View Full Version : Argentine Economy
HappyGoLucky
08-13-05, 20:55
Economy on the mend?
Final del juego.
Published by The SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS, August 11, 2005
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/12355837.htm
RECOVERY FROM '01 COLLAPSE, BUT NOT PROSPERITY.
By Jack Chang.
Knight Ridder.
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - According to economists, Argentina finally recovered this year from the economic collapse of 2001 that sent the currency plunging and pitched the country into social turmoil.
Unemployment rates have dropped to precollapse levels, shoppers have returned to glitzy Calle Florida in Buenos Aires' city center, and the nation is running big budget surpluses.
So, given all the good news, why does 55-year-old slaughterhouse worker Rodolfo Gómez still earn less than a subsistence-level income, about $300 a month?
A member of a cooperative that took over the slaughterhouse after its owners went bankrupt in 2001, Gómez takes pride in what he and his 500 fellow workers have accomplished.
They took a business that failed in the thick of the economic turmoil and restored it to relative economic health, he said, a feat aided by the growth of the overall economy.
Yet they haven't restored it to prosperity.
"At least people have work instead of sitting in their houses,'' Gómez said, as cow carcasses on hooks passed by. 'And at least my wages have risen, although it's not much.''
It isn't just workers casting doubts on the recovery.
So are foreign investors whose views of Argentina are colored by the country's default on government debt in 2001 -- still the biggest by any nation.
"I tell my clients this is a high-risk investment,'' said Maria Velez de Berliner, president of Alexandria, Va.-based Latin Trade Solutions. 'I will not be surprised if a collapse happens again.''
On paper, the big-picture numbers show an impressive comeback after a traumatic economic blow that impoverished millions within weeks.
Memories of the turmoil still haunt the country: the default; the unpegging of the Argentine peso to the U. S. Dollar, which reduced the peso to a quarter of its former value; and the bloody riots that consumed the country.
After free-falling by some 20 percent during the crisis, Argentina's gross domestic product has climbed back to virtually the same peak it hit in 1998, growing by nearly 9 percent in 2003 and 2004, according to an International Monetary Fund review of the country released last month.
The country's unemployment rate dropped to an estimated 12 percent this year after hitting a 2003 high of 20.8 percent, the report said. The poverty rate similarly fell from a 2002 high of 58 percent to about 35 percent last year.
Much of the economic growth can be traced to China's growing consumption of Argentine agricultural exports such as wheat and soy, which best weathered the crisis, Velez said.
The big economic question now confronting Argentina is where the country goes after two years of stellar growth.
Several Argentine economists predicted total GDP growth would stabilize at about 3 to 4 percent for the next few years.
'When you came from the bottom, you're going to have a great return,'' Velez said. 'Whether you can keep growth at 6, 7, 8 percent, that's highly questionable.''
Although the macroeconomics look good, new jobs aren't paying nearly the same real wages as precollapse positions and the recovery isn't helping enough pocketbooks, said Buenos Aires economist Juan Luis Bour.
For example, per capita GDP has risen but much more slowly than the total GDP. It reached $4,100 in 2004 after falling 65 percent from $7,900 in 2000 to $2,800 in 2002, IMF figures show.
The continued weakness of the Argentine peso, which still hovers at about a third of its precollapse value, also has suppressed buying power, Bour said.
'From the point of view of the people, they don't feel like they have the same money they had seven or eight years ago because they have lower incomes,'' he said. 'There is still a lot of uncertainty.''
Nonetheless, Bour said he believes that the country has emerged from the turmoil. The trick now, he said, is to make the argument to the rest of the world.
'The total GDP has recovered,'' he said. 'The government is now trying to convince everybody that the 2001 crisis is completely over, and it needs to do that through sound fiscal policy.''
That means doing in part what the government has done -- running large trade and budget surpluses and keeping inflation in check.
The administration of President Nestor Kirchner and Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna has also tried to maintain a cheap peso to spur exports.
Ironically, many of those policies come straight from the IMF cookbook despite what's been a largely antagonistic relationship between the country and the fund.
In its review of the country, the IMF board of directors wrote in June, 'Prudent macroeconomic policies in 2003-04 have provided an anchor for the recovery of confidence.'' Directors 'commended the authorities for their steadfast implementation of fiscal policy.''
I read in the Clarin economy section a history of the Argentine economy. I already knew about some of it, but not in such detail. Between 1970 and 1992 (the beginning of the US$ convertibility era, which was apparantly the only relatively stable fiscal era in recent history) there were about 5 currency changes and 13 zeros were lopped of the national currency - about 3 zeros every 5 years or so. Thats about 300% average inflation per year. It was about 5000% in 1989, I believe Alfonsin's last year. That 5000% number (along with the largest sovereign debt default in world history) is in the record books - I think only interwar Germany may have had a higher rate until Hitler took charge. Have the fundamentals here changed - I think not. My forecast for August 15, 2010: 1 dollar = 200,000.00 pesos. 1/2 hour sexo convencional at Santa Fe 1707 - 8,000,000.00 pesos (30% cheaper) That is if the currency is still called "pesos".
Nibu Raphael
03-27-06, 18:25
Why is still cheap in Argentina and in Brazil 2 to 1 these days? How come Brazil can not be as cheap as Argentina these days?
I would describe the recovery as ''a dead cat bounce''! It is not likely to be sustainable. The current inflation (much higher than reported) wage cost inflation, and price controls make a sustained recovery less likely. This is in addition to Kirchner's incredibly stupid economic policies, an undervaled peso, protectionist policies, anti-investment policies, no credit available, contracts are suspect, crooked courts, mafia, bureaucracy, difficulties to return capital to AR, high export taxes, anti-agrarian policies, coveting socialist countries and not capitalist countries, etc. Have I left out anything? Although the fall election seem like a sure thing for Kirchner, it all could fall apart with a rapid rise in inflation. Or rapid inflation after the election. Then what? Kirchner will become a ''lame duck''. And political and economic chaos could ensue.Papa Benito:
All gurues from the City have been predicting the same aftermath scenario as yours since 2002. I'm still waiting for that to happen.
Of course, eventually, the current econmic policies will become outdated and a new crisis will emerge. But that happened to EVERY economic policies applied to Argentina, including those that involved "an overvalued peso, free-trade policies, low export taxes, pro-agrarian policies", etc.
Andres
Of course I should have included the debt repudiation, the minority hold-outs, other huge debt, the dwindling surplus, sour relations with the IMF, and continuous new public works projects to ''buy'' votes. Plus a real rate of unemployment of 15 per cent, 14 million poor people, and 47 per cent of the labor force working in illegal conditions (Buenos Aires Herald)Interesting point: If Argentina cancels all its commitments to the IMF, it is deemed "sour relations". If it repudiated the debt to the IMF, it would be called an "irresponsible country".
What is the correct policy then, from your perspective?
Andres
What is the correct policy then?
Of course, eventually, the current econmic policies will become outdated and a new crisis will emerge. But that happened to EVERY economic policies applied to Argentina, including those that involved "an overvalued peso, free-trade policies, low export taxes, pro-agrarian policies", etc.So, is there any correct policy since nothing ever works?
I would describe the recovery as ''a dead cat bounce''! It is not likely to be sustainable. The current inflation (much higher than reported) wage cost inflation, and price controls make a sustained recovery less likely. This is in addition to Kirchner's incredibly stupid economic policies, an undervaled peso, protectionist policies, anti-investment policies, no credit available, contracts are suspect, crooked courts, mafia, bureaucracy, difficulties to return capital to AR, high export taxes, anti-agrarian policies, coveting socialist countries and not capitalist countries, etc. Have I left out anything? Although the fall election seem like a sure thing for Kirchner, it all could fall apart with a rapid rise in inflation. Or rapid inflation after the election. Then what? Kirchner will become a ''lame duck''. And political and economic chaos could ensue.Excellent post.
Here's more: http://www.mises.org/story/1472
Anybody get any good pussy lately? I'm in sex prison. That's the dead zone that stretches across the globe from Pakistan to Morroco and then jumps over and includes the entire fucking United States.
So, is there any correct policy since nothing ever works?It depends on what do you mean by "works".
To me, policies work when they fit a desirable agenda (or "political program" or "project of society") FDR's New Deal worked for a given scenario at a given time, but it wasn't sustainable forever. We cannot say though that FDR policies never worked.
IMO, the advantage of Kirchner's agenda it's that it restored the economy to a more "real" base, rather than the artificially-inflated, financially-based economy of the 90s. Whether it will remain sustainable or not is another issue.
A fact is that there's growth somewhat independently from the financial markets. That "independency" (sustained by a dependency to a high soy value) is what pisses off many people in this board, since that clearly means that such sector hasn't the influence that it used to have. Otherwise, I cannot understand why people complain about cancelling the debt to the IMF.
Andres
IMO, the advantage of Kirchner's agenda it's that it restored the economy to a more "real" base, rather than the artificially-inflated, financially-based economy of the 90s. Whether it will remain sustainable or not is another issue.It's not sustainable when you fail to reduce the public sector's 60%+ claim on the economy and inflate the currency by printing ever greater amounts of pesos and artifically restrict price fluctuations (export restrictions, price controls, etc).
A fact is that there's growth somewhat independently from the financial markets. That "independency" (sustained by a dependency to a high soy value) is what pisses off many people in this board, since that clearly means that such sector hasn't the influence that it used to have. Otherwise, I cannot understand why people complain about cancelling the debt to the IMF.The IMF was looked to by the markets as a source of stability and a restraining influence on Argentine policy makers. There is now free rein for Mr. Kirchner to do what he wants, for good or ill. I'm guessing ill. But then I am a student of history, not a wishful thinker.
Papa Benito and Hunt99, are spot on the issues and show remarkable understanding of macroeconomic issues. I fully agree with them both, but lets not forget that the whole growth story in Argentina is sustained by strong international fundamentals. In that context, the party could go on for longer than expected and macro indicators are very positive (other than inflation, which is the result of excess money, too much agregate demad, and why not relative price adjustements) The main problem is that the microfoundations of this recovery are poor and deteriorating. This eventually will come to hunt the country as international conditions worsen. In particular, a fall in commodity prices and higher international K markets risk aversion could be very damaging to the country.
It's not sustainable when you fail to reduce the public sector's 60%+ claim on the economy and inflate the currency by printing ever greater amounts of pesos and artifically restrict price fluctuations (export restrictions, price controls, etc)
The IMF was looked to by the markets as a source of stability and a restraining influence on Argentine policy makers. There is now free rein for Mr. Kirchner to do what he wants, for good or ill. I'm guessing ill. But then I am a student of history, not a wishful thinker.As far as I know, the public sector was always oversized and poorly managed, which provided easy-to-get contracts to many lobbies. There's no interest to the elites to reform that, since an efficient public sector goes against many of their interests.
By the way, I cannot get the rational of inflating the currency by PRINTING. Usually, that's the opposite (the more you print, the less your currency is worth)
If I were to choose, I would prefere a less controlled price scheme and a more stringent taxation system. The problem is that many sectors are against of building the latter, and free prices along with no social protection measures would bring Argentina to the levels of violence seen in Mexico, Colombia or Brazil. 2002-2003 were so nasty in terms of crime that Argentinos prefer to control it by implementing "progressive" policies.
The IMF is clearly one of the most important lobbies for the "markets"', and very far from its intended role, to the point that its recommendations and policies are now VERY far away from the Bretton Woods agreements. What the financial markets regret is that the IMF isn't listened as much as before.
Argentina could get out of the pit left by the peso peg without the IMF and against their recommendations. No wonder why many people lost confidence in such institution.
Andres
My answer would be to reverse all the policies that defy the laws of econmics. Then, support the export sector, allow freer trade, prosecute and persecute the mafia, restore the order of law, clean up the judiciary, support contractural law, improve the banking sector, create a Fannie Mae, encourage capital investment, stop the populist rhetoric (your mills) which discourages all foreign investment, reduce the growth rate of the money supply, pay-off the hold outs from the repudiation, improve tax collection, clean-up the police force, stop the control of prices, improve the infrastructure utilizing the unemployed, improve relations with the IMF, reduce Socialism, listen to knowledgeble men like Hunt99, and Moore, mas, mas, mas!I wonder how you would fight mafias, clean the police and "restore" any order (when there wasn't any before) when the very elites support and / or encourage these issues. That's what I call wishful thinking.
If you want to change a country, you need to understand that its constitutive society has strong mechanisms and official and unofficial checking structures, that are there for a reason. For instance, populist rethoric (understanding that as saying what people want to hear) is part of the package. You cannot go against it within a democratic system, and you cannot trigger a sustainable dictatorship. Those are the rules you have to play with, not the ideal measures that you would like to take.
Anyway, guys, if you want to rant and rave, that's your call. I just try to make you see things from a different perspective so that you can stop beating the same horse and getting nowhere, but I'm afraid that I'm losing my time trying to explain something to people obsessed with Socialist fanthoms.
Andres
Rock Harders
03-29-06, 00:36
Andres-
I think the irony of most of the Monger-Economist arguments on this board is that they argue that essentially Argentina should be more like the USA in terms of politics, economics and business practices. What I think they are missing is that if Argentina operated exactly like the USA, they would not want to come here. You cannot have the cheap steak, the cheap pussy, and cheap living when a country has an efficient, low-corruption, socioeconomic and political system. Think about it.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
What I think they are missing is that if Argentina operated exactly like the USA, they would not want to come here. You cannot have the cheap steak, the cheap pussy, and cheap living when a country has an efficient, low-corruption, socioeconomic and political system. The "smart money" is acutely aware of this Dirk, exploiting the situation and r.e.a.p.ing the rewards.:D
Figuring out Argentina's issues is sort of like figuring out women - it is a journey that has no end. The fundamental problems are static and quite easy to diagnose, but their recurring manifestations never cease to amaze.
Andres-
I think the irony of most of the Monger-Economist arguments on this board is that they argue that essentially Argentina should be more like the USA in terms of politics, economics and business practices. What I think they are missing is that if Argentina operated exactly like the USA, they would not want to come here. You cannot have the cheap steak, the cheap pussy, and cheap living when a country has an efficient, low-corruption, socioeconomic and political system. Think about it.
Suerte,
Dirk DigglerDirk,
Absolutely. You cannot have ALL the advantages of a Third World country if it becomes a developed one.
What I point out is that, as Moore mentions in his last post, people here is trying to FIGURE IT OUT how Argentina works. Using the US as the "universal reference standard" doesn't help to do so. If the fundamentals were so clear, a politician such as Menem would have solved it with a handful of rules, but the fact is that these rules aren't suitable or applicable. The issue is more complex than it looks like.
For instance, I agree with Moore, Hunt and others that corruption isn't the best ingredient for a business to thrive. However, some countries such as Italy were able to grow despite of a highly corrupted system (that political structure called lotisazzione between 1950 and 1990) In fact, lotisazzione was necessary to encourage old money (Fiat, for instance) to invest in some areas without worrying about competition from others. After all, the Italian financial system differs significantly from the American one, so if you as the government want to encourage investments, you have to deal with the system in place.
Andres
Andres,
Argentina did not get out of the "pit left by the peso peg" without the IMF, but against the IMF - by defaulting on her international debts. In fact, Argentina declared bankruptcy. As far as I know, an unprecedented act of a country.
While this is seen as a heroic act by many Argentineans (in fact, all I know) it is seen quite differently by Argentina's creditors, public as well as private. Anybody who invested money in Argentinean tresury bonds is certainly not amused.
The main impact this may have is towards the credibility of countries in general. Up to now, any country's government bonds in hard currency - Dollars, Euros, Swiss Francs, Sterling etc - where considered trustworthy, the perception was that nation states could not go bankrupt. This has changed, and may result in far bigger difficulties for some countries to get credit on the finacial markets. Which, btw. Is not necessarily bad.
Please don't consider this as "ranting and reving". I am not looking at the world from an U.S. Point of view, but from an European. Personally, I am torn between appreciating and condemning Kirchner's policy, tending a bit more to the latter. Declaring bankruptcy, in the usual sense within a working legal system, may rid you of your debts, but also puts you under strict rules. Argentina, so it seems, wants the best of 2 worlds.
Just my 2 centavos.
El Alemán
What I point out is that, as Moore mentions in his last post, people here is trying to FIGURE IT OUT how Argentina works. Using the US as the "universal reference standard" doesn't help to do so. However, some countries such as Italy were able to grow despite of a highly corrupted system Thats a good point which I was going to bring up Andres. I do not use the US as a "universal reference standard", especially for a country like Argentina which I believe is more oriented toward a more socialistic system that is more common in W Europe. But how a country like Italy, apparently having many similar issues as Argentina (corruption, Latins, instability, etc) is able to maintain a relatively expensive social system yet still be a 1st-world G7 country is something I don't fully understand. Why can't Argentina do the same?
Thats a good point which I was going to bring up Andres. I do not use the US as a "universal reference standard", especially for a country like Argentina which I believe is more oriented toward a more socialistic system that is more common in W Europe. But how a country like Italy, apparently having many similar issues as Argentina (corruption, Latins, instability, etc) is able to maintain a relatively expensive social system yet still be a 1st-world G7 country is something I don't fully understand. Why can't Argentina do the same?Perhaps because Italian politicians only steal with one hand, but not both?
Perhaps because Italian politicians only steal for themselves, instead of inviting their wives, brothers, sisters, in-laws, and cousins to join them in looting the treasury, robbing the taxpayers, shaking down the businessmen, and requiring government workers to kick back portions of their salaries (oops, I mean make "contributions" to the union)?
Perhaps because Italian politicians occasionally go to jail for corruption?
Perhaps because Italian politicians understand that when they take a bribe it doesn't mean they're entitled to seize the bribegiver's entire business?
Some of our other posters could offer a few more examples.
Andres,
Argentina did not get out of the "pit left by the peso peg" without the IMF, but against the IMF - by defaulting on her international debts. As far as I know, Argentina never stopped paying loans to international institutions (IMF, World Bank, IDB) Just the private debt was defaulted.
Andres
Thats a good point which I was going to bring up Andres. I do not use the US as a "universal reference standard", especially for a country like Argentina which I believe is more oriented toward a more socialistic system that is more common in W Europe. But how a country like Italy, apparently having many similar issues as Argentina (corruption, Latins, instability, etc) is able to maintain a relatively expensive social system yet still be a 1st-world G7 country is something I don't fully understand. Why can't Argentina do the same?Seamless access to the European markets is an important issue. High quality of manufactured goods (among them, textiles) is another to mention.
Andres
Jjgoinslow
04-13-06, 02:08
Andres-
I think the irony of most of the Monger-Economist arguments on this board is that they argue that essentially Argentina should be more like the USA in terms of politics, economics and business practices. What I think they are missing is that if Argentina operated exactly like the USA, they would not want to come here. You cannot have the cheap steak, the cheap pussy, and cheap living when a country has an efficient, low-corruption, socioeconomic and political system. Think about it.Huh? So efficiency and low-corruption result in higher prices? Isn't this essentially the opposite of the many arguments for privatizing supposedly inefficient goverment services to improve efficiency and lower prices. Of course those arguments are a load of crap, privatization almost always leads to boosts in prices. I think there needs some reevaluating of perspectives here. I don't think it is useful to attempt to compare the 'quantity' of corruption in Argentina to the US. It is more instructive to look at the substance of corruption, in Argentina corruption seems to be ingrained at a micro level, a way of doing business (ie always count your change) whereas in the US I think small actors are likely to be mostly legit, playing by the rules. However, in the US the government and Fortune 500 companies have corrupt practices that are on such a scale so as to dwarf a so-called 3rd world country. Think Enron, Halliburton, Worldcom, Global Crossing, etc. Or think about the worlds largest economy which is DEPENDENT on military spending. Or the Saviings and Loan bailout, or the raiding of the social security 'trust fund', too many examples to cite, but the raiding is generally done at a system level where the individual does not see the direct impact, certainly the ultra-rich do not directly see the direct impact. As some wise dude said something like: the US has socialized costs and debts but privatized benefits.
Jj
Jj,
Please can you list a few examples of a state-run enterprise providing a cheaper, more efficient product than a private enterprise.
I don't fully agree with your theory that corruption is more problematic at a micro level in Argentina and vice-versa in USA. Corruption seems rampant at all levels here from the street cop to the president of the country. Outright plunder probably is a better term than corruption. One major difference is that criminals are often prosecuted in USA. Measures and new regs are often put in place after a major problem to prevent recurrence. A US commoner who has grown up in an ethical environment is a lot less likely to be a criminal upon attaining a powerful corporate/political position than someone who was raised in a very corrupt environment.
If corruption/ethics are very bad at all levels then I don't think any system - socialist or more market oriented - works for the general population, save a dictatorship to some extent. Lots of dictators in Latin history. And when the basic system is broke, local goods will be cheap for people with hard currency regardless of the politics currently being preached.
Jjgoinslow
04-13-06, 23:43
Hah! Give an example of the opposite, that is: a government service which has been privatized and as a result became cheaper and more efficient.
The Postal System is an excellent example, private enterprise only attempts to compete in niches, because the PO is incredibly cheap and efficient. In fact, it is quite arguable that without government buildout we would not have ubiquity that we enjoy of communications systems in the US, direct public works projects built the Postal System as well as the roads to carry the mail. Furthermore government regs aided buildout with Telephone (although it was in fact a private monopoly for the most part during buildout, but a regulated one) Information services such as libraries have historically been public enterprises, whenever an information resource is privatized, it becomes more expensive. When communities or countries privatize or sell off their utilities, the prices generally go up as well and problems often arise with quality (water) or reliability (energy) Market fundamentalism is a nieve viewpoint of course because there is no such thing as a free market, there are businesses which compete in an unevenly subsidized field (military contractors, energy sector) or compete in an unevenly regulated field (communications) etc ad nosium, but there is no such thing as a free market. There is a myth that cold war russia was unable to keep up technologically, when in fact they were outpacing us in the 1950s (think sputnik) During the cold war (before russian went bankrupt attempting to keep up with the arms race) there was a lot of comparison going on between the soviet model of innovation and the US model, and industry in the US argued for federal subsidy because they could not produce products as cheaply as a centrally managed industry seen in the USSR.
I guess I broadened the discussion there, but I would argue for a healthy mix of public works (more than the US now has, unless you perceive military spending as a public works project! And a market economy which includes well regulated sectors and other where optimal, unregulated sectors.
A tangential point, with all the advocacy ive seen on this board for market liberalization (through the imf) it has widely been pointed out that the IMFs policies have been disastrous for any developing country which has fallen victum to them.
Has anyone seen the film (about argentina) The Take? By Naomi Klein and another whose name I forget. Its about the economic collapse.
Jj.
Jj,
Please can you list a few examples of a state-run enterprise providing a cheaper, more efficient product than a private enterprise.
I don't fully agree with your theory that corruption is more problematic at a micro level in Argentina and vice-versa in USA. Corruption seems rampant at all levels here from the street cop to the president of the country. Outright plunder probably is a better term than corruption. One major difference is that criminals are often prosecuted in USA. Measures and new regs are often put in place after a major problem to prevent recurrence. A US commoner who has grown up in an ethical environment is a lot less likely to be a criminal upon attaining a powerful corporate / political position than someone who was raised in a very corrupt environment.
If corruption / ethics are very bad at all levels then I don't think any system - socialist or more market oriented - works for the general population, save a dictatorship to some extent. Lots of dictators in Latin history. And when the basic system is broke, local goods will be cheap for people with hard currency regardless of the politics currently being preached.
Goblin,
Please rewrite that.
OttoGraham
04-14-06, 10:43
Goblin,
Please rewrite that.WTF? Are you suggesting that somebody might have access to more than one handle? That could never happen on this board!
Jjgoinslow
04-15-06, 03:33
Goblin,
Please rewrite that.Mira, don't be lazy, if you are going to try and make such connections, at least take the time to do your research and read folks posts rather than stabbing in the dark.
For example, below is a quote from Goblin, and if you read both our posts on this board, you would reasonably conclude we offer quite different viewpoints. Or perhaps, I am creating alter egos for myself in order to manipulate you for some as yet unrevealed, but certainly diabolical purpose! HaHaHahahahahahahaha! Or maybe you are really the guy that thought you were being followed at the boliche?
Well, I won't wait for that well thought out response RE the argentine vs the US economy, thats not why we're here anyway!
Jj.
Goblin wrote:
I am beginning to believe that a relationship with an American warhog is even more impossible.
Really every woman in North America has developed herself into a different cultural reality by virtue of the varying ideologies that have been woven in our fragmented society. To be truthful I feel even more foreign in the company of our woman.
I'm not sure what your point is Jj.
One day you post about the horribly corrupt "macro" level practices of the US govt but now you write that the govt is actually responsible for successes of the country such as developing the postal / road network.
You complain about the high US military spending but then praise the USSR. Comparing the USA to USSR (any decade) is somewhat like comparing the USA to Cambodia, albeit a Cambodia with a space program and nuclear submarines. There's an example of a niche market (USSR military) that you claim is the only market served by private enterprise - it was the only market being served by their centrally managed system.
I still suspect you could be Goblin, based more upon your bizarre nature than your "viewpoints". Maybe we'll have a thread called "Jjgoinslow's Opinions" shortly.
