View Full Version : Argentine Economy
HappyGoLucky
07-31-14, 17:55
"Argentina Default Imminent as Talks Collapse".
http://online.wsj.com/articles/argentina-bonds-rise-to-multiyear-highs-on-prospect-of-deal-1406728458
Member #4112
07-31-14, 18:54
First off it was Argentina who offered the originally defaulted bonds in New York, knowing full well they would be subject to New York statutes governing such sales. Second it was Argentina that set the terms of those bonds. Now they come back complaining about the judge and laws in New York and about the terms and conditions of the bonds THEY DRAFTED AND SOLD.
Daddy Rulz
08-01-14, 13:29
In this article Why Argentina's default feels like American bullying, Don Pittis he tries to explain why maybe Argentina has a leg to stand on.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/why-argentina-s-default-feels-like-american-bullying-don-pittis-1.2724389
Then he wrote this.
In some ways it is disappointing that the New York courts have thrown their support behind the vultures and against the country trying to get its financial house in order."Getting it's financial house in order," LOL.
Thanks for the laugh Don.
First off it was Argentina who offered the originally defaulted bonds in New York, knowing full well they would be subject to New York statutes governing such sales. Second it was Argentina that set the terms of those bonds. Now they come back complaining about the judge and laws in New York and about the terms and conditions of the bonds THEY DRAFTED AND SOLD.And to add...
10 years ago, Argentina could have bought the very same bonds, at the exact same distressed price that the so called "Vultures" bought them, this being a common tactic exercised by financially distressed corporations.
Instead, Argentina decided to play a game of chicken in the New York State courts, apparently banking (no pun intended) on the idea that said courts would be as easily manipulated by political pressure and public opinion as the courts in Argentina.
They lost that gamble.
Thanks,
Jax.
In this article Why Argentina's default feels like American bullying, Don Pittis he tries to explain why maybe Argentina has a leg to stand on.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/why-argentina-s-default-feels-like-american-bullying-don-pittis-1.2724389
Then he wrote this.
"Getting it's financial house in order," LOL.
Thanks for the laugh Don.They are trying to give the impression that they are trying to get their act together. But that is only so they can BORROW MORE MONEY! All they are doing is postponing payments on capital and paying on interest for now. They have some big payments coming up in the coming years when they HOPE they will be better off financially and will be able to pay. Of course every one knows that is a dream.
The part here that is truly outrageous is the judge's action to block the interest payments to the other bondholders. Argentina has the money to make those payments, but the judge blocked it, and further declared it illegal for anyone to help facilitate those payments. All in an attempt to strong-arm Argentina into paying the holdout funds. How does the judge get that kind of power? It's ridiculous. I am sure the other bondholders are pleased at getting their payments blocked.
Decisions like this support Argentina's claim that the judge is biased, and that the "talks" being ordered amount to extortion. Not surprisingly, the judge Thomas Griesa is a life-long Republican, appointed by a Republican president. And the holdouts are led by hedge fund titan Paul Singer, a conservative billionaire who has given millions of dollars to Bush and Romney.
The holdout funds do have a legal claim to their payment. But given the circumstances, the rulings of the judge go beyond the pale. He knows about the RUFO clause, but still insisted on forcing Argentina into default.
Wall Street is playing both sides here. The ISDA just determined that a credit event occured, triggering up to $1 Billion in payments on insurance that protects against default. Who sits on the ISDA committee? Singer's company and large US banks. How convenient. Who bought the insurance? Singer and large US banks? Somewhere in the US today, some very wealthy people are very pleased with judge Griesa. On Wall Street, it doesn't matter who gets hurt, as long as there is profit to be made.
The part here that is truly outrageous is the judge's action to block the interest payments to the other bondholders. Argentina has the money to make those payments, but the judge blocked it, and further declared it illegal for anyone to help facilitate those payments. All in an attempt to strong-arm Argentina into paying the holdout funds. How does the judge get that kind of power? It's ridiculous. I am sure the other bondholders are pleased at getting their payments blocked.
Law...is the opium of the masses, a mere construct devised by the bourgeois class to subjugate the proletariat - Karl Marx, the Communist Manifesto, 1848
In his Tuesday speech, Axel Kicillof (Marxist Minister of the Economy who's "negotiating" with bondholders on behalf of Argentina) mocked the concept of the "rule of law," saying this was designed to protect big business. -Reuters, April 20, 2012
Member #4112
08-02-14, 18:41
Esten, I expect you to break out in song at any minute - "Don't Cry for Me Argentina" for the poor masses.
Where did the judge get the power, why Argentina gave it to him when no one would buy their debt issued under Argentine law they, Argentina, went to New York to issue the bonds so everyone would get a warm fuzzy buying Argentine bonds governed by New York law.
All the judge did was READ THE CONTRACT between the bondholders and Argentina, which I might add Argentina WROTE, and just like any other contract dispute in American courts he just ruled on what WAS IN THE CONTRACT.
I believe in Poland they would say "Tough Shitisky", Argentina wrote it, got the money and now they have to live with it.
By the way, I would not consider a reduction in value of 75%+ the other bondholders took to be a "haircut", I would consider it a decapitation!
Somewhere in the US today, some very wealthy people are very pleased with judge Griesa. On Wall Street, it doesn't matter who gets hurt, as long as there is profit to be made.Esten, Are you serious? If Kirchner and Kicillof would negotiate in good faith they could settle this for about $1 billion and move on. The benefit of avoiding default to Argentina would be worth much more than that. However, the Peronists have their eyes on elections in 2015, so the public and country be damned. They think this will win them votes. There are parallels in USA politics.
What do you think the effect would be on new issues of emerging market debt if investors believed courts would not attempt to enforce contract terms or repayment? There would be less issuance of debt and interest rates would be higher. Poor people would suffer. Griesa did the world a service.
This is an example of why some of us are confounded by the sanctimonious attitude of some on the left. You hurt the people you're trying to help.
I was actually working at a futures trading firm when the bonds in question were conceived. We traded mostly interest rates and currencies so we were interested in this issue. Hence I read the entire bond indenture and remember thinking that some of the provisions could end up tying the Argies' hands down the road. I don't remember all the specifics but the judge looked to this same indenture when making his decision. Esten has a point in that there is a conflict of interest since the default would be insured, but the Argies and their underwriters knew all of this going in, because it was all in the indenture for all the world to see. Watch the film 'Camila' for a good example of how Argies make decisions based on pride, greed, lust, etc. , but never based on logic or common sense.
Also they are lying about inventing the ballpoint pen (el birome). Both Biró and Meyne were Hungarian Jews who did not arrive in Argentina until three years after Biró had obtained a patent in the UK. So the inventors are not Argie and the ballpoint was not invented in Argentina. Carlos Gardel was French on both sides so eliminate him too. What does Argentina have left? Luis Firpo was pretty good, Juan Manuel Fangio was pretty good but every BA cab driver who thinks he is Fangio is unfortuately not, and you have a few athletes. Mollejas are okay but chinchulines are gross and mondongo is only tolerable. Maté is among the most wasteful and vapid culture practices one can think of, possibly a cut above chewing betel nut but not much, and of course argentinos do it in a gross and unsanitary fashion; note that the bombilla is never shared in Uruguay.
I would feel sorry for the hard-working rank-and-file Argentinian doing their best to get ahead, if I had ever met any in the six and a half years I spent there. Hence the need for the verb 'zafar' which does not exist in other Spanish-speaking countries.
All the judge did was READ THE CONTRACT between the bondholders and Argentina, which I might add Argentina WROTE, and just like any other contract dispute in American courts he just ruled on what WAS IN THE CONTRACT.
This link to an article in The Atlantic might have been posted before, but I thought it was a good article that helped explain to me the why's of the Argentine default especially why the US courts have jurisdiction. In a nutshell, the writer reminds everyone that you "always read the contract" and you can't fault the judge's ruling because the 65 words in the contract are not ambiguous.
http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/07/65-words-just-caused-argentinas-29-billion-default/375368/
There was an interesting article last week in the Wall Street Journal on how the Kirchner's purportedly amassed a fortune while in the Casa Rosada with the help of a businessman, Lazaro Baez. Here's the link: http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-argentina-mix-of-money-and-politics-stirs-intrigue-around-kirchner-1406601002. I was able to read it without logging in, but in case you're not, here are some highlights.
During the 11 years that Argentine President Cristina Kirchner and her husband Nestor Kirchner have dominated national politics, they accumulated a small fortune.
Between 2003, when Mr. Kirchner was elected president, and 2010, when he died, the couple's net worth rose from $2. 5 million to $17.7 million, according to their annual filings with the federal anticorruption office. A lot of people in Argentina want to know where that money came from.
Yet it is an investigation involving a construction baron with close ties to the Kirchners that is creating one of the biggest stirs. A Buenos Aires prosecutor alleged that the businessman, Lazaro Baez, plotted to launder some $65 million through a global network of shell companies. The prosecutor, Jose Maria Campagnoli, said in an interview the money likely was diverted from government funds earmarked for public works and that Mr. Baez was acting on behalf of the Kirchners..
The prosecutor's investigation was cut short, however, when judicial authorities suspended him, accusing him of exceeding his jurisdiction and leaking information to the media. He denies the accusations, saying he is being persecuted for investigating corruption. He now is facing a judicial proceeding that could cost him his job.
Austral Construcciones SA, Mr. Beez's flagship construction company, was created weeks before Mr. Kirchner took office in 2003. Since the Kirchners moved into the Casa Rosada, the pink presidential palace in downtown Buenos Aires, Mr. Baez's company has received hundreds of millions of dollars in public-works contracts in Santa Cruz, becoming the province's top private-sector employer.
In April 2013, Argentine investigative journalist Jorge Lanata broadcast allegations about Mr. Baez's company on his popular news show. The program aired secretly recorded videotapes of Leonardo Faria, who said on the tapes that he managed a $5 billion fortune for Mr. Baez and acted as his courier.
In the tapes, the ponytailed, Ferrari-driving Mr. Faria said associates of Mr. Baez loaded bags of cash onto Mr. Baez's executive jet and carried them to Buenos Aires. There the money was taken to a financial firm informally called "La Rosadita," he said, just five blocks from the presidential Casa Rosada. There was too much cash to be counted by hand, he said, so it was weighed to determine its value, then sent abroad to tax havens. Mr. Faria also claimed to have played soccer and socialized with Mr. Kirchner.
Federico Elaskar, the owner of the financial firm, appeared on the program and backed up Mr. Faria's comments.
After the show aired, Messrs. Faria and Elaskar both retracted their statements, saying they had lied to Mr. Lanata. But the Buenos Aires prosecutor, Mr. Campagnoli, said his team verified their links to Mr. Baez and their involvement in an alleged money-laundering scheme that used a network of shell companies.
In a recent interview, Mr. Campagnoli alleged that Mr. Baez was a frontman for the Kirchners, diverting funds earmarked for public-works projects. He said he requested raids on the Kirchner residences to collect evidence. The request was denied by a lower-court judge.
By the way, I would not consider a reduction in value of 75%+ the other bondholders took to be a "haircut", I would consider it a decapitation!I consider it a theft, pure and simple. The Argentine government got 75% of the money the money for only 25% of the cost. Most corporations would have to declare bankruptcy, but all the Argentine government did was declare a default, and then get pissed off when not everyone went along with it. The pari passu contractual language was written by Argentina. All the judge is doing is enforcing the contract. Enforcement of contracts is only something the Argentines do if it suits them.
Tres3.
The language in the pari passu clause is clearly general and non-specific. It's right there in Yujin's link. It does not authorize blocking one creditor's payments to help another creditor. Doppel's claim that the judge just read the contract is more crapola. If the language was so clear, the judge's decision would not be challenged by the Euro bondholders.
What the judge did was interpret the clause to mean that if Argentina paid one creditor, it had to pay all, which in this case meant paying some creditors 30 cents on the dollar and others 100 cents. That's a biased interpretation of "equal treatment", clearly benefiting the holdout hedge funds.
The judge's bias was again on display in demanding a settlement with the holdouts despite the RUFO clause. If there was no other option, the judge's hard line would be more reasonable, because the holdouts do have a legal right to their payment. However there were other options, not the least of which was simply waiting until Dec. 31 for the RUFO clause to expire. The holdouts have waited a decade for payment, surely they could wait another 5 months. But apparently the judge couldn't.
Of course, some judicial bias is to be expected. But here, the judge was willing to risk harm not only to Argentina, but also the other creditors by blocking their payments. Why did the judge force events in the direction of default, knowing Argentina would never risk violating the RUFO clause? Aside from the bias, spite, arrogance and ideology are all likely factors as well. Complicity in helping Wall Street make $1 Billion on credit default swaps? Unproven, but given the bizarre rigidity demonstrated here, it seems like a possibility.
The language in the pari passu clause is clearly general and non-specific. It's right there in Yujin's link. It does not authorize blocking one creditor's payments to help another creditor. Doppel's claim that the judge just read the contract is more crapola. If the language was so clear, the judge's decision would not be challenged by the Euro bondholders.
The judge's bias was again on display in demanding a settlement with the holdouts despite the RUFO clause. If there was no other option, the judge's hard line would be more reasonable, because the holdouts do have a legal right to their payment. However there were other options, not the least of which was simply waiting until Dec. 31 for the RUFO clause to expire. The holdouts have waited a decade for payment, surely they could wait another 5 months. But apparently the judge couldn't.
Of course, some judicial bias is to be expected. But here, the judge was willing to risk harm not only to Argentina, but also the other creditors by blocking their payments. Why did the judge force events in the direction of default, knowing Argentina would never risk violating the RUFO clause? Aside from the bias, spite, arrogance and ideology are all likely factors as well. Complicity in helping Wall Street make $1 Billion on credit default swaps? Unproven, but given the bizarre rigidity demonstrated here, it seems like a possibility.We don't know how many, if any, Supreme Court justices wanted to hear this case when Argentina tried to appeal it. However, given that they decided 7 to 1 to allow bondholders to issue subpoenas to banks to trace Argentine assets abroad, I suspect most or all of the justices would have sided with Griesa and the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. In other words, this probably wasn't even close. Apparently RUFO is only triggered if the payment to the holdouts is voluntary, and compliance with a court order is not voluntary. It will be interesting to see if Argentina will settle after December 31, when the RUFO clause expires. I seriously doubt the Peronists will settle before the next election.
