View Full Version : American Politics - Mar del Plata
MAR DEL PLATA, Argentina (Reuters) - Thousands of marchers on the streets of a heavily policed Argentine resort protested on Friday against you. S. President George W. Bush and his free-trade push as leaders from the Americas convened for a contentious debate on improving Latin America's economy.
The protesters' voice inside the summit meeting room will be Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the leftist leader who opposes Bush's economic model. He arrived early Friday vowing to stop the stalled Free Trade Area of the Americas or FTAA.
"I think we came here to bury FTAA. I brought my shovel," Chavez told reporters.
Chavez is due to speak at an alternative Peoples' Summit at midday before the two-day meeting of leaders begins in the afternoon.
A train sponsored by Chavez pulled in at dawn Friday carrying celebrity sympathizers including Argentine soccer legend Diego Maradona and joined busloads of university students, rights activists and labor-union members.
Marchers urged the region's leaders to pursue options to the you. S.-backed free-market recipes that dominated here in the 1990s, but failed to reduce poverty and inequality.
"We are here to show our proposals and alternatives to build a new dawn in Latin America," said Argentine Nobel Peace Prize winner and author Adolfo Perez Esquivel.
While protests were so far peaceful and kept far from the meeting's hotel, more radical groups were expected to challenge the several rings of police security in downtown Mar del Plata. A flotilla of coast-guard boats and helicopters patrolled the shore.
Schools and most businesses were closed. Shop windows were boarded up against possible violence and looting, while you. S. Interests like Citibank branches and Blockbuster video stores were armored with corrugated metal.
Outside of the Middle East, South America may be one of the most hostile places to you. S. Policies, despite Bush vows upon taking office that Latin America was a top-foreign policy priority. Many in the region feel Washington meddled too much in the past in economics and politics and then ignored the region to focus on the war on terror.
While the emerging markets of Asia roared ahead in the last 20 years, Latin America's economies, rich with minerals, gas and farmland, fell into a cycle of boom and bust.
Nowhere is that more evident than in summit host country Argentina, the model student in free-market policies that collapsed in 2001 under a burden of $100 billion in debt and saw a chunk of its middle class plunge toward poverty.
"Free trade means big you. S. And European corporations gobbling up our companies and national interests," said Pedro Moreira, a 69-year-old unemployed Argentine who carried a sign reading "Get out Bush. Another world is possible."
But Bush, who arrived in Mar del Plata late Thursday for his first visit to Argentina, had free trade at the top of his agenda. Washington hopes to anchor a commitment to revive talks for the FTAA in 2006 after opposition from Latin America's big economies over you. S. Agriculture subsidies stopped it from entering into force this year.
He comes to the meeting with Latin leaders with waning popularity at home.
For the first time in his presidency, a majority of Americans questioned President George W. Bush's personal integrity as his approval ratings on key issues fell to new lows in an ABC News / Washington Post poll published on Thursday.
OslersVoice
11-04-05, 15:18
How dare you call our American president a moron? That is an insult. It is an insult to morons everywhere. You need an IQ of at least 50 to be a moron:
www.webenet.com/iqclassifications.htm
The man is a fucking idiot.Not that I support this fucking idiot but most protesters also fall into that classifications.
And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?
OslersVoice
11-12-05, 14:21
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?Castro has the interests of his own country at heart too. But since he can't play nicely with the rest of the world, his country languishes in the 1950's.
OV,
I'm not a great fan of Castro, I've been to Cuba and the lack of freedom for the Cubans that I saw is pretty disgusting. But he does get on well with most of the world, (I'm talking about europe and latin america); its the US embargo that really fucks the economy.
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?Medical care and education for all citizens is very important.
Please can you clarify how Venezuela is a slave to the USA. Also how is Chavez fighting against this slavery? One of us has missed something here - I don't get it.
Thanks.
Makes sense to me.
I think he is stating that Venezuela isn't kissing the USA's ass just to get some trade or loans out of us, like so many other countries are.