Jjgoinslow
04-15-06, 21:02
Hmmm. I unfortunately tend to forget how scarce a resource is critical thinking. US history is not monolithic. The existence of corruption does not preclude current or historical public works projects (even within such projects, the postal system and road buildout for example was the site of mucho political patronage as is I imagine the rebuilding of New Orleans today) History as with reality is under no obligation to present itself to you in an orderly fashion, it is instead quite messy. Obviously the USSR is quite a bit different than Cambodia, OF COURSE one can compare nations, some people spend their entire lives studying and writing about the historical parallels and discontinuities between the US and the USSR. I can see that having further historical or political discussion with you would be a real waste, so ill try to keep to the chica-related threads!
Jj
Each of the handles "Goblin" and "jjgoinslow" contain material obviously written by two (or more) different persons. One is using American English and the other is not. It's extremely clear that two or more people are sharing each of these handles. In fact, the posts under the handle "Goblin" have stated both that Goblin is American and that he, she, or it is not.
That leads to one or both of the following questions:
1) Why?
2) Who cares?
Neither one of these two handles has contributed anything of any value to the forum.
Hmmm. I unfortunately tend to forget how scarce a resource is critical thinking. US history is not monolithic. The existence of corruption does not preclude current or historical public works projects (even within such projects, the postal system and road buildout for example was the site of mucho political patronage as is I imagine the rebuilding of New Orleans today) History as with reality is under no obligation to present itself to you in an orderly fashion, it is instead quite messy. Obviously the USSR is quite a bit different than Cambodia, OF COURSE one can compare nations, some people spend their entire lives studying and writing about the historical parallels and discontinuities between the US and the USSR. I can see that having further historical or political discussion with you would be a real waste, so ill try to keep to the chica-related threads!
Jj
Each of the handles "Goblin" and "jjgoinslow" contain material obviously written by two (or more) different persons. One is using American English and the other is not. It's extremely clear that two or more people are sharing each of these handles. In fact, the posts under the handle "Goblin" have stated both that Goblin is American and that he, she, or it is not.
.I would like to know exactly what makes you think that I am not American? Have you seen my passport or are you as usual jumping to the wrong conclusions?
Goblin
Thomaso276
06-22-06, 12:24
I think the Gov't is already subsidizing them so much they want a piece of ownership. Union wants them in too.
I don't really think this goes in the AR thread, but then again, what does. I am glad you brought it up Benny. And BTW, I don't need to convince anyone, just have respect for other people and other ideas. You forgot to report on Ecuadors new president as well, Correa. Latin America belongs to latin americans, if you don't like their politics you can always move back to the U. S., so don't fret.
Badboy
Thats the great thing Benny, because guess what? YOU aren't venezuelan, so who gives a shit what you think? The elections were clean and fair and internationaly certified, so that is democracy for you. I wouldn't worry about the venezuelans, I would worry more about your own country, and your own countries economy, foreign policy and all the blood on it's hands. Chavez? Last time I checked he didn't have blood on his hands, and if he is such a dictator, then why doesn't the 60% of the country that voted for him agree with you? All the poeple in Rosales' camp have come out and said Chavez is no dictator, there is no evidence, you are sounding more and more like a hysterical miami cuban. I am getting kinda creeped out at this fixation you have on me though. But anyways, I am happy about this election and so are the 60% that voted for him, and THAT is what matters, and as long as Chavez isn't killing poor people in third world countries then I don't really think Dumb shit egotistical overbearing americans like you have an argument.
Fix your own dumb shit country and then worry about fixing the world. If they let you, and if they don't want your help STAY HOME and leave them alone.
Badboy,
Think what you want Benny, your little catch phrases make me laugh. But the bottom line is there was never any substance to your rants. No factual information. Of course I am sure alot of people agree and even share your political leanings on this board and in spirit they might agree with you, but if you are talking about factual historical accuracy. No one could ever say you ever won an argument against me. Believe me there are alot of intelligent people on this forum and there are some who have made me think and bested me in an argument, but you, my friend, are not one of them. You seem like a very bitter ungreatful person that gets his rocks off insulting latin american countries, their electorate and their leaders. I don't know many thoughtful individuals who would ever agree with that behavior. So if you are somehow getting kudos for your borderline rascist remarks from other AP memebrs, then I don't really care much for their opinions. And you can continue to play this whole sarcasm bit for as long as you want, but it has gotten old and tired (kinda like you), though I guess it is much easier than factual debate.
So knock yourself out, you used to upset me, and anger many Argentines in the process, but now I am starting to realize, YOU are the joke, not your comments but you. Because you are the one who feels the need to continue to be stupid. You represent the past and you and your reality are slowly fading away.
Have fun,
Badboy
Forgive me, but I didn't quite get the point of your last post. It reads like what I imagine Rush Limbaugh sounds like when he's on his "medications."
Mad ramblings from ideologues, whether from the left or right, are obnoxious. Statements like:
"Big government, big brother, communism, socialism, populism fail."
"Over and over, they fail"
Oh, this is an undisputed fact, huh? China lifting 200 thousand people out of poverty in the last 20 years, is that a failure? Sweden for the last 40 years?
"Were you also a believer in Stalin, Kruschev, Hitler, Mussolini,.
Hirohito, Mao, Pol Pot, Ho Chi Min, the N. Korean dictator, etc."
You won't hear me defending these people, but I wouldn't easily categorize these people as "communist" or "populist" or whatever label you seem to be ascribing to them. Also, were you or are you a believer in Pinochet, Suharto, Franco, Rios Montt, Kai-shek, Niyazov, Crown Prince Abdullah, etc.
If your point is that tyrants and dictators tend to be evil people, I don't think you'll hear Bad Boy disagreeing. But just don't pompously try to lecture about the virtues of a "well rounded [sic] education", and act like you are above the political fray, because clearly you are not.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5832390545689805144&q=the+revolution+will+not+be+televised
The film posted above is worth watching if you keep an open mind. Chavez may not be your idea of a hero, but compare poor people in Guatemala or El Salvador to poor people in Venezuela and Cuba and I doubt that even you would have an unequivocal opinion about who is better off.
For the last time, I was never "trained" by anyone, I have my opinions just like you have yours. We have Big Government in the US and it is getting bigger and Big Brother is all getting more technoligically advanced and more intrusive. And I never said those are good things, you are arguing with yourself I never said those things. I think you have a problem with labels, " isms" are played out, I don't think any one type of government is horrible or great, I think some can be more effective under different circumstances and for different purposes, capitalism is used to accumulate wealth and capital ergo capitalism and it doesn't take into account the social toll, socialism is used to distribute national wealth and resources amouth the society ergo socialism, communism is used to instill a sense of community and togetherness and also a sense of what is good for the collective is better than what is only good for an individual. All these isms have their strong points and their weak points, the weak points being human nature which is easily corrupted. THAT is the biggest problem corruption. In regards to your " mix " comment, if you read my earliest posts you will see that what I advocated was just that (for the near future) a socially conscience capitalism. I think if you had more responsible capitalist leaders, you would see less rejection of that social model. But the more extreme the disparities and greater the capitulation to big business and US sponsored policies, the stronger the socialist model will become.
To answer your questions, Soviet socialism was corrupt, it didn't start off that way and it did alot of good around the world and I would go into all the good and all the ills they actually did, but all that information would fly past your head since you never lived it. But I will say this for every 5 people that speak negatively of Soviet Socialism there will be 5 who will disagree. I have lived it and even though I wasn't alive during it's hay day and it did have it's moment in the Sun, I have seen the good and bad and if anything, it's biggest fault which persipitated its end was it forgot about significant social spending, in a sense it forgot about it's youth, it focused on playing the premacy game with the US, That is why it had the biggest war machine and the largest nuclear arsenal, but they spent their money on the wrong things.
You seem to belittle the choice of millions of latin americans around the world just because you don't agree, you seem to always make wild inuendos about dictatorships fraudulant elections and so on even though the world, OAS, UN, EU and the Opposition itself are stating there was no fraud and they lost. So whatever inaccurate right wing media you are quoting is obviously severely divorced from reality. Again I am sure you will try to salvage those statements somehow, though an honest man would take them back. The world doesn't belong to you or to the US, so if people choose a different path you need to respect them and let them choose their destiny.
And I could go on and on about US presidents and US sponsored dictators who would be considered either terrorists or war criminals in an international court. We can go back and forth about the war crimes of the US, in and out of latin america. For days. But guess what, this forum isn't meant for that. You use this forum to do nothing but speak of your own malcontent with a country and a people who have allowed you to freely live among them and that is not only ungreatful but disrespectful and it denotes a certain level of classic rascism, you seem to think you and your education is the only truth and you are somehow superior to all these people that don't think like you, and because of that belief you seem to think it is your right to go onto a sex forum and rant and rave about how horrible these countries, their governments and their stupid electorate is (I make this last comment, because that is what you are insinuating) This country and this continent is not yours, if you hate it, leave it, if you stay here, please respect it and its people.
I would suggest you go back to school, it's never too late, but it seems whatever it is you learned in school 30 years ago has now become outdated and obsolete. The world is changing and believe it or not it won't change according to your beliefs or mine for that matter. What I can tell you is latin america isn't you fathers latin america, and to the majority it is changing for the better, so who cares what either of us think, if in the end we are both fighting for latin american freedom of choice and self determination. Let them have their cake and eat it too, and lets us get back to talking about pertinent topics on this sex forum, like sex and women and good food the things that would interest and be helpful to the general tourist monger population.
Badboy
P. S. I have been in the ''political fray'' for 50 years, possibly before you were born. It shows, Look Benny, I know tons of Chinese, they love their country and have a strong sense of nationalism, and I can tell you from my first hand experience that those hundreds of millions of middle class are some wealthy motherfuckers. Pollution is huge, but that goes for every industrialized country. You can challenge all the dicators you want, but I don't think Jacksons sex forum is the proper place to make a stand. Again leave The venezuelans alone, they have done nothing to you, you seem to talk about Chavez alot but you fail to mention the country before him, I was their before and during Chavez and I can tell you, people are living well, and the poor are living better than they are living in any other country and remember they are the majority. And you made a pretty rediculous statement, Chavez is in office because of oil? No he is in office because of his social programs for the majority and the fact that that country has had continual economic growth, It is only logical that he use the profits for the people. The main gripes the opposition has are twofold, the crime rate, which has gone up, and a better distribution of the oil wealth to benifit the upper middle class. The country democratically elected him, leave them alone. You sound like one of those motherfuckers who would have praised Pinochet and Videla and Somoza for wise capitalist policies while failing to mention the thousands that were being disapeared. If those are your views I think we all can understand the only good dictator is a capitalist one right benny?
And the only good communist is a dead one, aint that right McCarthy, yeah I can see where your politics come from. You can post what you want but don't post libelous opinions with no basis in reality. Say what you want but if you say the elections were fraudulent you might want to back that up with some facts and not just what the miami cubans told you.
Badboy.
And don't pretend to tell me anything about the Soviet Union, I know my country well enough, even though you just basically repeated what I said. The Soviet Union collapsed for many reasons yes, but the biggest reason was they lost support from the Youth of the country, if the youth were behind the country, they would have never collapsed. The problem was they focused on military spending and stopped spending on society and youth. During it's hay day, the U. S. S. R was educating millions from the URS and from just about every country in the world all for free. Towards the end they didn't have the money to do it.
I can and have lived in the US, the USSR, Europe and Latin America. They are all wonderful places and as an intelligent human being I understand that no country is perfect and the longer you study a country, it's politics and its society the shorter the honeymoon period becomes.
Have respect man and know you do offend alot of Latin Americans when you post unfounded rumors about their countries, their leaders and their way of life. Understand that, and maybe we won't butt heads too often.
It's been grand Grandpa Ben.
Badboy
PS, you might want to spell the title of your post properly if you are trying to insult me at least spell the insult correctly
I did not know you were so sensitive sir, please accept my apologies. I didn't call you a drunk, but merely suggested that your last post read as if you wrote it drunk. There's no need to go crumudgeon on me, I was merely responding to some of your statements in your last post; I would hardly characterize them as ad hominem. And I get the feeling that you didn't watch the movie, did you?
Now, on to the fun part.
1. Thank you for correcting my error on 200 million, that is indeed what I meant (I wouldn't have had corrected it, but thank you) As for China, I agree with you. I am not a big fan of the country. But you probably don't see today's China as capitalism run amock and what happens without environmental regulation or the stark results of nationalism / patriotism; you probably spin it as communist idiots that don't quite understand capitalism and democracy.
2. Sweden had a 2.7 percent growth rate last year, around the same rate it has had for the last couple of years. Sure, you're going to say that this is in light of privatizations and wage deregulation, and I won't disagree with you there. Sweden, like every other country in the world is trying to find the right balance, it just starts out with a different starting point. (note, I didn't even mention Norway. Yes, I know, oil reserves.
3. Smooth move on your last response. Didn't even mention Cuba, huh? Ok, what I should have said was compare the poor in Cuba to the Dominican Republic / Guatemala / El Salvador / Honduras / Jamaica, or the poor in Venezuela pre-Chavez to the poor today. What then? With your blinders on, I'm sure you're going to say, the poor in Venezuela would be even better off now if it didn't have Chavez, right? Whatever, at least the guy is trying. I think a strong hand should be the last resort, but America (and its puppets) has been trying for the last 50 years to get Latin America on its feet and it hasn't worked. Maybe what countries in Latin America need is someone like S. Korea's Park? Who is John Galt? But surely, you would agree that the world is not as simple as dictator=bad, democracy=good. Or communism=bad, capitalism=good. And that was my intended point in my last post.
I leave you with a quote from one of my favorites:
"The more I read, the more I meditate; and the more I acquire, the more I am enabled to affirm that I know nothing"
--Voltaire.
Humbly,
The Last Don
I like how you glossed over Don's post. It is very telling of both your character and political analysis. Again, I think Hunt99 said it best, if you want to talk politics go rant on dailykaos. Com, By if you are insinuating something like fraudulent elections in Venezuela, you better have some factual information to back it up or else it is libel. Again, and these are facts, The UN, EU, OAS and many other groups that were observers validated the elections, Not to mention the very opposition, so you and the few miami cubans seem to be the only ones crying foul. In short, you are lying if you say the elections were fruadulent, or do you just have a " gut " feeling? Chavez is in power because he is doing good things that benifit the majority of Venezuelans. Plain and simple, Venezuela could be making twice what it makes now in Oil revenue, BUT and these are two very important butts that you fail to mention, If Chavez would not have renegociated sweetheart deals for the oil industry, Venezuela wouldn't be making anything or very little, this is a fact, one that you would like to gloss over. Second, even with increased oil revenues due in part to high oil prices but mainly renegociated oil contracts, if Chavez and his policies weren't benifiting the majority of Venezuelans, then he would not have been re-elected. Your argument is flawed and it reaks of close mindedness. You are the type of person, that even when you know you are wrong, you will continue to argue for the sake of arguing. Keep it up, however old you really are gramps with your " 50 years in politics ", you seem to still display a certain level of emotional and social and political immaturity that comes out in all your political posts.
Equating Miami cubans to Casto Cuba doesn't make sense. What would be sincere and relavent would be to first, compare Early Castro Cuba with Bautista's Cuba, which anyone that lived in Cuba at the time and wasn't a member of the social elite would tell you was a shit hole. You also fail to mention the FACT, that Catro Cuba didn't start out authoritarian or Communist also Historical FACTS. Castro Cuba's first choice was the U. S, the US snubbed them and so the Cubans were forced into the Soviets hands, this is again all documented historical facts. And with all the Documented facts regarding all the distabalizing tactics by the CIA, Operation Mongoose? CIA trained and funded Luis Posada Carriles? The bombing of Cubana Flight 455, 1976, Operation 40, The Bay of Pigs? I could go on and on, all historical documented facts. Imagine for one moment how the U. S would look if we had endured all the political, economic, military, covert distabalizing agression that Cuba has on it's own soil. The US knows this and that is one reason they continue, with every overt or covert action they take the more authoritarian the cuban government becomes, the US government knows this, yet they don't care, they only care about showing the Cuban government as an authoritarian regime.
The next flaw in your argument between Miami and Cuba is this, no country in latin america is Miami, take one look at all the latin american countries in the caribean and central america that have faced and been victims of US interventions, Guatemala? El Salvador? Nicaragua? Haiti? Dominican Rep? I am sure all these capitalist free market economies look just like Miami right? Wrong they are all economic basket cases with a 70-80% poverty rate, where children die by the thousands of curable diseases, the poor have no education and the only freedom the majority seem to have is the freedom to be poor, the freedom to not have adequate food or education or health care. What the hell do these people care about our silly Ivory Tower analysis of their freedoms if all the see is poverty, lack of basic education, health care and food. It is easy for someone like you to speak because you have never lived the way these people have lived, you weren't in El Salvador during their civil war and all the military dictatorships that pacified the unions and the workers so big US corporations could make huge profits exploiting the countries, land, people, and resources. You weren't in Nicaragua during Somoza were you? You didn't lose 60-70 % of your family during the US funded Contra civil war did you? You will not be a poor Venezuelan who will lose his food subsidies or have his children go without education or healthcare if Chavez loses power will you? Your children or grandchildren will not suffer your arrogance, it is easy for you to talk and babble and judge, but you only show your own ignorance, but keep on preaching just don't think for a moment Latin Americans think you are looking out for them, maybe the wealthy Miami Cubans will thank you for your efforts, but the majority who would lose so much if any of you christmas wishes were to come true would suffer and they know better. But you don't seem to care.
You make no sense when you equate Miami to Cuba and I just illustrated that. You can keep saying you are right just because you say so, but upon further analysis, all your arguments are not only flawed, but also factually and historically incorrect and naive.
I wish you luck and I hope you open your mind and you and your family never have to go through what alot of people around the world have had to go through because of American Arrogance and Ignorance. To me and to many other YOU are the ignorant arrogant american who talks because he has a mouth but could never live one day in the world he advocates for others.
Badboy
I think you should be the one who should hang it up, I would tell you to go back to posting about chicas and such, but it seems the only thing you have added on this forum is your politically Naive commentary. Thanks for ignoring Don's comments, I guess he really shut you up, and thanks for ignoring all the facts I posted. I am sure the average monger is smart enough to understand you use this forum to post you very right wing political views and I guess they also understand that you only post because none of what you say will ever affect you and you don't know the first thing about either living in a Socialist society or a Latin American country as anything other than a US citizen with US money, You have never once had to live under US prescribed military dictatorships or US funded Civil wars. These are all facts, and you, with your narrow and ignorant world view can gloss over them. I am glad you keep posting, you only expose your own ignorance.
Keep it up, and I never once in my post compared you to Somoza, so I don't know where you got that from, though it makes sense that you would deflect the main point (which was that the US was ok with that form of capitalism, so much so that they funded and armed and trained his death squads, something that your very own ivory tower grand pa benny never once lived through) instead you bring up a meaningless lie about me comparing you to dictators. I think mongers are smart enough to read for themselves.
The only one on this forum posting PROPAGANDA is you, you say FRAUD? That without facts or historical and validated research is PROPAGANDA, you say DICTATOR, that without historical evidence is PROPAGANDA, you say alot, but you can prove very little. You are the propagandist and I am sure most on this forum see that. You don't give a rats ass about the 60% of poor in Venezuela, you just hate Chavez and his political views and so you attack him and other latin american leaders who are choosing alternative ways to bring their majority out of poverty, something that capitalism has not been able or willing to do for the past 100 years.
I will continue to post on chicks and restaurants and anything else that is really useful on this forum. And you will continue posting your bullshit propaganda, but don't think for one moment I will let you post your lies without deconstructing them. You aren't doing anything with your cheap talk on a sex forum, but your insults won't ever go unchallenged.
Have fun,
Badboy
And just to indulge you a little, we can debate basic math, though you can always try your best to alter reality to suit your argument. So here goes, 60% of 60 is alot more than 60% of 20, ( but here is where you distort the facts , the reality, and basic math to try to fit your own narrow political views ) 60% of anything is always going to be more than 10-20% of anything. And THAT is the point.
And the significance you fail to see is BEFORE Chavez, that 15-20% never once went to the poor, it went to the wealthy, NOW most of those oil revenues are going towards social programs. You are a right wing hack and not a very good one at that. And your grasp on history is even worse. You have never once even attempted to refute any historical facts that I post, you just try to gloss over them by saying " Past US mistakes ". Well guess what ? Not only did those " past " US mistakes cost millions their lives, but there is nothing " past " about them. Iraq anyone ? Afghanistan anyone ? or maybe you don't listen to what is going on in the world ? You are as divorced from reality as your posts are.
Your ideas are as antequated as you are, and all your politically motivated rants aren't affecting change, maybe that is the only reason you feel the need to come onto a sex forum and rant and rave about how much you hate latin american governments and how horrible they are to let you live under their dictatorial regimes. This is the only place you feel like you have a voice , that is sad, and the more I picture an impotent old man typing away all his percieved demons on his keyboard, the more I think just how sad the rest of your life must really be.
Get help man, you need it.
It was awesome meeting you and speaking to you. I learn afew thing from our conversations. Papa, why do you even try to chat with this leafties commie. If all that he say is real. Why don't the cuban's in cuba send e-mail pictures to show how Cuba realy is. Do they have any laptops for there personal use. Take care.
D
It took you a day and a half to come up with that response? Again you get more and more reactionary with ever post, SCREAMING Propaganda won't do any good. I don't think you even know the definition of the word, or the different forms of propaganda or even who the biggest propaganda players are. I won't answer those questions for you, but I am sure for those that are educated enough to understand what propaganda really is, know that you use Jackson's website for it. All you ever post about is how horrible Russia, China, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina are.
I don't post on this sex forum about politics, why? Because this is a fucking sex forum. Granpda be posts to his old plaque filled hearts content about his hate and contempt for latin american leaders, and BTW, there is no propaganda in this statement. He is a sad, sorry old impotent man that NEEDS Jackson's forum to publish his PROPAGANDA on the internet. Everyone here sees it and most don't care. I do, I and many other find his comments not only out of place on this sex forum, but very insulting. And I will say this one last time, don't for one second think, that I will allow your insults to go unchallenged or your lies and propaganda to propagate without deconstructing them. For those blind motherfuckers who think anything but your own form of capitalism is not the answer. I will never try to change those opinions, but for those who do see a different path is available for their countries and their people, I agree.
Badboy.
P. S, just give it up Grandpa, your bullshit is old, I hear this shit all the time, the funny thing is you could never have a real debate because factual historical evidence would drown your pathetic answers. I have seen and heard very good debates from real progressives and real conservatives. And even though they go at each other, they actually speak truthfully and bluntly about their positions and their historical research. You on the other hand scream propaganda, you would get laughed off the podium. Keep it up though. I can allready anticipate your next post. Let me guess, " Propaganda ".
And in regards to your political prisoners on Cuba, read the report, there are 300, why don't you tell us about the political prisoners in the US? Or did you forget the 60's ? Or why don't you tell us about the US harboring Cuban Terrorists, tell us about Posada Carillos ? Would you have the nerve to talk about that ? My guess is you don't know enough about the topic to make an atempt. I love the selective memory loss. And about the USSR, again you never lived there so with every comment you make you only expose your own ignorance regarding the subject. You are a Black and White propagandist. You are a simple-minded individual that either doesn't see or doesn't want to admit that things aren't as simply as the arguments you make. I allready said it, for every 5 Soviets you find that loved the USSR, you will find 5 who didn't. You are stuck in a cold war mind set. Well the future will have to forget that mind set and forget people like you, so I am not worried much, you and people like you are on the way out, Just look at your buddy Rummy? Seems these motherfuckers are losing their jobs left and right. You're done for Gramps. Though I can appreciate your local following.
Techniques of propaganda generation.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ad Hominem: A Latin phrase which has come to mean attacking your opponent.
Appeal to Prejudice: Using loaded or emotive terms to attach value or moral goodness to believing the proposition. "A reasonable person would agree that our income tax is too low."
Black-and-White fallacy: Presenting only two choices, with the product or idea being propagated as the better choice. (Eg. You are either with us or with the evil enemy)
Demonizing the "enemy": Projecting a person or idea as the "enemy" through suggestion or false accusations.
Falsifying information: The creation or deletion of information from public records, in the purpose of making a false record of an event or the actions of a person during a court session, or possibly a battle, etc. Pseudoscience is often used in this way.
Glittering generalities: Glittering generalities are emotionally appealing words applied to a product or idea, but which present no concrete argument or analysis. A famous example is the campaign slogan "Ford has a better idea!"
Unstated assumption: This technique is used when the propaganda concept that the propagandist intends to transmit would seem less credible if explicitly stated. The concept is instead repeatedly assumed or implied.
Stereotyping or Name Calling or Labeling: This technique attempts to arouse prejudices in an audience by labeling the object of the propaganda campaign as something the target audience fears, hates, loathes, or finds undesirable. For instance, reporting on a foreign country or social group may focus on the stereotypical traits that the reader expects, even though they are far from being representative of the whole country or group; such reporting often focuses on the anecdotal.
Oversimplification: Favorable generalities are used to provide simple answers to complex social, political, economic, or military problems.