HappyGoLucky
08-04-14, 00:36
Washington Post today on the "weird default". Point number "3" is interesting considering the insurance the hedge funds bought against default.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/08/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-argentinas-weird-default/
The language in the pari passu clause is clearly general and non-specific. It's right there in Yujin's link. It does not authorize blocking one creditor's payments to help another creditor. Doppel's claim that the judge just read the contract is more crapola. If the language was so clear, the judge's decision would not be challenged by the Euro bondholders.
What the judge did was interpret the clause to mean that if Argentina paid one creditor, it had to pay all, which in this case meant paying some creditors 30 cents on the dollar and others 100 cents. That's a biased interpretation of "equal treatment", clearly benefiting the holdout hedge funds.
The judge's bias was again on display in demanding a settlement with the holdouts despite the RUFO clause. If there was no other option, the judge's hard line would be more reasonable, because the holdouts do have a legal right to their payment. However there were other options, not the least of which was simply waiting until Dec. 31 for the RUFO clause to expire. The holdouts have waited a decade for payment, surely they could wait another 5 months. But apparently the judge couldn't.
Of course, some judicial bias is to be expected. But here, the judge was willing to risk harm not only to Argentina, but also the other creditors by blocking their payments. Why did the judge force events in the direction of default, knowing Argentina would never risk violating the RUFO clause? Aside from the bias, spite, arrogance and ideology are all likely factors as well. Complicity in helping Wall Street make $1 Billion on credit default swaps? Unproven, but given the bizarre rigidity demonstrated here, it seems like a possibility.Esten, what do you think pari passu means? It is not open for interpretation as you falsely allege. Argentina wrote the clause and must live by the literal meaning, not an "interpretation". RUFO only applies if the payment is VOLUNTARY, not if the government is complying with an order. The order in the instant case was Judge Griesa's, supported by an Appeals Court, and the Supreme Court. We know that you hate Wall Street, but do not let your hatred lead to the same obfuscation as the Argentine Government. No one is blocking one person's payment to help another, and credit default swaps are nothing more than a form of insurance. In simplistic terms, which maybe you will understand, one insures his automobile against collision loss, and one insures his sovereign bonds against default loss.
Tres3.
Rockin Bob
08-04-14, 18:06
Esten, what do you think pari passu means? It is not open for interpretation as you falsely allege. Here again, one more blanket assertion without any evidence to back it up. And then a little name calling. The logic here is, I say so, so you're wrong.
Here's a couple of articles that examine the pari passu clause in depth.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/events/financialRegulation/LFR15L_Buchheit-(Pari-Passu-Clause-in-Sovereign-Debt-Instruments-Emory-Law-Journal). Pdf.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2397929
Seems to me the clause is very much open to interpretation.
From the Emory Law journal article:
"This leads us to the final question: how could a fallacious interpretation of.
A boilerplate clause-without a basis in law, or practice or commentary-have.
Taken even a shallow root in the minds of some market participants? It is true.
That the text of the pari passu clause itself is remarkably unconfiding about.
What the drafters were seeking to achieve with the provision, but that only.
Explains why it presented such an attractive target for creative explanations by.
Litigants in search of an effective remedy against a sovereign debtor. ".
Here again, one more blanket assertion without any evidence to back it up. And then a little name calling. The logic here is, I say so, so you're wrong.
Here's a couple of articles that examine the pari passu clause in depth.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/events/financialRegulation/LFR15L_Buchheit-(Pari-Passu-Clause-in-Sovereign-Debt-Instruments-Emory-Law-Journal). Pdf.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2397929
Seems to me the clause is very much open to interpretation.
From the Emory Law journal article:
"This leads us to the final question: how could a fallacious interpretation of.
A boilerplate clause-without a basis in law, or practice or commentary-have.
Taken even a shallow root in the minds of some market participants? It is true.
That the text of the pari passu clause itself is remarkably unconfiding about.
What the drafters were seeking to achieve with the provision, but that only.
Explains why it presented such an attractive target for creative explanations by.
Litigants in search of an effective remedy against a sovereign debtor. ".Are you saying that three separate courts, including SCOTUS, all came to a wrong conclusion based on a faulty interpretation? You are also conveniently forgetting that it was Argentina who put pari passau in the bond indenture and also subjected themselves to USA Law. Even with pari passau Argentina has successfully stolen a large sum of money.
Tres3
Rockin Bob
08-04-14, 19:56
Are you saying that three separate courts, including SCOTUS, all came to a wrong conclusion based on a faulty interpretation? You are also conveniently forgetting that it was Argentina who put pari passau in the bond indenture and also subjected themselves to USA Law. Even with pari passau Argentina has successfully stolen a large sum of money.
Tres3Jeez, Tres3, you think SCOTUS couldn't come to a wrong conclusion based on a faulty interpretation? That's precisely what Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia were put on the court to do!
Here's the way I see it: Paul Singer / ECM are bottom feeders, like debt collection agencies that buy up debts for pennies on the dollar and harrass people for the money. Here, what they need is to convince some judge to go along with a twisted interpretation of the law and then arrange it so that the legitimate holders of the exchange bonds are held hostage to their demands. Extortion, as Axel Kicillof put it.
Everybody got screwed equally by Argentina. They defaulted on all their bonds. 93% of the bondholders decided half a loaf (or a quarter, whatever) was better than none, and so they went for the exchange bonds. And they have been paid off equally under the new arrangement. Pari passu.
As for the holdouts, they should just accept the fact that they got screwed. Argentina is a serial defaulter, who the hell would buy their bonds in the first place? Default is the risk you take when you buy an Argentine bond. The holdouts are stuck with worthless bonds, they have been defaulted on, and now they come up with this legal chicanery to try and get some money (actually, a lot of money) out of them.
Seems what I read in the financial press is that most lawyers who deal with these issues are concerned that the rulings go against precedent and upset what till now was a stable system to deal with these matters. Many if not most question Judge Griesa's decision.
A contract is a contract is a contract. Boy, did everybody forget that in a New York minute a few years back in the financial crisis when the government bailed out the banks to the tune of how many trillions of dollars?
As for the holdouts, they should just accept the fact that they got screwed. Argentina is a serial defaulter, who the hell would buy their bonds in the first place? Default is the risk you take when you buy an Argentine bond. The holdouts are stuck with worthless bonds, they have been defaulted on, and now they come up with this legal chicanery to try and get some money (actually, a lot of money) out of them.Is it just me or does this not make a hell of a lot of sense?
Rockin Bob like other anti-liberal leftists believes it's OK to steal, as long as it's government doing the stealing. When that happens you blame the victim. It's the victim of the serial defaulter that's using "legal chicanery."
Hedge funds aren't the only holdouts. There are Argentine and European pensioners who also refuse to take a haircut. The Kirchneristas refer to them as mini-vultures.
Jeez, Tres3, you think SCOTUS couldn't come to a wrong conclusion based on a faulty interpretation? That's precisely what Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia were put on the court to do!The Supreme Court voted 7 to 1 to issue subpoenas to trace Argentine assets. Based on that, if they had decided to hear the appeal of Griesa's decision, you'd expect they'd vote 7 to 1 or 8 to 0 to uphold Griesa's ruling.
Jeez, Tres3, you think SCOTUS couldn't come to a wrong conclusion based on a faulty interpretation? That's precisely what Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia were put on the court to do!
Here's the way I see it: Paul Singer / ECM are bottom feeders, like debt collection agencies that buy up debts for pennies on the dollar and harrass people for the money. Here, what they need is to convince some judge to go along with a twisted interpretation of the law and then arrange it so that the legitimate holders of the exchange bonds are held hostage to their demands. Extortion, as Axel Kicillof put it.
Everybody got screwed equally by Argentina. They defaulted on all their bonds. 93% of the bondholders decided half a loaf (or a quarter, whatever) was better than none, and so they went for the exchange bonds. And they have been paid off equally under the new arrangement. Pari passu.
As for the holdouts, they should just accept the fact that they got screwed. Argentina is a serial defaulter, who the hell would buy their bonds in the first place? Default is the risk you take when you buy an Argentine bond. The holdouts are stuck with worthless bonds, they have been defaulted on, and now they come up with this legal chicanery to try and get some money (actually, a lot of money) out of them.
Seems what I read in the financial press is that most lawyers who deal with these issues are concerned that the rulings go against precedent and upset what till now was a stable system to deal with these matters. Many if not most question Judge Griesa's decision.
A contract is a contract is a contract. Boy, did everybody forget that in a New York minute a few years back in the financial crisis when the government bailed out the banks to the tune of how many trillions of dollars?A flower in the desert.
Rockin Bob
08-05-14, 00:08
Is it just me or does this not make a hell of a lot of sense?
Rockin Bob like other anti-liberal leftists believes it's OK to steal, as long as it's government doing the stealing. When that happens you blame the victim. It's the victim of the serial defaulter that's using "legal chicanery."
Hedge funds aren't the only holdouts. There are Argentine and European pensioners who also refuse to take a haircut. The Kirchneristas refer to them as mini-vultures.
The Supreme Court voted 7 to 1 to issue subpoenas to trace Argentine assets. Based on that, if they had decided to hear the appeal of Griesa's decision, you'd expect they'd vote 7 to 1 or 8 to 0 to uphold Griesa's ruling.What the hell is an anti-liberal leftist? Start right in with the labeling and name-calling. He's a leftist. Therefore he's wrong.
Where did I say it's ok to steal? Argentina defaulted on its bonds for a number of reasons, and sure, a corrupt government siphoning off money was one of the reasons. But you make it out as if they intentionally defaulted. They had no other choice to default. Why would they want to default if it keeps them out of capital markets in the future? It's in their interest to keep getting IMF loans so they can keep diverting the money into their own pockets. They defaulted originally from a combination of mismangement, bad policies, and a contraction of the economy.
Again, to make it clear: sovereign debt is subject to risk, especially since if there's a default there's not much you can do but get an unenforceable judgment. Nobody put a gun to anybody's head and forced them to buy Argentine bonds. For a few extra percentage points, people take the risk, but it's not exactly a prudent decision in a case like Argentina.
Countries, like individuals, go bankrupt for a variety of reasons, some their own fault, others not. Would you like to go back to the days of debtor's prisons?
To say Paul Singer is a victim is laughable. He's just a bottom feeding shyster who's only stock in trade is getting the courts to issue a ruling in his favor. He never lent money to Argentina, he just picked up the debt for pennies on the dollar. Vulture is the perfect description for him.
In individual bankruptcy, you reach a settlement in accordance with procedures set out in the law and then you move on. That's the way sovereign debt should be dealt with, and pretty much what happened: Argentina was broke, so they defaulted, and then reached a deal with the creditors to pay them back what they could. And they have made the payments, are making the payments, but the payments are in a New York bank which can't distribute them because of the judge's ruling.
If I'm a holder of the exchange bonds, I want my money, and I don't want to see it held up because of the chicanery of speculators. Why should one speculator manage to defeat the interests of all the other bondholders?
As for saying the Supreme Court would have upheld Griesa's ruling, well, yeah. Not hearing the case is the same thing.
Rockin Bob, You're arguing about things that happened ten years ago, and I don't disagree with you. Argentina couldn't repay its debt. With respect to the current issue, there are two reasons Argentina doesn't pay the holdouts:
1. Because the Kirchneristas believe refusing to pay will improve their electoral prospects, and
2. Because the Kirchneristas, like Esten, believe it's more important to punish hedge funds than to do what's best for Argentina and best for people in developing countries. See my post #1592 below.
To answer your question, anti-liberals believe government should prevail over individual rights and the rule of law.
government should prevail over individual rights and the rule of law.How can government prevail over the rule of law, or vice versa, when government creates laws? And who determines what are 'individual rights'? Just curious here.
How can government prevail over the rule of law, or vice versa, when government creates laws? And who determines what are 'individual rights'? Just curious here.For the past few years Cristina has been changing the law by issuing "decree's" . She has never been restricted by the law because she changes it to suit herself. When ever she wants to do something that is illegal (like sack the reserves to use as a checking account) she issues a decree. Some of her most popular social programs are decrees and as she has repeatedly pointed out, they are likely to stop when she leaves office because the next president is not obligated to continue the plans (as they would be if they were laws). This is one reason she has so much support among the poor. There is a lot of pressure on the vice president lately for illegal dealing before he became the vice. There is even more evidence of theft and corruption against Cristina and her Ex. Yet I don't see any one investigating her because she controls the judges. The truth is, there is no law here. Its more who you know and how much money you have.
How can government prevail over the rule of law, or vice versa, when government creates laws?Dickhead, You are right. That said, Gandolf50 below provides excellent examples of what I was trying to express.
And who determines what are 'individual rights'? Just curious here.I do, because I'm omniscient. Here's a description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_liberties.
We don't know how many, if any, Supreme Court justices wanted to hear this case when Argentina tried to appeal it. However, given that they decided 7 to 1 to allow bondholders to issue subpoenas to banks to trace Argentine assets abroad, I suspect most or all of the justices would have sided with Griesa and the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. In other words, this probably wasn't even close. Apparently RUFO is only triggered if the payment to the holdouts is voluntary, and compliance with a court order is not voluntary. It will be interesting to see if Argentina will settle after December 31, when the RUFO clause expires. I seriously doubt the Peronists will settle before the next election.Yes it will be interesting to see what happens after the RUFO clause expires. It appears to be Argentina's only (legal) leg to stand on. If Argentina still doesn't pay the holdouts, I will be more inclined to agree with the characterization of theft. Apparently some banks have expressed interest in buying out the holdouts bonds; this may be a practical approach to deal with two sides who are stubbornly determined not to bend to the other.