Once you borrow money from the US, you are it's b_tch (damn software-the word here is a female dog!!).
The US controls the IMF (due to being its biggest contributor) and the IMF dictates how other countries operate if they want to borrow money from them (even though the biggest contributor-the US-doesn't follow its own dictates in regard to national debt and deficits) Hence, being a slave to the US.
Ask Argentina. Part of the reason for the economic crash of a few years ago was pressure from the IMF to alter it's economic methods as the IMF dictated, or else. No more dinero.
Suerte,
Stowe
The IMF doesn't "dictate" how other countries operate, but they do have guidelines for debtors like any bank does. The great thing about getting a 100 billion dollar loan from the IMF is that you can default on it, tell the bank to fuckoff, and send the money to your private Swiss bank account. Any other bank on the planet would rightly take possession of the debtors assets after such a default.
Argentina would have made a wonderful 51st state!
Bangkok Dave
11-12-05, 22:27
OV,
I'm not a great fan of Castro, I've been to Cuba and the lack of freedom for the Cubans that I saw is pretty disgusting. But he does get on well with most of the world, (I'm talking about europe and latin america); its the US embargo that really fucks the economy.No, it's the communist system and Castro that fucks the economy. How can an American embargo ruin the economy of another country? They can buy anything they want from every other country in the world. Castro calls it a blockade as if American war ships were lying off the coast of Cuba stopping every ship from entering. It's not a blockade, it's an EMBARGO, which means the United States does not trade with them. Suppose there was no United States, would Cuba be the same? Of course. Castro loves the embargo because it gives him someone to blame. Ask the Cubanos what they think of Castro in public, and then ask them in private. One lady actually cried when she was telling me what she thought. Latin America has a long history of dictators and Castro is one of the longer lasting ones.
Dave
OslersVoice
11-14-05, 18:06
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?MEXICO CITY, Mexico (AP) -- Venezuela called its ambassador to Mexico home Monday rather than apologize after President Hugo Chavez warned Mexican leader Vicente Fox: "Don't mess with me." Mexico responded by recalling its own diplomat.
*****************
Oh yea, a real charmer that Chavez!
May he should whip out his dick and get the contest over with.
Yes, Chavez goes out of his way to be an outcast. I thought that regardless of his views, participating in the anti-Cumbre / ALCA / Bush parade in MDP was totally unprofessional and completely undiplomatic, especially for a friggin head of state! A few months ago, he reportedly offered aid to the US during the hurricane Katrina aftermath as a prank. Nice. Yes, I know everybody hates Bush but I don't believe he wakes up everyday thinking "I really want to fuck up today and piss off another country". Maybe wrong though.
Probably not, but I do think that he wakes up every morning and thinks: "How can I steal from the middle clase and the poor and give to the rich." Sort of a reverse Robin Hood.
Stowe
Probably not, but I do think that he wakes up every morning and thinks: "How can I steal from the middle clase and the poor and give to the rich." Sort of a reverse Robin Hood. StoweAlso known as greed. Greed works, to quote Gordon Gecko. In an efficient country like the USA it does indeed work, and works wonders. People strive for personal gain in a system that justly rewards and promotes success, innovation, and growth. "Like an invisible hand", the benefits and success attained by the greedy people, who care only about themselves, are distributed throughout the economy and population, raising living standards and creating more jobs for everyone. Capitalism at its best.
In inefficient, highly corrupt countries like Argentina, greed simply takes money from the poor, the government, and the IMF and sends it to Switzerland. Thats Latin American capitalism. Capitalism doesnt work here - never has and I doubt it ever will. Exception - Chile has its shit together though.
Nibu Raphael
03-24-06, 18:11
I Came There Before Bush Was There. Yes People even Hate Him More Now in South America thats for sure.