Intentional vagueness: Generalities are deliberately vague so that the audience may supply its own interpretations. The intention is to move the audience by use of undefined phrases, without analyzing their validity or attempting to determine their reasonableness or application. The intent is to cause people to draw their own interpretations rather than simply being presented with an explicit idea. In trying to "figure out" the propaganda, the audience foregoes judgment of the ideas presented. Their validity, reasonableness and application is not considered.
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Seems like you had all your propaganda bases covered, though you missed the more sofisticated forms, though I think that was more out of ignorance than intent. Keep it up with your oversimplified black and white fallacies. Again in a real academic forum you would get laughed at. Why? Because the real righties, don't believe their own bullshit, it is for public consumption. You on the other hand are that public and therefore know very little about how things really work. You gotta learn the REAL arguments. And believe me, there are valid counters to some of my retorts, just because you don't know them doesn't mean you have to scream propaganda.
Badboy
Population statistics.
In 2000, the number of prisoners under the jurisdiction of the Federal or State adult correctional authorities was 1,381,892 and overall, the United States imprisoned 2,071,686 persons.
In terms of federal prison, 57 % of those incarcerated were sentenced for drug offenses. Currently, considering local jails as well, almost a million of those incarcerated are in prison for non-violent crime.
In 2002 roughly 93.2 % of prisoners were male. About 10.4 % of all black males in the United States between the ages of 25 and 29 were sentenced and in prison by year end, compared to 2.4 % of Hispanic males and 1.2 % of white males.
As of June 30, 2005, about 1 out of every 136 U. S. Residents was incarcerated either in prison or jail. The total amount being 2,186,230, with 1,438,701 in State and Federal prisons and 747,529 in local jails.
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Compared with other countries, the United States has among the highest incarceration rates in the world.
As of 2004, the incarceration rate in prison and jail, in the United States was 724 inmates per 100,000. For the most part, the U. S. Rate is three to eight times that of the Western European nations and Canada. The rate in England and Wales, for example, is 139 persons imprisoned per 100,000 residents while in Norway it is 59 per 100,000. In many countries, it is common for prisoners to be paroled after serving as little as one third of their sentences. In the US, most states strictly limit parole, requiring at serving of at least half of the sentence. For certain heinous crimes, there is no parole and the full sentence must be served. The prison population in China was 111 per 100,000 in 2001 (sentenced prisoners only)
Privatization.
In recent years, there has been much debate over the privatization of prisons. The argument for privatization stresses cost reduction, whereas the arguments against it focus on standards of care, and the question of whether a market economy for prisons might not also lead to a market demand for prisoners (I. E. Tougher sentencing for cheap labor) While privatized prisons have only a short history, there is a long tradition of inmates in state and federal-run prisons undertaking active employment in prison for low pay.
Private companies which provide services to prisons combine in the American Correctional Association, which advocates legislation favorable to the industry.
The United States spends an estimated $60 billion each year on corrections. The population of inmates housed in prisons and jails in the United States exceeds 2 million, with the per capita incarceration population higher than that officialy reported by any other country. Criminal justice policy in the United States has also been criticized for the disproportionate representation of African-Americans and other minorities.
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The US is the last country in the world that has a right to talk about incarcerating it's own population. Call it political, economical, social, racial. It is all the same. The US puts more people in prison for longer periods of time than any other country in the world.
Your personal comments are worthless Gramps, next time at least post some factual data. It will keep things interesting. Comments from a rabid wanabee right wing somewhat senile hack just isn't cutting the mustard.
Badboy
BundaLover
12-09-06, 23:23
You are simplistic and biased. Cuba does not need a large number of prision buildings because the whole island is a prison. Many many nations have no constitutional judicial system so they just shoot the prisoners on orders from the leader. Shall we go down this country list from Africa? How do you compare death to 3 full meals a day with running water and well defined term and no torture?
The tens of millions that Stalin sent to their deaths you seem to not to be able to recall. Isnt it great that you can study the US with all its faults and not get a visit in the middle of the night?
What is this bizzare ranting and raving about PapaB in your last emails?
Wayne Will
12-10-06, 02:40
Badboy,
You are arrogant young man who in all his wisdom still resorts to name calling when discussing political issues. Stop calling him "GrandPa B", you only make your self sound like an asshole! Why must you resort to character assassination when discussing the issue? It must be your lack of maturity. Anyone that feels the constant need to mention his 10 inch dick in all of his posts is obviously trying to impress someone. Certainly not me!
Wayne.
I can't wait for your response.:-(
First of all Wayne,.
If you read GRANDMA be' post she called me and I quote " badpropaganda10 " I didn't hear you mention anything about that, I wonder why? Selective judgement or just plain stupid, which one is it, or maybe you condone her name calling yet you take personal offense to mine, and don't think I have the right to retort? Second of all My posts of my penis size were a few. The truth is Grandma be tends to mention my cock size way more than I do. And now so do you, what is it that threatens you so much? Because the truth is it has been months since I have even written about that. Why do you feel the need to bring up a few comments that I made about a month ago to try to prove a feable point?
Anything else you want to add?
Badboy.
Grandma be is a political dinosaur, and she and you seem to constantly try to bring up my age or youthfulness I don't get it. In my opinion she is the arrogant one and now you add your worthless two cents to defend her.
Canuck9970
12-10-06, 03:19
BadBoy.
In another post you say.
"I know first hand that the dollar is turrning into shit over in Europe, and as a US citizen that has lived and invested in Europe, that does matter to me.
Badboy"
On the other hand you seem to take great delight in finding fault with the United States. Well free speech is cherished in the United States so you can say what you like if you are indeed a citizen. On the other hand in another post you seem to indicate that you are actually a citizen of the former USSR. I see a perfect opportunity for you to stand up for your lofty socialist views. Why not show your solidarity with Castro and Chavez and the boys and mail your U. S. Passport back to GW?
Wayne Will
12-10-06, 03:26
This is my last post to you because your not worth more than two posts.
"GrandMa" is a personal attack on his age and his gender. "badpropaganda10" is a comment on political views. That is the difference! I mentioned your dick size once and you certainly didn't! The way you resort to attacks on a person age or sex shows lack of maturity! The fact that you have to be correct and continue this argument shows your lack of maturity!
Take for example: "Well be my guess defend your lady friend" sounds like something an immature 18 year old would say!
What the fuck are you talking about Canuck? Is that the only reason you come onto ArgentinaPrivate, to try to challenge me? You and your opinions don't even matter, last time I checked you haven't even contributed one single post of anything useful, So go ahead and make me laugh with your retarded comments. As far as you sending me your passport, I don't really think that has anything to do with this conversation, but I will tell you this, the moment Granny be gets the fuck out of Latin America, then I might consider it. And never to GW, he doesn't represent the US and neither do you. Member that.
So anything else you want to contribute to Argentina Private?
Badboy
Benito
On the other hand you seem to take great delight in finding fault with the Argentina. I see a perfect opportunity for you to stand up for your lofty capitalist views. Why not show your solidarity and leave Argentina?BTW I agree with you 100% on that one, good call chanook, really good logic, I agree if he delights in finding fault in Argentina he should stand up for his lofty position and get the fuck out. Works both ways doesn't it?
While I occasionally will discuss politics in this forum, I must this morning observe that you guys who are arguing here have offered precious little in the way of pussy info lately. Yes, politics is interesting, but not to the exclusion of the more appropriate topic.
As Jackson regularly says, "The purpose of this Forum is to provide for the exchange of information between Men on the subject of finding Women for Sex."
I think we can all agree that this board works best when the posters' focus is on ass, instead of politics.
=============================================
Hi Hunt,
Well, I guess we could all talk about something else, like transvetites perhaps?
Thanks,
Jackson
"GrandMa" is a personal attack on his age and his gender. "badpropaganda10" is a comment on political views.
I mentioned your dick size once and you certainly didn't!
The way you resort to attacks on a person age or sex shows lack of maturity! T.
He fact that you have to be correct and continue this argument shows your lack of maturity! Ok now you are a real idiot, first of all Granny be has consistantly attacked me personally and politically, I think you are stupid or blind not to see that. But I will pretend you are just blind. So no harm.
Second, why the fuck would you even talk about my dick? Shouldn't you be discussing this in another type of forum?
Third CAN YOU FUCKING READ? Granny be was the one that mentioned my age on multiple occasions, you might want to read the posts before you start sounding stupid.
And lastly, what does it say about your own level of maturity that you have to come on here and try to attack me when I have not said two words to you?
You're a coward and why don't you try to contribute to the forum before you get involved in something that doesn't concern you.
Badboy
I am actually most welcome here in BA and in the US as well and anywhere else I travel because when I am in a country I accept their hospitality and stay as far away as I can from their internal issues as I can, if I want to change things or even have a voice I must first become a citizen, pay my taxes, buy a home and actually be a contributing part of conventional society and then I have a right to my opinion as a citizen of a sovereign nation. As I am a citizen of the US and a tax payer in good standing that contributes to the US economy I have the right to say whatever the fuck I want about my country, only a fascist like you would want those CITIZENS, that disagree with your war mongering right wing imperialistic view of the US to somehow leave the country, what's next Granny? You gonna open up concentration camps or re education centers for those that choose to study and research a more critical view of history? Again you make no sense and your arguments never hold up to scrutiny. Do yourself a favor and answer my points honestly and introspectively or just shut up. You equate socialism with totalitarian regimes and that is a fallacy another one of you black and white fallacies, maybe only blind right wingers like you understand that. So none of your questions make sense.
And you talk about changing the subject, You say I attack US prisons without answering the points that I make, which are valid by the way. You are the propagandist. Read my last posts, no propaganda in them. Just calling you out for what you are, A liar, a propagandist and someone who uses Jacksons forum for something it is not ment to be used for. You use this to spread your right wing idiological bullshit, you attack latin american countries even though most of the people that come onto this forum live and enjoy these latin countries and their hospitality, You try your best to breed contempt for latin american leadership and insult the majority of actual latin american citizens with your hate rhetoric. Again I agree with Tony Blair on this one, take the country for what it is and assimilate or get the fuck out and spread your hate speech in the US, no one here needs your bullshit. And even if they do, Jackson's sex forum isn't the place for it.
You are getting more and more incoherent every time you speak, as far as you wanting my passport? I still don't get it. Though again if you leave and never return I might consider it. Since you Hate Argentina so much and show so much contempt for it while living inside it's borders maybe you would want to " stand up for your lofty capitalist views and get the fuck out and not return ". If you do that then we can discuss you wanting one of my passports. Til then, you are the one bitching about a country you live in, not me.
Badboy
Benito.
On the other hand you seem to take great delight in finding fault with the Argentina. I see a perfect opportunity for you to stand up for your lofty capitalist views. Why not show your solidarity and leave Argentina?BTW I agree with you 100% on that one, good call chanook, really good logic, I agree if he delights in finding fault in Argentina he should stand up for his lofty position and get the fuck out. And never return.
I am leaving Tuesday. If this means you are never coming back and we don't ever have to hear sorry " drivel " from an antequated half senile political dinasour on our Argentina sex forum ? Is that what you are promising ? Or is this more of your mindless " drivel "?
If this means you are never coming back and we don't ever have to hear sorry " drivel " from an antequated half senile political dinasour on our Argentina sex forum? Is that what you are promising? Or is this more of your mindless " drivel "?It's either that, or a know-it-all left-wing boychik pining for the return of Stalin.
Personally, I choose door number three, discussion about pussy, pussy, and more pussy.
It's either that, or a know-it-all left-wing boychik pining for the return of Stalin.
Personally, I choose door number three, discussion about pussy, pussy, and more pussy.Very good retort, as always. Though the proper term is either malchik or chelovek, and I don't pine for Stalin. Or Truman or any war time leaders that have too much blood on their hands.
I choose door number three as well, just get this yas to stop the political bullshit and I will leave it alone.
Badboy
What the fuck are you talking about? Again you evade the questions? I said and I quote if you leave then I might consider it and I have, and that consideration has led me to the conclusion that if I give you a piece of paper, how will that stop your sorry ass from returning like a dog with it's tail between its legs? The point is to not have to hear your stupid political bullshit on Jackson's sex forum. That is the point. And again, if you hate this country get the fuck out, stop clinging to Chanooks ideas about me giving him a passport so he can sell it on the black market or something. You make no sense, I am and always will be a US citizen whether your old senile ass likes it or not. But if me giving you that piece of paper will rid us of your political bullshit and senile stupidity then I am all ears, make me an offer and I will consider it.
Badboy ( plahoy malchik )
Posted in the BA Harald.
'Accept UK values or stay away'
Blair said the government would take a series of measures to encourage immigrants and minorities to mix with mainstream British society.
Migration had been good for Britain and London's hospitality to many nationalities had made it perhaps the most popular capital city in the world, Blair said.
"But we protect this attitude by defending it. Our tolerance is part of what makes Britain Britain. So conform to it; or don't come here. We don't want the hatemongers, whatever their race, religion or creed," he told an audience that included academics, students and Muslim leaders.
Immigrants wishing to live in Britain will have to pass an English test and ethnic or religious groups seeking government grants will have to show they promote integration, Blair said.
There was no question of Britain allowing the introduction of religious law, he said, while adding, "We must demand allegiance to the rule of law." To combat forced marriages, the government will consult on raising the age for people entering Britain to get married above the current minimum of 18, he said.
"We should continue celebrating" multicultural Britain, in which different communities live side by side, he said. "But we need — in the face of the challenge to our values — to reassert also the duty to integrate." he said. (Reuters)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well said Blair, conform or get the fuck out, no hate mongers or subversives, Maybe since granny likes the BA Harold so much when it serves her purpose she might listen to this article and take a hint.
Badboy
Badboy, you are starting to get to get attention, you are a LEFTIST, SOCAILIST, IGNORANT COMMUNIST. PERIOD.
So what else do you have to say for yourself, it seems to me your are a frustrated young man if indeed you are the age you say you are.
Let it go, Argentina is headed for Complete socialisim, and that is ok as long as I can keep fucking sluts for 40, 50 dls. US.
Yea US dollars, man, because that is what it is all about.
Like you there are alot of ignorant people who do not know what the USA is all about, but take it from me it is the best living in the world.
Interesting. Because you (and anyone else) disagree with Geo Eye you are ignorant. I did not realize that Geo Eye was the world evaluator of ignorance.
I learn something new every day.
Suerte.
Stowe
LEFTIST, SOCAILIST, IGNORANT COMMUNIST. PERIOD.
A frustrated young man if indeed you are the age you say you are.
Let it go, Argentina is headed for Complete socialisim, and that is ok.
As long as I can keep fucking sluts for 40,50 dls. US.
Yea US dollars, man, because that is what it is all about.
Like you there are alot of ignorant people who do not know what the.
USA is all about, but take it from me it is the best living in the World.So what does that make you?
A RIGHTIST CAPITALIST PIG BLIND FALSE IMPERIALIST PAPER TIGER?
Or maybe an OLD FRUSTRATED MAN who feels the need to come onto this thread and attack me for no reason other than the fact that you can't write about pussy so you come onto AP and your only contribution is to attack Badboy, well Bravo.
And what the fuck is that you are babbling about? Yes USA living is good, I should know I spend a third of my time their what the fuck is your point? I have learned that Argentina living is just as good? And European living is also just as good except with even better looking women just as long as you have the euros to live it. So what the fuck is your point in this meaningless rant?
Life is good AND?
Get a life you silly yokol, I for one don't give a rats ass about your silly opinions, and I am sure whoever you attack will say the same thing.
Argentina is a sovereign country last time I checked and it is up to their electorate to decide what will happen to their country. I for one am here as a guest and not a diplomat or a political commentator or an economic advisor so I will withhold my judgements and worthelss opinons and enjoy their hospitality, good food, and women. Which is what I suggest you do and while you are at it contribute to the fucking forum. Write some reviews and maybe then I will give a rats ass about anything that escapes your yap.
Badboy
Subservient to any and all totalitarian leaders. We are not going to be able to change you. I give up on you! Long live Cuba, Red China, Chavez, etc. Yeah, right!Choke on it Granny B, I don't really care what you think, you are a silly little propagandist, if you read my quotes I have not said anything false, maybe unapealing to you but all truth that you can't dispute so you have to counter, never dispute right? Only counter, good strategy learn to debate without blowing your top and screaming propaganda, you continue with this lame moniker and that is your right, you want to continue to be a disrespectufl fuck then get out of this country and go back to where your views are respected. I don't even pretend to debate your silly ass. You are a coward that screams propaganda when someone brings up facts your slow dim witted mind never knew. So don't worry I am with you pal. Long live Capitalist Iraq, Videla's Argentina, long live Somoza's Nicaragua, Pinochet's capitalist wonderland Chile, Bautistas Cuba, Trumans USA or how about the Shah's Iran? All high points in the capitalist past I would say. Pick up a history book you silly old man and then talk to me.
You define the term " ignorance is bliss ", too bad it's only made your ass bitter.
Badboy
Ha ha Bbadboy, I am getting under your skin, just the way I wanted .
You are truely a small frustrated child, you [Deleted by Admin], and I know you do give a rat's ass about it, because of your messages.
You must have been the child at school who had his lunch taken away from him in school. I'll bet you are a MAMA'S BOY.
And talk about frustrated, I see now you are the guy with the [Deleted by Admin].
Please hope I do not meet you at the ALAMO.
EDITOR'S NOTE: This report was edited in accordance with the Forum's Zero Tolerance policy regarding reports containing any personal attacks or derogatory comments directed towards another Forum Member or the Forum Membership in general.
Poor Geo,
It is obvious I am playing with you, Just look at your reactionary ass, just like a feable little mouse, but I guess mice are pretty fierce when backed into a corner. I don't get the ramblings about the lunch box or your spending too much time with your mother. Just doesn't really make much sense.
I fear you are off your Lexapro and if you are still on it I would suggest talking to your psychiatrist and having him up the dose. Please, I think you are getting retarded. But it's quite entertaining watching you break down. I can almost picture your brain melting.
And BTW, you can meet me anytime, in fact let me know where you are at and I will be more than happy. But I fear the Alamo won't be the correct place since I only go their for breakfast.
Get help with those passive agressive rants, they will only serve to make you look rediculous and low rent.
Badboy
EDITOR'S NOTE: This report was deleted because the content of the report could potentially incite a flame war. Please read the Forum FAQ and the Forum's Posting Guidelines for more information. Thank You!
Buenos Aires, Dec. 11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Argentinean exports to Venezuela increased by 56 percent compared to 2005, representing 529 million dollars during the first nine months of 2006.
The automobile industry played and important role, noted the specialized consultant Abeceb. Com.
Caracas is the third destiny of Argentinean passenger transportation shipment and fourth in commercial and family automobiles, emphasized the firm according to a version from Clarin newspaper.
Abeceb.com also reported over 1119 local enterprises that made transactions in Venezuela in this year.
According to El Clarin, Caracas incorporation to MERCOSUR, a trading bloc integrated by Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, as full member in July contributed to strengthen the two countries links.
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Badboy
BundaLover
12-13-06, 13:43
If you are going to delete / edit some posts due to the flame war policy then much of Badboys ranting should be deleted too. The young and foolish agitator likes to mix facts with highly biased opinions and present them as 'proof' of his ignorant socialistic viewpoint. He can't resist personal attacks on any who dissagree. Lots of entertainement value and he's smart but he goes over the line too much.
So Mongers, Ah Men this: He can't resist posting that oil rich Ven. Is buying AR cars in increasing numbers (I wonder if these AR cars any more reliable than the Yugos from his beloved USSR? Of course this pales in significance to the former AR Central Bank Chairman's warning about Ks inflation mánipulations and the degrading affect on vital ag. Sector. But well, that is how a propagandist operates.Actually Porpagandists usually change the subject, which is what you are doing, I don't think anyone was talking about the cars made in the Soviet Union. As far as you calling my post propaganda, you are just lying, why? Because I just stated a fact and in no way equated it to what you posted, you are making that feeble equation. Do I think that it is important for the AR economy to have strong trade ties with its immediate neighbors? Yes I do. And it seems things are working out well for them. Thats it. You want to personally try to attack me again? I am done with you, you're just not on my level.
Badboy
I guess I shouldn't be surprised I have geriatric old senile men, sitting around talking about my cock. Pretty strange, but with all the psychosis floating around on this forum I guess it was inevitable
Just read your post Bunda, and I would have to say first of all I have never once responded to someone without them first attacking me. You see, just like you here, I haven't said two words to you, but you feel the need to personally attack me calling me young and foolish, isn't it my right now to call you old and senile? I think Jackson sees that. YES I have views that alot of the senior mongers on this website don't share and I am repeatedly attacked for it. About the only person I have truly gone at it with lately is Granny B, she wants to change my handle and attack my character and even say I make up facts to " prove my ignorant socialist viewpoint ". I think anyone looking onto this thread at this point in time can see you are trying to not only personaly insult me but are trying to start a flame war. I have been accused of just about everything in the book on this forum and alot of it has been under the guise of telling me how young and ignorant I am. Just like your latest post. You have the nerve to talk about flame war policy and then go on to call me " young and foolish ". And then say " ignorant socialist viewpoint ". Very non personal, very non ignorant, and you are certainly not looking for a response from me, are you?
I will always challange people who feel the need to disrespect Latin American countries their electorate, and their leaders. These aren't personal attacks, I am always amazed at how many people take time out of their day to come onto a thread and not say one word about the actual topic at hand and just start personaly attacking me. That is precisely what Gia did. And it seems you have done the same, although I will add it has been in a much more sedated and cordial manner, even though you also resorted to personal attacks. I won't respond to you because if it is one thing I have learned, most of the people on this forum don't know two cents about actual debate, meaning in an actual debate, you debate facts, if you think someone is lying, it is not enough to call them a liar, you need to reference said lie and prove it. You need to make the other motherfucker studder, you need to make the other person pause, the point is to make each other think, very few people have made me do that. They resort to the usual, calling me young, ignorant, socialist immature and so on. I have heard it all before and at this point I am understanding that other than a few exceptions, most people on this forum aren't the type of person I can or want to argue with, I say argue, because that is closer to reality, very little factual debate actually goes on in this forum.
Argentina is a sovereign country last time I checked and it is up to their electorate to decide what will happen to their country. I for one am here as a guest and not a diplomat or a political commentator or an economic advisor so I will withhold my judgements and worthelss opinons and enjoy their hospitality, good food, and women. Which is what I suggest you do and while you are at it contribute to the fucking forum.
Badboy
When do you guys think the slide will end?
Tax receipts +38% in a year. Tourism +24% in June vs last June.To bad government spending is out of control, with more to come in the next 3 months
Hey I just read in the Clarin this morning that some Venezuelan dude was caught trying to bring in over 800,000 Dollars cash into Argentina in his briefcase without declaring it, and he got caught. I am wondering why he didn't just slip the customs agent a kool stack of C-notes.
Nice try though dumb motherfucker.
Bad
Bad, it appears the money is / was, so they say in las calles, for Cristina's political campaign. The idiot thought he had political protection and he didn't declare the 800 grand. However, all he has to do is pay a fine for not declaring the money and he will get it all back.
Bad, it appears the money is / was, so they say in las calles, for Cristina's political campaign. The idiot thought he had political protection and he didn't declare the 800 grand. However, all he has to do is pay a fine for not declaring the money and he will get it all back.It seems a pretty lame rumour: If the official candidate had to bring USD 800K in cash, she could easily do so though "diplomatic courrier". Or better: A Chavez assistant would have handed the briefcase to a Kirchner assistant.
Andres
It seems a pretty lame rumour: If the official candidate had to bring USD 800K in cash, she could easily do so though "diplomatic courrier". Or better: A Chavez assistant would have handed the briefcase to a Kirchner assistant.
AndresIts worse than that Andres,
It gives the impression an outside government or individual is financing the Argentine presidentual election.
If Christina has a brain in her head she'll denie any knowledge of the money.
Exon
Judge opts out of money case.
The case involving a Venezuelan businessman found carrying a suitcase filled with nearly 800,000 dollars on a flight chartered by the Argentine government found itself without a judge yesterday, while the main suspect is in Argentina, according to a local daily.
Marta Novati the judge assigned to the case declared herself "non-competent," meaning she felt she could no longer be considered impartial. Novati received heavy criticism from the head of Customs, Ricardo Echegaray, on Thursday who accused her of not doing enough within her power to apprehend the alleged smuggler.
Echegaray claimed in a statement that Novati was already aware of the incident before it became public, but refrained from ordering the arrest of the Venezuelan. As a result, sources close to the judge revealed, she felt that "after aspersions had been cast on her by a public servant, she should step aside so as to not hinder the investigation."
As for the businessman himself, Guido Antonini Wilson, La Nación newspaper quoted him as saying he is eager to explain what happened. A correspondent for La Nación in Florida went to the gated Miami condominium complex where Antonini Wilson is registered as owning a home and spoke to him from the guardhouse via telephone.
"I'm very interested in this, in explaining all of this," Antonini Wilson was quoted as telling the paper, adding he was speaking via a cell phone from Argentina. It was also believed he was either in Miami or Uruguay. In Venezuela the government denied any links to the businessman.
Finance Minister Rodrígo Cabezas insisted the government "has nothing to hide." A Venezuelan legislator, meanwhile, called for the dismissal of the three executives of the state-owned PDVSA oil company also on board the private jet.