Argentina fails to tell folks that the bank cannot comply with the judge's order to not pay the "interest" owed the exchange bond holders, and return the money, because Argentina refuses to issue the required transfer instructions to the bank for the return of the money to Argentina. As a result, the money sits in limbo, and the bank is caught in a "catch 22". Meanwhile Argentina falsely claims that it is not in default because it has made the required "interest" payments to the exchange bond holders. Argentina also continues to cloud the issue by citing the RUFO clause. RUFO only applies to "voluntary" payments, and there is nothing voluntary about a court order.
Meanwhile, the Argentine LIVs applaud Cristina for standing up to the "vultures". Argentina has stolen from the international financial community on seven previous occasions by defaulting on debt. You would think that the lenders would learn that Argentina is a bad credit risk. Unfortunately, the Argentine government will keep stealing as long as some fool is willing to lend them money. P. T. Barnum said it all.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-threatened-contempt-order-u-000052587.html
Tres3.
Draw your own conclusions from this link.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/13/us-argentina-debt-idUSKBN0GD1A920140813
Tres3.
This is becoming Cristina's salvation. All of her economic disasters can now be blamed on the "Vultures". She and all the thieves from the FPV can point their fingers and say "Its not our fault! This is her "Malvinas"! Whats worse is that most of the country believe or want to believe this is true. I predict that another FPV candidate wins next years presidential election. I think even Evita would be crying if she could see this mess the country is in!
It looks as if Argentina has given up all hope of a settlement favorable to them (the dream world scenario), so now they have decided to shit in their mess kit.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-calls-hedge-funds-debt-135559467.html
Tres3.
It looks as if Cristina is attempting to get as much political mileage, and distraction, as she can while the topic is still hot.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-fernandez-calls-holdouts-greedy-012827317.html
Tres3.
The funny thing here is that both Cristina and Nestor started out as "vultures". They would buy overdue mortgages for pennies, evict the people and then resell or rent the properties. They still own (according to their own disclosure they file every year) 28 of these property's. How is this so different from Elliot Singer and friends?
I guess that the government has decided that they have nothing to lose.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-19/argentina-to-pay-bondholders-in-local-account-to-skirt-ruling.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
More on Argentina's default and the roles Cristina and her late husband played.
http://www.businessinsider.com/singer-after-kirchner-funds-2014-8
Tres3.
It looks as if Cristina and her cohorts have given up all hope on the rest of the world and are concentrating on Argentine politics.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-started-totally-rogue-175544375.html
Tres3.
It looks as if Cristina and her cohorts have given up all hope on the rest of the world and are concentrating on Argentine politics.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-started-totally-rogue-175544375.html
Tres3.Maybe they are that stupid or are just delaying the payment. With a US gun to the head of each creditor, that scenario isn't going to happen.
they are that stupid That says it ALL!
Daddy Rulz
08-21-14, 21:02
Maybe they are that stupid or are just delaying the payment. With a US gun to the head of each creditor, that scenario isn't going to happen.13.6 today and rising.
The funny thing here is that both Cristina and Nestor started out as "vultures". They would buy overdue mortgages for pennies, evict the people and then resell or rent the properties. They still own (according to their own disclosure they file every year) 28 of these property's. How is this so different from Elliot Singer and friends?Irritating, smelly, dirty, noisy, menacing, prone to fly in & swipe, etc. Yes, no difference.
It's not like Paul Singer's hedge fund actually helped Argentina by buying their bonds, and is just trying to get paid back. No, it bought defaulted bonds, dirt cheap. And is now insisting on full payment of the huge profits from those bonds, plus interest, regardless of any consequences.
The collateral damage may now potentially include Citibank, which could lose their Argentina banking license if it complies with the order of US Judge Griesa (whose rulings are helping Singer). Citigroup has appealed Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments from Argentina.
This is not to mention the negative effect all of this is likely to have on future US-Argentina collaborations and investments, basically driving Argentina to instead make deals with China.
It appears Paul Singer will go to any length to collect his profits, and (in his view) damned be any adverse consequence for the people of Argentina, the other bondholders, the banks, and other US investors.
More on Argentina's debt debacle.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/holdout-creditor-calls-u-court-hold-argentina-contempt-131343187--sector.html
Tres3.
It's not like Paul Singer's hedge fund actually helped Argentina by buying their bonds, and is just trying to get paid back. No, it bought defaulted bonds, dirt cheap. And is now insisting on full payment of the huge profits from those bonds, plus interest, regardless of any consequences.
The collateral damage may now potentially include Citibank, which could lose their Argentina banking license if it complies with the order of US Judge Griesa (whose rulings are helping Singer). Citigroup has appealed Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments from Argentina.
This is not to mention the negative effect all of this is likely to have on future US-Argentina collaborations and investments, basically driving Argentina to instead make deals with China.
It appears Paul Singer will go to any length to collect his profits, and (in his view) damned be any adverse consequence for the people of Argentina, the other bondholders, the banks, and other US investors.While what you say is true, Argentina in the Form of its wondrous president Cristina feels that they are not obligated to pay ANYONE what they are really owed. But at the same time they want to borrow more money. Griesa and I assume the New York legal system is sick and tired of Argentina's shenanigans and would like nothing more then to see it all go away. No one is interested in cutting them any slack since their only interest is to rob and defraud. Singers group took a chance. One that might never pay off. Cristina is only making interest payments with huge sums that are due in the future when she will not be in the hot seat. And as I have pointed out before Cristina and Singer are both Vultures, but Singer has his house in order. Cristinas house is a disaster!
It's not like Paul Singer's hedge fund actually helped Argentina by buying their bonds, and is just trying to get paid back. No, it bought defaulted bonds, dirt cheap. And is now insisting on full payment of the huge profits from those bonds, plus interest, regardless of any consequences.
The collateral damage may now potentially include Citibank, which could lose their Argentina banking license if it complies with the order of US Judge Griesa (whose rulings are helping Singer). Citigroup has appealed Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments from Argentina.
This is not to mention the negative effect all of this is likely to have on future US-Argentina collaborations and investments, basically driving Argentina to instead make deals with China.
It appears Paul Singer will go to any length to collect his profits, and (in his view) damned be any adverse consequence for the people of Argentina, the other bondholders, the banks, and other US investors.Like to spin things and ignore the truth Esten?
An investor bought bonds at a discount and the bond issuer has the financial ability to pay the bonds in full. Since the bond issuer has the financial ability to pay the bonds in full, the investor wants to be paid in full. What a crazy concept.
Everyone has stated that Argentina can pay Singer in full without it affecting the country's agreement with the other bond holders. Argentina has the financial ability to easily pay Singer.
If any action is taken against Citibank, it will be appealed and reversed with the next administration.
Do you really believe Argentina is going to do more business with China than it already would do? China is pushing hard to do deals in Latin America and they are having success. That success will continue regardless of these bonds or anything else the US does or doesn't do.
Thomaso276
08-22-14, 11:48
"This is not to mention the negative effect all of this is likely to have on future US-Argentina collaborations and investments, basically driving Argentina to instead make deals with China. ".
What deals / agreements with USA? Russia, Iran, China, Venezuala are the preferred partners for this bunch of thieves.
The 2001 default was the seventh (7th) time Argentina has defaulted in the last 100 years. Those are more defaults than any other country now in existence. I will not argue the relative stupidity of international lenders who keep lending to Argentina. After all, Argentina did not steal from a house with the front door locked. They stole from a house with the front door wide open. Can anyone blame them for stealing when thievery is part of the Argentine DNA? I have to chuckle when Cristina calls the 2001 default, and subsequent issuance of sharply reduced "exchange" bond robbery a "restructuring". I wonder what spin she puts on her theft?
Tres3.
Retire N Trave
08-22-14, 15:58
Per Bloomberg, another peso devaluation expected - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-22/argentina-s-peso-weakening-at-fastest-pace-since-january.html.
This has become so convoluted that Cristina may reach her goal of obfuscating the matter so much that the average Argentine LIV does not know who is at fault and just believes the government propaganda.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-22/argentina-s-exchange-offer-may-not-be-clever-enough-yet?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
"Talks Lift Hopes of Small Argentine Bondholders"
Hedge Funds Leading the Battle for Full Repayment Aren't the Only Holdouts.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/new-york-talks-lift-hopes-of-small-argentine-bondholders-1404688383
"Argentina Bond Fight Hits TV as Holdouts Cite 97-Year-Old"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-20/argentina-bond-fight-hits-tv-as-holdouts-cite-97-year-old.html
Paul Singer's Next Trick Could Make Argentina Angrier Than The Time He Took Its Boat
More on Argentina's default and the roles Cristina and her late husband played.
Paul Singer's Next Trick Could Make Argentina Angrier Than The Time He Took Its Boat
http://www.businessinsider.com/singer-after-kirchner-funds-2014-8
Tres3.I don't get it. I think what Tres posted above induced Esten's latest response. Tres provided a link to an article that describes an attempt by a hedge fund manager, Paul Singer, to locate $65 million hidden on behalf of the Kirchner's in shell corporations. Esten knows that Cristina is using the debt issue to whip up a populist fervor, putting politics ahead of good sense. And he knows ordinary Argentine and European pensioners who didn't accept Argentina's buyout proposal are getting fucked. His response is to damn Paul Singer. Esten, are you so caught up in your distaste for Wall Street that your priorities have become skewed?
What deals / agreements with USA? Russia, Iran, China, Venezuala are the preferred partners for this bunch of thieves.Exactly, and you can thank Paul Singer and US vulture funds for helping drive Argentina in this direction. There are geopolitical consequences to Wall Street greed.
There are good, positive purposes of Wall Street. But there are some Wall Street activities that are bad, and some that are sleazy.
No one is questioning the legality of the actions of Paul Singer and the vulture funds. But just because it's legal doesn't make it right. And that's where many people have an issue with the vulture funds, not just in Argentina. They buy distressed debt, and instead of working with the debtor, they work against the debtor to extract as much profit as possible. In Singer's case, Argentina could yield a 1600% profit. Even better than the profits he made off Peru and the Congo, from whom he forced payments with similar tactics. Even though the debtors could pay him, they are worse off because of his actions.
So what category do the vulture funds fall under: Good, Bad or Sleazy? Here's what another hedge fund manager, Kyle Bass, has to say about Paul Singer:
The bottom line is, he's a tremendous distressed investor. And he's a profiteer at other peoples expense.http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-07/argentinas-vulture-paul-singer-is-wall-street-freedom-fighter
Thomaso276
08-25-14, 01:53
Exactly, and you can thank Paul Singer and US vulture funds for helping drive Argentina in this direction. There are geopolitical consequences to Wall Street greed.Was Singer around when Argentina backed Nazi Germany? This has always been bizzaro land. I am not a fan of hedge funds, but Argentina cannot be trusted.
There are many sides to this argument. There are hold outs and then there are opportunists Like Singer. We all know how Singer works. Then there are the 90 year old retires who invested 45 k in these bonds hoping for a return so they can continue to live comfortably once (IF) they collect. They are HOLDING OUT for the return of their hard earned money. One was profiled in Clarin the other day. These are people who really need their money. My point being is that not all of the "holdouts" are "Vultures" or opportunists. Many are normal people who just want their money without a huge "Haircut" . Maybe the courts should differentiate between the two? The bottom line is that Argentina DOES NOT WANT TO PAY!! They are really no better then a group of white collar thieves. As I pointed out earlier, Cristina and Nestor made their money the same way that Singer does. If any one has really been following this disaster, this government is not only giving people a haircut, but then want to pay in deferred payments that they WILL PROBABLY NEVER FINISH BEING BE PAID! . They are now only making interest payments. Principal payments start in 2016 AFTER THIS GROUP OF THIEVES IS GONE! That and the fact is that this group has only started trying to put its house in order is so that they CAN BORROW MORE MONEY! If they can't make these payments. How can they afford to pay more payments? This government does not really invest in the future of the country. They use money to put out fires and to pay subsidies to the poor so they can get re elected. Typical third world tin horn dictator bullsh*t.
AllIWantIsLove
08-25-14, 13:23
Does anyone know if Singer's interest in this is purely personal, or is he perhaps fighting on behalf of investors in his hedge fund? Was the Clarin article about people who hold the bonds directly or about people who have investments in the Singer hedge fund? Usually hedge funds have investors, right? Some of whom might be fat cats but some of whom might not be.
Bob.
AllIWantIsLove
08-25-14, 13:34
<snip>
No one is questioning the legality of the actions of Paul Singer and the vulture funds. But just because it's legal doesn't make it right. <snip>Good point Esten. I agree. But how do we make business decisions on what's right rather than what's legal? Who would make those decisions? And how? Based on their own moral code? Or maybe they would take a poll for each case?
And how would people make any kind of agreement with any level of confidence that it was consistent with the moral code that would be applied should some third party need to arbitrate a disagreement?
I guess we could write down a moral code, but isn't that exactly what our legal code is supposed to be?
Bob.
Does anyone know if Singer's interest in this is purely personal, or is he perhaps fighting on behalf of investors in his hedge fund? Was the Clarin article about people who hold the bonds directly or about people who have investments in the Singer hedge fund? Usually hedge funds have investors, right? Some of whom might be fat cats but some of whom might not be.
Bob.He has investors as well as his own money involved. As far as the Argentine bonds are concerned who knows what the percentages are. Cristina makes it look like it is just him. They tend to over look that there are other hold outs. Many of them Argentinos.
There are good, positive purposes of Wall Street. But there are some Wall Street activities that are bad, and some that are sleazy.
No one is questioning the legality of the actions of Paul Singer and the vulture funds. But just because it's legal doesn't make it right. And that's where many people have an issue with the vulture funds, not just in Argentina. They buy distressed debt, and instead of working with the debtor, they work against the debtor to extract as much profit as possible. In Singer's case, Argentina could yield a 1600% profit. Even better than the profits he made off Peru and the Congo, from whom he forced payments with similar tactics. Even though the debtors could pay him, they are worse off because of his actions.