Nibu Raphael
04-18-06, 17:39
Are people still pissed at that visit that happened with Bush awhile back? Is Kirchner still tightening his alliance with Chavez and Evo Morales? How long will it still take for Argentina and even Venezuela to get back on there feet? I mean fucking Lula has done it nowadays with the dollar 2 to 1 against the real. Yes guys I was in MDP once. That still sucks that Bush had to come spout his evil there. Tell him to stay the fuck out of there and in South America. Now I heard Bush wants an army base in Pargauy by the Bolivian border. Why? To come and attack Evo morales. That prick also wants to nuke Iran. Shit we live in some crazy times now.
I was in Mar del Plata the weekend before Bush came and also a few weeks after. I didn't notice any differnece. They were doing a lot of preperations at the Sheraton etc by there that that no big del suopposedly no one could be buried at the cemetary 10 days before Bush and CIA arrived due to security / bomb consideration. Also they had tunnels dug for a secret escape in case of attack, all the security dudes got sick at the Shearaton due to food poisiioning also I saw some gmen walking around in shades and also saw some c5 military cargo planes landing. These things are huge man. I asked some of the airforce crew about what was going in the MDP airport on but they weren't very frienfly. They fly down from USA 12 hours, drop the cargo and fly back 40 minutes later.
At my hotel there were some us reporters scoping out the breakfast area, imperalist pigs. I wathced the protests on tv and also saw that idiot Chavez making a speech. Whats up with all these people hating Bush and America? I don't get it, but the pussy was still good before and after Bushes visit. Also, I went out to some clubs there. Lots of fun. From what I heard, Bush's visit was good for the local economy because it put a spotlight in MDP and more people are going there for conventions now etc. It will be intersting to see how this new prsident of Chile bacehlrt aligns herself. Will it be with Chavez and Lula or with Bush. I don't know anybody's guess. I get laid more down there since Bush visted.
Nibu Raphael
04-18-06, 20:08
Whats Wrong with bush? OH My Gosh. And Chavez is The Bad Devil. And Bush And His Father Never Called in for a New World Order. And The Taliban And The Tooth Fairy Drove those Planes in to THE WTC. Wake up Roger. OOOPS I Am Now Thinking your Roger Moore As I Have Sinked to your level.
I was in Mar del Plata the weekend before Bush came and also a few weeks after. I didn't notice any differnece. They were doing a lot of preperations at the Sheraton etc by there that that no big del suopposedly no one could be buried at the cemetary 10 days before Bush and CIA arrived due to security / bomb consideration. Also they had tunnels dug for a secret escape in case of attack, all the security dudes got sick at the Shearaton due to food poisiioning also I saw some gmen walking around in shades and also saw some c5 military cargo planes landing. These things are huge man. I asked some of the airforce crew about what was going in the MDP airport on but they weren't very frienfly. They fly down from USA 12 hours, drop the cargo and fly back 40 minutes later.
At my hotel there were some us reporters scoping out the breakfast area, imperalist pigs. I wathced the protests on tv and also saw that idiot Chavez making a speech. Whats up with all these people hating Bush and America? I don't get it, but the pussy was still good before and after Bushes visit. Also, I went out to some clubs there. Lots of fun. From what I heard, Bush's visit was good for the local economy because it put a spotlight in MDP and more people are going there for conventions now etc. It will be intersting to see how this new prsident of Chile bacehlrt aligns herself. Will it be with Chavez and Lula or with Bush. I don't know anybody's guess. I get laid more down there since Bush visted.
Nibu Raphael
04-18-06, 20:39
Chavez Has The Balls to Stick up to The Globalist Pigs And Say No To Fascist Bush. Hail Chavez He, s My Man. How Dare Anybody say anthing but About Chavez. The Guy Tries to help out The Poor To And Now Maniac Bush Wants a Nuclear War in Iran.
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?Hi,
I sincerely appreciate your reports, but...
Would you please STOP capitalizing the first letter of EVERY word in your reports!
It's difficult to read, it's time consuming to fix, and it takes you more work to write like that.
On behalf of myself and your fellow Forum Members: Thank You!