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The poor guy was probably just intent on treating himself and his buddies to a good time at Black.:)
Well this businessman isn't just Venezuelan, as you stated he lives in Miami Florida and is an AMERICAN as in a US citizen, With a surname like Wilson, how could anyone pin him as just a Venezuelan.
And by the way, this isn't a case of smuggling, this is a simple case of not declaring the correct amount of funds at customs. There was no reason to place him under arrest since this infraction only carries a financial penalty.
This is getting blown way out of proportion for political purposes and has therefore become irrelevant.
Bad
Well this businessman isn't just Venezuelan, as you stated he lives in Miami Florida and is an AMERICAN as in a US citizen, With a surname like Wilson, how could anyone pin him as just a Venezuelan.
And by the way, this isn't a case of smuggling, this is a simple case of not declaring the correct amount of funds at customs. There was no reason to place him under arrest since this infraction only carries a financial penalty.
This is getting blown way out of proportion for political purposes and has therefore become irrelevant.
BadA special chartered Jet flight, paid for by the Argentine Government. With three Venezuelan Oil executives and an unknown American with $800,000 US Dollars in cash on board he fails to disclose. And the Argentine Federal Judge assigned to the case recuse's herself and you see nothing wrong.
Try driving down any road in America get pulled over and let the law enforcement officer find $800,000 in cash in your car and see what happends, Your going to jail. The Fed's would be all over you and they wouldn't quit until they had a Federal "Rap" on you that would put you in "Club Fed" for quite sometime.
Exon
Again Exon, you miss the simple point. The Argentine law enforcement has already come out and said bringing X amount of dollars into Argentina is NOT a crime, the crime was not declaring it, and the penalty for said crime is just a fine.
Get off the high horse guys how many Saudi Arabian princes fly into the US with suitcases full of money? Nothing new, nothing to see here, Again the fact that we keep trying to pin this on Kirchner somehow shows where this is going. Politically motivaded persecution. The one thing that is reassuring is the local population actually seems to be less hysterical than you guys.
How many heads rolled when plane loads of Saudi Arabian royalty were flown out of the US bypassing customs all together after 911? Business as usual, this will blow over very quickly and as usual there is no direct connection with the higher ups, just a bunch of conjecture and innuendo. But do continue. Quite amusing.
Bad
Again Exon, you miss the simple point. The Argentine law enforcement has already come out and said bringing X amount of dollars into Argentina is NOT a crime, the crime was not declaring it, and the penalty for said crime is just a fine.
Get off the high horse guys how many Saudi Arabian princes fly into the US with suitcases full of money? Nothing new, nothing to see here, Again the fact that we keep trying to pin this on Kirchner somehow shows where this is going. Politically motivaded persecution. The one thing that is reassuring is the local population actually seems to be less hysterical than you guys.
How many heads rolled when plane loads of Saudi Arabian royalty were flown out of the US bypassing customs all together after 911? Business as usual, this will blow over very quickly and as usual there is no direct connection with the higher ups, just a bunch of conjecture and innuendo. But do continue. Quite amusing.
BadBad,
No Saudi Arabian's bring money into this country for any purpose's, they wire transfer it in if need be.
Moreover there's no customs leaving any country, they don't care what you take out, only what you bring in. There's only Immagration when leaving any country.
Finally you have no conception of the gravity of this matter. Yes its probably only a fine to start with but it leads to a mulitude of questions that people go to jail for if someone takes the time to dig for the answers. A prime example of what I'm talking about is the Argentine Federal Judge that recused herself, read below.
"Echegaray claimed in a statement that Novati was already aware of the incident before it became public, but refrained from ordering the arrest of the Venezuelan. As a result, sources close to the judge revealed, she felt that "after aspersions had been cast on her by a public servant, she should step aside so as to not hinder the investigation"
This Woman, a Federal Judge, had insider knowledge of what was going on. She wanted no part of this case to protect herself and her family and thats why she bowed out.
Exon
Thomaso276
08-12-07, 17:11
It won't take long for the Feds (USA) to look into Wilson. Although the flight started in Caracas he is a US citizen and was in possesion of the cash. Think there will be questions about his overseas accounts (which you must declare) How he got the money? Does the fact the he was in possesion mean he must declare it somewhere in his return and the source? If not he will have to say it belonged to someone else - who will he name?
Some talking points for our USA tax / attorney experts?
Bad,
Moreover there's no customs leaving any country, they don't care what you take out, only what you bring in. There's only Immagration when leaving any country.
ExonWrong!
There are many countries that will not allow anyone to export cash in excess of a certain amount.
First one being USA.
If I remember correctly the max limit is $10.000 usd.
El Greco
First of all, you are probably right, corruption should be done the american way, a quick wire transfer to a numbered swiss bank account. Though I am sure many suitcases of cash still come in AND out all the time.
Second of all MANY countries do have tight restrictions on taking money out of the country. Take Ukraine for instance, you have to declare anything over 3000 dollars. It is called tax evasion if you don't declare it and as a citizen, good luck taking more than that out. Bottom line is, they don't care what you take out of a country UNLESS it is a lot of undeclared black money or priceless antiquities, drugs and so on. Coming from Eastern Europe, where there is a long list of things you CAN'T take OUT of a country, I find your statement laughable. I am sure all those drug smugglers will be happy to know that.
Again interesting banter, I still find the hysteria over money laundering and or POSSIBLE corruption pretty hypocritical coming from those who taught the world about political and corporate corruption. BTW I have a very good concept of the gravity of this and that is why I am laughing at your fake ass concern. It's 800,000 dollars, you probably couldn't even bribe a supreme court judge for that.
I still think this will blow over pretty quickly, just like all the US scandals in the last 6 years, which dwarf this by comparison, Kirchner is safe. If anything as Thomaso stated the IRS might have questions for the American implicated, but other than that, it is just something to fill your dumbed up news hour with.
Keep up the good work.
Bad
NY Times article on the incident.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/14/world/americas/14argentina.html?ei=5090&en=59e30e08eba0ba9f&ex=1344744000&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1187092930-OFfzU6nOYtFpTlBdWmpmwg
One of the funny but sad sentences is: 'In a news conference late last week, María Luz Rivas Diez, the Argentine attorney general, said Mr. Antonini Wilson had made 12 trips to Argentina in the past year, some for less than a day.'At minimum, a money laundering operation, and probably with a nice "commission" doled out to the Argie fellows in the know.
BundaLover
08-15-07, 16:27
Try driving down any road in America get pulled over and let the law enforcement officer find $800,000 in cash in your car and see what happends, Your going to jail. The Fed's would be all over you and they wouldn't quit until they had a Federal "Rap" on you that would put you in "Club Fed" for quite sometime.
ExonExon this is patently absurd and you KNOW it. You are telling a board full of Americans nonsense about American law. Why?
Exon this is patently absurd and you KNOW it. You are telling a board full of Americans nonsense about American law. Why?Because its the truth, thats why I'm telling it.
One or more Federal Government agencys would be all over it. Possibly Treasury or maybe DEA, but most likely it would be the Criminal Division of the IRS. Not the local county Sheriff or a traffic Cop, the Fed's don't Fuck around.
They'd trace every cent of that money, where it came from and where it was going. They'd go threw your bank accounts using their computers and know every transaction you've ever made no matter what country it was made in or going too. They would find the exact source of the cash and then they'ed prosecute the shit out of you until you rolled on the next guy and then you'd go to jail, after you rolled.
At the very least they'd hang a Income Tax charge on you and you still go to jail for not giving the Fed's their share of what ever scam you were involved in.
Exon
This absolute bullshit about it being illegal to have cash shows how unwordly some people on this forum are. It is not illegal to have cash. Period.
I am reminded when I see such ill-informed nonsense of an incidence when I was a younger man. In partnership with another 2nd hand dealer, we sold some stock at an auction and were paid out by the auction house immediately after the sale. It being late at night, we were dividing the money up inside my car, outside the local police station, the advantage being good light and good security. We were arrested by an officious young policeman and taken inside the station, where he proudly announced to the duty sargeant, that he had arrested us for having a large sum of money in cash. The sargeant looked bemused, told him to give us back the money and apologized to us and told us we were free to go. As we left, we could hear him telling the young officer, that possession of cash was not illegal, and that it was highly unlikely that we would be divving up money outside a police station if it was stolen. He did not ask us a single question.
So for those who didn't know, money does happen to be legal, whether it is $80 or $800,000. The offence was in not declaring it on entry to Argentina, something you do not have to do in your own country.
Exon's just acting like a fruit, next thing he will tell us he does this " shit " for a living or that the hooker is just his "good" friend. Give it up Exon and just admit you are wrong, WORST case scenario they confiscate it and tell you you can pick it up once you show just cause for having the cash.
That's all. No big deal, show's over. And BTW the scandal fizzled.
Bad
Argento & BadBoy your both full of Shit.
Course its not illegal to have cash, by law it has to be taken in a transaction. Matter of fact its written on our money, "Good for all debts, Public & Private"
In the case mentioned by Argento, he had a very legimate reason for having a large amount of money, (though I dought it was $800,000) and the Police eventually excepted the reason which could have been verified had they taken the time to do so.
But here's two cases I know of personally. Both guys had spotless criminal records, nothing more than minor traffic violations.
First case, the guy, a "Bagman" was driving up I-5 in Northern California. He's pulled over by the highway patrol and they find $750,000 in cash in his car. He couldn't explain where it came from and he got 10 years in a Federal slammer.
The second case, a Drug Dealer, again with a spotless record. He was never with in a mile of his Drugs. Always paid someone else to do his dirty work. Was driving down I-10 not all that far from the Mexican border. He's pulled over and they find $45,000 in cash in his car. He got 3 1/2 years with the Fed's.
In both cases they "Rolled" for lighter sentences by the way.
So heres what we're arguing about.
Its OK to have as much money in cash as you can carry what ever the amount. But You'd better have a "God Damned" good reason the Fed's are going to buy before they let you walk. They love investagating shit like this because its so easy to check and find out where the money came from if the transaction is legal.
Thomaso276 said it best.
It won't take long for the Feds (USA) to look into Wilson. Although the flight started in Caracas he is a US citizen and was in possesion of the cash. Think there will be questions about his overseas accounts (which you must declare) How he got the money? Does the fact the he was in possesion mean he must declare it somewhere in his return and the source? If not he will have to say it belonged to someone else - who will he name?
Some talking points for our USA tax / attorney experts?
They'll look into Wilson big time, on their own, without talking to the Argentines, just because he owns property in the USA. The deal stinks, the Feds know it and they'll stop at nothing to find out where "The bodies are buried"
Exon
Rock Harders
08-15-07, 22:07
Mongers-
I have got to agree with Exon here, possession of an inordinate amount of cash is not a crime of in itself, however, it IS probable cause for a law enforcement official to move forward with further investigation. In the United States today there is simply no legitimate reason to be carrying that kind of cash (six figures) as the banking system is so secure and every merchant (with few exceptions) accepts credit and debit cards. The only people carrying that sort of cash are 9 times out of 10 likely to be drug dealers, mobsters, or someone planning serious tax evasion. The United States today is just not a cash economy much anymore, its an electronic transfer / payment economy. At the very least being caught with six figures in cash would get the IRS on your ass to verify that you reported the amount as income.
In Latin America, however, and especially Argentina, this is a completely different story as Cash Is King, electronic payments / transfers are unreliable and fee-ridden, the banks are thieves, and everybody has got to have a serious stash of dollar cash in a safe at home in order to ride out any potential rough times. Even the AFIP people enforcing the tax / monetary laws have to maintain a cash reserve as they can't even trust the very system they operate.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
Exon, All you are doing is talking out of your ass, PERIOD. Or let me guess, you do this " shit " for a living also. Don't you have a new hooker to pimp on AP?
I will say this again, having large amounts of cash on hand is not a criminal offense. In each case you mentioned, for someone to get 10 years in federal pen they would have had to have done alot more than have money that they couldn't account for.
And all you did was repeat what I said, WORST case scenario, they confiscate the money and tell you you can pick it up once you provide just cause for having the money. That's it. If you get harassed by some crooked ass police, just call your lawyer. End of story.
And as Dirk just very perceptively stated, In Latin America, Cash Is King, Wilson was coming down to buy property, buy a business, and so on. Who knows who cares. This is old news.
Bad.
Argento & BadBoy your both full of Shit.
But heres two cases I know of personally. Both guys had spotless criminal records, nothing more than minor traffic violations.
First case, the guy, a "Bagman" was driving up I-5 in Northern California. He's pulled over by the highway patrol and they find $750,000 in cash in his car. He couldn't explain where it came from and he got 10 years in a Federal slammer.
The second case, a Drug Dealer, again with a spotless record. He was never with in a mile of his Drugs. Always paid someone else to do his dirty work. Was driving down I-10 not all that far from the Mexican border. He's pulled over and they find $45,000 in cash in his car. He got 3 1/2 years with the Fed's.
Its OK to have as much money in cash as you can carry what ever the amount. But You'd better have a "God Damned" good reason the Fed's are going to buy before they let you walk.
Thomaso276 said it best.
The deal stinks, the Feds know it and they'll stop at nothing to find out where "The bodies are buried"
Exon
And as Dirk just very perceptively stated, In Latin America, Cash Is King, Wilson was coming down to buy property, buy a business, and so on.Bad,
For an intelligent, articulate fellow (and with whom I usually agree on most geopolitical questions) I am surprised at this comment. I expect you have read what has been written about this affair. If Wilson was coming to Argentina to buy a property or business I'll eat your hat (assuming you don a chapeau from time to time) And, if he was doing one or the other it was only to wash money. Now, I am not taking aim at Venezuela politics, Argentina politics or politics in South America in general. Anybody who doesn't live in a bubble of denial knows the USA is home to oodles of corruption and fraud just like their southern neighbors. But in your rush to avoid finding fault with Chavez, Kirchner et al, you are missing the boat on this one. Those folks were up to bad business, no doubt about it. If it was not money laundering, it was a contribution to a slush fund (probably both) Hey brother, don't let your ire with the knee jerk USA defenders cloud your judgement!
Saludos-Dogg
Dogg,
Do you honestly think that I for one minute believe he was actually coming to Argentina to buy property? I am just giving one of a million reasons he could give for having the money. The point isn't that he came to buy something legitimate, the point is I can't prove otherwise.
Bad.
About the political angle, I don't really see it, I actually brought this topic up here on AP, because I thought it was funny some guy would have the balls and the stupidity to walk into a country holding a briefcase containing $800,000 dollars in manicured bills, only declare $60,000 and not expect to get searched for more.
Corruption will happen no matter who is in office, in any country, nothing gets done without greasing the wheels. That is why I didn't make it a political talking point, because, simply stated, the political angle is irrelevant, looks at the corruption during Menem's term, or Andres Perez' term, Bush's term. It doeasn't matter the country or the political party in control, you can't babysit everyone.
It doeasn't matter the country or the political party in control, you can't babysit everyone.Ok then, however, we get to MY agenda.;) Babysitters, definitely not. Too many fucking babysitters as it is. And as we all know, too many of them can be bought and / or compromised as well. No, I want crooked assholes like this guy and his greasy slimeball buddies prosecuted to the fullest extent of any law that applies. These people are nothing but a pack of monied, entitled sociopaths, who are infrequently prosecuted, and, if prosecuted, infrequently convicted. And, if convicted, yes, they usually get babysitters.;)
BadBoy you don't have a clue,
Suppose your right and the Arges just "White Wash" it over and its business as usual.
That isn't going to happen with the Fed's in this country. By the time their threw investagating Wilson they'll know the name of his first grade trachers dog. They'll have gone threw every bank account hes ever had and found the sorce of funds he's deposited.
This will lead to questions Wilson can't answer since $800,000 is just to big a number. Its got to lead to some form of corruption, one way or another both Wilson and someone else is in trouble.
Exon
My money's on business as usual. But you can keep dreaming,
Bad
BundaLover
08-16-07, 02:30
Argento & BadBoy your both full of Shit.
First case, the guy, a "Bagman" was driving up I-5 in Northern California. He's pulled over by the highway patrol and they find $750,000 in cash in his car. He couldn't explain where it came from and he got 10 years in a Federal slammer.
ExonThe leap of faith has taken place.
A) Pulled over by CHP.
B) Some undisclosed magic hand is applied and a federal agency prosecutes and has a US federal court proceeding and.
C) Federal prision.
Nothing missing from this story EXCEPT that 99% of the middle. Anybody smell bullshit?
BundaLover
08-16-07, 02:35
Argento & BadBoy your both full of Shit.
The second case, a Drug Dealer, again with a spotless record. He was never with in a mile of his Drugs. Always paid someone else to do his dirty work. Was driving down I-10 not all that far from the Mexican border. He's pulled over and they find $45,000 in cash in his car. He got 3 1/2 years with the Fed's.
ExonAlmost beyond logical examination with this one. The virgin drug dealer set-up scam again Exon? Gosh I wonder if the Feds (DEA? Had mister experienced / virgin drug dealer under observation?
Do you think the prision term had anything to do with the DRUG dealing or just the X cash in the car?
BundaLover
08-16-07, 02:37
800k cash US? Who gives a fuck when the take on construction contracts and consessions in Argentina funds millions and millions of payola to Menem's 32 cousins and kids and son in law.
BundaLover.
You'll never know that $800,000 dollars in cash really is.
I do.
Exon
There seems to be a basic mis-understanding of the law in regard to the rights of people. The facts are as follows.
If the police believe an offence has been committed, they can arrest the person suspected, seize the evidence, prosecute and then after they obtain a conviction, the evidence, (in this case the money) will be returned to it's rightful owner or confiscated if it is the proceedings of a crime. No proof and no conviction, it all gets handed back with apologies and penalties for wrongfull prosecution.
The onus of proof is on the prosecuting authority.
The suspect has the right to silence and only needs to provide sufficient information at a trial to refute the accusations.
There is a huge jump from driving down the highway with a trunkfull of money, to a plea bargaining deal with prosecutors. As someone remarked, there appears to be a lot missing in the middle.
Some of the guys on this forum appear very unworldly if they think there is no reason for people to have a lot of cash on hand. Many people have lots of cash and it's their choice to do so. The best reasons of course are availability and privacy. When I last looked at the statutes, neither of these were a crime.
BundaLover.
You'll never know that $800,000 dollars in cash really is.
I do. Exon If that where really true, you would be laughing right along side me at the pittance you are talking about, BAE is being investigated for corruption and bribery charges in connection with tens of BILLIONS it funneled to many Saudi princes. Now that is bribery and corruption charges worth talking about. And what happened with the official British investigation?
On 1 December The Daily Telegraph ran a front page headline suggesting that Saudi Arabia had given the UK ten days to suspend the Serious Fraud Office investigation into BAE / Saudi Arabian transactions or they would take the deal to France "
On 14 December 2006, the Attorney General Lord Goldsmith announced that the investigation was being discontinued. The 15-strong team had been ordered to turn in their files two days before. The statement in the House of Lords read:
The Director of the Serious Fraud Office has decided to discontinue the investigation into the affairs of BAE Systems plc as far as they relate to the Al Yamamah defence contract. This decision has been taken following representations that have been made both to the Attorney General and the Director concerning the need to safeguard national and international security. It has been necessary to balance the need to maintain the rule of law against the wider public interest. "
" On 26 June 2007 BAE announced that the United States Department of Justice had launched its own investigation into Al Yamamah. It specifically was looking into allegations that a US bank had been used to funnel payments to Prince Bandar. " ENDIt seems the british government had a very lucrative oil for guns and euro typhoons contract that was negociated under the table with the Saudis and they were paying bribes in order to recieve those contracts. Oh and BTW, US banks were facilitating all the illegal international wire tranfers. So what else is new? BUSINESS AS USUAL.
And you're getting all hyped up about $800,000? This is a JOKE right? Something to post about when you aren't telling everyone you do this or that " shit " for a living, bragging about seeing 800K in cash, or pimping a new con artist hooker on us that you swear is really your " friend ". Like I said, you couldn't even bribe a supreme court judge for that. So stop bragging about seeing 800,000 in cash, If at your age, that is something to brag about, you must have done something wrong.
Bad
However, if just about anybody in the US comes into contact with the authorities carrying that much money, you can be 100% certain that he will be investigated immediately - the DEA, IRS, and FBI will all take turns inspecting the sphincter of anybody caught carrying this much money.
There are very few legitimate reasons for someone to carry that much cash around, either internationally or domestically. There are many more illegitimate reasons, beginning with drug money and ending with buying politicians, which seems to be the case with the Venezuelans buying the Argentinan leadership.
My only question is to wonder why this customs agent didn't just mysteriously disappear before news of his discovery leaked out. The Argentine secret police is getting sloppy. Probably need to import more advisors from Caracas and Havana, where they know how to handle little embarassments like this. Venezulean and Cuban reinforcements for K's thugs are doubtless being dispatched even as we discuss this.
On 1 December The Daily Telegraph ran a front page headline suggesting that Saudi Arabia had given the UK ten days to suspend the Serious Fraud Office investigation into BAE / Saudi Arabian transactions or they would take the deal to France "
On 14 December 2006, the Attorney General Lord Goldsmith announced that the investigation was being discontinued. The 15-strong team had been ordered to turn in their files two days before. The statement in the House of Lords read:
" The Director of the Serious Fraud Office has decided to discontinue the investigation into the affairs of BAE Systems plc as far as they relate to the Al Yamamah defence contract. This decision has been taken following representations that have been made both to the Attorney General and the Director concerning the need to safeguard national and international security. It has been necessary to balance the need to maintain the rule of law against the wider public interest. "
" On 26 June 2007 BAE announced that the United States Department of Justice had launched its own investigation into Al Yamamah. It specifically was looking into allegations that a US bank had been used to funnel payments to Prince Bandar. "
" In a newspaper interview, Robert Wardle, head of the Serious Fraud Office, acknowledged that the decision to terminate the investigation may have damaged "the reputation of the UK as a place which is determined to stamp out corruption. "I guess it is much easier to think that the only unjustifiably corrupt ones are those you disagree with politically. But generally your at home politics are just as dirty if not much more so. The only difference is, as illustrated here, US and UK politicians know better than to seriously investigate their own politicians and corporations. Why? because as it is stated here, it is against the national interest to aire out their own political and corporate dirty laundry to the world and what's more, they don't REALLy want to know what is going on behind closed doors. No need to disappear anyone, just make them believe they are doing the nation good by lying to it so others ( national corporations and their government lackeys ) can profit.
Bad
However, if just about anybody in the US comes into contact with the authorities carrying that much money, you can be 100% certain that he will be investigated immediately - the DEA, IRS, and FBI will all take turns inspecting the sphincter of anybody caught carrying this much money.
There are very few legitimate reasons for someone to carry that much cash around, either internationally or domestically. There are many more illegitimate reasons, beginning with drug money and ending with buying politicians, which seems to be the case with the Venezuelans buying the Argentinan leadership.
My only question is to wonder why this customs agent didn't just mysteriously disappear before news of his discovery leaked out. The Argentine secret police is getting sloppy. Probably need to import more advisors from Caracas and Havana, where they know how to handle little embarassments like this. Venezulean and Cuban reinforcements for K's thugs are doubtless being dispatched even as we discuss this.Thank You Hunt,
Finally a voice of reason. I've just had a hard time getting threw too these Mongers that you just can't run around with $800,000 in cash.
That kind of money is "Red Meat" to our varrious law enforcment agency's. They love it when a case like this comes up. Its easy to investagate and has all the makings of political intrigue and corruption that they so love to fuck people up with.
Mr Wilson, the "Bag Man" has got a big problem. Once the incendent was published in the New York Times the Fed's have no choice but to jump all over it. Wilson's problem starts with he can't return home to Miami. Soon as he goes threw pass port control "Bingo" they've got him. Next he'll have to "Roll Over" on what the real deal is so he does less time.
The Fed's have very high tech computer systems just to track money. A friend of mines daughter did just that. Top Secret clearence she spends all day everyday tracking "Hot Money" around the world. Doesn't matter the country where it came from or where it's going they can track it.
There really arn't any secrets anymore.
Exon
The second case, a Drug Dealer, again with a spotless record. He was never with in a mile of his Drugs. Always paid someone else to do his dirty work. Was driving down I-10 not all that far from the Mexican border. He's pulled over and they find $45,000 in cash in his car. He got 3 1/2 years with the Fed's.This was the point where Exon quit doing that for a living.
ROTFLMAO!
Jackson
This was the point where Exon quit doing that for a living.
ROTFLMAO!
JacksonSotra like the pot calling the kettle Black, right Jackson.
Exon
Mr Wilson, the "Bag Man" has got a big problem. Once the incendent was published in the New York Times the Fed's have no choice but to jump all over it. Wilson's problem starts with he can't return home to Miami. Soon as he goes threw pass port control "Bingo" they've got him. Next he'll have to "Roll Over" on what the real deal is so he does less time. ExonUnless there is REAL money and serious corruption involved, then, according to the The Director of the Serious Fraud Office and the Attorney General of the UK:
"The need to safeguard national and international security. It has been necessary to balance the need to maintain the rule of law against the wider public interest."
In other words, fuck the citizens, discontinue investigations, censure any incriminating findings, bury the story, and change the subject.
In regards to the money, you can carry any amount of legal money you want just as long as you can account for it's origins and your intentions with regards to it.