So what category do the vulture funds fall under: Good, Bad or Sleazy? Here's what another hedge fund manager, Kyle Bass, has to say about Paul Singer:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-07/argentinas-vulture-paul-singer-is-wall-street-freedom-fighterArgentina is worse off because of Argentina's actions. Argentina could have easily paid Singer a long time ago and been done with this issue without any damage to their credit. But no, they had to throw a hissy fit, blame everyone else and refuse to negotiate in good faith. Argentina and Argentina alone is responsible for the default.
I regard Kyle Bass as one of the top money managers in the world, but Argentina's US attorney was Kyle Bass's attorney and he released him to work with Argentina. Why would Bass do that? Bass's fund has made a significant investment in Argentinian bonds. Bass also went on record that Argentina would win in court. He was wrong. Kyle Bass is just a little prejudiced in this situation.
Good point Esten. I agree. But how do we make business decisions on what's right rather than what's legal? Who would make those decisions? And how? Based on their own moral code? Or maybe they would take a poll for each case?
And how would people make any kind of agreement with any level of confidence that it was consistent with the moral code that would be applied should some third party need to arbitrate a disagreement?
I guess we could write down a moral code, but isn't that exactly what our legal code is supposed to be?
Bob.What is right or moral about Argentina reneging on a debt when they have the assets to pay the debt? Argentina isn't someone who went bankrupt because of an unexpected medical expense. They spent money like drunken sailors, didn't pay their bar tab even though they had money in their pockets and now they whine to the world about being forced to pay a small percentage of the tab. Argentina is a serial defaulter and deserves no one's pity or help. Argentina should get their act together or else continue to suffer the consequences of their reckless spending. Anyone loaning money to Argentina right now should have their partner wear an I'm with stupid t shirt.
Apparently Cristina and her cohorts want to practice a scorched earth policy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/argentina-revoked-bny-mellon-s-banking-license-capitanich-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
More on Argentina debt default.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/soros-s-bond-bet-revealed-in-lawsuit-in-london-argentina-credit.html
Tres3.
Apparently Cristina and her cohorts want to practice a scorched earth policy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/argentina-revoked-bny-mellon-s-banking-license-capitanich-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Revoking the authorization for two officials. Man these geopolitical repercussions Esten warned us about are really something. It will take BNY Mellon all of five minutes to authorize two other officials to act in their capacity in Argentina.
Anyone notice in the second article that Hayman Capital (Kyle Bass) are mentioned as suing to get interest income payments on the bonds?
The interesting fact that the media does not report, and the Argentine government conveniently overlooks, is that Bank Mellon NY has received NO instructions from Argentina, to wire transfer the money in compliance with the federal district judge's order. The only instructions that BMNY has received is to pay the bond interest to the "haircut" bondholders, but not the "hold out" creditors. The judge has ordered BMNY that if they pay one, they must pay all, or be held in contempt. Contrary to the Argentine government, BMNY will not break the law, and cannot legally return the money to Argentina, because Argentina refuses to give them wire transfer instructions. BMNY finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Something tells me that once this debacle is all over, BMNY will not do any more business with the Argentine government.
Tres3.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-says-us-based-bny-164656114.html
Argentina is revoking BNY Mellon's authorization to operate in Argentina. Oh wait,
"BNY Mellon has no retail operations in Argentina".
Tres, I doubt Mellon wants to do any business with Argentina.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-says-us-based-bny-164656114.html
Argentina is revoking BNY Mellon's authorization to operate in Argentina. Oh wait,
"BNY Mellon has no retail operations in Argentina".
Tres, I doubt Mellon wants to do any business with Argentina.LOL! I doubt any one in New York or even any one in the USA Wants anything more to do with Argentina! Except for a few of us of course. .
Good point Esten. I agree. But how do we make business decisions on what's right rather than what's legal? Who would make those decisions? And how? Based on their own moral code? Or maybe they would take a poll for each case?
And how would people make any kind of agreement with any level of confidence that it was consistent with the moral code that would be applied should some third party need to arbitrate a disagreement?
I guess we could write down a moral code, but isn't that exactly what our legal code is supposed to be?Well we all make our own decisions in life, don't we. I imagine a criteria of right action is some combination of motive and effect. Our legal code is the law, but it is imperfect and incomplete, and should not be the sole basis of our actions.
Retire N Trave
08-28-14, 17:00
Per Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/deeper-default-pain-looms-as-reserves-shrink-argentina-credit.html expect peso weakness until January when Argentina is expected to reach an agreement.
Daddy Rulz
08-28-14, 21:29
Per Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/deeper-default-pain-looms-as-reserves-shrink-argentina-credit.html expect peso weakness until January when Argentina is expected to reach an agreement.Don't expect to see the Peso strengthen in January. That's right in the middle of summer vacations. People can't get nearly enough dollars to travel with from the official sites and that scarcity always drives the peso down.
The rate in late January is consistently the weakest peso of the year.
I'm not an economist nor do I play one on TV but there are a finite number of actual dollars in the country and competition for them is never higher than January. With everything that has happened this year we have just now pulled past where they were in early February. Adjusted for inflation, this 14.1 is still less than the 12.4 or so of January / February.
DR.
Wild Walleye
08-29-14, 11:18
Don't expect to see the Peso strengthen in January. That's right in the middle of summer vacations. People can't get nearly enough dollars to travel with from the official sites and that scarcity always drives the peso down.
The rate in late January is consistently the weakest peso of the year.
I'm not an economist nor do I play one on TV but there are a finite number of actual dollars in the country and competition for them is never higher than January. With everything that has happened this year we have just now pulled past where they were in early February. Adjusted for inflation, this 14.1 is still less than the 12.4 or so of January / February.
DR.DR. Great insights.
Since Kiciloff left New York with no deal (no surprise) and the reek of the "independent" private banking sector proposal started to emanate, you could tell that the fix was in and the CFK Mob showed its hand. One of the reasons why the holdouts are pressing so hard is to force the country's hand before it gets more freedom of movement when the key restriction lapses come the end of the year. Logically, you'd think that they'd have been better off with a wink and a nod and just waiting until January but, they needed to put real consequences in CFK's path and they knew that Argentina being Argentina, there was the possibility of s sweetheart deal (I. E. CFK violates the provision through smoke, mirrors, slight of hand and complete lack of integrity and thumbs her nose at the saps that accepted the swap).
Now, the consequences have been meted out and CFK and company seem to be weathering the storm (remember, they don't give a sh*t about anyone other than themselves) so, it'll be interesting to see how the viper deals with the holdouts come January. The country is in default, what more can Griesa do?
I had thought (and I think I posted to this effect) that I expected the bottom for the peso to be 10:1 (ish). The markets all expect further devaluation and the spreads between the official and blue rates have been widening drastically (an indication of market expectations for the official rate to fall). Last January (going from memory), the spread between the official and blue rates was between 300 and 400 basis points, before the devaluation. Right now, the spread is around 600 basis points.
Wild Walleye
08-29-14, 11:30
The interesting fact that the media does not report, and the Argentine government conveniently overlooks, is that Bank Mellon NY has received NO instructions from Argentina, to wire transfer the money in compliance with the federal district judge's order. The only instructions that BMNY has received is to pay the bond interest to the "haircut" bondholders, but not the "hold out" creditors. The judge has ordered BMNY that if they pay one, they must pay all, or be held in contempt. Contrary to the Argentine government, BMNY will not break the law, and cannot legally return the money to Argentina, because Argentina refuses to give them wire transfer instructions. BMNY finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Something tells me that once this debacle is all over, BMNY will not do any more business with the Argentine government.
Tres3.This is why so few large US financial institutions actively invest in Argentina.
More on the Argentina debt fiasco.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/argentina-s-abnormal-default-still-hurts-as-losses-swell.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
The below link says that CFK's "Paradise" leave something to be desired.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/corn-heists-turning-grain-port-into-argentina-s-chicago.html
Tres3.
The below link says that CFK's "Paradise" leave something to be desired.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/corn-heists-turning-grain-port-into-argentina-s-chicago.html
Tres3.I don't see the Chicago comparison. One is a bunch of gang cliques killing each other and the other is a weak government giving rise to opportunist thugs.
This is why so few large US financial institutions actively invest in Argentina.Another reason banks don't like Argentina is that Argentina requires that all banks "invest" 50% of their deposits in Argentine paper. And then the Government (Argentina) tries to micromanage how the bank operates. That and there is a tax on all deposits over $1. 000 p and a tax on checks, and then there is a additional IVA charge on each credit card payment (after you have already paid IVA on the purchase!) , etc. Etc. Its a accounting nightmare and then most Argies won't use the banks because of a mandatory monthly "fee" (state mandated "insurance" etc. Etc.) that is more then 50 pesos a month last time I checked.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/168626/minimum-wage-increased-31-to-4760-pesos
Today La Presidenta announces the minimum wage will increase 31% to 4760 ARS per month.
Up from 200 ARS in 2003.
Argentina's minimum wage now "highest in Latin America and that, measured in dollars, Argentine workers could purchase much more than their counterparts in Brazil or Uruguay. ".
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/168626/minimum-wage-increased-31-to-4760-pesos
Today La Presidenta announces the minimum wage will increase 31% to 4760 ARS per month.
Up from 200 ARS in 2003.
Argentina's minimum wage now "highest in Latin America and that, measured in dollars, Argentine workers could purchase much more than their counterparts in Brazil or Uruguay. ".That's bullshit (but you knew that). That might be true if you converted to dollars at CFK's rate but not at the market rate. Costa Rica and Panamá are both higher, at the market rate.
Not sure where to post this, but I'm just wondering if you expats are all secretly wishing for an economic collapse? Seems you would all be empowered by your hard currency and the misery of Argentinians.
I think most ex-pats are openly wishing for an economic collapse. That's how I discovered the place to begin with.
Not sure where to post this, but I'm just wondering if you expats are all secretly wishing for an economic collapse? Seems you would all be empowered by your hard currency and the misery of Argentinians.I personally would like to see that house of cards collapse only so Cristina can eat her words. I already feel bad for the average Argie family. As for my "empowerment" , I was better of when the rate was three to one. I lived very well on 500 U $the a month then.
I think most ex-pats are openly wishing for an economic collapse. That's how I discovered the place to begin with.I think it is more along the lines of waiting for the inevitable Argentina economic collapse. It is like waiting for the sun to come up, except that you don't know the exact time.
Member #3320
09-03-14, 22:03
Not sure where to post this, but I'm just wondering if you expats are all secretly wishing for an economic collapse? Seems you would all be empowered by your hard currency and the misery of Argentinians.Inever felt any advantage vis a vis how things were back then for me in 2007 - my first ever trip to BA.
But lately in last 2 months or so, I have felt the advantage for the very first time ever. In the sense, the inflation in prices ( be it chica rates or grocery) is not equally proprotional to the blue rate :- to my advantage.
Mind you. This is for the for the first time ever in last 2 months and don't know how long it is going to last, this way.
Looks like Judge Griesa accomplished little more than creating a lose-lose situation for everyone.
The holdouts still aren't getting paid.
Interest payments were blocked to several creditors.
Those creditors are suing the banks to get their money.
The banks now risk losing business in Argentina.
What a mess. Oh wait, Griesa's actions will help Wall Street collect about $1 Billion in swaps payouts. Which were triggered by Griesa's forced default when he blocked Argentina's payments.
Here's what some are saying:
Financial Times writer Martin Wolf
Argentinas creditors should make every effort to protect themselves from the vagaries of American judges. Fleeing US jurisdiction would seem an extremely sensible move.
Investment Advisor and Economic Trend Blogger Mike Shedlock
The problem in this case is US judges think they can tell sovereign nations whether they can or cannot default. I find that both arrogant and ridiculous.
Looks like Judge Griesa accomplished little more than creating a lose-lose situation for everyone.
The holdouts still aren't getting paid.
Interest payments were blocked to several creditors.
Those creditors are suing the banks to get their money.
The banks now risk losing business in Argentina.
What a mess. Oh wait, Griesa's actions will help Wall Street collect about $1 Billion in swaps payouts. Which were triggered by Griesa's forced default when he blocked Argentina's payments.
Here's what some are saying:
Financial Times writer Martin Wolf
Investment Advisor and Economic Trend Blogger Mike ShedlockWhat a crock. You're down to using an investment adviser to justify saying Griesa has failed? Do you have any clue how ridiculously easy it is to become an investment advisor? It takes a massive score of 73 out of 100. For those who haven't been in school in a long time, that is a D score on an A-F scale. The holdouts will get paid and the bank doesn't even have a branch in Argentina. These guys sound like the Federal Reserve officials that blame American for hoarding cash. I am not kidding. Throughout the world saving is a considered a good thing, but now it is being blamed for low inflation. The fallacy there is that low inflation is being considered a bad thing. With Fed officials like this, who needs ISIS.
Griesa's actions will help the holdouts get paid, because Argentina damn sure wasn't going to do it without being forced to.
I was in Newport over the Labor Day holiday. While driving down Bellvue Avenue, and looking at the beautiful old mansions, could not help but think of Esten. If Esten were in charge, the mansions would be bulldozed down and replaced with cookie cutter housing projects. Of course all this would be done in the name of "income equality". Suing to stop this, would not be a problem because the Federal Judiciary would have been banned from having jurisdiction over Federal projects.
Tres3.
I was in Newport over the Labor Day holiday. While driving down Bellvue Avenue, and looking at the beautiful old mansions, could not help but think of Esten. If Esten were in charge, the mansions would be bulldozed down and replaced with cookie cutter housing projects. Of course all this would be done in the name of "income equality". Suing to stop this, would not be a problem because the Federal Judiciary would have been banned from having jurisdiction over Federal projects.
Tres3.No, citing historical preservation, environmental protection, recycling, etc. , Esten would advocate that the mansions be partitioned into rent-controlled and / or rent-subsidized apartments for low income tenants who, following thousands of historical examples, would slowly destroy the properties until they were uninhabitable, at which point Esten would vociferously deplore the sub-standard living conditions in which these poor unfortunate individuals were subjected and demand that they be given new houses to destroy, all in the name of "Social Justice".
