaulted and wanted to check and see. When it did, your source says it hasn't.
The list for the USA has;
1. The instability of the Continental Dollar due to the English successfully counterfeiting them. (Fucking Brits, not good sport there at all)
2. Some obscure naval battle in Haiti (I'm not sure what that has to do with debt, it wasn't clear).
3. Roosevelt making the private ownership of gold illegal during the Depression.
4. Nixon suspending the convertibility of the dollar.
Let me get this straight. The vulture funds are not going to come to an agreement with Argentina, a technical default will ensue, and they will get nothing? I doubt they are going to cut off their nose to spite their face. What am I missing?
Hey Spass, in case you missed it the Chase Mellon bank in New York which is one of the primary centers for Argentina to disburse its payments to the bondholders who took a 70+% "haircut" refused to make that disbursement to those other bondholders and was told by that very same Federal Judge to return the money to Argentina.
While Argentina has substantial reserves, as Jackson pointed out, they have neither the capital nor the expertise and equipment to extract it.This is very true. But what good does it do if the Gov't is a bunch of fools and every one has their hands in the cookie jar? If you want a close to home example, look at Chavez Land (Venezuela) . More proven reserves then any country in the world. And they can't even keep the population in toilet paper! Cristina land (Argentina) is slowly but surely following her once upon a time amigo into oblivion!
Argentina is a country rich in resources. Lets hope the people get some of it before the politicos piss it all away! And above all! Remember the pope is Argentine!! That and the Malvinas belong to Argentina! That and a SUBE card will get you down town! (But only if some one loaded some money onto the card!
Member #4112
07-24-14, 17:57
Perhaps what happens on the international financial front will not make much difference to the average Argentine today, but in a country with heavily subsidized heating and electric industries where the government is having trouble funding those subsidies the recent increase in gas prices by a few hundred percent and the probability of the same for electric costs does make a difference. I see what is playing out in the US Federal Court can only hurt the countries financial footing, maybe you see it differently.
Argentine default looms. I do not know why the Argentine government keeps citing RUFO. A careful reading reveals that technically RUFO does not apply because the government would be complying with an "order". I think they are just trying to obfuscate matters, which is typical of Argentina.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentine-default-looms-time-runs-125138382.html
Tres3.
Spassmusssein
07-26-14, 21:19
If Spassmusssein does not understand the power of a federal district judge, whose ruling has been backed up by the Supreme Court, he is deluded or just plain stupid. Argentina may need a poker lesson, but Spassmusssein needs a civics lesson.
Tres3.As the mexican journalist Silvina Sterin Pinsel wrote Friday, old age not always is a warant for quality.
Usually with Whisky and Bordeaux-wines it is.
Obviously judge Griesa had / has problems, understanding the cause, his judgement and the consequences.
You can guumble it easily.
Anyway, there will not be great confusions, just the exchange "blue" will get down.
As the mexican journalist Silvina Sterin Pinsel wrote Friday, old age not always is a warant for quality.
Usually with Whisky and Bordeaux-wines it is.
Obviously judge Griesa had / has problems, understanding the cause, his judgement and the consequences.
You can guumble it easily.
Anyway, there will not be great confusions, just the exchange "blue" will get down.Sounds like MORE gibberish to me.
Spassmusssein
07-27-14, 23:32
Sounds like MORE gibberish to me.Dear forum-owner, if you love the definition "gibberish", really soo muuch,
have funfunfun + use it as foolish-gibberish everytime as you want 4 my posts.
As you are not so updatet and keen in macro-economy, quite more in rhetoric outblasts, I will stay "off limits" furthermore in this discussion.
Hope that your mansion and "Alamo" will have a big future. Even after the "(inexistent) default".
Next time in a house-party (if I would be invited still), I owe you a nice "champan" or "Malbec" if u want.
Why do you guys assume that the USA is the center of the universe. Do you know him? Have you ever talked with him about anything? He has be posting useful info on AP for many years. He lives and has made money in business in the provencia for a long time. He has many argentine friends and associates and might have a better feel for the word in the street than sex tourists.
Economically Argentina is playing with a loaded bomb. If they do not work within the USA federal court order, they are going to get fucked 1000 different ways.
Maybe the Chinese will help out the argentine government with 25% of the pompas humidas as collateral.
This board can use spas's posting more than he needs ap. Let's not lose another posting member over playing "quien es mas macho" on an internet chat board.
Every one has their opinion. In something like this discussion I doubt there is no concrete right or wrong answer. From what I see, if Cristinaland defaults, things will go on as they have been. The only reason they want their accounts in order so to speak is so they can borrow more money so that they can have a even bigger default in the future! The biggest issue is if Argentina continues as it has for so many years by just scraping by or if some one of intelligence takes the reins and makes this country into what it could be! Improve the little things. Paved roads, lighted streets, telephone system that is affordable and works, postal system that is affordable and works, a electric and gas distribution system that works like it should! Once again I could go on and on but some one should straighten out this country, it has great possibilities!