End of story, talking about Drug Dealers is seriously getting off topic, but at least we know you have an imagination Ex.
Bad
Badboy13, please explain.The better question would be what does this entire conversation have to do with Argentine Economy, or what do your personal feelings about Kirchner or Chavez have to do with anything.
I at least post facts.
Bad
I will concede this series of scandals has a deleterious effect on the AR economy. Only because it agrees with your politics. You can concede all you want, but you have no proof or facts to back it up. Because if what you said where true, those multi billion dollar BAE / Saudi Arabia scandals would have also had a detrimental effect on the UK's economy, and on the contrary those billion dollar bribes actually helped BAE aquire about 86 billion dollars in past contracts and an additional 80 billion in the future. The reader can believe what they want, all they have to do is a quick google search on the BAE scandal that was NOT detrimental to the UK economy and in fact benefited both the corporations and the government.
So with all due respect, you are full of shit, and as long as biased political opinions muddle up your posts, you and others can and will be challenged. Because I didn't once hear you chide Exon when he totally went off topic talking about US drug dealers and the DEA. Maybe because his general political views coincide with yours.
But whatever, keep it up,.
Bad
BadBoy why don't you give it up and quit making a "Fool" out yourself.
Exon
BundaLover
08-16-07, 21:36
Sorry but I can't remember if I was arguing with Exon or Badboy.
Anyway Argento there are certain major large cities in the US that have certain court approved injunctions for search and seizure due to a demonstrated pattern of organized criminal activity. For example Oakland California police had the right to stop and INSPECT and seize what-ever materials including the car if they 'believed' the vechicle or occupants had intention of 'drug dealing or solicitation of prostution'. Note this is far more encompassing then the 'reasonable suspision' or in 'plain view' guidelines normally in place in California. The story gets interesting when one reads in the newspaper that they pulled over someone for an illegal u-turn and upon inspection found 3 oz of marijana AND they confiscate the car which is owned by the 17 year old driver's father or mother. The car is typically sold at auction by the time the owners consult with a lawyer. Lots of fun and sad stories about this. As you can imagine justice is not 100% accurate.
Other than these special zones. Police are not involved with the feds. For example SF Ca is a 'santuary' city. The SF Police will NOT call INS when they arrest an illegal. They are PROHIBBITED BY LOCAL LAW (board of supervisors) from doing so. I am not a law enforcment guy but there are really HARD lines of separation in California (County by county- Southern Cal is more conservative) from federal agencies. Your state may be normal.
We have a huge problem with illegal drivers or should I say drivers here for long term that drive to work, drive their kids to school and do not have CA drivers lic. Is it better to include them in the system or ignore them? Very tough questions. The CHP behaves differently then the San Mateo police for example.
Exon. 800kUS $ is about what you spent on your last fishing trip isnt it?
I'm poor. I am luck to see 80 pesos every second Sunday, then I give it to 1707 Santa Fe apt #3.
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38. "Blair defends Saudi probe ruling", BBC News, 15 December 2006. Retrieved on 2006-12-15.
39. "Criticism of ditched Saudi probe", BBC News, 15 December 2006. Retrieved on 2006-12-15.
40. OECD (14 March 2007) OECD decision to re-open investigation. OECD. Retrieved on 2007-04-27.
41. "Watchdog chief warns Saudi arms probe 'must be re-opened'", Evening Standard, 17 January 2007.
42. Pfeifer, Sylvia, Helen Power. "'I like shooting things'", Daily Telegraph, 2007-07-15.
43. Saudi prince 'received arms cash', BBC, 7 June 2007
44. Associated Press. "BAE says U. S. Is investigating dealings with Saudi Arabia", International Herald Tribune, 2007-06-26.
So now all you are doing is exposing your political bias, which is fine but don't try to mask it as anything else. I twisted NOTHING, If you have any evidence of that, post it.
Only because it agrees with your politics. You can concede all you want, but you have no proof or facts to back it up. Because if what you said where true, those multi billion dollar BAE / Saudi Arabia scandals would have also had a detrimental effect on the UK's economy, and on the contrary those billion dollar bribes actually helped BAE aquire about 86 billion dollars in past contracts and an additional 80 billion in the future. The reader can believe what they want, all they have to do is a quick google search on the BAE scandal that was NOT detrimental to the UK economy and in fact benefited both the corporations and the government.
So with all due respect, you are full of shit, and as long as biased political opinions muddle up your posts, you and others can and will be challenged. Because I didn't once hear you chide Exon when he totally went off topic talking about US drug dealers and the DEA. Maybe because his general political views coincide with yours.
But whatever, keep it up,.
Bad
Bad, ''there you go again''-''resorting to name calling''! You can't stay on subject And calling me ''full of shit''. Where in hell, does that put you? What happened in the UK has no relevence in AR, no matter how many ''twisted facts'' you contrive! Is that a threat Bad?--''But whatever, keep it up,''Where in that entire post was I name calling? You are flat out lying right now, and now I am " name calling " by calling you a LIAR.
Where are the twisted facts? If you have any evidence that anything I posted was in some way, shape, or form twisted please post it, otherwise you are continuing to talk out of your ass. I didn't twist anything and the " reader " can google it and find the exact same data.
As usual, you excuse the corruption from political parties you accept and condemn percieved corruption from those political parties you disagree with, which is your right. But I call it like it is and if you don't like it, that's tough.
And as far as Exon is concerned, give me a break, you are the biggest fool here, and if you think I am foolish, that's great, am I supposed to care? Sure buddy, you do nothing but pimp women onto other forum members and pathetically try to convince everyone you are some investment genius that brags about seeing 800k cash.
Miss me with that shit,
Bad
Here's a HUGE scandal that was swept under the carpet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Yamamah
These are DIRECT quotes, no doctoring or " twisting ", just the same home grown corruption patriotic nationals seem to either condone or ignore in their home countries yet try to condemn in countries that don't share their political agenda.
On 1 December The Daily Telegraph ran a front page headline suggesting that Saudi Arabia had given the UK ten days to suspend the Serious Fraud Office investigation into BAE / Saudi Arabian transactions or they would take the deal to France "
On 14 December 2006, the Attorney General Lord Goldsmith announced that the investigation was being discontinued. The 15-strong team had been ordered to turn in their files two days before. The statement in the House of Lords read:
" The Director of the Serious Fraud Office has decided to discontinue the investigation into the affairs of BAE Systems plc as far as they relate to the Al Yamamah defence contract. This decision has been taken following representations that have been made both to the Attorney General and the Director concerning the need to safeguard national and international security. It has been necessary to balance the need to maintain the rule of law against the wider public interest. "
" On 26 June 2007 BAE announced that the United States Department of Justice had launched its own investigation into Al Yamamah. It specifically was looking into allegations that a US bank had been used to funnel payments to Prince Bandar. "
" In a newspaper interview, Robert Wardle, head of the Serious Fraud Office, acknowledged that the decision to terminate the investigation may have damaged "the reputation of the UK as a place which is determined to stamp out corruption. "
Monday October 13, 2003
The Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/armstrade/story/0,,1061671,00.html
In October 2004, the BBC's Money Program broadcast an in-depth story, including allegations in interviews with Edward Cunningham and another former insider, about the way BAE Systems alleged to have paid bribes to Prince Turki bin Nasser and ran a secret £60 million slush fund in relation to the Al Yamamah deal.[24] Most of the money was alleged to have been spent through a front company called Robert Lee International Limited. The SFO was also investigating BAE's relationship with Travellers World Limited.[25] There also exists an internal five page report from 1996 detailing the fraud allegations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3712770.stm
My Lords, with the leave of the House, I shall make a Statement which relates to the investigation by the Serious Fraud Office into BAE Systems plc concerning payments made in relation to the Al Yamamah programme with Saudi Arabia. This afternoon, the Serious Fraud Office has announced that it is discontinuing this investigation. Its statement says:
"The Director of the Serious Fraud Office has decided to discontinue the investigation into the affairs of BAe Systems plc as far as they relate to the Al Yamamah defence contract. This decision has been taken following representations that have been made both to the Attorney General and the Director concerning the need to safeguard national and international security. It has been necessary to balance the need to maintain the rule of law against the wider public interest. No weight has been given to commercial interests or to the national economic interest".
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/lords/?id=2006-12-14c.1711.2 Lord Goldsmith (Attorney General, Law Officers' Department) Link to this | Hansard source
Do you really think I give a shit what you think Sidney? You can think what you want, I at least contribute and serious contributing mongers know and respect this, you are a joke here, even your friends understand that all you do is come here and post pure politically motivated rants about your hate for Latin American political figures.
You are like a small child that puts his fingers in his ears to block out the truth, Am I supposed to take someone like that seriously? Be real, your political commentary is more of the same, about the only actual quotes you have ever provided is either the Miami Herald or the BA Herald, and nothing more, no factual anything.
And at the end of the day, when I post link after link of data detailing my " twisted " facts, you act like a bigger child and start name calling.
Why don't you take your ass back to the DR, or did the great neo liberal DR policies actually create something far worse than Argentina? You came back with your tail between your legs just like I said you would. Oh and BTW, I am still waiting for the price to go down below $50.
ROFFLMMFAO.
Bad.
PS, please continue
Thursday, 7 June 2007, 18:09 GMT 19:09 UK
A Saudi prince who negotiated a £40bn arms deal between Britain and Saudi Arabia received secret payments for over a decade, a BBC probe has found.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6728773.stm
Bad
Rock Harders
08-17-07, 10:00
Badboy,
Not to take sides in the battle for supremacy between you and "Sidney", but giving a laundry lists of sources and factual information about a corruption scandal that happened between the UK and Saudi Arabia has absolutely nothing to do with the Argentine Economy or the current scandal involving the $800k. Everyone knows the USA and the UK have been propping up the House of Saud ever since WWII in order to get them to keep oil supplies flowing, and in the case of the USA, keep selling that oil only in dollars.
The relevant point in regards to this scandal and its effect on the Argentina economy is that it just further reinforces the vibe that has become accepted worldwide: the Argentine society and political institutions are so corrupt to the point of saturation that they can never be trusted. This is a critical election year and this scandal will not be swept under the carpet; in order to look less like a banana republic, the Argentine judicial system will investigate this matter and someone will be caught with dirty hands. This scandal, along with the Felisa Miceli unexplained cash in the bathroom affair, is a revealing display of the disgracefulness of the Argentine system. These scandals do have a detrimental effect on the economy; demand for Argentine bonds will decrease (they welched once and they will do it again) the Pesos will inevitably slide (4-1 coming to a Casa de Cambio near you) which will make it harder for the government to service its existing debt and wipe out the purchasing power of the people.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
You seem to have a real problem with the connection between your mouth and your brain. You start offending people online then you accuse THEM of name calling, then you post an entire two paragraphs attacking me and then proceed to accuse ME of character assassination. Are you really THAT stupid or are you just pretending?
Then, after telling the ENTIRE forum how you were the victim of multiple home invasion attempts and your hooker girlfriend what threatened with a gun, and that is why you canceled your long term lease, then you tell us it's none of our business? Stop posting your lame DR stories on the forum you idiot.
And after all this you start telling me how you work for a living, who fucking cares, good for you, again, it's none of my business right? So stop making it such, and as far as myself, I have always worked for my money but this forum is neither the place nor the community with which to discuss such things with. PS, I hardly consider what you do for a living work, but then again, that is just my personal opinion.
And please explain to the ENTIRE forum how an entire BBC report on this HUGE corruption scandal that has been documented has anything to do with a loco idea? You are so full of shit it's not even funny, again, you are a pathetic old man, and the saddest part is, at your age you seem to know so little about so much, Dirk is a third of your age and he seems to know and understand things in a way your pre dementia has been ass never will. As far as I am concerned, I know enough to understand you are full of shit, go back to counting beans silly rabbit.
Bad.
Dirk, As far as Latin American politics, my main point for posting this was to simply punctuate the rampant hipocracy on this forum and in the world with regards to corruption. As you stated, Argentina is corrupt, it was corrupt BEFORE Kirchner and it will be corrupt after Kirchner, as the old saying goes, if you lie with pigs don't complain when you wake up dirty. In other words, if you want to be in politics, you have to be ready to play ball and the name of the game is graft bribery corruption and so on. So I don't see how this particular incident has anything to do with Argentine economy. And you can disagree and that is your right.
Funny, good thing you posted the experience on AP, I am sure they won't have a hard time catching up with you. BTW, I am sure you know it is spelled Tec-9. But bravo for the much needed levity.
Bad
Badboy,
Not to take sides in the battle for supremacy between you and "Sidney", but giving a laundry lists of sources and factual information about a corruption scandal that happened between the UK and Saudi Arabia has absolutely nothing to do with the Argentine Economy or the current scandal involving the $800k. Everyone knows the USA and the UK have been propping up the House of Saud ever since WWII in order to get them to keep oil supplies flowing, and in the case of the USA, keep selling that oil only in dollars.
The relevant point in regards to this scandal and its effect on the Argentina economy is that it just further reinforces the vibe that has become accepted worldwide: the Argentine society and political institutions are so corrupt to the point of saturation that they can never be trusted. This is a critical election year and this scandal will not be swept under the carpet; in order to look less like a banana republic, the Argentine judicial system will investigate this matter and someone will be caught with dirty hands. This scandal, along with the Felisa Miceli unexplained cash in the bathroom affair, is a revealing display of the disgracefulness of the Argentine system. These scandals do have a detrimental effect on the economy; demand for Argentine bonds will decrease (they welched once and they will do it again) the Pesos will inevitably slide (4-1 coming to a Casa de Cambio near you) which will make it harder for the government to service its existing debt and wipe out the purchasing power of the people.
Suerte,
Dirk DigglerThank You Dirk, another voice of reason.
The subject was Argentina not some Saudi oil scam involving a bunch of arms that both sides benifit from.
And the Saudi's have been doing that shit for years, thats the way they do business.
BadBoy is getting dementia, he actually thinks that the $800,000 is no big deal and its going to blow over in the middle of a Presidential campain.
He also thinks if your pulled over and they find $800,000 in your car here in the US everything cool and they'll wave you right on threw.
And of course the Argentine Judge putting out a world wide arrest warrant for the "Bag Man" is just a joke and means nothing. He can return to Florida and everything cool.
And of course our authorities here in the USA won't do anything since its not illegal to have $800,000 in cash and the story makes the New York Times.
I say "Hide and Watch" BadBoy your about to learn some of the facts of life.
And finally grow up and quit being so obsessive about things you know nothing about.
Exon
Argentina requests arrest of Venezuelan money courier.
Quoting court sources, Télam said that the judge rejected a request by Antonini Wilson to be exempted from possibly going to jail pending investigation.
Antonini Wilson left for Uruguay soon after Argentine authorities seized the money from him after his arrival early last week and a prosecutor expressed suspicion that he may have left for Bolivia. He arrived while Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez was paying a visit to Argentina.
The Venezuelan government said that it was "irregular" that employees from the Venezuelan state-run PDVSA oil company were on the flight that brought Antonini Wilson to Buenos Aires. Argentina has demanded a "gesture" from Venezuela in connection with the case and the vice-president of the Argentine branch of PDVSA Diego Uzcategui Matheus — who allegedly put Antonini Wilson on the charter flight — was fired as a consequence.
Chávez is a close ally of President Néstor Kirchner.
(Herald staff with Télam)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exon
BadBoy is getting dementia, he actually thinks that the $800,000 is no big deal and its going to blow over in the middle of a Presidential campain.
He also thinks if your pulled over and they find $800,000 in your car here in the US everything cool and they'll wave you right on threw.
I say "Hide and Watch" BadBoy your about to learn some of the facts of life.
And finally grow up and quit being so obsessive about things you know nothing about.
ExonWhy don't you act your age Exon, all one hundred years of it. I think that this will not affect Kirchners presidential race as much as other do, period. It is being blown out of proportion by those who stand to benifit from it being blown out of proportion.
I said very clearly, If you are caught in the US with money and you can account for it legally, carrying 800k in itself is not a crime. You can try to twist things all you want but my words were posted in plain english.
You are the stupid ass that brought up your so called " drug dealing " friends. Now I don't need to watch anything since I already know how it will turn out. But you can " Hide all you want " But I don't think that will do you any good. And waste your time watching this political charade all you want, but if your choices are between hiding you degenerate pimping old ass or watching this I would suggest you focus on hiding.
I am sure pimping hookers isn't illegal in the US, but I guess that's why you come to Argentina, right?
AGAIN, miss me with that shit. You're old pimpin' ass needs to get off it allready I stopped talking to you like a day ago. Now, whose obsessing?
Bad
Concerning ''Links''--anyone can search and find support for any loco idea that he may savor. GOOD Sidney So I will leave it at that.
Bad.
Argentina requests arrest of Venezuelan money courier. Quoting court sources, Télam said that the judge rejected a request by Antonini Wilson to be exempted from possibly going to jail pending investigation. Antonini Wilson left for Uruguay soon after Argentine authorities seized the money from him after his arrival early last week and a prosecutor expressed suspicion that he may have left for Bolivia. He arrived while Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez was paying a visit to Argentina. The Venezuelan government said that it was "irregular" that employees from the Venezuelan state-run PDVSA oil company were on the flight that brought Antonini Wilson to Buenos Aires. Argentina has demanded a "gesture" from Venezuela in connection with the case and the vice-president of the Argentine branch of PDVSA Diego Uzcategui Matheus — who allegedly put Antonini Wilson on the charter flight — was fired as a consequence. Chávez is a close ally of President Néstor Kirchner. (Herald staff with Télam) Exon Oh wait maybe this data agrees with your overall premise so maybe we won't discard it outright just yet.;)
Bad
I must have hit a sensitive nerve of BadBoy reading his last post.
The truth hurts doesn't it.
Exon
I must have hit a sensitive nerve of BadBoy reading his last post. The truth hurts doesn't it. ExonYeah, that nerve is called REASON, something you seem to have lost the capacity to do. I would probably blame it on the old age. So I can't really tell you to grow up can I? But you can try to act your age.
Go pimp some prostitutes or something? Or are they just " friends "?
Miss me with that shit,
Bad
The truth hurts doesn't it.
Exon
by the way I don't have any friends that deal drugs and don't ever accuse me of that again.
ExonYes, by the sound of your pathetic plea, it really does. So go pimp some hookers or go do that " shit " you keep telling everyone you do for a living. Maybe you can get another chance at eyeballing 800K;)
Bad
Jackson,
I'm not going to stand for CockSuckers mixing my name up with Drugs and You'd better do something about it.
Exon
here's two cases I know of personally. Both guys had spotless criminal records, nothing more than minor traffic violations.
A Drug Dealer, again with a spotless record. He was never with in a mile of his Drugs. Always paid someone else to do his dirty work. Was driving down I-10 not all that far from the Mexican border. He's pulled over and they find $45,000 in cash in his car. He got 3 1/2 years with the Fed's. In both cases they "Rolled" for lighter sentences by the way.Did you forget YOU volunteered this information, effectively going off topic. Now maybe I misunderstood your intimate knowledge of this drug dealers work habits, schemes, prosecutions and other legal troubles, as you knowing this person as you stated " personally ". But I am sure you can see why. So if they aren't your friends, you must watch a hell of alot of CourtTV.
So give it a rest, or did I hit a nerve? ;)
Bad
You guys obviously hate each other, and I've only skimmed the most recent posts. But I will tell you this, if you are carrying some sum of cash over $9999.99 then you are going to be answering some questions.
In fact, if any of you guys watch 20/20 or PrimeTime Live on ABC, a few years ago they were showing how the FL highway patrol / state troppers were intentionally stopping people and confiscating money.
Now it really doesnt matter if they take $2000 or $10000. If you have under $10000, they will probably just seize the money.
They can't do that you say? Sure they can. You know why? Cause the cost of hiring a lawyer, taking time off from your job, and fighting "the system" (also corrupt in the US, just look at how the DAs, Judges and Police all share the same building) you will lose $2-10K trying to fight it. And then the cop just has to LIE and say he suspected you.
And if you are carrying over 10K, beware. The majority of our USD carries traces of cocaine on it, for various reasons. You have no cocaine in your possession? So what! The money indicates in the recent past you were handling drugs.
Thomaso276
08-18-07, 02:20
Tigre, you are close but not quite there. The cases revolved around a Trooper, then Sheriff - Bob Vogel. He started out as a trooper working the I95 run southbound in Volusia county Florida because the money went south and the drugs went north.
He allegedly did alot of profiling but because it was a new approach and there was not alot of precedent. What would happen is he would stop a car with two occupants for a minor violation (of course there were reports he was spotlighting the cars as they went by) and separate them. Their answers never matched and then he would call in the drug dog who would find the money. The occupants would deny it was theirs, since they denied ownership it would be confiscated. Very few arrests were ever made. The mules were happy to drive off. Obviously they were not upstanding citizens. There are alot of probable cause issues and one that arose was the permission to search was always asked for at the conclusion of the traffic stop and ticket issuance. The occupants would be told something like you are free to go and then the deputy would ASK if it would be okay to check the car for drugs. Most people always agreed not realizing that their detention was over and they were free to leave or refuse further questions or searches.
After many years the court cases started to water down the whole system, especially after he was elected Sheriff and set up teams to follow his progam and there were a few abuses. Eventually the whole thing dried up. But not until the SO's office had received alot of money over the years added to their special operations budgets. Another problem arose when the county council wanted to use some of the money to reduce the Sheriff's budget and he rightfully pointed out that confiscated funds under state law could only be used to enhance operations, they could not be used for normal operational expenses. Lots of new uniforms, cars, 40 cal, autos, boats, overtime, training, etc. Thanks drugs dealers!
Believe me 99.9% of the money confiscated was enroute to Miami for cocaine.
Tigre, you are close but not quite there. The cases revolved around a Trooper, then Sheriff - Bob Vogel. He started out as a trooper working the I95 run southbound in Volusia county Florida because the money went south and the drugs went north.
He allegedly did alot of profiling but because it was a new approach and there was not alot of precedent. What would happen is he would stop a car with two occupants for a minor violation (of course there were reports he was spotlighting the cars as they went by) and separate them. Their answers never matched and then he would call in the drug dog who would find the money. The occupants would deny it was theirs, since they denied ownership it would be confiscated. Very few arrests were ever made. The mules were happy to drive off. Obviously they were not upstanding citizens. There are alot of probable cause issues and one that arose was the permission to search was always asked for at the conclusion of the traffic stop and ticket issuance. The occupants would be told something like you are free to go and then the deputy would ASK if it would be okay to check the car for drugs. Most people always agreed not realizing that their detention was over and they were free to leave or refuse further questions or searches.
After many years the court cases started to water down the whole system, especially after he was elected Sheriff and set up teams to follow his progam and there were a few abuses. Eventually the whole thing dried up. But not until the SO's office had received alot of money over the years added to their special operations budgets. Another problem arose when the county council wanted to use some of the money to reduce the Sheriff's budget and he rightfully pointed out that confiscated funds under state law could only be used to enhance operations, they could not be used for normal operational expenses. Lots of new uniforms, cars, 40 cal, autos, boats, overtime, training, etc. Thanks drugs dealers!
Believe me 99.9% of the money confiscated was enroute to Miami for cocaine.So speaks a voice of reason and experience. Very few people cart around briefcases full of cash for legitimate reasons. When they do, and are asked about it, they tend to be able to provide immediate, reasonable answers (Wells Fargo deliveries, bank couriers, diamond merchants, government operatives, real estate closings probably constitute a vast majority of the legitimate cases).
Those who say "It's my right to carry around 800 grand in cash, so fuck off!" are technically right - there's nothing illegal about it. But I'm not stupid, and neither are cops. In such a situation, expect people's suspicions to be legitimately raised.
Concerning ''Links''--anyone can search and find support for any loco idea that he may savor. You are the classic practitioner!Is all I have to say.
Bad
Concerning ''Links''--anyone can search and find support for any loco idea that he may savor. You are the classic practitioner!Is all I have to say.
Bad.
Again, this is pure unsubstantiated innuendo. But knock yourself out.
Never heard of those newspapers, and what do communist papers have anything to do with this? You have no facts to speak of. Changing the subject again aren't we? And as any fair critic could see, my posts are generally straight from the BBC, I mean I know there is a C in the name but I would hardly call them communist, again just more of your illogical dishonest disingenuous spin.
Let's pretend you are in a courtroom, and try to stick to the facts. And remember, facts are those silly things you have to prove in order to be taken seriously. If not it is hearsay and it is of no use to anyone. Unless you are pathetically trying to string something together to fit your overall narrow minded outdated political perspective.
Bad
Would it be dream worthy to think you might actually post verifiable data? I guess you are right. I am dreaming. Well keep posting your politically naive commentary and unverifiable innuendos.
But if you aren't upset by my comments don't respond. BTW none of this has anything to do with the economy here. But I guess we all need a place to rant, don't you Sid.
Bad
I would think you would be dizzy by now but you just keep going and going, keep it up. I think anyone here knows your commentary is the lamest thing on AP. Just imagine what the forum would look like if your amateurish commentary and 2nd grade political analysis was the only thing available.
Bad
But yet again you feel the need to change the subject,
If at your age you need me to teach you anything you really are a lost cause. Though your propaganda skills are quite rudimentary I am sure you can get by preaching to your own quire. Just stay away from people who actually understand what they're talking about, you WILL get laughed at.