In the mean time, property tax receipts would plummet, no doubt leading the city into a fiscal morass i.e. Detroit.
Of course this doesn't make any sense EXCEPT to liberals who are buying the votes of "these poor unfortunate individuals".
My bet is that liberals could completely destroy any city's historic mansion neighborhood in less than a decade, all while being repeatedly re-elected to office.
Thanks,
Jax.
Retire N Trave
09-05-14, 16:59
http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2014/09/04/soros-signals-argentinas-shale-is-biggest-place-to-be/ - interesting article on Chevron and George Soros looking past current problems.
http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2014/09/04/soros-signals-argentinas-shale-is-biggest-place-to-be/ - interesting article on Chevron and George Soros looking past current problems.So is Kyle Bass. That is why Bass basically loaned his attorney to Argentina to fight the hedge funds.
More obfuscation from CFK's government.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-05/argentina-trumpeting-demand-for-swap-that-may-not-exist.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
More obfuscation from CFK's government.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-05/argentina-trumpeting-demand-for-swap-that-may-not-exist.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.She is accustomed to lying to her uneducated, unwashed masses here in Argentina. Most of them believe her, so she thinks every one else will. Its all smoke and mirrors and a awfully lot of unadulterated BULLSHIT! She tells you want SHE wants you to believe, not what is true or what is actually happening.
Thomaso276
09-07-14, 21:06
Read today that K & K are keeping inflation vs the alternative of a crash. Does this make sense? Any economists out there? Dickhead?
Retire N Trave
09-10-14, 13:50
Situation in Venezuela looks unsustainable per Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/hugo-chavez-s-absence-felt-on-wall-street-bond-desks.html and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-09/venezuelan-inflation-slows-for-third-consecutive-month-in-august.html. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to fall and the US dollar is getting stronger making it even tougher on Venezuela. Anyhow, if Venezuela does default the news will probably be treated as "wave of defaults hits South America" due to Argentina's current default.
Situation in Venezuela looks unsustainable per Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/hugo-chavez-s-absence-felt-on-wall-street-bond-desks.html and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-09/venezuelan-inflation-slows-for-third-consecutive-month-in-august.html. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to fall and the US dollar is getting stronger making it even tougher on Venezuela. Anyhow, if Venezuela does default the news will probably be treated as "wave of defaults hits South America" due to Argentina's current default.I don't see how they could default with all the oil they send to the US for refinement. Griesa set the precedent.
I don't see how they could default with all the oil they send to the US for refinement. Griesa set the precedent.Isn't that oil refined in the US because the US refineries can process the heavy crude? I would imagine a lot of that oil is sent back to Venezuela and sold for 2 cents / litre.
Retire N Trave
09-10-14, 18:06
Per Bloomberg Venezuela oil exports to US are very weakening greatly.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/venezuela-oil-exports-to-u-s-hit-lowest-rate-since-1985.html a.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-04/venezuela-selloff-worsens-as-u-s-oil-exports-sink-andes-credit.html
Information and views on Venezuela oil export problems - http://www.panamericanworld.com/en/article/venezuelas-oil-price-falls-its-lowest-level-three-years.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/09/06/4332141/andres-oppenheimer-obamas-plan.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/08/30/4319013/andres-oppenheimer-venezuela-from.html
Meanwhile, the USA has recently passed Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producer in the world.
Isn't that oil refined in the US because the US refineries can process the heavy crude? I would imagine a lot of that oil is sent back to Venezuela and sold for 2 cents / litre.I believe the oil is processed at a cost of about $2. 50 a gallon before it's sent back to Venezuela and sold for pennies a gallon. US holders of Venezuela debt could easily lien something in that process.
Isn't that oil refined in the US because the US refineries can process the heavy crude? I would imagine a lot of that oil is sent back to Venezuela and sold for 2 cents / litre.They send crude to the US because they did not or could not maintain their own refinery's. They either fell apart, burnt or just degraded to the point they could no longer be used. They still have a few running but no where near enough to handle the output. Because their crude is heavy and low quality not every one can refine it for them. Their out put is way down also for the same reasons, neglect.
From the Buenos Aires Herald online-.
"Ruling Victory Front lawmakers passed the Sovereign Payment bill -establishing the local payment agent for creditors, a new voluntary debt swap, and the creation of a permanent bicameral debt oversight committee- in the Lower House of Congress with barely no support from opposition blocs. ".
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169483/those-who-voted-against-favour-vulture-funds
The "BODEN" bonds 7% due October 3rd 2015 trade around 95.
From the Buenos Aires Herald online-.
"Ruling Victory Front lawmakers passed the Sovereign Payment bill -establishing the local payment agent for creditors, a new voluntary debt swap, and the creation of a permanent bicameral debt oversight committee- in the Lower House of Congress with barely no support from opposition blocs. ".
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169483/those-who-voted-against-favour-vulture-funds
The "BODEN" bonds 7% due October 3rd 2015 trade around 95.I predict that an overwhelming majority of Exchange Bondholders will decide that their temporarily non-performing USA adjudicated bonds are preferable to any class of Argentina adjudicated bonds, period.
This is all just a political ruse to mollify the great unwashed masses.
Kicillof has repeatedly insisted that there are tens of thousands of exchange bondholders who have expressed interest in exchanging their USA adjudicated bonds for Argentina bonds, but in fact the media has been unable to find more that a small handfull of actual volunteers.
Jax.
The vast majority of institutional holders of these bonds will be uncomfortable receiving interest and principal in Buenos Aires.
To me it's very interesting how well the prices have held up. The "BODENS" 7% due in October 2015 are quoted at 95.
For investors who would like to receive "Argentina Legal" US dollars in BsAs it's an interesting opportunity. Yield to maturity about 15% at current prices -.
And particularly if the institutional holders start a likely selling stampede when they focus on their legal status according to their internal governing regulations.
Yield to maturity about 15% at current prices -.The yield to maturity is indeed enticing, but the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature. For me, non-payment is not worth the risk.
Tres3.
And particularly if the institutional holders start a likely selling stampede when they focus on their legal status according to their internal governing regulations.Many institutional holders are by their own rules prohibited from holding bonds in default status, and thus at some point they will be compelled to sell off any Argentina "exchange bonds" in their portfolios, resulting in a swift devaluation in said bonds.
I predict that at that time the "vultures" will pickup up more of these distressed "exchange bonds", again at so called "bargain" prices.
Thanks,
Jax.
BTW, if Elliott Management, NML Capital, etc. Are "the vultures", then doesn't that make Argentina "the carcass"?
J.
'the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature".
Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169492/argentina-will-return-to-foreign-markets
Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.I'm sorry; I have to go. It's time for my pig's flying lesson.
'the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature".
Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169492/argentina-will-return-to-foreign-marketsAny project that includes Argentina is NOT attractive. Guaranteed they will screw it up, or rob the investor, or nationalize the project. Just look at recent history!
Comparing the relative attractiveness of Argentinian investment opportunities is a lot like trying to decide which fat American b!tch you should marry.
ElAlamoPalermo
09-12-14, 01:37
I would NEVER advise anyone to hold Argentine sovereign debt (regardless of jurisdiction) OR any other assets within the borders of Argentina. The cancer is so profoundly deep in all things Argentina that it's not worth the risk or trouble. That being said, after the RUFO clause expires in January I believe the government will be obliged to negotiate a settlement with the so-called vultures because there simply will not be any money to pay for essential imports (energy, capital goods, medical supplies). I fully expect a particularly rotten summer as there is no way the government will be able to keep the electricity on in the CABA.
I would NEVER advise anyone to hold Argentine sovereign debt (regardless of jurisdiction) OR any other assets within the borders of Argentina. The cancer is so profoundly deep in all things Argentina that it's not worth the risk or trouble. That being said, after the RUFO clause expires in January I believe the government will be obliged to negotiate a settlement with the so-called vultures because there simply will not be any money to pay for essential imports (energy, capital goods, medical supplies). I fully expect a particularly rotten summer as there is no way the government will be able to keep the electricity on in the CABA.Electricity is a huge problem now a days. Its normal to have electric cut every other day here while they try to patch the system up. I am waiting for two years for electric to a new house. On a street that HAD electric ten years ago. Edenor slowly cannibalized all the wire, transformers and even the poles until there was nothing left because at that time no one lived on that block. They finally put new poles in three months ago but now they are waiting for cable! All this because they have not been allowed to raise their rates for over ten years and they can't even maintain what they do have!
It will be interesting to see how many bonds are actually converted.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-passes-law-pay-off-bonds-outside-us-095208938.html
Tres3.
Retire N Trave
09-12-14, 15:34
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/venezuela-threatens-harvard-professor-for-default-comment.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/venezuela-threatens-harvard-professor-for-default-comment.htmlArgentina is following right behind. Cristina is using the same game plan but without Venezuela's huge oil reserves.
I had a good laugh reading this article about CKF's plan to build the tallest building in Latin America. This confirmed my suspicion that she's lost touch with reality?
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentina-plans-latin-americas-tallest-building-25415173
Argentina Plans Latin America's Tallest Building.
Argentine government says 'patriotic' tower will be Latin America's tallest building.
The Associated Press.
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina.
Argentina says it will build the tallest building in Latin America.
President Cristina Fernandez says the 1,165-foot (355-meter) tower is expected to cost around $300 million and will serve as a center for the entertainment industry, including television and movies studios "Hollywood" style.
Architectural plans released Wednesday depict it as being in the shape of Argentina's map while an outdoor stadium for 15,000 people at ground level is shaped like the map of the Falkland Islands. The British territory in the South Atlantic is claimed by Argentina, which calls it Las Malvinas.
Fernandez says the building, which will be lit in the sky-blue and white colors of the national flag, is to be constructed on state lands with private funding. It will be located on Demarchi island in southern Buenos Aires overlooking the River Plate and is planned to rise higher than the 984-foot (300-meter) Costanera Center tower nearing completion in Santiago, Chile.
The winning design for the Buenos Aires project was announced on Fernandez's Facebook page Wednesday. It comes as her government struggles with a recession, a shortage of dollars and one of the world's highest inflation rates.
The half-pipe ramp-like design of the building produced hundreds of comments on social media, including by professional skateboarder Tony Hawk. "Just after we left Argentina, they approve this skyscraper design (1200 feet tall). Coincidence?" Hawk said on his Twitter account.
Others took to social media to poke fun at the plan by posting images of King Kong on top of the building or a line graph resembling the structure that shows Argentina's spiraling inflation.
The building is expected to be completed within five years. Fernandez ends her presidential term in December 2015.
What will CFK and her minions think of next?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
What will CFK and her minions think of next?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Can we assume a devaluation will occur soon? I would like to travel to BA, but the currency market makes me uncomfortable about travel.
What will CFK and her minions think of next?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Like most statements made by politicians to crowds of idiots, this sounds good but it doesn't pass even a cursory logical review.
The reality is that the holdouts have not the slightest desire to see the Argentina peso fall in value or to otherwise see the Argentine economy crash.
In fact, the holdouts would prefer to see a strong peso and a strong Argentine economy which would improve their chances of being repaid.
To say it more directly: You can't collect a debt from a dead creditor.
Thanks,
Jax.
Retire N Trave
09-19-14, 16:29
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/argentina-s-poverty-rate-may-quadruple-to-40-world-bank-says.html - If this article is accurate I don't understand the part about the goal of raising the percentage of those covered with health care to 50% from 28%.
I thought everyone in Argentina got health care from the government already.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/argentina-s-poverty-rate-may-quadruple-to-40-world-bank-says.html - If this article is accurate I don't understand the part about the goal of raising the percentage of those covered with health care to 50% from 28%.
I thought everyone in Argentina got health care from the government already.Only sort of. The public hospitals are free but insurance coverage is through the government only for government workers. Then you have the unions' and other employers' plans, and then you have private plans. It's known as a "three-tiered system. " So the citizens without insurance can go to the hospital, or they can go to the hospital and wait around in line to make an appointment at some future date, often quite a ways in the future. Works okay if you have say a broken arm, but not so good for chronic medical conditions.
As long as CFK is in power, it appears that Argentina will continue to fight a losing battle. Meanwhile, lawyers for both sides are laughing all the way to the bank, and Argentine poverty continues to grow.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-court-tosses-argentina-citigroup-appeal-bond-case-183934826--sector.html
Tres3.
Soros must know something about Argentina that the rest of the investing world does not.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-fernandez-meets-billionaire-investor-soros-york-062520167--sector.html
Tres3.
Spirit Rider
09-23-14, 20:20
Soros must know something about Argentina that the rest of the investing world does not.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-fernandez-meets-billionaire-investor-soros-york-062520167--sector.html
Tres3.No, like Esten, he never met a left wing politician that he didn't get weak in the knees at the mere thought of kissing their ass. The bigger the wacko the more George baby genuflects.
Soros owns 3. 5 % or YPF (500 MM) and is clearly incented to clean up the "default" and clear the way for new foreign investment.
He may be willing to negotiate with the holdouts in return for "future considerations".
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/170572/eurnekian-if-it-is-in-soros-hand-to-do-something-i-think-he-will
Argentina is willing to negotiate, BUT only if the New York ruling is stayed. I guess that Argentina also believes that pigs can fly.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-26/argentina-cites-willingness-to-negotiate-with-holdouts-next-year.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
This is what Argentina gets for writing such ridiculous bond terms. A good CAC would have put a stop to all this nonsense. Having said that. These funds better hurry up and negotiate while they still have the upper hand. Global opinion (not just hedge fund investors) is against them. And the voices are growing louder. IMF, WB, UN, EU, US State Department, UK courts, France, Germany, most well respected economists etc.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48682#. VCXFzajn8 sI.
http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=783&Sitemap_x0020_Taxonomy=UNCTAD%20Home
http://harvardpolitics.com/world/argentina-holdouts-hurt/
What the US governments opinion is on debt and default. As least as far as the US of A is concerned. Luckily we can just print our way out of default.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/09/debt-limit-options-and-the-way-forward
He came to BA with a US $100,000,000 line of credit and invented factoring outside of the Argentine banking system by creating financial cooperatives.