Every one has their opinion. In something like this discussion I doubt there is no concrete right or wrong answer. From what I see, if Cristinaland defaults, things will go on as they have been. The only reason they want their accounts in order so to speak is so they can borrow more money so that they can have a even bigger default in the future! The biggest issue is if Argentina continues as it has for so many years by just scraping by or if some one of intelligence takes the reins and makes this country into what it could be! Improve the little things. Paved roads, lighted streets, telephone system that is affordable and works, postal system that is affordable and works, a electric and gas distribution system that works like it should! Once again I could go on and on but some one should straighten out this country, it has great possibilities!I agree. Put a Margaret Thatcher type in charge and it would be amazing how Argentina would transform. They just need an attitude adjustment on government and what to expect from it.
Wild Walleye
07-31-14, 12:22
I agree. Put a Margaret Thatcher type in charge and it would be amazing how Argentina would transform. They just need an attitude adjustment on government and what to expect from it.That is not only unlikely, it is nearly impossible.
Since even before Juan Peron wreaked havoc on the populace, those holding the reigns of power (regardless of political leanings), in Argentina, have been unified in their abuse of the populace for their continued power and prosperity. One of the conditions necessary to continue this exploitation of the country's people and resources is the limitation of information reaching the individual. This is achieved through both, the institutionalization of provincialism and by overwhelming the media with propaganda, thereby forcing any real information to the margins. A critical byproduct of this has been that a plurality of the citizenry has become structurally (I. E. Permanently) dependent upon the government for something that the individual believes (rightly or wrongly) that he can't provide for himself. Therefore, his well being is dependent upon perpetuation of the policies that got him into the predicament. When any philosophy, challenging the status quo (I. E. Keeping people in their place. Dependent upon the govt. And exploiting them) begins to propagate, it is ritualistically flogged in nearly 100% of the media until it is regarded by the populace as a periah. However, when the next shoe drops (in this sense, Argentina is a centipede or millipede), that philosophy (recently run out of town) will be blamed for whatever problems the govt has created. When all else fails, you will see articles about the Malvinas, splashed upon all of the media.
The current default is merely another act in the theater of the absurd. Kicillof shows up at the final moment, offers what is already known to be unacceptable and leaves. Miraculously, the "private" banking industry steps in and agrees to purchase all of the bonds at a price the govt can't pay without triggering the RUFO provisions of the exchange notes. Oddly, the RUFO rights expire this December. I am certain that the Argentine banks won't get a sweet deal from the govt for stepping in. Who pays for this? The people, of course.
I think that this quote from zerohedge.com sums up Argentina's stance quite accurately:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-30/how-argentina-became-bad-debtor
Try to explain to your bank that since it was you who squandered your earnings for more than a decade, you have the right to not pay the mortgage with which you purchased your home.
When the bank takes you to court for not paying your mortgage, explain to the judge that you are a poor victim of evil money vultures and that you have the right to ignore creditors because you couldnt be bothered with changing your unsustainable spending habits.
When the judge rules against you, try to explain to the world in international newspapers how the decision of the judge is an injustice that endangers the international banking market (as the Argentine government has been doing recently).
Wild Walleye
07-31-14, 17:11
I love Kicillof saying that this isn't a default because Argentina "paid" the interest payment. He leaves out the fact that Argentina knew full well that Griesa had enjoined BNY from forwarding any funds to the exchange note holders. That is like missing a mortgage payment because you left the money, for the bank, in an envelope that you buried in the back yard and sent the bank a note letting them know what you've done. Bonds have very explicit terms and conditions that are spelled out in the prospectus just like a home mortgage gives explicit instructions on how the bank will be repaid. The simple fact is that Argentina defaulted on its bonds and then only resolved the issue with 95% of the owners of those bonds (you know, the people who got screwed, investing in Argentina). The only problem is that the original agreement (the bonds on which the country defaulted in '01) applied to 100% of the bond holders and there were not provisions that would force the 5% to go along with the majority. Therefore, in '05 and '10, Argentina did not resolve its bond issues. It did a partial job and it left a very big problem unaddressed. The entire issue is based upon Argentina not standing up to the agreements to which it had previously committed.
What is most galling is that Kicillof then goes out and says that they can't address the legal claims (which Argentina claims are not rightfully theirs, despite the courts saying otherwise) of the holdouts because, they (the Govt) are so altruistic and honorable that they can't violate the terms of the agreements into which they entered in '05 and '10. So, they are committed to standing up to the obligations of the government, except for those instances that they are not willing to stand behind their obligations. Well, that makes sense...in Argentina.
I guarantee you that the "private" banks will get huge rewards, come next year and the 95% that holds the exchange notes will sue, claiming that the govt acted in bad faith and in collusion with the "private" banks and that they in fact did violate the RUFO, prior to 12,31, 2014 and therefore the entire class of exchange bonds is due equal treatment. When that shoe gets dropped, the sh*t is going to hit the fan. My guess is that after years of litigation, the 95% will win and Argentina will have $30B (or so) judgement handed down for the shenanigans that they are trying to pull off, now.
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