Bad
Argentina is not the USA nor the UK. You cannot and should not impute your views of how you think politics should work on a wonderful and unique people who happen to have developed a political system which is a horror. If you are truly interested in this country, you need to read history and actually get to know local portenos and other argentinos who are educated and thoughtful and listen to what they say.
K is far from the worst leader argentina has experienced. He will manipulate the media--just like the republicans and democrats takes turns doing back up in yankee land. Multinationals have robbed the argentines blind in the past. Partially by motivating politicians to blink long enough to let the $$ leave the country. The USA is far from perfect---why do my prescription drugs cost double what the identical drugs cost in Canada? Maybe the North American politicians are also very skilled at blinking. North american style blinking is different than Argentine style blinking because there are two different cultures with different histories.
Please excuse the following bad joke to make my point:
K calls Bush by phone to ask for a conference--K has decided that maybe this Chavez guy is not what he first appeared to be.
K travels to Washington DC to meet with Bush.
K sits with Bush [or substitue Bill Clinton, if you prefer] yakking and looking out over the DC skyline. Bush says:
K, see that autopista over there--10% went to a company owned by my largest supporters. K says "Nice work Bush--us simple south americans have much to learn from the yankees."
Six months later, Bush is at the Casa Rosa with K talking about life and governance of a diverse people. K says to Bush "Look over there--see that bridge?" Bush stands up and is looking and looking. Bush says "I don't see any bridge."
K says: "You are correct Bush--100% went to my supporters."
Whether or not Scouter Libby serves his term in prison or Wilson actually gets arrested will not topple either either government.
Benny or Rick--would you like to attend one of the porteno practice your english conversation groups to meet portenos not involved in the mongering industry--you may make some interesting new friends and broaden your perspective. If you are here only to monger--that's just fine, but accept that you might just not a full view of or understanding of everything that goes on here out side of your main interest. Yes, you are both correct--argentina has more corruption than most places according to the international organizations who study those things.
I, for one, truly have enjoyed my time here doing many things beyond mongering.
Bad chill. I for one wish that you would use the energy wasted arguing with these guys to share more of your argentine experience. Your posts are generally interesting and informative.
Bob
Theres a "Commie" MotherFucker that been posting here.
Exon
To anyone who actually likes Argentina and Argentines.
This is not a nation made up of retarded childern. I agree Bad in combination with Exon and yourself has turned this area into a flaming contest. Neither Bad nor myself are communists and we are both not idiots. I aggree that now is not the time to make a substantial real estate investment until the post election smoke clears and we can see a future direction. Christina may end-up destroying the economy and I'm bet money that K is chosing his own scooter libby as I write these words.
A couple of years ago, I was at a party at 2am, after a lot of drinking, the portenos started to play a game----
When the banks froze your accounts, how did you get money to eat. People were laughing so hard that their stomachs hurt. WE yankees have a hard time understanding, but don't assume that this group was made-up of idiots and fools. Argentina has it's own way of doing things, not the best from my culturally biased point of view. George soros greatly increased his wealth when he was here by learning how the system works and using it to create a money machine. There are sophisticated people people making money in many places other than wall street or the city of london. Many of them do not think like you. You are an intelligent man. When we met I you, I immediately liked you and I respect your life experience.
This is the last time that I will post in this section. Things are out of hand. I personally would request that the internet gods intervene.
Here. I would aggree to disagree. Both syd and exon get one free flame against me---you win. Bad.
Tone things down please. When you are angry the.
Boys are less likely to understand the point you are making and. You know what I mean.
Punter 127
08-23-07, 15:47
Neither Bad nor myself are communists Whoa, in Bads case you sure could have fooled me!
....K sits with Bush [or substitue Bill Clinton, if you prefer] yakking and looking out over the DC skyline. Bush says:
K, see that autopista over there--10% went to a company owned by my largest supporters. K says "Nice work Bush--us simple south americans have much to learn from the yankees."
Six months later, Bush is at the Casa Rosa with K talking about life and governance of a diverse people. K says to Bush "Look over there--see that bridge?" Bush stands up and is looking and looking. Bush says "I don't see any bridge."
K says: "You are correct Bush--100% went to my supporters."....The difference here is that in the USA the bridge got built.
Thanks,
Jackson
I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.
The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.
No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.
Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.
The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?
I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.
The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.
No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.
Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.
The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?You are right about that one.
I also see a recession in the USA, a serious crash in China and Argentina will really go down
I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.
The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.
No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.
Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.
The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?That was done by purpose, Argento. The Argentine economy is based on exports, and the government has been trying to keep the dollar above 3 pesos.
Andres
Rock Harders
08-24-07, 00:13
Andres-
I keep hearing this "Argentine gov't keeps peso at 3/1" argument and at one time I did believe it to be true. In early-mid 2005 the peso had appreciated against the dollar as far as 2.79 I believe and the Lavagna-led economic team made it a policy to buy dollars in the marketplace in order to keep the exchange around close to 3/1 in order to maintain the export led economic recovery. Some kooks even argue that now the "real value" of the peso is around 2.4/ dollar.
However, the reality in my mind is that as inflation has taken off in the past two and a half years, salaries have risen dramatically WITHOUT any increase in productivity, and the government prints more and more money to pay for their welfare state programs, the government is now actually doing all it can to keep the peso south of 3.2/ dollar. All the futures are betting that the peso will slide further than 3.2/ dollar and possibly significantly further. The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1. Big-time inflation, no increase in productivity, non-stop printing of currency leads to depreciated peso.
Essentially Lavagna was the architect behind the export-led economic recovery and since Kirchner scuttled him, there has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1.It's a good thing we are all holding Dollars or Euros then right?
There has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust. Seriously guys, since you all seem to be such great economic minds, maybe you should call Kirchner, tell him to fire all those Ivy league, PH. D idiots and hire one of you. I am sure you could fix things in a few weeks.
Bad.
BTW Jackson, The bridge didn't get built, and that is why the old one collapsed into the mississippi.
Andres-
I keep hearing this "Argentine gov't keeps peso at 3/1" argument and at one time I did believe it to be true. In early-mid 2005 the peso had appreciated against the dollar as far as 2.79 I believe and the Lavagna-led economic team made it a policy to buy dollars in the marketplace in order to keep the exchange around close to 3/1 in order to maintain the export led economic recovery. Some kooks even argue that now the "real value" of the peso is around 2.4/ dollar.
However, the reality in my mind is that as inflation has taken off in the past two and a half years, salaries have risen dramatically WITHOUT any increase in productivity, and the government prints more and more money to pay for their welfare state programs, the government is now actually doing all it can to keep the peso south of 3.2/ dollar. All the futures are betting that the peso will slide further than 3.2/ dollar and possibly significantly further. The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1. Big-time inflation, no increase in productivity, non-stop printing of currency leads to depreciated peso.
Essentially Lavagna was the architect behind the export-led economic recovery and since Kirchner scuttled him, there has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.
Suerte,
Dirk DigglerDirk,
I don't think that there is a single cause for the peso-dollar exchange rate, but a number of factors. Inflation impacts, for sure, but increased domestic consumption too, which is significant in a country where people keep their savings in USD.
In any case, Argentineans understand that a weaker peso doesn't necessarily mean that things go awry. Many of us remember the Menem era, when the peso seemed to be solid but the whole economic structure was actually falling apart (with the exception of financial speculation)
As of the "futures", take them with a grain of salt. I remember all the gurues from the City (M. A. Broda, for instance) reassuring on early 2002 that "the peso will depreciate by December 2002 up to 5 to 1 or even 20 to 1 if Argentina doesn't come to terms with the IMF". Needless to say, that didn't happen and those who bought futures by then didn't make much profit.
Eventually, this system will get outdated and will be replaced, but for a complex bunch of reasons (many of them of social stability, let's name them "political") The "Adam Smith's cookbook of how to manage an economic system" doesn't cut it anymore.
Andres
Despite all the hype by the government, the Argentine economy is not great. Many of the forum members have lived here from before the Menem era or during it. The economy is based on taxing rural exports and distributing that revenue according to whatever policy on spending is in vogue at the time. The current boom in retail sales is based on the available credit and the confidence the population has in borrowing and using this money. Argentine economists are as well trained as any western economists and they certainly understand that the current economic policies are unsustainable. And I am sure they have told the politicians. But Argentinians as a group, there are exceptions, lack a realistic economic sense, and the politicians do what is expedient at the time.
Since domestic accommodation prices (purchases) have plateaued, the current boom in construction of domestic housing will ensue that the builders will not profit. Costs are escalating and by the time the properties enter the market, they will be more expensive to build than the market will bear, and for those apartments sold off the plan. And then you will see the half completed apartment blocks that have been and still are a feature of the city skyline. Return on capital for domestic housing (5%) is about half the current interest rate for deposits (9%) The only real profit available is in construction. Very few Argentinians build to rent, hence the escalating rentals now a feature of this forum, due to the shortage of rental properties.
Of course economic reality will eventually come into play. But as long as Argentina can get money, either by grace of Chavez or any other source, they will take it and damm the consequences. When it becomes impossible to repay, they will blame the lenders for their lack of propriety.
So all forum members who think that the peso will fall to 4 or 5 to the U$, my experience in the past is that it just doesn't happen that way. Since the devaluation of 2002, the change is only 1% per annum. Internal inflation seems to run counter to all commonsense. I have no explanation but I do offer the following opinion. There is a long way to go before the currency will collapse based apon past observations.
So economic chaos is some time off!
BundaLover
08-24-07, 15:32
Return on capital for domestic housing (5%) is about half the current interest rate for deposits (9%) The only real profit available is in construction. Very few Argentinians build to rent, hence the escalating rentals now a feature of this forum, due to the shortage of rental properties.
So economic chaos is some time off!Argento,
Can you explain the 2 mutually incompatible things you stated above? If one 'loses' on average 4% per year by building how is it the only real profit? Are you saying that the hotel owners and retails owners are not profitting now?
Argento,
Can you explain the 2 mutually incompatible things you stated above? If one 'loses' on average 4% per year by building how is it the only real profit? Are you saying that the hotel owners and retails owners are not profitting now?My comments were soley in relation to the capital costs of domestic accomodation. Replacement cost returns about 5% or less on current rentals. Easy to work out. An apartment you can buy for U$75000, rents for less than a 5% yield. Ie. Arg$1200 per month plus expenses.
What I said was that the return on new accomodation is in the profit made in construction. No construction or developement profit, no new housing. There is simply no return in property to beat the interest people receive on cash on deposit. Most rental accomodation is held by people who inherited the property and prefer the income over holding other assets. The local stock market is not a real option and the money in the bank can be pinched by:
A The Government.
B The Bank.
C Circumstances such as the 'corralito' incident.
Hence property holding or off-shore accounts are the only options.
This explains why most of the rental properties are so antiquated and have not been renovated since they were built.
Commercial property is, as always, dependent apon demand and did not form any part of my post.
About 3 million children will benefit, plus 110,000 pesioners.Why doesn't he just order each of the three million to get 100,000 pesos a year, each from the government? Print the pesos and give them the money! An economic genius in the traditional Latin American mold!
It's been almost 10 months since my last trip to Buenos Aires, hopefully the next crisis will begin soon (and from the looks of things it will), so I can again get my unlimited supply of tight willing pussy for 20 dollars an hour and a big ribeye steak dinner for 5 bucks.
I tell you, 40 bucks an hour for pussy and 10 bucks for a ribeye like it is right now is just too damn high!;)
In 2008 Argentina will be hydrocarbon importing country instead of an exporting country.
In 2006 about 20% of all exports were hydrocarbons.
Good luck to Kristina, she will definitly need it
In 2008 Argentina will be hydrocarbon importing country instead of an exporting country.
In 2006 about 20% of all exports were hydrocarbons.
Good luck to Kristina, she will definitly need itIt doesn't surprise me, for 2 reasons:
1) Argentina was never a high-volume oil producer. In fact, by the mid 90s it was estimated that the by-then current reserves would last for 10-15 years.
2) Internal consumption boomed.
So, depending on your point of view, that reality may be seen as a positive or negative sign.
Andres
Andres-
I keep hearing this "Argentine gov't keeps peso at 3/1" argument and at one time I did believe it to be true. In early-mid 2005 the peso had appreciated against the dollar as far as 2.79 I believe and the Lavagna-led economic team made it a policy to buy dollars in the marketplace in order to keep the exchange around close to 3/1 in order to maintain the export led economic recovery. Some kooks even argue that now the "real value" of the peso is around 2.4/ dollar.
However, the reality in my mind is that as inflation has taken off in the past two and a half years, salaries have risen dramatically WITHOUT any increase in productivity, and the government prints more and more money to pay for their welfare state programs, the government is now actually doing all it can to keep the peso south of 3.2/ dollar. All the futures are betting that the peso will slide further than 3.2/ dollar and possibly significantly further. The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1. Big-time inflation, no increase in productivity, non-stop printing of currency leads to depreciated peso.
Essentially Lavagna was the architect behind the export-led economic recovery and since Kirchner scuttled him, there has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.
Suerte,
Dirk DigglerYikes! With his evolution, it now seems that Dirk and I now agree about politics and economics. It warms my heart to see what happens to a guy's views when he stops being a student studying abstract theories and heads out into the real work-a-day world. Congratulations, amigo. :D
It doesn't surprise me, for 2 reasons:
1) Argentina was never a high-volume oil producer. In fact, by the mid 90s it was estimated that the by-then current reserves would last for 10-15 years.
2) Internal consumption boomed.
So, depending on your point of view, that reality may be seen as a positive or negative sign.
AndresThere is still plenty of oil and gas, there just is no investment. The investment is the real bottle neck.
It was obvious that internal comsumtion would boom as GNC / utilities is so cheap (even for Argentine standards) that it's not worthwhile to save.
Brasil faced the same problem around 2002 (after a 1999 devaluation) and they faced the problem with broad plan backed by all sectors in the country to save energy.
That will never happen in Argentina. K hides the problem and hopes Evo and Chile helps him out of this mess.
PS.
1: Chile and Bolivia are talking about a land for gas deal, if they get this worked out, Argentina gets cut out.
2: The Argentine state currently pays around 1% of GDP for subsidies (bus, train, gas, utilities, etc) and it was about 0,5% in 2005. This is no longer sustainable and prices have to be raised.
3: If Argentine indeed will be an hydrocarbon importing country prices will have to be raised or it will eat up the financial surplus.
4: Debt service will be higher in 2008 and Argentina have to strike a deal with the Paris club as well.
There is still plenty of oil and gas, there just is no investment. The investment is the real bottle neck.
It was obvious that internal comsumtion would boom as GNC / utilities is so cheap (even for Argentine standards) that it's not worthwhile to save.
Brasil faced the same problem around 2002 (after a 1999 devaluation) and they faced the problem with broad plan backed by all sectors in the country to save energy.
That will never happen in Argentina. K hides the problem and hopes Evo and Chile helps him out of this mess.
PS.
1: Chile and Bolivia are talking about a land for gas deal, if they get this worked out, Argentina gets cut out.
2: The Argentine state currently pays around 1% of GDP for subsidies (bus, train, gas, utilities, etc) and it was about 0,5% in 2005. This is no longer sustainable and prices have to be raised.
3: If Argentine indeed will be an hydrocarbon importing country prices will have to be raised or it will eat up the financial surplus.
4: Debt service will be higher in 2008 and Argentina have to strike a deal with the Paris club as well.As far as I know, known oil reserves were good 10-15 years and about 50 years for natural gas. There may be more, but that's just an speculation. However, if you have reliable and verifiable info on that matter, I would be glad to hear about that.
The energy sector in Argentina is way much more complex that the relations among the current regional presidents. In fact, the whole subsidy frame touches several interests and factors (bus company owners, agricultural sector, middle-class, etc) not easy to disentangle. I agree that eventually domestic oil prices will match internaitonal ones.
As for the Paris club debt, I wouldn't worry very much. It's just USD 7B, and the government already paid USD 9B to cancel its debt to the IMF. It seems just firework smokes to me, something for the press to talk about.
Andres
As far as I know, known oil reserves were good 10-15 years and about 50 years for natural gas. There may be more, but that's just an speculation. However, if you have reliable and verifiable info on that matter, I would be glad to hear about that.
The energy sector in Argentina is way much more complex that the relations among the current regional presidents. In fact, the whole subsidy frame touches several interests and factors (bus company owners, agricultural sector, middle-class, etc) not easy to disentangle. I agree that eventually domestic oil prices will match internaitonal ones.
As for the Paris club debt, I wouldn't worry very much. It's just USD 7B, and the government already paid USD 9B to cancel its debt to the IMF. It seems just firework smokes to me, something for the press to talk about.
AndresSearch google for 'Argentina oil importing country 2008 ' That will get you some info you are looking for. If I have some time Ill try to find it.
Agentina needs to pay the Paris debt and 7b is a lot for Argentina. They need to pay it out of the Central bank reserve and that's about 20% of the current reserve. The last time they took out that kind of money, the peso suffered and it will suffer again probally.
It's not that hard to predict that if Argentina does have to import more oil then they export and / or Chile buys directly from Bolivia the prices have to be raised or the fiscal surplus will be eaten up.
My guess will be that after Kristina gets elected most taxes, utility, gas and public transport rates will be raised and the Paris club will be paid.
Everything to let Kristina start with a clean sleet.
Oil reserve is not worth a lot by the way as there is no investment and an Argentine version of Petrobras.
Search goolgle for 'Argentina oil importing country 2008 ' That will get you some info you are looking for. If I have some time Ill try to find it.
Agentina needs to pay the paris depth and 7b is a lot for Argentina. They need to pay it out of the Central bank reserve and that's about 20% of the current reserve. The last time they took out that kind of money, the peso suffered and it will suffer again probally.
It's not that hard to predict that if Argentina does have to import more oil then they export and / or Chile buys directly from Bolivia the prices have to be raised or the fiscal surplus will be eaten up.
My guess will be that after Kristina gets elected most taxes, utility, gas and public transport rates will be raised and the Paris club will be paid.
Everything to let Kristina start with a clean sleet.I wonder where did you get the idea that "there is plenty of oil and gas". During the early 90s, there was a strong belief that the "deregulation" of the oil sector would get lots of investments in prospective search. It didn't happen.
I share your guess about the measures that Cristina will take after being elected, but the debt may be paid before. Otherwise, the government wouldn't have made a move to appear on the papers.
Andres
I wonder where did you get the idea that "there is plenty of oil and gas". During the early 90s, there was a strong belief that the "deregulation" of the oil sector would get lots of investments in prospective search. It didn't happen.
I share your guess about the measures that Cristina will take after being elected, but the debt may be paid before. Otherwise, the government wouldn't have made a move to appear on the papers.
AndresThere are still reserves, but it doesn't matter anyhow because they will never be used.
The facts remain that Argentina in 2008 is a hydro carbon net importer instead of an exporter and that in 2006 about 20% of all exports were hydrocarbons
Pick your article.
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=argentina+importer+of+hydro+carbons+in+2008&fr=yfp-t-501&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8&vc=&fp_ip=AR
Argentina could become net oil importer by 2008
01-08-06 Argentina is forecasted to become a net importer of crude by 2008/2010 if the absence of oil exploration persists according to Argentine consultants.
"By the end of this year Argentina will reach its self sufficiency capacity and by 2008 will become a net importer of oil for the first time in fifteen years", says a report from the consultant firm of Economia & Regiones, belonging to economists Rogelio Frigerio and Alejandro Caldarelli.
Daneil Montamat, a former YPF CEO and an energy consultant is not so pessimistic but admits Argentina will have to import light crude to compensate for the excess heavy crude by 2008. Economia & Recursos estimates that in 18 months Argentina will be importing 8.3 % of its current oil demand equivalent to 20 % of Neuquen production which is the largest hydrocarbons producing province of the country.
"This at current prices is equivalent to over a billion dollars and more threatening: experience shows that countries which become oil importers get used to it and loose interest in further exploration", warns Frigerio.
Although Argentina has a long history of oil importation, during the administrations of Presidents Arturo Frondizi, 1958/61, and Ricardo Alfonsin, 1988 managed self sufficiency and in 1992, under President Carlos Menem became a net exporter of oil and gas.
But with no changes in sight, "Argentina will have to import 21.5 % of its oil needs", underlines Frigerio.
Veronica Sosa an economist involved in the compilation of information for the report said that all investment and exploration plans of oil companies are "retained or delayed". But the situation could be reversed in "the mid term" with new findings and further development of existing deposits, adds Sosa who said that all Argentine oil producing provinces are forecasting an annual production drop between 3 and 5 %.
However Argentine government sources deny such a scenario, "production will increase slightly this year, and if production is up, there's no need to import crude".
Anet importer situation for Argentina could have a fulminating impact in prices of many oil industry related by products -- and inflation -- which is why the Kirchner administration is currently so insistent in keeping hydrocarbons prices under control and unlinked from international markets.
Argentina's oil peak production was in 1998, but extraction since has dropped 21 % and at the end of 2005 was back at 1994 production levels. In 1992/93 the Menem administration launched the deregulation of the hydrocarbons sector which rapidly led to Argentina becoming a net exporter of oil and gas.
"So we're back to where we started in 1993, but without the horizon of proven reserves we had then", indicates economist Sosa.
Argentina and Colombia are the only South American oil producing countries which have seen output drop, while production increased 11 % in Brazil; Ecuador 1.1 %; Peru, 11.5 %; Trinidad & Tobago 13 % and Venezuela 1.1 %.
Brazil could be a model example for Argentina argues Sosa, in 1998 Argentina extracted 5 % more oil than Brazil and was a net exporter of fuels, "but now Brazil pumps three times more oil than Argentina and is almost self sufficient, a condition Argentina is loosing".
Regarding similarities and differences between Argentina and Brazil, economist Montamat says that "both countries have oil, are not oil producing / exporting countries and have many unexplored basins". However Brazil "respected international market prices, but not Argentina, and even when Petrobras is government owned and managed it had sufficient funds to keep exploring".
Argentina's heavy taxes on oil and gas exports encourage domestic consumption but hinder investment in exploration and exploitation.
Economia & Regiones supports its arguments comparing production prices in Argentina for gas and oil. While gas at the well in Argentina receives $ 1.5 per mm Btu, in New York trading the equivalent price is $ 9.1.
Similarly with oil which has a 45 % tax in Argentina pushing the barrel price to $ 38 compared to $ 57 in Texas.
Source: www.mercopress.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_energy_crisis_%282004%29
Top PROVEN OIL RESERVES IN THE WORLD.
(In Barrels)
Data Up Through 2005
NR = Not Reported.
Saudi Arabia.
262, 700, 000, 000
Canada.
178, 900, 000, 000
Iran.
133, 300, 000, 000
Iraq.
112, 500, 000, 000
Venezuela.
75, 590, 000, 000
Russia.
69, 000, 000, 000
Libya.
40, 000, 000, 000
Mexico.
33, 310, 000, 000
United States of America.
22, 450, 000, 000
China.
18, 260, 000, 000
Brazil.
15, 120, 000, 000
Norway.
9, 859, 000, 000
India.
5, 700, 000, 000
Indonesia.
4, 600, 000, 000
Great Britain.
4, 500, 000, 000
Australia.
3, 664, 000, 000
Argentina.
2, 950, 000, 000
Egypt.
2, 700, 000, 000
Syria.
2, 500, 000, 000
Italy.
586, 600, 000
Thailand.
583, 000, 000
Germany.
395, 800, 000
Ukraine.
395, 000, 000
Pakistan.
341, 800, 000
Turkey.
288, 400, 000
Philippines.
152, 000, 000
France.
144, 300, 000
Poland.
142, 400, 000
Japan.
29, 290, 000
Spain.
10, 500, 000
Greece.
4, 500, 000
Taiwan.
2, 900, 000
Israel.
1, 920, 000
Lebanon.
NR.
Sweden.
NR.
Afghanistan.
0
South Korea.
NR.
North Korea.
NR.
Nepal.
NR
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/FileZ/ogdtbl.htm
Thanks for the information Redondo, but.
Could you maybe edit your post so it doesn't take an entire forum page? And I see these are 2005 figures, you do know we are almost in 2008 right? I think Venezuela recently certified some deposits and has now climbed up that list at least to number 2 or 3 and when the certifications are finished it will probably be number 1.
Thanks,
Bad
This is a very interesting link.
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/FileZ/oflows.htm
Daneil Montamat, a former YPF CEO and an energy consultant is not so pessimistic but admits Argentina will have to import light crude to compensate for the excess heavy crude by 2008Now correct me if I am wrong, but by this statement I gather that Argentina is still pumping out enough petrol but, because of the fact it is pumping out increasing numbers of heavy crude that it does not have the capacity to refine at home, It might need to import some light crude to compensate in the future?
If you have read the links you yourself have provided, most of what you are saying is highly speculative and extremely debatable. It also sounds like this administration has had to try to clean up decades of mismanagement by previous administrations and some failed privatization policies. Now Kirchner has been in power since 2003 and he is expected to fix the GIANT " Cluster Fuck " of the previous couple of decades in 4 years? Damn.
I sure hope Kristina can fix things, she will inherit a few decades of mismanagement.
Bad
Thanks for the information Redondo, but.