He left a billionaire.
Soros became a billionaire in BA and still owns a real estate empire in Argentina.Including the Abasto Shopping center, which was for years a wholesale grocery market before he renovated and converted it into a modern shopping center.
Including the Abasto Shopping center, which was for years a wholesale grocery market before he renovated and converted it into a modern shopping center.Interesting anecdote. Now it makes sense why the only Kosher mcdonalds outside of Israel is located there. I always thought it was curiously random.
TejanoLibre
09-28-14, 20:13
Interesting anecdote. Now it makes sense why the only Kosher mcdonalds outside of Israel is located there. I always thought it was curiously random.I thought that it was because of the neighborhood that it's in.
I was there one day and a tourist asked me to take a picture of him standing in front of the McDonald's but when I started to take the picture a security guard told me that I could not take any pictures.
I asked the guard if he had a gun and when he said "NO" I said "Fuck You" and took the picture anyway.
Like an English Cop would say "Stop or I'll say Stop Again! ".
Had to laugh!
Paranoid about someone blowing up the McDonald's I guess.
TL.
When will responsible adults stop acting like children?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-deposits-debt-payment-defiance-u-court-152342648--sector.html
Tres3.
Name one responsible Argentinean adult, ever. Even Borges fucked off at his job at the library (he was a 'gnocchi'), although he was good to his mother.
It is too bad that Griesa cannot put some of the Argentine players in jail for contempt like he can for Americans. It will be interesting to see what happens if CFK or her cohorts travel to the USA.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-court-holds-argentina-contempt-204334480.html
Tres3.
It seems to me that CFK is the one who is "silly", but I guess that plays well to the Argentine masses.
http://news.yahoo.com/argentina-moves-local-trustee-bonds-161316691--finance.html
Tres3.
CFK preaches to the Argentine masses while the rest of the world is bewildered or laughing.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2c11442d50284b4eb985a9ac4fb1ee5f/vultures-hover-over-argentina-us-relations
Tres3.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-central-bank-governor-resigns-211444002.html;_ylt=AwrBEiQ7ZS1UAykAFJOTmYlQ
Fabrega was likely the last hope for Argentina before they do something even more stupid than making a mountain out of a mole hill. Throw a 50% export tax on soybeans and expect farmers to continue business as usual. Argentina has the natural resources to be doing as well as Australia, but they are determined to continually screw everyone else and themselves in the process.
TejanoLibre
10-02-14, 21:22
Christina blaming the United States:
http://news.yahoo.com/us-could-topple-government-kill-argentinas-kirchner-095518100.html
TL.
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.html
Daddy Rulz
10-03-14, 01:03
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-central-bank-governor-resigns-211444002.html;_ylt=AwrBEiQ7ZS1UAykAFJOTmYlQ
Fabrega was likely the last hope for Argentina before they do something even more stupid than making a mountain out of a mole hill. Throw a 50% export tax on soybeans and expect farmers to continue business as usual. Argentina has the natural resources to be doing as well as Australia, but they are determined to continually screw everyone else and themselves in the process.This was the last voice of reason in this country. 25-1 by January.
I wonder if this "Fabrega handed in his resignation this afternoon in a way that was impossible to decline," means he walked across the street into her office and said "WTF are you doing?" and walked out.
AllIWantIsLove
10-03-14, 02:04
Didn't he just rule that a contract means what it says? (And that's an honest question. I don't have the legal background to understand exactly what he did.).
But I am pretty sure that although "he can't be fired" his rulings can be overturned.
Bob.
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.html
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.htmlThat is why the USA has an appellate process. But did not that process uphold Judge Griesa? We are lucky that federal judges have lifetime tenure. Lifetime tenure gives them some insulation from the political process, and they cannot be fired by a politician. Was not the fact that USA judges have immunity one of CFK's complaints?
Tres3.
That is why the USA has an appellate process. But did not that process uphold Judge Griesa? We are lucky that federal judges have lifetime tenure. Lifetime tenure gives them some insulation from the political process, and they cannot be fired by a politician. Was not the fact that USA judges have immunity one of CFK's complaints?
Tres3.The US Supreme Court upheld Griesa's rulings in this case. Esten would like us to ignore the facts and look at the bright shiny object he is holding. The anonymous complainers were most likely attorneys that got their asses kicked in Griesa's court. I wonder if any of the anonymous complaints were written by Christina's minions. Regardless, she is getting her ass kicked in this case and is looking crazier and more desperate by the minute.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/supreme-court-denies-appeal-by-argentina/?_php=true&_type=blogs&partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.htmlWhy should he be fired? Because he did his job?? Because he enforced a contract that was mostly written by Argentina because they were desperate for money at any price and they were out of options? And now the people who put up the money would like it back almost 15 years later? Give the old coot a medal for putting up with all this bull $hit!
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.htmlActually, the facts are:
First, the judge ruled the only way he could, given that by Argentina's decision those bonds DO NOT have a Collective Action Clause (CAC). The judge had no alternative but to enforce the contract.
Second, the Appeals Court had no grounds to overturn such a straigthfoward ruling.
Third, the Supreme Court could not possibly agree to hear the case as there are no constitutional matters at stake here.
Finally, the ruling justified the USA Reputation as a safe haven subject to the rule of law, regardless of how much some liberals would prefer to replace that by political fiat.
Thanks,
Jax
Flexible Horn
10-03-14, 15:44
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29474422
Top gear is one of England's most viewed TV programs.
I'm not sure this will entice many people to take their holidays in Argentina in the near future.
First, the judge ruled the only way he could, given that by Argentina's decision those bonds DO NOT have a Collective Action Clause (CAC). The judge had no alternative but to enforce the contract.Citigroup went to court to appeal Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments.
Show us where in the contract does it state that existing payments be blocked to enforce pari passu. If you can't, we can only conclude that Griesa used (and abused) his discretion.
Citigroup went to court to appeal Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments.
Show us where in the contract does it state that existing payments be blocked to enforce pari passu. If you can't, we can only conclude that Griesa used (and abused) his discretion.That was in response to Argentina's abuse, rudeness, lies and outright thievery. Argentina (Cristina) thinks she can do what ever she wants and that every one else needs to do what she wants. She does not want to pay anyone in full. She will not even talk about paying in full. Only if she is looking at a steep discount is she willing to talk. But at the same time she wants new loans and she wants to be able to point out that she is paying on all old loans!
Show us where in the contract does it state that existing payments be blocked to enforce pari passu..You obviously do not know what pari passu means.
Tres3.
Another court order for CFK to ignore and rant about.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-judge-orders-argentina-stop-servicing-exchange-bonds-233659721--sector.html
Tres3.
WorldTravel69
10-04-14, 12:30
More on the President's Ranting.
https://news.vice.com/article/how-crazy-are-argentina-presidents-hints-of-a-us-plot-to-remove-her
CFK and her cohorts just do not get it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/bank-rates-topping-25-can-t-quell-peso-exodus-argentina-credit.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
It looks as if Kicillof is CFK's anointed successor.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/international-business/
Tres3.
Citigroup went to court to appeal Griesa's order, saying he abused his discretion in blocking payments.
Show us where in the contract does it state that existing payments be blocked to enforce pari passu. If you can't, we can only conclude that Griesa used (and abused) his discretion.Let me explain this to you.
"Pari passu" means that all bondholders must be treated equally by the bond issuer.
Among other things, it means that the bond issuer can't pick and choose who it will pay I. E. "We like bondholders A, C and C, so we will pay them, and because we don't like bondholders D, E and F we will tell them to "fuck off".
That's a good thing. That's why all bond buyers want "pari passu" clauses in the bonds they buy. For the bond issuers it keeps the interest rates lower as the bonds are perceived as being more secure.
In this case, Argentine decided that it would ignore the "pari passu" clause in the bonds that they authored and sold, and instead decided to pay those bondholders who agreed to the haircut while simultaneously telling the holdout bondholders to "fuck off".
Judge Griesa agreed with the holdouts that a) their bonds were valid and that Argentine owed them the full amount stipulated therein, and b) that they were not being treated equally with the other bondholders who were in fact getting paid (abet at a reduced rate). Accordingly, he correctly ordered that nobody could get paid unless everybody got paid in accordance with the bond's conditions.
Of course, Argentina can settle the lawsuit with the holdout bondholders by paying them in full as stipulated in the bonds. Unfortunately for the exchange bondholders, I suspect that they waived their rights to full payment when they accepted the exchange bonds, but that's their problem.
Thanks,
Jax.
More BS from Kicillof. I wonder why he did not name the potential "investors" and the amounts they would loan Argentina?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/argentina-has-offers-from-investors-for-financing-kicillof-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
One of the more ironic aspects of this whole bond debacle is that when Argentina wrote the bonds, they included a "most favored creditor" clause to increase the marketability. But, and I know everyone will find this difficult to believe, they fucked it up. They left out the word "settlement" and that single omission meant the exchange bondholders weren't protected from Argentina making a settlement with the holdout bondholders. But Argentina then passed another law that prevented Argentina from re-opening the exchange process. That law, known as the Lock Law, is what was held to violate the equal treatment clause (along with the payments to the exchange bondholders).
So pari passu (equal treatment or rank) has two possible elements: an internal element, meaning that each bond within a tranch is equal to each other bond in the tranch; and an external element, meaning that Tranch X ranks equally with other existing debentures (mortgage bonds don't have or need pari passu clauses) and / or with future issues. Typically, depending on state law, you can then still take a future issue and give it a subordination clause. Importantly, the Argentine bonds that were defaulted on contained both types of clauses. Here is the exact pari passu clause from the bonds:
"The Securities will constitute ... direct, unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Republic and shall at all times rank pari passu and without any preference among themselves. The payment obligations of the Republic under the Securities shall at all times rank at least equally with all its other present and future unsecured and unsubordinated External Indebtedness (as defined in this Agreement)."
Pretty clear, I would say. Since it says "at least" equally, we see that future issues can indeed be subordinated. But that isn't relevant except in the case of the exchange bonds. I haven't found out yet whether the exchange bonds have a subordination clause. The seminal case dealing with pari passu is the "Elliott" case, where a holdout investment fund succeeded in blocking Per from making payments to other bondholders on a 'restructuring' of the debt. That was an EU decision, but was based on New York law. And, since Argentina was not astute enough to include a collective action clause in the original bonds, putting one in the exchange bonds would also violate pari passu; Greece, in similar circumstances, was able to put the 'haircut' to a vote and hence force the holdouts to accept the reduced principal repayment, because they had one of these clauses.
Then, for reasons that are unclear but appear to be related to having a lock on stupid, Argentina proceeded to (repeatedly) file 18k reports with the SEC in which it specifically referred to the holdout creditors as comprising a separate category. Thus, they basically filed a sworn form proving they had violated the equal treatment clause!
Then, for reasons that are unclear but appear to be related to having a lock on stupid, Argentina proceeded to (repeatedly) file 18k reports with the SEC in which it specifically referred to the holdout creditors as comprising a separate category. Thus, they basically filed a sworn form proving they had violated the equal treatment clause!You cannot cure stupid. I do not think anyone with a modicum of intelligence ever accused the Argentine government of having a single rocket scientist on its payroll, much less someone with intelligence. They fired all of the smart people, or the smart people resigned. Unfortunately, it has been this way since before Peron. Peron and his successors only made matters worse by giving decision making power to stupid, sycophantic, inept, yes men.
My dos centavos worth.
Tres3.
The chance of finding a cure for stupid might increase slightly (or not) if they would send their children to school for more than four hours a day. That'd be like having 110 days of school a year in the US.
The chance of finding a cure for stupid might increase slightly (or not) if they would send their children to school for more than four hours a day. That'd be like having 110 days of school a year in the US.Hear, hear!
Having just taken my son from the (so called) Argentinian education system to the British education system, the difference is an embarrassment. He's in year two, but has had to be grouped with the pre-schoolers for reading and writing. He's not dumb - they just hadn't started on reading and writing yet at his school in Argentina!
The chance of finding a cure for stupid might increase slightly (or not) if they would send their children to school for more than four hours a day. That'd be like having 110 days of school a year in the US.True, four hours a day. Fifteen minutes or so in the morning for attendance etc. Thirty minutes or so of "school" . One hour outside for unsupervised "play time" . Forty five minutes or more for a "snack". That leaves another hour and a half of class time before they spend fifteen minutes cleaning up and getting their things together. So out of four hours a day, they get two hours of class time (if they are lucky). That and most of the teachers dont even have a "teaching" degree. How much are these kids learning??? A friend of mine who is now teaching got his job in a bi-lingual school based on the fact he spoke really good english and that he had a college degree in "something". In his case , economics. Most of these kids turn into parasites on the Argentine economy because when they leave school they cannot read well, or write well, and in many cases do not even speak well. What can they do besides drive a bus or work construction? I am assuming (hoping?) that the schools in the city are better then they are out here on the boonies (provincia). If not this country is doomed to be ignorant and stupid!
...this country is doomed to continue being ignorant and stupid!FTFY!
(Fixed That For You.).
Hear, hear!
Having just taken my son from the (so called) Argentinian education system to the British education system, the difference is an embarrassment. He's in year two, but has had to be grouped with the pre-schoolers for reading and writing. He's not dumb - they just hadn't started on reading and writing yet at his school in Argentina!If we keep "Dumbing Down" in the USA schools, it will not be too long before we are just like Argentina, and other Latin countries.
Tres3.
On dumbing down in the US (slightly off topic but hey): I had three separate teaching stints separated by gaps of 7-8 years. I taught one particular upper division course during all three stints, using succeeding editions of the leading text in the field. The first stint, the material was similar to what I studied in undergrad, which was not too surprising since not much time had passed. Then in stint two, I noticed that a lot of the more challenging material had been moved to appendices. By the third stint, that material was gone completely.
I also taught at the college I graduated from, about twenty years later. By then, in the business school they had removed the calculus requirement, the foreign language requirement, the keyboarding test, and lord knows what else. The day I finally decided my career was over was when I stopped what I was doing and said to my class of business majors, "What's seven times eight?"
The blank looks told me all I needed to know.
Daddy Rulz
10-11-14, 13:00
I recently took an associate degree from a Jr. College in the US and A. The course work in my high school was much harder back in the days of hairy pussies and Pat Benatar.
I wasnt sure if I should put this in the jokes thread or under Argentine economy.........
"Argentina is not precluded from international credit, it has decided not to take it’.
Economy Minister Axel Kicillof has assured that the government is not seeking international financing despite current economic problems. “Argentina is not precluded from international credit, but it has decided not to take it,’ he stated.
“The government is not against external financing, the problem are its sources, the conditionalities tied to these loans,” Kicillof said in an interview with local Página/12 newspaper.
The minister said that the country has achieved foreign trade surpluses and that it “has the foreign exchange needed to face debt maturities.”.
“Historically, Argentina’s development was subjected to recurrent trade balance crisis,” the official said. “Development processes intensively use foreign currency.”.
Kicillof explained that “the mediocre growth of global economy, trade and of the economies of emerging countries” has affected Argentina since it is not “free from the evolution of Brazil’s, Europe’s and China’s growth rates.”".
I wasnt sure if I should put this in the jokes thread or under Argentine economy.........
"Argentina is not precluded from international credit, it has decided not to take it.
Economy Minister Axel Kicillof has assured that the government is not seeking international financing despite current economic problems. Argentina is not precluded from international credit, but it has decided not to take it, he stated.
The government is not against external financing, the problem are its sources, the conditionalities tied to these loans, Kicillof said in an interview with local Pgina/12 newspaper.
The minister said that the country has achieved foreign trade surpluses and that it has the foreign exchange needed to face debt maturities..
Historically, Argentinas development was subjected to recurrent trade balance crisis, the official said. Development processes intensively use foreign currency..
Kicillof explained that the mediocre growth of global economy, trade and of the economies of emerging countries has affected Argentina since it is not free from the evolution of Brazils, Europes and Chinas growth rates.".Kicillof has either been smoking weed or is spouting CFK propaganda for the consumption of the LIV Argentine voters, or both. If it were not so serious, I would definitely put it in the jokes thread. An Argentine friend told me that Argentina was ungovernable, and I am beginning to believe him. The people in government are too stupid to govern the country, but not too stupid to steal.
Tres3.
I wasnt sure if I should put this in the jokes thread or under Argentine economy.........
"Argentina is not precluded from international credit, it has decided not to take it.
Economy Minister Axel Kicillof has assured that the government is not seeking international financing despite current economic problems. Argentina is not precluded from international credit, but it has decided not to take it, he stated.
The government is not against external financing, the problem are its sources, the conditionalities tied to these loans, Kicillof said in an interview with local Pgina/12 newspaper.
The minister said that the country has achieved foreign trade surpluses and that it has the foreign exchange needed to face debt maturities..
Historically, Argentinas development was subjected to recurrent trade balance crisis, the official said. Development processes intensively use foreign currency..
Kicillof explained that the mediocre growth of global economy, trade and of the economies of emerging countries has affected Argentina since it is not free from the evolution of Brazils, Europes and Chinas growth rates.".Does Kicillof look and sound like Baghdad Bob? I always wondered what happened to that guy.
Thomaso276
10-14-14, 08:33
Does Kicillof look and sound like Baghdad Bob? I always wondered what happened to that guy.According to WIKI : Although questioned by American authorities, al-Sahhaf was released, and there has been no suggestion of charging or detaining him for his role in the Saddam Hussein government. He is now living in the United Arab Emirates with his family.
The Argentine government needs to get its act together if CFK's party is to stand a chance in the 2015 elections.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-04/argentine-bean-hoarding-epidemic-building-after-default.html
Tres3.
Anyone, including an Argentine, who touches this offer with a ten foot pole ought to have his head examined.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-20/argentina-planning-1-billion-dollar-linked-bond-sale.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
Daddy Rulz
10-20-14, 16:32
Anyone, including an Argentine, who touches this offer with a ten foot pole ought to have his head examined.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-20/argentina-planning-1-billion-dollar-linked-bond-sale.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.The want to sell the bonds in dollars and repay them in pesos at the official rate? Are you fucking kidding me? The article does say they promise not to devalue the peso, so I'm sure that will work out fine.
I've got to get into the Sovereign Debt business.
No I think that they are Peso Bonds with a return of capital based on change in the Official Dollar Exchange rate.
So if/when Argentina devalues, this will enhance the return on the bonds.
Member #4112
10-20-14, 22:36
Both the article Tres3 posted from Bloomberg and the article in the Buenos Aires Herald clearly stated:
The bonds are to be denominated in US Dollars.
The bonds are to be paid in Argentine Pesos at the OFFICAL EXCHANGE RATE, there was no guarantee in the Herald article on the official rate not being changed either up or down.
The bonds are to pay a whopping 1.75%.
The bonds will be governed by Argentine Law.
What could possibly go wrong?
If I understood this right, they are going to re-calibrate the amount on which the 1.75% is paid by the change in the official exchange rate. Example for a $1,000 bond: Official rate starts out at say 8 to 1 so the $1,000 bond is worth 8,000 pesos and the interest is (8,000 x .0175) = 140 pesos. Now after a year the rate is 10 to 1. The bond is worth 10,000 pesos and the interest will be (1,000 x .0175) = 175 pesos. That's why that Argie politician says the holders will "benefit" if the currency is devalued. They will get more pesos. But hello, the devaluation was because of inflation and 175 devalued pesos aren't any better than 140 undevalued pesos. Plus they get screwed the whole time period between the adjustments because the coupon is based on the beginning of the period calculation.
So it's hard to see anyone buying these bonds. Yet, people buy lottery tickets. In my state, lottery tickets say right on the front: "Prizes equal 50% of sales." I say to my friends who buy lottery tickets, "Just give me a dime and I will give you a nickel and you will be better off." Why better off and not just the same? Because gambling is heads you lose, tails you win and pay taxes. Winnings are taxable and losses can't be deducted unless you are a professional gambler and even then you have to already be itemizing AND the loss has to exceed 2% of income. So really if you buy a lottery ticket in my state your return on a dollar is fifty cents minus the tax on fifty cents.
I guess you could win if the devaluation was way more than the inflation during the holding period. That could happen if the devaluation was long overdue, which it is, so maybe that is the potential appeal. Buy the bonds, eat some inflation, dump right after the devaluation and hope to come out ahead.
Christ, what do you invest in if you're an Argie? Real estate is so illiquid because of the lack of financing. The banks aren't safe. The bonds aren't safe. Their stock market is all fucked up. I guess you hold precious metals. Then your apartment gets broken into and your insurance won't pay off and you jump out a window.
Do Argie insurance companies ever even pay off?
Christ, what do you invest in if you're an Argie? If you are a smart Argie (I think that is an oxymoron), you invest in dollars, and pray that they are not stolen.
Tres3.
Christ, what do you invest in if you're an Argie?You don't invest as such, you make money in the same way as the political elite - you steal it.
Do Argie insurance companies ever even pay off?I really doubt it. I know when you have a car accident there is a ten year wait to collect, if you ever collect. (they spend ten years dreaming up ways to cheat you!) Do they mention who is the insurer? My guess is either there is no insurance or they wont pay the premium so the carrier wont pay. Either way you dont get paid.
Surprise, Surprise.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/argentina-black-market-proving-irresistible-to-tourists.html
Tres3.
Surprise, Surprise.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/argentina-black-market-proving-irresistible-to-tourists.html
Tres3.Probably so for Latin Americans but not so much from other foreigners. Now if they devalued and tightened the spread between markets, that would be a tourism boom.
Probably so for Latin Americans but not so much from other foreigners. Now if they devalued and tightened the spread between markets, that would be a tourism boom.Why would it?
Why would it?Dual exchanges would be perceived as a risk by most tourists. I like budgets when I travel and like to limit the unknowns.
Daddy Rulz
10-23-14, 12:26
Dual exchanges would be perceived as a risk by most tourists. I like budgets when I travel and like to limit the unknowns.However in this case, the dual exchange is an enormous benefit for tourists. If the "official" rate was determined solely by the market and the blue rate went away, I doubt that what would remain would be as high as the blue rate is today.
It's weird though, even back in 2002 through 2006 when the "official" rate was driven by the market there still were cambios. Maybe because you had to present ID when changing money even then and people trying to convert unreported profit needed the no questions asked services of the cambios.
However in this case, the dual exchange is an enormous benefit for tourists. If the "official" rate was determined solely by the market and the blue rate went away, I doubt that what would remain would be as high as the blue rate is today.
It's weird though, even back in 2002 through 2006 when the "official" rate was driven by the market there still were cambios. Maybe because you had to present ID when changing money even then and people trying to convert unreported profit needed the no questions asked services of the cambios.Another reason that you will always have cambios in Argentina is the notorious slowness of the banks. A person might wait an hour or more at a bank, while a cambio only takes a few minutes. An ATM might be quick, but the average Argentine does not have an ATM card.
Tres3.
Another holdout bond holder sues. It is not just Singer who wants to get paid in full. If CFK digs the hole any deeper, Argentina may go the way of Venezuela.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/argentina-bond-fight-judge-griesa-gets-new-ken-dart-suit.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
Another holdout bond holder sues. It is not just Singer who wants to get paid in full. If CFK digs the hole any deeper, Argentina may go the way of Venezuela.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/argentina-bond-fight-judge-griesa-gets-new-ken-dart-suit.html?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Argentina is going the way of Venezuela. The difference being that life in Venezuela before Chavez was pretty good, and they had plenty of cash flow. Its almost as if Chavez wrote a book and Cristina is reading it at night and following all his mistakes.
Both the article Tres3 posted from Bloomberg and the article in the Buenos Aires Herald clearly stated:
The bonds are to be denominated in US Dollars.
The bonds are to be paid in Argentine Pesos at the OFFICAL EXCHANGE RATE, there was no guarantee in the Herald article on the official rate not being changed either up or down.
The bonds are to pay a whopping 1.75%.
The bonds will be governed by Argentine Law.
What could possibly go wrong?Everything--After all, the bonds are being issued by the Argentinian government. If you trust the government, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Tres3.
CFK keeps digging the hole deeper and deeper. Of course, she does not care because she has already stolen a bundle.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hot-threat-argentina-acceleration-140300855.html
Tres3.
Member #4112
11-01-14, 17:09
Everything--After all, the bonds are being issued by the Argentinian government. If you trust the government, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Tres3.Tres, from the first word - The - to the last word -wrong? - it was tongue in cheek! Its Argentina of course it's going sideways! Who would want bonds under those conditions?
The following is a link to a Bloomberg story that appeared on Yahoo.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/argentina-s-bond-mess-gets-slightly-more-complicated?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
The below link is about Argentina's bond offering that was withdrawn after only two days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/letter-wall-street-sent-potential-194600689.html
Tres3.
The below link is to a long article that appeared in Bloomberg. It is somewhat difficult to understand, and you have to forgive the author for trying to be tongue in cheek with the title.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-27/argentina-s-bonds-are-doing-so-well-it-tried-to-sell-more?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
The below link points to more Kicillikof rhetoric for the masses, but also gives a good summary of the entire Argentina bond debacle.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-says-vultures-circling-overhead-202300653.html
Tres3.
Below are two links about CitiBank finding itself between a rock and a hard place or between Judge Griesa and the Argentina Government.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-warns-citibank-could-lose-banking-license-204341077--finance.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/citibank-s-request-to-process-argentine-bond-payments-denied
Tres3.
Below are two links about CitiBank finding itself between a rock and a hard place or between Judge Griesa and the Argentina Government.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-warns-citibank-could-lose-banking-license-204341077--finance.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/citibank-s-request-to-process-argentine-bond-payments-denied
Tres3.I think Cristina is about to find out who has more power, her or some old misinformed judge in and why.
The below link is an article about Citigroup and their planned exit from Argentina.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-says-judge-allowing-two-185046411.html
Tres3.
The doom and gloom squad are sloop 2010.
Even though the "bonds" are only 12 and 18 months, I still do not trust the Argentine government.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-raises-5-bln-pesos-223952009.html
Tres3.
More on the CitiBank saga.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-28/argentina-bans-citi-from-market-operations-on-holdout-agreement?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
Absolutely unbelievable, but I forgot--this is happening in Argentina on CFK's watch.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-just-pulled-most-only-170000501.html
Tres3.
Absolutely unbelievable, but I forgot--this is happening in Argentina on CFK's watch.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-just-pulled-most-only-170000501.html
Tres3.Loosely speaking, Citi says its going to stop doing bond business in Argie land and Cristina turns around ans says, no, no, no, you are no longer allowed to do bond business. Vindictive witch!
Only in Argentina!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentine-central-bank-send-regulators-141014077.html
Tres3.
Only in Argentina!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentine-central-bank-send-regulators-141014077.html
Tres3.Well..... They need to make it look like all of their problems (Argentina's) is some elses fault.
If foreign banks don't want to be audited they should probably stop laundering billions of dollars out of the country. I still remember the mysterious fire at Iron Mountain last year where HSBC et al " lost " all those money laundering records. Lol. How convenient.
As far as Citi is concerned. I'm sure the Central bank is just doing this to remind Citi who runs the show in Argentina. And if they want to continue to make money laundering billions out of Argentina. They better do a better job at playing ball or else Argentina won't continue to turn a blind eye to their black book dealings. Don't even see how this is even news worthy. Oh that's right. 2015 is the year. Fingers crossed.
Argentine arrogance at work.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/looks-argentina-trying-embarrass-entire-164823581.html
Tres3.
It looks as if the Argentine government is trying to make Citibank a distracting scapegoat for its many failures.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-sues-citibank-over-deal-holdout-creditors-161334253--sector.html
Tres3.