And I see these are 2005 figures, you do know we are almost in 2008 right?
Thanks,You can do it better probally.
There are still reserves, but it doesn't matter anyhow because they will never be used.That's an improvement: From "there is plenty of gas and oil" to "there are still reserves".
The point I want to make is not related to the oil reserves themselves, but to the fact that some people in this board are prone to exaggerate or tweak facts just to make their own points more appealing.
In any case, I appreciate your maturity. Other members would have immediately tagged me as commie, bad propaganda, Kirchner-ass-kisser or such.
Case closed from my side.
Andres
"Proved reserves" is the smallest figure by far for oil and gas reserves. Actual recoverable resources are generally many times the proved reserves figure. There's more oil in the ground in ANWR, for example, than the entire proved reserves listed below for the entire United States. Fifty years ago the proved reserves of the United States were something like 22 billion barrels (don't remember the exact figure). Every year since then we've taken out something like 10% of the 1957 proved reserves of oil - five times what the proved reserves were 50 years ago. Do the math.
Argentina has plenty of oil and gas in the ground. However, it doesn't just magically well up from the earth and into the gas tanks of Porteno automobiles. It takes capital, know-how, and a stable business environment, none of which Argentina has. Therefore Argentina will leave most of its oil in the ground and will import oil from countries with better petroleum production infrastructures. Maybe the country can turn things around, but if Hillary Jr. is elected President, I doubt it.
Even though it has much more oil than Argentina, the oil production of Venezuela, for example, is dropping like a stone because that country too is in the midst of economic self-destruction.
That's an improvement: From "there is plenty of gas and oil" to "there are still reserves".
The point I want to make is not related to the oil reserves themselves, but to the fact that some people in this board are prone to exaggerate or tweak facts just to make their own points more appealing.
In any case, I appreciate your maturity. Other members would have immediately tagged me as commie, bad propaganda, Kirchner-ass-kisser or such.
Case closed from my side.
AndresWhen I said 'there is plenty' I meant of course the proven reserves. For me it's a pretty objective measurement of the oil and gas left.
I don't know how about the 'could be' figure but I don't think it's that much.
Argentina is not rich in minerals, unlike for example Chile (Copper) and Brasil (Iron-ore) and other then that Argentina lacks an investment-climate.
Thomaso276
08-28-07, 16:14
Article in papers this morning pointed out that unemployment has fallen (again) under 10 % and the law regarding double indemity for firing workers or laying them off is supposed to be changed (it was implemented after the crash) however, gov't says they are going to keep the law for awhile.
Investment questions here in Arg. center around a lack of stabillity and constant change. Now this law is suposed to sunset and it doesn't. Another strange message to international investment.
I was going to open up a oil refinery but have decided to hold off.
Article in papers this morning pointed out that unemployment has fallen (again) under 10 % and the law regarding double indemity for firing workers or laying them off is supposed to be changed (it was implemented after the crash) however, gov't says they are going to keep the law for awhile.Do you really believe that only 8% is unemployed?
K fights, as if totally loco, about 2 paper mills in Uruguay (reputedly, AR could have had both mills according to a CNN source) Obviously, this does great damage to any foreign investment in S. A.He could of course also try:
1: To clean up Riochuelo and other chitty rivers.
2: Try to close down the 18 pulp mill plants Argentina have that pollute a lot more.
3: Convince his cabinet chief not to take a role at the board of the biggest client of Botnia.
4: Sell the 8% stake the Argentine state has in the project.
But hey, who am I?
If I walk around in BA there must be a serious recession going on. Nobody goes out, spends and stuff like that.
Compared to 2005 or even 2006 BA is really DEATH
All this absolute speculation that the economy here is about to crash reminds me of Mark Twain, (of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn fame) In the belief that he had died, an obituary was published in a newspaper. Clements, Twain real name, wrote, "Rumours of his death are greatly exaggerated".
My real belief is that there is a lot of wishfull thinking going on. Pussy and general living expenses here are very volatile in their pricing. Mongers who can only remember prices immediately after the corralito and the upward spiral since, would do well to remember that this is the pattern here and has been for the 20 years that I know. Eventually it will fall into the hole the politicians are digging, but not just yet. The influx of Paraquayas reflects the fullish employment situation at present. There were very few just after 2002 because of the shortage of jobs. I know Geo Eye won't agree, but a lot of the woman who work in the industry, would prefer employment other than fucking strangers for money and putting up with all sorts of belittling requests.
So to cut to the Chase. The economy here is not about to shit itself; prices will continue to go up; those mongers hoping for a crash and a drop in prices are going to be disappointed and there will be more busloads of cheap imported pussy rolling down the Pan American.
All this absolute speculation that the economy here is about to crash reminds me of Mark Twain, (of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn fame) In the belief that he had died, an obituary was published in a newspaper. Clements, Twain real name, wrote, "Rumours of his death are greatly exaggerated".
My real belief is that there is a lot of wishfull thinking going on. Pussy and general living expenses here are very volatile in their pricing. Mongers who can only remember prices immediately after the corralito and the upward spiral since, would do well to remember that this is the pattern here and has been for the 20 years that I know. Eventually it will fall into the hole the politicians are digging, but not just yet. The influx of Paraquayas reflects the fullish employment situation at present. There were very few just after 2002 because of the shortage of jobs. I know Geo Eye won't agree, but a lot of the woman who work in the industry, would prefer employment other than fucking strangers for money and putting up with all sorts of belittling requests.
So to cut to the Chase. The economy here is not about to shit itself; prices will continue to go up; those mongers hoping for a crash and a drop in prices are going to be disappointed and there will be more busloads of cheap imported pussy rolling down the Pan American.Inflation will soon start to affect the competive edge and that will lead to a recession. Even sooner if the US crashes.
Inflation will soon start to affect the competive edge and that will lead to a recession. Even sooner if the US crashes.Argentina really only exports agricultural products such as cereals and soy. Most of the manufactured goods that are exported are off-set against similiar imports from the Mercosur countries. As agricultural producers this country is reasonably efficient and with the world scarcity of grain and soy, which are not exported to the USA, the US is not a prime factor in this economy. I fail to see that the internal inflation will effect anything except the price of living here for expats. And that of course includes the cost of desirable pussy.
I repeat my mantra. "No recession here for a few years. Normal economics do not apply."
Argentina really only exports agricultural products such as cereals and soy. Most of the manufactured goods that are exported are off-set against similiar imports from the Mercosur countries. As agricultural producers this country is reasonably efficient and with the world scarcity of grain and soy, which are not exported to the USA, the US is not a prime factor in this economy. I fail to see that the internal inflation will effect anything except the price of living here for expats. And that of course includes the cost of desirable pussy.
I repeat my mantra. "No recession here for a few years. Normal economics do not apply."If the peso goes to 1:4 against the dollar farmers lose 30% of the earnings
If the peso goes to 1:4 against the dollar farmers lose 30% of the earningsWell Redondo, you seem to have travelled a long distance since you first posted on this board. Our first discussion was about internal inflation and the line you took then was that internal price increases didn't increase the cost of exports. I said then that you were economically naive and I think I was right the first time. Now you expect that a 4:1 exchange rate is going to send the farmers here to the wall. But it ain't happened yet. Remember Mrs Beeton's advice about how to make a rabbit pie. "First catch your rabbit". In our context, the drop in the exchange rate has to take place before any of the suppositions you and a few other doom and gloom experts continually advance have a chance of occurring. The economy here is volatile but at the moment is going great guns. Internal inflation will continue, but with the 'rivers of gold', as a friend of mine here calls the soy export income, there is a lot of upside to the economy. Both for the farmers and the government.
At the rate you post, the contents of your posts ought to be devalued. At least there is a reason for devaluing your posts rather than ill-informed speculation on the Argentine economy, which you would have us believe is reason enough for a devaluation of the peso.
I guess you would have to hold the record for the quickest number of posts with the least content.
Geee! Not a record I'd cherish.
This is especially posted for Rodondo.
Devaluation benefits exporters and therefore farmers. They sell in U$ and rather than losing 30% of their income, at a 4:1 exchange rate, they gain an increased ARG$ income of 20%.
Manufacturers generally favour a currency that is cheap because it makes them more competitive. If you have followed the AIRBUS Vs BOEING pricing of the past couple of years, AIRBUS is not competitive with BOEING because of the value of the Euro, apart from manufacturing matters.
I guess you would have to hold the record for the quickest number of posts with the least content.
Geee! Not a record I'd cherish.Let's start the personal insults and show how classy you are.
Or did you just run out of arguments?
This is especially posted for Rodondo.
Devaluation benefits exporters and therefore farmers. They sell in U$ and rather than losing 30% of their income, at a 4:1 exchange rate, they gain an increased ARG$ income of 20%.You must be asleep the last 5 years because eventhough the dollar devalued heavenly the peso devalued even more. A 1:4 peso therefore lead not only to a weaker dollar but also to a even weaker peso.
And that will cost farmers lose profits.
Or did you just run out of arguments?It appears that you don't get it. Mongers aren't interested in arguing with you because you are a lightweight. When they do "argue" with you, it's like beating a one legged, blind schoolgirl in a footrace. But, hey, keep on trying! It's amusing to watch you fall down and not know where you are.
August trade surplus down 58% due to surging exports.
I said it earlier but it seems now that Argentina starts to suffer from surging imports that can't be off-set by growing exports. The main reason for the surge in imports are the increase in fuel imports. I don't know if Argentina is already an fuel importing country but soon they will be, with leads to a more uneven trade balance.
The August fiscal surplus (before debt service) was about 850 million dollars. With a debt service of around 9 billion dollar next year the fiscal surplus will barely be enough to pay off debts.
The budget which was send to congress (Why? Was probally a lot more positive then the reality.
P. S. The Argentine state also recieved a lot of cash from about 1 million people switching from a AFJP pension fund to a state fund, but that won't be there next season.
Rockin Bob
10-25-07, 14:00
Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today:
Economic Reckoning Looms.
In Argentina's Election
Thomaso276
10-25-07, 20:39
Here is the link to WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119327033336170614.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
Great story.
From Bloomberg:
Argentine Bonds Devastated by Rigged Data Suspicion, Fernandez.
By Lester Pimentel.
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The widespread suspicion that the government of President Nestor Kirchner has manipulated inflation data and the likelihood that his wife Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will succeed him are transforming the Argentine bond market into a financial bloodbath.
Argentina's benchmark inflation-linked bonds have tumbled 24 percent this year, making the country's debt market the worst performer in the world, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. And Bloomberg.
Polls show that Fernandez is the front-runner to replace Kirchner in next week's elections. She rebuts claims by government statisticians that Kirchner's administration forced them to tamper with consumer price data to hide the extent of inflation. Merrill Lynch & Co. The world's biggest brokerage, estimates prices may be rising at a 17 percent annual pace, double the official rate.
'Argentine inflation-linked debt is the single worst long- term asset in all of emerging-markets,'' said Paul McNamara, who manages more than $1 billion of fixed-income at London-based Augustus Asset Managers. He sold his holdings of the securities when government workers said in February that they were told to eliminate prices from the index.
About 40 percent of the nation's $136 billion debt is inflation-based securities, whose principal rises and falls with the consumer price index. Bondholders have lost out on $250 million in interest payments this year, Merrill Lynch estimates. By reducing the official rate, the government will save $5 billion in principal payments at maturity, data from the New York-based firm show.
Investor Distrust.
The complaints of tampering by the biggest union representing employees at the National Statistics Institute, known as INDEC, are creating more investor distrust of a country that forced creditors to take a 70 percent loss when it restructured $95 billion of defaulted debt in 2005.
Daniel Fazio, head of the employee union, said in February that a Kirchner political appointee had statisticians eliminate some details from the index and violate secrecy laws that prohibit the release of information during the data-gathering process. The union said federal prosecutor Carlos Stornelli is investigating the allegations. The prosecutor's office has declined to comment.
Yields on the 5.83 percent peso bonds due in 2033, the most traded of the government's inflation-linked debt, have surged almost 2.5 percentage points since February to 8 percent, according to Banco Mariva.
Argentine dollar securities yield 3.79 percentage points more than U. S. Treasuries of similar maturity, almost double the average 2.02 percentage-point gap on emerging-market debt, according to New York-based JPMorgan.
'Perfect' Data.
Kirchner, 57, defends the data. He blamed international investors in a July 26 speech in Buenos Aires for casting doubt on the figures in an attempt to 'get higher profits.'' He called the consumer price index 'perfect'' on Oct. 5, and said opposition parties are trying to erode the government's credibility ahead of the elections.
Three days later, Fernandez, 54, told Buenos Aires business leaders that inflation 'is in no terms'' being manipulated and that bondholders were trying to pressure the government into reporting a higher rate.
'She has not made any direct statements that would lead you to the conclusion that she will do things differently from Nestor,'' said David Bessey, who oversees more than $7 billion of emerging-market debt, including Argentine bonds, at Prudential Financial Inc. In Newark, New Jersey.
Lost Credibility.
Fernandez, a two-term senator, leads presidential candidates with 43 percent of voters saying they support her, according to polling company Ricardo Rouvier & Asociados. Her closest competitor in the Oct. 28 election, former congresswoman Elisa Carrio, is 26 percentage points behind. Rouvier surveyed 1,200 people from Oct. 12-18 for the poll, which has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Fernandez said last month she will modernize the consumer price index, swapping outdated products for newer ones. That won't be enough to restore confidence, said Tomasz Stadnik, who manages $3.1 billion of emerging-markets debt at London-based ABN Amro Asset Management Services.
'The problem is the credibility of the change,'' Stadnik said. 'INDEC has lost its credibility.''
Inflation is about double the official 8.6 percent rate, the result of a 35 percent jump in government spending this year, according to New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The rate may climb to 25 percent by year-end, Merrill Lynch says.
Rate Gap.
Investors point to a breakdown in the relationship between price rises in Buenos Aires, the province that the government uses to gauge nationwide consumer prices, and Mendoza province as evidence that Kirchner's numbers are too low.
In the 10 years through 2006, annual inflation in Mendoza, a wine-producing region located in the foothills of the Andes, was on average 0.4 percentage point higher than in Buenos Aires, government data suggest. That gap swelled to 9.2 percentage points in the first seven months of 2007.
Polls show most Argentines say consumer price increases are accelerating, a concern for people who lived through inflation of as high as 20,000 percent in the 1990s. Kirchner pressed grocers this month into cutting some prices by 5 percent through December.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lester Pimentel in New York at lpimentel1@bloomberg. Net
Last Updated: October 26, 2007 00:01 EDT
Here is the link to WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119327033336170614.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
Great story.
Here is another story with a slightly different perspective:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10c30666-8327-11dc-b042-0000779fd2ac.html
Questions, if the peso is allowed to "appreciate" what are the implications for foreigners visiting or living in Argentina? What will happen to real estate prices?
Suerte
Here is another story with a slightly different perspective:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/10c30666-8327-11dc-b042-0000779fd2ac.html
Questions, if the peso is allowed to "appreciate" what are the implications for foreigners visiting or living in Argentina? What will happen to real estate prices?
SuerteI am not an expert in economics but my guess is that what happened in Brasil will be repeated here. That is less visitors. Many europeans are rediscovering Thailand and they are turning their backs to Brasil. It is way much cheaper and safer there.
With regard to real estate, although prices are in $USD, if they eventually are getting less pesos then they will ask for more dollars.
In Brasil prices are in Reais. Prices have gone up and the reais is much stronger so very few foreigners are buying.
Actually both foreigners and locals are trying to get rid of their properties especially the "flats". The ones that are part of an apart hotel but privately owned. The monthly condominium fees of 500-600 reais make them expensive to maintain.
El Greco
The peso has been in a downward trend since 2001 and no end in sight. I think it's not worthwhile to talk about a stronger Peso.
I would think that somewhere in the next 2 years the amount of foreigners that visit Argentina will go down even though the number of Brazilians will continue to increase.
The most foreigners are spending a lot and helping to maintain the consumer spending-boom (buying electronics, clothes, etc) Things are still pretty cheap in Argentina
For your information, when I left France yesterday, as they were speaking of the probable election of president Kirschner's wife as they said, they talked of an yearly inflation scheduled for 2007 of 15 to 20%. So I wonder how strong the peso can be with such inflation.
Actually if prices stay high, this is actually sustainable. If they don't Argentina is in a world of hurt, but not because of the high export taxes.
Cristina is in a difficult situation off course. Everybody wants more cash, the 2001 excuse is not valid anymore and Argentina needs to have a big fiscal trade surplus. Imports are raising, the middle class can't afford higher taxes so that basically jut leaves the export tax to be raised.
It would be better if she made other decisions, but it's understandable
I would like to read this one in it's entirety.
Thanks,
Bob
You could Search BA Herald's editorials or The World Economic Forum.I do not currently subscribe to the BA Herald on line.
Thanks,
Bob
I think you don't need to be a member to read the editorials.
Prices of appartment in Zona Norte up 17% for new appartments, 23% for older appartments in the last year. Also 13% less appartments on the market.
It seems that at least in Zona Norte the housing bubble is not at it's end.
Report is from UADE
Stock Investors Should Avoid Argentina, Deutsche Bank Advises.
By James Attwood.
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG said investors shouldn't own any stocks in Argentina, which is the best performer this year among the world's 20 biggest equity markets.
'We continue to recommend a zero weight in Argentine equities,'' analyst Guilherme Paiva wrote in a report today. He cited the 'low'' level of investment in the economy, inflation and the government's 'unorthodox policies'' such as price controls.
The nation's Merval Index lost 3.5 percent in 2008 as of 10:05 am in New York, beating benchmarks in the 19 other largest nations by stock-market value.
You are also the same guy that predicted the Euro had peaked.
There is not enough supply of soy, grains and almost all agriculture products to feed the world and make biofuels.
Unless there is a serious economic crash prices will stay high on the short and middle range time frame.
You will probally start an insult again as nobody has ever teached you to debate.
January 24, 2008 - 1
Copyright © 2008 Earth Policy Institute.
Why Ethanol Production Will Drive World Food Prices Even Higher in 2008
A University of Illinois economics team calculates that with oil at $50 a barrel, it is profitable—with the ethanol subsidy of 51¢ a gallon (equal to $1.43 per bushel of corn)—to convert corn into ethanol as long as the price is below $4 a bushel. But with oil at $100 a barrel, distillers can pay more than $7 a bushel for corn and still break even. If oil climbs to $140, distillers can pay $10 a bushel for corn—double the early 2008 price of $5 per bushel.
Copyright © 2008 Earth Policy InstituteThe U. S., which makes ethanol from corn, imposes an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon on Brazilian supplies and there is a federal 51- cent-per gallon excise tax credit that refiners receive for meeting the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandate.
So Corn based ethanol get 54 + 51 cent = 105 subsidies, that why corn prices are so high. And since farmers can choose to plant corn or something else, it makes other crops go up too. Corn based ethanol does not give much of an energy gain, some people even say its negative, since it cannot be piped, but must be transported by rail, or truck, which use energy. It's a ripe off, set up by mostly Senator form farm states, to help out there voters. Sugar cane is viable though.
That said, it does not mean, farm commodities prices won't come down. They probably will over the short term. If you are long corn or wheat futures, you can have you head handed to you. Another reason the commodities are so high is there has been droughts in Australia and a few other places. As well as the weakening dollar. Part of Australia has had better rain, lately then last year, the other half has not.
The U. S. Which makes ethanol from corn, imposes an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon on Brazilian supplies and there is a federal 51- cent-per gallon excise tax credit that refiners receive for meeting the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandate.
So Corn based ethanol get 54 + 51 cent = 105 subsidies, that why corn prices are so high. And since farmers can choose to plant corn or something else, it makes other crops go up too. Corn based ethanol does not give much of an energy gain, some people even say its negative, since it cannot be piped, but must be transported by rail, or truck, which use energy. It's a ripe off, set up by mostly Senator form farm states, to help out there voters. Sugar cane is viable though.
That said, it does not mean, farm commodities prices won't come down. They probably will over the short term. If you are long corn or wheat futures, you can have you head handed to you. Another reason the commodities are so high is there has been droughts in Australia and a few other places. As well as the weakening dollar. Part of Australia has had better rain, lately then last year, the other half has not.A drought in Australia is not a good thing? Argentina has atleast since the devaluation been able to raise production, and they are a country with very few natural disasters and favorable climate, so they will probally continue to do so.
And I think if the USA (and Europe) uses corn to produce biofuels this will be positive for worldprices of corn
A drought in Australia is not a good thing? Argentina has atleast since the devaluation been able to raise production, and they are a country with very few natural disasters and favorable climate, so they will probally continue to do so.
And I think if the USA (and Europe) uses corn to produce biofuels this will be positive for worldprices of cornThere are long-term trends, and short-term stuff. Right now it looks like a pull back across commodities across the board. On Monday it might or might not go down, but I guess by weeks end, Commodities will be lower, or I am going to loose some serious money. If you are long futures, it counts; the short term can wipe you out, even if your holding futures that do not expire until next crop cycle.
There are long-term trends, and short-term stuff. Right now it looks like a pull back across commodities across the board. On Monday it might or might not go down, but I guess by weeks end, Commodities will be lower, or I am going to loose some serious money. If you are long futures, it counts; the short term can wipe you out, even if your holding futures that do not expire until next crop cycle.In a time like this there will be very fluctutations offcourse, good for you prolly to make some serious money but if I was Cristina I would rather worry about:
Inflation.
Farmers strike.
Lack of industry.
Lack of R & D.
Lack of investment.
Dependence on Bolivia on gas imports.
Lack of hydro carbons.
Foreign debt.
I don't think that Argentina should worry a lot about the price for commoties, the stocks of most crops are on a all-time low, the USA and EU are going to convert a serious amount of crops into biofuel, the world population is growing and Argentina does have very few natural disasters
Dependence on Bolivia on gas imports.. And cocaine
Still confident?I am short oil not ag. I am using puts on the USO, instead of the futures. With the move in the last few days, I am making money. Reason I said that, was that metal, ag, and oil have been moving together. I plan to sell out of the April puts, and buy the July puts, if oil pulls back another dollar or 2. I prefer to use the ETF that tracks oil, instead of the Future, since I cannot get a margin call, if I am wrong. Ag is being affected by weather and what going on with the Argentina farmers strike. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aLe.Rs8o2SHc&refer=commodities
I am confident oil will pull back, since there are no shortages, but the question is when, that why I want to switch out of the April put, and buy they Julys.
Thanks for your explanation, hopefully you will do ok.
I do think that most argiculture products will stay high unless there is a major recession that also drags Europe and far East down.
Thanks for your explanation, hopefully you will do ok.
I do think that most argiculture products will stay high unless there is a major recession that also drags Europe and far East down.I think ag will stay high, compared to a few years ago. The reason is China and India. As well as bio fuels. But that does not mean that it cannot drop from where it is here. Agricultural commodity are up over 56% this year, it could pull back 20% and still be very high, compared to the passed prices. I have a feeling it will pull back.
Even with the pull back, Argentina should do ok, since prices are very high compared to historic prices. Argentina has had a gift, with these high ag prices. If not, it's economy would be in trouble. This gov. Likes to micro manages the economy too much, which impedes growth. But they been lucky with ag prices so high.
That was my orignal point as well. If it comes down to argiculture, Argentina is well positioned.
=============================================
Okay Redondo,
You've been getting too chatty lately, so your next post must be a first hand narrative of an experience you had with a working girl here in BsAs.
Thanks,
Jackson
Looking at TN, Cristina and Argentina probally find a way to shoot themselves in the foodSoybeans in Chicago Rise Trading Limit on Argentina Protest.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ag9PRDGbWREI&refer=commodities
If farmers plant fewer crops in protest, then they will shoot themselves in the foot.
Soybeans in Chicago Rise Trading Limit on Argentina Protest.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ag9PRDGbWREI&refer=commodities
If farmers plant fewer crops in protest, then they will shoot themselves in the foot.They won't but government will roll back taxes.
=============================================
Okay Redondo,
You've been getting too chatty lately, so your next post must be a first hand narrative of an experience you had with a working girl here in BsAs.
Thanks,
Jackson
They won't but government will roll back taxes.
=============================================
Okay Redondo,
You've been getting too chatty lately, so your next post must be a first hand narrative of an experience you had with a working girl here in BsAs.
Thanks,
JacksonRedondo will present his on-going "first hand experience" with the escort "Maria Palma" (Mary Palm)
La construcción creció 11,5 por ciento en marzo.
Es según el índice Construya, que cuantifica la evolución mensual del sector según la comercialización de los insumos. De esta manera, subió 2,78 por ciento respecto del mes de febrero último.
La construcción creció 11,5 por ciento en marzo.
Imprimir.
Enviar a un amigo.
Aumentar - Reducir tipografía.
La actividad del sector de la construcción, medida según la comercialización de sus insumos, creció en el mes de marzo 11,5 por ciento de manera interanual why subió 2,78 por ciento respecto del mes de febrero último, según el índice Construya difundido hoy.
El índice Construya cuantifica la evolución mensual del sector a través del accionar de las compañías que conforman la asociación del mismo nombre.