More posturing for the Argentine LIVs.
http://fusionmoney.tumblr.com/post/116004302001/ambassador-argentina-has-offers-of-funding-is
Tres3.
More posturing for the Argentine LIVs.
http://fusionmoney.tumblr.com/post/116004302001/ambassador-argentina-has-offers-of-funding-is
Tres3.Always in denial. Not that it helps much.....
The article is difficult to believe.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-gloating-hedge-fund-enemies-142200609.html
Tres3.
I will believe it when I see it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-betting-argentinian-shale-boom-161251611.html
Tres3.
Did any entity that is not owned directly or indirectly by the Argentine government buy any of the bonds?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/elliott-s-newman-says-investors-too-optimistic-on-argentina-deal
Tres3.
Did any entity that is not owned directly or indirectly by the Argentine government buy any of the bonds?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/elliott-s-newman-says-investors-too-optimistic-on-argentina-deal
Tres3.http://pangeanews.net/economia/bond-argentini-il-fondo-marathon-ha-comprato-piu-della-meta-dei-bonar24-10287/
Will Argentina ever pay? Something tells me no!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-singers-billion-dollar-hedge-123152588.html
Tres3.
Once again the Government cooks the books.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-25/it-s-deja-vu-for-bond-traders-as-argentina-cpi-is-deemed-unreal?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
They keep trying to borrow money to pay off other bond offers that are expiring. Its a never ending cycle that only gets worse every year. They are offering more then double the normal interest. They are digging a bigger and deeper hole that they will not be able to climb out of.....
Wild Walleye
05-29-15, 11:24
They keep trying to borrow money to pay off other bond offers that are expiring. Its a never ending cycle that only gets worse every year. They are offering more then double the normal interest. They are digging a bigger and deeper hole that they will not be able to climb out of.....
It’s Deja Vu for Bond Traders as Argentina CPI Is Deemed Unreal
Once again the Government cooks the books.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eal?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3. These two things are tightly related. Professional investors are not going to just accept what the govt puts out for statistics. They have an idea about what real CPI is and that, along with all the other perceived risks plus a fudge-factor for unforeseen risk all get put together into determining the return they must be promised in order to invest.
The bondholders appear to be tightening the screws.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-29/argentina-me-too-bond-holdouts-seek-equal-treatment-ruling?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.
Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Why should she care? She does not have to pay it!!!
Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo
Tres3.Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:
1. Taxes.
2. Inflation.
3. Sell more bonds.
Given this, why buy government bonds?
Don B.
Wild Walleye
06-01-15, 16:36
Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:
1. Taxes.
2. Inflation.
3. Sell more bonds.
Given this, why buy government bonds?
Don B.All of this BS gets prices into the yield and the original issue discount. Additionally, the underwriters are getting fat fees and discounts, so it is important to put away (sell) the bonds in order to get all of the available compensation. I doubt too many purchasers buy these and hang onto them for too long.
Many buyers plan unload at the first decent uptick on price which, the govt will manufacture by doing something (policy) that will give the impression of more open markets and (more importantly) temporarily lower interest rates which, will increase the price of the bonds.
All of this BS gets prices into the yield and the original issue discount. Additionally, the underwriters are getting fat fees and discounts, so it is important to put away (sell) the bonds in order to get all of the available compensation. I doubt too many purchasers buy these and hang onto them for too long.
Many buyers plan unload at the first decent uptick on price which, the govt will manufacture by doing something (policy) that will give the impression of more open markets and (more importantly) temporarily lower interest rates which, will increase the price of the bonds.I was looking at it from the moral point of view.
Don B.
Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:
1. Taxes.
2. Inflation.
3. Sell more bonds.
Given this, why buy government bonds?
Don B.You forgot...
4. Print money.
Thanks,
Jax.
You forgot...
4. Print money.
Thanks,
Jax.#4 print money = #2 inflation. "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"; Milton Friedman.
You forgot...
4. Print money.
Thanks,
Jax.Clearly you both are deluded in that if there weren't a dynamic state sector then the private sector would crash ... Just look at innovation in mobile technology for instance ... Publicly funded developments... The state capitalist system supports and continues to invest in the corrupted market economy.
'¡Qué los jueces mueven el orto!'.
It should be 'muevan' but if I tell you 'judges + move + your asses' do you get their drift?
People who think Argentine investments will change with an election are blind to history.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5d20901c-094f-11e5-8534-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev,traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3cSeJaFDG.
Tres3.
Wild Walleye
06-09-15, 14:30
Clearly you both are deluded in that if there weren't a dynamic state sector then the private sector would crash ... Just look at innovation in mobile technology for instance ... Publicly funded developments... The state capitalist system supports and continues to invest in the corrupted market economy.Please show me one innovation in mobile technology that can be directly attributed to the Argentine government.
In the late 1800s, Buenos Aires cemented its position as a major trade port and a cosmopolitan metropolis (1900'ish). That was 115 years ago. What has the Argentine govt done for the economy during that period of time? How many times had it made the same mistakes?
Please show me one innovation in mobile technology that can be directly attributed to the Argentine government.
In the late 1800s, Buenos Aires cemented its position as a major trade port and a cosmopolitan metropolis (1900'ish). That was 115 years ago. What has the Argentine govt done for the economy during that period of time? How many times had it made the same mistakes?It could be argued that until Alfonsin Argentina had never had a democratically elected government, being ruled by dictatorships and with various parties excluded when there were elections. That legacy really fucked up the country.
Spirit Rider
06-10-15, 13:14
It could be argued that until Alfonsin Argentina had never had a democratically elected government, being ruled by dictatorships and with various parties excluded when there were elections. That legacy really fucked up the country.It could be argued that 30+ years of democratically elected governments have really fucked up the country even worse. With the queen ***** at the top of the list.
As I said before, it appears as if CFK and her cohorts do not care anymore, if they ever did.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-see-further-tightening-noose-192649385.html
Tres3.
More on the debt that Argentina will not or cannot pay.
http://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-freaks-out-over-me-too-bondholders-2015-6
Tres3.
However, and perhaps importantly, Argentina can default on $5.4 billion with equal ease as it can default on $1.7 billion. That is the great thing about bankruptcy. I once had a college professor who had the largest personal bankruptcy in the history of the state at that point.
He said, "Whoever defaults on the most unsecured debt, wins." Government bonds are secured by the "full faith and credit" of the issuing government and Argentina's credibility is zero and has been for a long time. It cannot go below zero, so why not take a really big bath? It worked for AIG and now AIG is suing the US government for bailing them out. I don't pretend to understand this, nor do I condone it, but it could very well be a case of rational self-interest, both for Argentina and for AIG and similar cocksuckers.
It could be argued that 30+ years of democratically elected governments have really fucked up the country even worse. With the queen ***** at the top of the list.I'd say the country was fucked long before Kristina arrived, she's just carried on the long tradition of presidents pilfering the coffers. And is she really worse than Menem?
I'd say the country was fucked long before Kristina arrived, she's just carried on the long tradition of presidents pilfering the coffers. And is she really worse than Menem?Is she really worse than Juan Peron, and all who have come after him?
Tres3.
Wild Walleye
06-17-15, 12:12
As I said before, it appears as if CFK and her cohorts do not care anymore, if they ever did.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-see-further-tightening-noose-192649385.html
Tres3.They (Kristina y amigos) can say whatever they want, but they have known, since the beginning, that any settlement with Singer would set the price for all the other bondholders who didn't take the prior deal. It doesn't matter if they are in the Singer deal or outside of it. Any deal with any holdouts sets the price and establishes a precedent, giving the other holdouts even firmer ground upon which to stand.
If you max out three credit cards, pay off the first one, then the second one, do you really think the third one is going to let you off the hook? For Kicillof to claim that this is the judge pulling "funny stuff," is an indication of how dumb he thinks the people of Argentina are. In fact, the whole of my experience in Argentina (since '07) is that the govt believes that the voting majority is stupid and can be manipulated by repeatedly making the same untrue, simplistic statements (usually point the finger of blame at some (foreign) boogie man).
You can tell that this is no surprise to them and that they don't view the problem as changed by the fact that the Malvinas are not on the front page of the "La Nacion. "
Argentina can't make a deal with any holdouts, unless it includes all hold outs or at least sets a price, which when extrapolated out to all the holdouts, it can afford. Since it can't afford to do that, it won't. Ergo, they aren't even at the negotiating table and won't be, until they can afford to deal with the problem. Better, yet, I would see them kicking the can down the road to the next president so that he can deal with the devaluation and the holdout bondholders. Too bad they can't pay them in pesos...
...the govt believes that the voting majority is stupid and can be manipulated by repeatedly making the same untrue, simplistic statements (usually point the finger of blame at some (foreign) boogie man).
You can tell that this is no surprise to them and that they don't view the problem as changed by the fact that the Malvinas are not on the front page of the "La Nacion. "
And ironically, the Malvinas, so often used as the ever faithful distraction technique, is another of the repeated untruths!
Big Boss Man
06-22-15, 23:00
Buenos Aires is the most expensive city for expats in South America? Brazil must really be in a serious recession.
http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/16/guess-which-ranks-as-the-most-expensive-city-for-expats/
Buenos Aires is the most expensive city for expats in South America? Brazil must really be in a serious recession.
http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/16/guess-which-ranks-as-the-most-expensive-city-for-expats/Hard to believe and I don't.
Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.
Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.Neither 600p privados nor 300U$D chicas!!!!
Wild Walleye
06-23-15, 15:25
Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.Whoever put that together was just tabulating numbers without understanding the realities of the locations. They would have been better off doing a deep dive on the top 20 per region and putting them into real context. By trying to rank every backwater in the world, they relegated the study to a quantitative scorecard.
At AR$12.50:US$1, Bs As is still relatively cheap, despite inflation. The ballpark cost of privado poon (in US$) has increased at about 5.9% per annum, over the past eight years.
More on the Argentina bond debacle.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-says-getting-bullied-202150205.html
Tres3.
The "precios cuidados" for beer went up this week: Biekert to 12,00 a liter and Quilmes Bajo Cero to 12,60. I did not notice if liters of "Uvita" wine, which is also price fixed, went up as well.
TejanoLibre
07-13-15, 21:06
I went in to the local bakery to buy some worthless carbs and the bill was $48.00 pesos.
Normal .
The fully legalized income tax recording , sales tax , cashier , sales receipt spitting machine rang the sale as $4.80 .
I looked at the owner and I said that he would not be able to stay in business otherwise.
He agreed.
Nice little trick.
TL.
The "precios cuidados" for beer went up this week: Biekert to 12,00 a liter and Quilmes Bajo Cero to 12,60. I did not notice if liters of "Uvita" wine, which is also price fixed, went up as well.Out here in the boonies Quilmes is around 15 pesos in the supers. I guess price control only works in the city?
Is that Quilmes Cristal? Cristal or "normal" Quilmes is not on the Precios Cuidados program. Only Quilmes 'Bajo Cero' is. Also Biekert liters and Schneider pint and 12 ounce cans. But Schneider is too nasty even for me. Bajo Cero ain't too bad.
Is that Quilmes Cristal? Cristal or "normal" Quilmes is not on the Precios Cuidados program. Only Quilmes 'Bajo Cero' is. Also Biekert liters and Schneider pint and 12 ounce cans. But Schneider is too nasty even for me. Bajo Cero ain't too bad.Cristal, the others I did not notice. I buy Bud from the "deposito" at 13.35 a bottle, I dont care for Quilmes too much.
Reneging is a way of life in Argentina. The government applies the P.T. Barnum axiom "There's a sucker born every minute", and lenders oblige.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-argentina-consistently-unapologetically-refuses-040104696.html
Tres3.
Spassmusssein
07-19-15, 21:08
With todays mayor´s elections, Buenos Aires and his "oposition" showed, they are unable to govern.
An useless, unsuccessfull ex-banker and ex-minister showed barely the way downstairs.
Argentina so will have an one-handed ex-motonauta as President (maybe just a few weeks), usd tomorrow will be 16 + x.
And maybe it´s good time to leave now for a country with future.
Columbian girls (aside the Paraguayans) always had been a good choice.
With todays mayors elections, Buenos Aires and his "oposition" showed, they are unable to govern.
An useless, unsuccessfull ex-banker and ex-minister showed barely the way downstairs.
Argentina so will have an one-handed ex-motonauta as President (maybe just a few weeks), usd tomorrow will be 16 + x.
And maybe its good time to leave now for a country with future.
Columbian girls (aside the Paraguayans) always had been a good choice.Nearly everybody I talk to says Medellin is the better bet. A good friend was just there and reports nice privado chickees for $20US or less. Perfect weather.
Spassmusssein
07-19-15, 23:57
Nearly everybody I talk to says Medellin is the better bet. A good friend was just there and reports nice privado chickees for $20US or less. Perfect weather.NO beaches in Medellin.
I still have a lovely "girlfriend" in Cali..."Esther"
Cali is as well a very good place.
"Esther" worked in Frankfurt "Bahnhofsviertel".
Lets check it out and come back here in 8 years o so.
NO beaches in Medellin.
I still have a lovely "girlfriend" in Cali..."Esther"
Cali is as well a very good place.
"Esther" worked in Frankfurt "Bahnhofsviertel".
Lets check it out and come back here in 8 years o so.No good beaches to speak of here either..... Besides its much easier to find a REAL girlfriend in Medellin!
NO beaches in Medellin.
.For those beach lovers 'stuck' in Medellin there is an inexpensive fix. For under $80us one can bump up their suntan in Cartagena with a R-T fare on http://www.vivacolombia.co.
Flights from Cali marginally higher. How about a long weekend in Lima? Or Panama City? All for short money.
The currency market did not seem to react at all to the mayoral election as ambito.com is showing 14.07 over 14.22 which is very similar to Friday. Anyway, it would seem to me that a right wing victory would strengthen the currency rather than weaken it. That would be particularly true, I would think, if the election augurs a Macri victory in the presidential election, which is what the argie newspapers are saying.
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