El grupo Construya se creó en el año 2002 why reúne a las empresa Grupo Later-Cer, Cerámica Quilmes, Sherwin Williams, FV, Loma Negra, Cerro Negro, Klaukol, Aluar, Acer Brag, Plavicon, El Milagro, Ferrum, Durlock, Masisa why Dema-Aqua System.
Source: Canal 26
Seems like the construction boom is lasting for a while more.
11% growth in the construction sector from febuary untill march
Had an interesting discussion on Tuesday night with one of the senior Argentinian managers of Amway. For the uninitiated, this is a USA outfit out of Michigan that sells cleaning and personal hygiene products by direct marketing. Operate in all the western world and now in the asian markets. In fact China is their number two market.
Since the 'corralito' of 2001/2, they have been contracting the manufacture of their products to local factories. They now have just-on completed a reverse and are back to sourcing their products out of Michigan. The reason: solely price.
For me this is unbelievable. It is cheaper to ship product produced in the USA to Argentina, go through the bullshit associated with all that Argentinian Customs can throw at you, pay 50% duty plus 21% IVA and still be less than the local cost. This is precisely one of the reasons for the complete collapse of what little manufacturing that did take place before 1995. Imports were cheaper.
Another note on a similiar vein. I have just been in Peru for a few days. Men's shoes there are about 30% of Argentinian prices and of a similiar quality. The shoe industry in Argentina collapsed as far as manufacturing, in the mid 1990's and really only got going again in 2003. If what is true of soap, despite the 50% tarif, is true of all manufacturing, and the shoe comparison is indicating that, industrial Argentina is about to hit a brick wall.
Internal inflation without subsequent adjustments in exchange rates, is a deadly virus in an economy. Eventually the internal wages are so huge that the only industries that can survive are those that are oriented towards services for the local population. So manufacturing, foreign in-bound tourism, ie. Mongering; and all external oriented products including agriculture becomes unprofitable. And it looks like it is just on the cusp of happening.
So despite Jackson's mantra of 'all of a sudden, my favouite place for pussy became a third of the price', as we all know, the cost has since doubled and shows no sign of tapering off.
Hang on!
Argento
It was especially bad here last night. Riding up the Avenida de Julio I could see it thick in the air. The taxi I was in did not know why it was so smoky. This morning from the top of the building here I can still smell it outside and see it. What the heck it it. Anyone know. Do all the peasants burn wood at home to eat and heat water or what!
So despite Jackson's mantra of 'all of a sudden, my favouite place for pussy became a third of the price'That statement was accurate back in 2002 when I made the evaluation. Now, my assessment is that is costs the same to live in BA as it does in any mid-size city in the USA.
Thanks,
Jackson
Water, gas, electricity, public transport, health care, long term rents, taxi, maid service, telecomunicating, internet are all cheaper
Water, gas, electricity, public transport, health care, long term rents, taxi, maid service, telecomunicating, internet are all cheaperI would add food to that list also.
However, electronics, cars, and quality clothing are as much if not more.
That statement was accurate back in 2002 when I made the evaluation. Now, my assessment is that is costs the same to live in BA as it does in any mid-size city in the USA.
Thanks,
JacksonI couched your mantra in the past tense. I didn't mean that you were expousing that now. Comparisons are interesting in South America. Per capita Gross Domestic Product for Argentina, Chile and Peru are within U$1000 of each other. Argentina is still marginally cheaper for food than Chile but the quality offered here, meat excepted, is very poor quality. And even the meat is very poorly presented. By the time you trim or throw out the damaged fruit and vegetables here, the price difference would be zilch, the quality and freshness (or should I say the staleness of Argentine produce) much inferior. In comparison, the quality and range of fresh, raw food in Peru is outstanding and half the Argentine price. Pity about the way they destroy it, cebiche apart, when you buy it in the majority of eating houses. The meat, chicken very ordinary; the fish when fresh looks great, but they have never heard of ice or refrigeration. Sashimi, forget it. You would need to be a magician to get it presentable. Quantity before quality is the guiding star.
I would add food to that list also.
However, electronics, cars, and quality clothing are as much if not more.But that is not really related to cost of living. And if you fly back home once or twice a year you can buy most stuff in the USA.
Going out in general is cheaper as well, air travel is probally more expensive (if you are not a citizen)
quality clothing are as much if not more.I paid about 600 dollars for a Daniel Hector suit, tie, leather shoes and leather belt. I can't comment on the quality yet but the same would be about double in Europe.
''To prevent anything untoward from happening between now and 2011, K's need to stop inflation, acquire sufficient energy, placate the angry farmers, and change C's image. These seem impossible. K 's are so used to getting their way that they react negatively towards any opposition! There are never negotiations. How will they act if much of the country turns against them?''2011 is just a short time and if the world keep on favoring Argentina with high prices there will be little problems
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Another Argentina Default?
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez visits a textile cooperative in Jujuy (top) recently and talks with her economy minister, Carlos Fernandez, on Monday (above) (Photos: Argentine President's Office)
Will Argentina default on its debt for the second time in a decade? Three experts share their insight.
BY LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR.
Inter-American Dialogue.
Since Argentine President Cristina Fernandez took office in December, Argentine bonds have fallen 19 percent, increasing speculation that the country could default on its debt for the second time in a decade. Do you think Argentina will default? What must Argentina do to minimize the risk of default?
Miguel Kiguel, Executive Director of EconViews and a former Undersecretary of Finance and Chief Advisor to the Minister of Economy in Argentina: In recent weeks investors have become more concerned about the possibility of a new Argentine default. One critical question is whether these concerns reflect a deterioration in the economic fundamentals, e. G. In the ability to pay, or if instead they are related to a perception that there is less willingness to pay. The financial requirements for this year are only $3.5 billion, a figure that the government can easily raise in the local market. Perhaps the concerns reflect the roughly $10 billion that the government needs for 2009. However, our estimates indicate that it can raise around $5 billion from domestic institutional investors and in a worse-case scenario there is room under current legislation to obtain around $2.5 billion in temporary advances from the Central Bank. Of course, one can get worried about 2010, but to be honest the problem is not the capacity to pay but the perceived willingness to pay. Using almost any measure of creditworthiness, Argentina should be able to meet its financial obligations in coming years. The risks appear in extreme scenarios where Argentina has no access whatsoever to the financial markets for a prolonged period. While the risk of default is not nil, the economic fundamentals are still in good shape, and the spreads appear to have overreacted. They are primarily driven by an intense negative mood that was generated by the manipulation of the official inflation rate and by the stubborn position that the government has taken in the negotiations with farmers. While the rigid attitude could prevail for some time, and hence the spreads could remain high during that period, we expect that the political system will eventually work and that the country will again access international financial markets. It's the politics this time, and the problem is that investors understand the evolution of economic crises much better than political ones.
Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and former Head of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund: Argentina's debt has been growing steadily since the country's authorities reached a deal with bondholders in 2005. At present, the debt of the public sector is at about the same level as before the 2001 default, at some $150 billion. Seen from that perspective, there may be serious questions about the sustainability of external indebtedness. However, circumstances are considerably different than they were seven years ago, even as there are serious problems of economic management in other areas. First and foremost, Argentina was able to restructure debt equivalent to about one-third of the total stock outstanding at very favorable terms, specifically a 40-year maturity and low interest rates. In addition, the country has reduced its debt obligations with international financial institutions, like the IMF and the World Bank, and has replaced them with expensive but long-term loans from Venezuela, and also with domestic issuances, that tend to be more stable. Furthermore, Argentina is still recording a trade surplus, reasonably strong (although weakening) public finances, and high levels of international reserves, while the debt burden as a proportion of GDP has been declining and is now at a level equivalent to 50 percent of GDP, well below the 150 percent observed in 2002. Under these conditions it is unlikely that the government considers itself in a situation close to default. Nonetheless, if conditions deteriorate the authorities may be tempted, against good judgment, to move in the direction of a default, although not in the near future.
Vladimir Werning, Vice President at JP Morgan Chase & Co.: The market is braced for a 35 percent probability of a default on hard currency debt considering the 620 basis point (bp) spread over swaps on five-year Argentine CDS contracts. And bonds are trading even cheaper: five-year dollar debt is priced at a spread of 950 bp above US Treasuries, and inflation-linked peso debt trades at a real spread of 1230 bp above US TIPs. While Argentina has ample capacity to pay its debt, market prices are reflecting investor doubts over its willingness to do so for good reasons. The market doubts arise because authorities have 1) hit a budget constraint but eluded the opportunities to reconcile differences over tax policy with farmers; 2) systematically postponed a conventional policy response to high and rising inflation; 3) discarded the use of reliable macro statistics in a way that suggests disinterest in confronting economic reality that entails political and financial costs; 4) repeatedly sacrificed economy ministers that offered ideas that moderately deviated from the policy status quo; and 5) increasingly regulated and segmented goods and financial markets with a mind to controlling the price discovery mechanism, to mention a few issues. The market is also concerned that authorities do not realize that their reliance on market financing is greater than acknowledged: for instance, in 2008 given $5.7 billion of amortizations to private creditors and $3 billion of issuance in the market alongside $6.5 billion of interest indexation and capitalization, Argentine risk held by investors is rising by about $4 billion on a net basis. While local pension fund capacity to fully absorb Treasury debt issuance in 2008 is comforting, higher issuance requirements in 2009 raise market concerns. Of course, with $50 billion in Central Bank reserves, a $12 billion trade surplus, and 3.8 percent of GDP primary surplus, Argentina has a lot of insurance it can tap in order to survive outside the market for a long period of time. Yet this is of limited comfort to investors who require that the credits they invest in not only have contingent strategies during times of financial stress but also an inclination and a strategy to come back to the market to secure minimum financing over a reasonable timeframe—which is what Argentina currently lacks.
Christina says that poverty is declining. INDEC+Christina say inflation is 8%! Other authoritative reports believe inflation is 30%! Who to believe?The government says it has an $869 million dollar budget surplus this year, as tax income rose by more than 50 percent. Also that the central bank holds about 50 billion US dollars in reserves. They spent about a billion holding the peso, so it probably 49 now.
With these large budget surpluses, why is the governments dept load going up? It make no sense. I agree with Sidney, this gov is lying about inflation, so it can pay less on inflation-protected bonds, thereby stealing money from people who brought those bonds. Its lying about the poverties figures, since the gov. Calculates the poverty figure using 8% inflation. If you assume 20% inflation, poverty is way up in Argentina. Inflation is more like 30%, anyone who been here a while can see it. so Poverty is Way up.
So if the gov has such a large surplus, why is the dept load going up where is the money going? Anyone know? Or is it a lie?
Also with the Farm strike, gov income going to go down. Does not look good as of today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is from Bloomberg.
Soybeans Surge After Argentina Farm Talks End Without Tax Deal.
By Jeff Wilson.
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose the most in two weeks after Argentine farm leaders said negotiations with the government failed to end a two-month dispute over export taxes, raising demand prospects for dwindling U. S. Inventories.
'The meeting went badly,'' Eduardo Buzzi, president of the Agrarian Federation, told reporters after the talks in Buenos Aires. Buzzi said the outcome of yesterday's meeting makes it harder to continue talks and he called for a strong showing at a rally this weekend. U. S. Inventories before the harvest are forecast to plunge 75 percent from a year earlier.
'The failure to resolve the ongoing dispute between Argentinean farmers and the government is likely to prove supportive for soybean prices,'' investment bank Barclays Capital said today in a report to clients. 'This was the second time since March that both parties have tried to resolve the crisis, but have arrived at no amicable solution.''
Soybean futures for July delivery rose 38.25 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $13.63 a bushel at 10:33 a. M. On the Chicago Board of Trade. A close at that price would be the biggest gain for a most-active contract since May 9. The contract is still down 1.1 percent for the week.
Most-active futures before today had risen 67 percent in the past year and touched a record $15.865 on March 3.
Roads Blocked.
The failure of the talks in Argentina threatens to worsen a dispute in which farmers blocked roads and withheld supplies, causing food shortages and halting grain exports. The country is the third-largest exporter of soybeans behind the U. S. And Brazil and the biggest shipper of vegetable oil and animal feed made from the oilseed.
Farmers and opposition leaders will rally in the agricultural city of Rosario on May 25, the same day President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner holds a rally celebrating the anniversary of the revolution that led to Argentina's independence from Spain.
Argentine production of soybean pellets, used as animal feed, slipped 50 percent to about 904,700 tons in March from 1.82 million tons a year earlier, government data show. Soybean- oil production plunged 51 percent to about 225,800 tons from 457,200 tons a year earlier.
Soybean and soybean-product exports are rising because overseas buyers are shifting to U. S. Supplies rather than hope shipments from Argentina won't be disrupted, said Jerry Gidel, a market analyst for North American Risk Management Services Inc. In Chicago.
U. S. Exports.
U. S. Soybean-export sales from Sept. 1 to May 15 have climbed 3.6 percent to a record 29.47 million metric tons from a year earlier, USDA data show. Sales of U. S. Soybean oil from Oct. 1 to May 5 have doubled, and sales of animal feed made from soybeans are up 6.5 percent.
Soybean processors have converted 1.241 billion bushels of soybeans into animal feed and cooking oil since Sept. 1, up 2.7 percent from the same period a year earlier, Census data show. Soybean inventories at processing plants fell 13 percent at the end of April from a year earlier.
'People are worried the situation will get worse before it improves,'' Gidel said. 'There's a lot of uncertainty going into the weekend.''
Soybeans are the second-biggest U. S. Crop, valued last year at $26.8 billion, government figures show. Corn is the biggest, with a value of $52.1 billion in 2007.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg. Net.
Last Updated: May 23, 2008 11:39 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aUdZ0KdV7HGQ&refer=latin_america
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a_fcE2S.MK2g&refer=commodities
Argentina set to lose IMF loan.
DEBT-WRACKED Argentina is unlikely to receive a financial bail-out from the International Monetary Fund, sources said, leaving the country facing a possible return to hyperinflation and economic chaos.
A delegation from the IMF has just arrived in Argentina to decide whether to grant the country fresh aid, but fund sources said the £7 billion remaining under an existing but frozen £15bn loan package would not be released.
Instead, Argentina would only receive enough financing to pay back what it already owes the Washington-based lender this year - about £3.5bn.
"What they have to do, they can do it alone," one source at the IMF said, "This is a case where what they need is adjustment, it is not financing. This is for their own good and they should understand that."
Before the IMF team arrived, hopes had been high in Argentina that the talks would lead to the resumption of international aid after the IMF froze funds in December after the country failed to keep spending in check.
But the IMF sources said the talks were more concerned with ways to build a foundation for a credible economic platform.
The toll of the economic crisis on Argentina has been heavy. Since December, the government has fallen after riots left 27 dead and the economy has ground to a standstill.
Rock Harders
05-27-08, 20:12
Mongers-
This article must be from late 2001, it is way outdated, this guy who posted this must be a jackass. Argentina paid off the IMF completely about two years ago so they would not have to answer to them anymore.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Argentina set to lose IMF loan.
DEBT-WRACKED Argentina is unlikely to receive a financial bail-out from the International Monetary Fund, sources said, leaving the country facing a possible return to hyperinflation and economic chaos.
A delegation from the IMF has just arrived in Argentina to decide whether to grant the country fresh aid, but fund sources said the £7 billion remaining under an existing but frozen £15bn loan package would not be released.
Instead, Argentina would only receive enough financing to pay back what it already owes the Washington-based lender this year - about £3.5bn.
"What they have to do, they can do it alone," one source at the IMF said, "This is a case where what they need is adjustment, it is not financing. This is for their own good and they should understand that."
Before the IMF team arrived, hopes had been high in Argentina that the talks would lead to the resumption of international aid after the IMF froze funds in December after the country failed to keep spending in check.
But the IMF sources said the talks were more concerned with ways to build a foundation for a credible economic platform.
The toll of the economic crisis on Argentina has been heavy. Since December, the government has fallen after riots left 27 dead and the economy has ground to a standstill.Found the article, it was on google news, as a new story. But if you go to the bottom of the page, it says Last Updated: 05 April 2002 12:00 AM. Think google fuck up. If this stuff where for real, there should be hundeds of articles on it, but this is the only one.
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/business/Argentina-set-to-lose-IMF.2315839.jp
Tue, May 27 2008, 21:03 GMT.
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Argentina Central Bank Firms Bonds, Peso; Stocks Down On Oil
By Drew Benson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine Central Bank apparently intervened in local markets Tuesday to buy bonds and sell dollars in a bid to firm up the peso and debt prices as it was unclear what the next step would be regarding stalled farm talks, traders said.
A central bank spokesman said he wouldn't have information about the day's apparent intervention until later Tuesday.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=7ce59972-88b6-4b7c-9a73-77174702e247
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's farmers will stop selling crops and livestock until next week in the third protest in two months over export taxes, after the government canceled talks.
Farmers will start withholding newly harvested corn and soybeans today, and livestock producers will stop sending cattle to slaughterhouses tomorrow, Mario Llambias, president of the Argentine Rural Confederation, said yesterday at a press conference in Buenos Aires. The sales disruptions are slated to end June 2, he said.
Protesters will also prevent trucks carrying grain to export terminals and disrupt domestic livestock and meat shipments, Llambias said. Blockades in March led to food shortages and increased consumer prices. The government called off talks May 26, a day after farm leaders threatened new protests during a rally by more than 300,000 supporters in the port town of Rosario, 300 kilometers (188 miles) north of Buenos Aires.
Full article
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ah7tYabavqjg&refer=latin_america
Tessan,
Thank You for your posts.
They're very informative.
Exon
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine central bank apparently intervened once again in local markets Wednesday to buy bonds and sell dollars in a bid to firm up debt prices and the peso, which reached its strongest point against the dollar since July of last year, traders said.
The monetary authority flexed its muscles as markets were relatively calm, a day after farm leaders launched their third strike since March to protest a soy export tax hike.
The central bank, by selling an estimated $70 million in the local spot foreign exchange market, helped firm the peso a full centavo on the day to ARS3.1175. The monetary authority had less influence on the local benchmark Discount bond in pesos, however, with its price ending just 0.46% higher at ARS98.75, with a yield of 10.74%.
"It looks like the central bank was again buying Discounts since the volume was very heavy for a second straight day," said local analyst Javier Salvucci of Silver Cloud Advisors. "But it barely moved, so that means there are also a lot of people selling Discounts," he added.
In the local foreign exchange market, cereal exporters also helped firm the peso as they repatriated overseas dollar earnings, one currency trader said. Steady central bank intervention has helped the peso gain seven centavos against the dollar since the currency hit a five-year low amid farm-crisis worry on April 22.
At this point, "the only explanation for continued (dollar) selling is a show of power" on the part of the central bank, the currency trader said. "There are some operators in the market who think the government is trying to show the farm sector what it can do - that it can take away the weak peso" that has favored cereal exporters since the 2002 devaluation, he said. "Of course, that goes against its model," he added.
On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the benchmark Merval Index edged 0.84% higher to 2,233.41 points. Volumes were low, as most investors stuck to the sidelines awaiting a clear signal as to where the farm crisis is headed, Salvucci said.
Merval heavyweight Tenaris (TS) a maker of steel tubes used in the oil industry, rose 1.75% to ARS98.50 in thin trading, while energy fund Pampa Holding (PAMP. BA) slid 0.51% to ARS1.92.
The farm crisis has undermined confidence in the Fernandez government, sparking a sell-off of Argentine debt and leading many Argentines to cash out peso bank accounts to buy dollars.
-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires.
May 28, 2008 17:09 ET (21:09 GMT)
Argentina restricts gas supplies to industry.
http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN2937849320080529
Argentina Caps Grain-Export Tax to End Farm Dispute (Update1)
``We hope this announcement puts an end to the conflict with farmers,'' said Fernandez in a press conference in Buenos Aires. ``We want farmers to keep producing.''
``The announcement is more of the same we had,'' said Luciano Miguens, president of the Rural Society, the country's biggest farm group. ``It's surprising that they didn't ask us for an opinion.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a.ObYUyt8l_I&refer=latin_america
This month the central bank has spent $1.4 billion to defend the peso, according to La Nación, a newspaper, and some money has left the banks. behind Ms Fernández stands her notoriously obstinate, and still popular, husband. In Rosario they seemed equally determined.
http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11465492
The Argentine central bank continued to intervene in local markets Thursday, firming the peso and local bonds as investors largely stuck to the sidelines to await a new direction in the almost three-month-old farm crisis.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=4c0d07cc-6886-48a8-899b-5abfdb9483eb
In a report Friday, Barclays Capital said it expects that the Argentina government's offer Thursday night to rework grain export taxes will weaken and splinter farm protests, despite initial farm leader rejection of the new measures.
That's because subsidies for small and medium farmers will make them less likely to protest as time goes on, while the planting season represents a time constraint.
"We find these arguments convincing enough to believe that, after the announcement of the government's proposal, the farmers' conflict will gradually dilute into non-disruptive demonstrations and media rhetoric," Barclays wrote.
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's Vice President Julio Cobos said the government needs to reschedule payments on about $6 billion of defaulted Paris Club debt in order to attract foreign investment and extend the country's economic recovery.
'We have to resolve the debt with the Paris Club,'' Cobos, 53, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. 'A resolution would help the country draw more investments.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRlEnvB95fhY&refer=news
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I will be surprised if people start jumping back into Argentina even if they do pay back some defaulted dept. There is a lot of dept that is in default that does not belong to the Paris Club. Plus there will still be a big lack of trust, the gov. can change it mind again.
I loaded a container yesterday that needed to be delivered by a set date. The Customs Service here, spent 2 weeks finding fault with all the documentation, which there was little to find and what there was of no consequence. Yesterday was the cut-off date to finalise the loading and during our previous discussions with Custom's Verification section, they became aware of the finite timing involved. Yesterday morning they demanded a cash payment of U$10,000 or else they would continue to delay the authorisation. Exactly the same amount as the value of the goods. No discussion. Pay or else! I paid the money and the money went into a cash box in their open office, the other 3 agents fully aware of what was going on. Papers signed as a matter of course and every thing was straight forward from then on. Normally such a payment would be at the most, ARG$1000 or at the most $2000. Now ARG$30,000. So it is almost becoming impossible to do business here. The twin bogies of inflation and corruption prevent it.
I was told nearly 20 years ago that Argentina would never change and I didn't believe it. I guess I was wrong.
In those 20 odd years, the infrastructure has deteriorated, education standards collapsed and the amount of Argentinos living in poverty doubled. Crime is just rampant and law enforcement a joke.
So what is the future?
Argento
Thomaso276
05-31-08, 23:53
You should bring a lawyer down there tommorrow and demand your money back or you will go to customs jeffe and then to the newspapers. If you had a witness with you at the time of the payoff, that should help.
Or go to your embassy and file a complaint.
Bring your cell phone and take pics of the thieves
So what is the future?
ArgentoSadly the answer is: more of the same!
Argentina's immigration history is heavily weighted in numbers and influence by Europeans. Apparently these immigrants (particularly the Italian component) have not chosen to leave one of their less flattering traits in the motherland - which is a real shame. Many immigrants to other countries have taken the opportunity to break with the past, leaving some of the impediments of their previous society behind. Don't believe it has happened this time.
I don't have any assets or liabilities here (balance sheet accounts) I only have revenue and expenses here (income statement accounts) I don't invest or borrow; I only earn and spend. Think about it.
Another way to state this is, I don't buy or borrow. I only earn and burn.
I don't have any assets or liabilities here (balance sheet accounts) I only have revenue and expenses here (income statement accounts) I don't invest or borrow; I only earn and spend. Think about it.
Another way to state this is, I don't buy or borrow. I only earn and burn.That sounds like the financial strategy employed by a lot of chicas I know.
That is true, for my income statement. But I have a healthy balance sheet in the US. But not all the chicas are totally bad with money. Dickhead's María has a paid-for house (she earned all the money herself); Romina from Catto's owns her own, paid for apartment, and another chica I know just sold her orchard and bought an apartment with a four-year mortgage and has it rented out at positive cash flow. But, she also got a pretty good sized gift for the down payment from some wealthy Danish diplomat she met hooking.
Of course these are the exceptions and not the rule. The general rule of chica financial management can be summed up with the popular phrase: "No tengo crédito."
You should bring a lawyer down there tommorrow and demand your money back or you will go to customs jeffe and then to the newspapers. If you had a witness with you at the time of the payoff, that should help.
Or go to your embassy and file a complaint.
Bring your cell phone and take pics of the thievesThe point that is not understood by people not involved in business here is that the money paid in coimas is distributed from the initial receivers all the way up the chain of command. Beginning of course with the direct boss and so on upwards to the political head of the department. And ultimately to the President. The only principle involved is "What is in it for me?" Each person gets their cut and there is no way out of the quandary. Any complaint would and is shrugged-off by the boss because he is a part of the distribution chain. Reform can only come down from the top and that has not changed in 200 years. Argentina became a city based on smuggling goods at its very beginning, with the customs service corrupt from that beginning.
The papers know the truth, print it, but it is water off a duck's back.
Politics here is only a way to stick your snout in the trough and get money. You never see or hear any of them wanting to enter politics to improve the morality and better the lives of the community at large. It is still class war stuff here as a diversion to the real game which is getting the money from the bribes. And all branches of government are involved. The executive, the administration, the military and law enforcement. Argentina is not so much a nation but a football team; and only if they are winning.
Argento
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