Jackson
Jjgoinslow
04-19-06, 03:47
Damn straight! Furthermore, if any of you want to score with any of the many many non-pro young lovelies in AR, I suggest keepin any ignorant pro-bush / anti-chavez notions to yourself. Cause the people don't like bush much! I find argentines to be a hell of a lot more knowledgable regarding world events and politics than the average head-in-the-sand american. Can't tell you how many times I've had regular people here ask me 'how did he manage to get reelected?', I just say, those of us with brains don't understand it either. Then I try to make a lot of excuses for the sad state of american education and the well controlled media (uh wait a minute, isnt there rampant liberal bias? I mean like Chavez must own the media in the us, not rupert murdoch. Right?
I've yet to hear one (1) one single well-thought-out criticism of Chavez.
Jj.
Chavez Has The Balls to Stick up to The Globalist Pigs And Say No To Fascist Bush. Hail Chavez He, s My Man. How Dare Anybody say anthing but About Chavez. The Guy Tries to help out The Poor To And Now Maniac Bush Wants a Nuclear War in Iran.
Nibu Raphael
04-19-06, 14:56
Shit Dude You Said it right most people in South America Do not hate Gringos. But When Some Gringos come out here and flaunt there money and support bad adminstrations like Bush And Dickhead Cheney That pisses people off. I Have Met Jackson before And Cap. Dave And They Are Great Guys. Why Jackson still Supports Bush? Its Insane. Does He Not Know Most South Americans Hate Bush And Globalist Imperialisim? I Know Jackson I Think got married to an Argentine Women And Most Argentines Hate Bush. Jackson I am very happy on you and your wife many people have said great things And You Rule. But I Notice a small elite exists in be. A. Argentina that support bush. That I can never ever figure out. Did People see In The Media How Pissed they got IN MDP? Shit People Are Pissed At What THE IMF Did to there country. I Can Not See People trying to support An Administration That Attacks An innocent country like Iraq. Sure Saddam Was An Asshole. I am no Fan of him at all. But At least Under Saddam They Had a Country And Even Christians were around in the open plus Rock N Roll On The streets. Shit There Are Heavy Metal Bands in Iraq Back then too. One Band Was Called Gulf War too. For other info on this check out the sole listing of one One Iraqi Band at www.metal-archives.com I Know Whats Up And I Support the people on issues down here. Man People are Pissed Off At This Global you. S. Imperialism. Last Night On Yahoo news I Saw That Chavez Is now finally starting up His Civilian Miltia And He Is Paying them good cash for South America For 8 bucks an hour. What Is Bush Doing? Bush And Dickhead Cheney Is Fucking up The you. S. Big Time. Shit Maybe The Dollar is strong in Argentina And Venezuela but With Bush In Power The Dollar has gone down in so many placesw. Also The Immigration Issue Bush Is not solving at all. There is like over 25 Million Ilegals In THE you. S. Now That Is Intense. Also Bush Is So Buddy Buddy With Corrupt Vincente Fox. That Guys a Globalist Just Like Bush. Chavez Is Anti Globalist And Anti New World Order. Yes That Is Great Chavez giving Free Gas in the East Coast of THE US. Now Chavez should try to put in Gas in the poor communities of Detroit, Chicago And Milwaukee. Again Why Is Also Bush not putting up a Big Wall All over The you. S. That must be done a 100%. The Mexicans that control Mexico city And Mexico are Not Even your typical Mexicans they Come from elite backgrounds of Spanish, English and Jewish. You Ever See Those Guys In Power There? They Are Tall White Big And Aryan Or European lokking. They Too are robbing There Country So Bad. I could go on and on and on with this. Someone post back here And I Will Debate on this for sure. Hail Chavez To Hell With bush And Vincente Fox Two Globalist Jerks, Sincerly Nibu Raphael.
Hi,
I sincerely appreciate your reports, but...
Would you please STOP capitalizing the first letter of EVERY word in your reports!
It's difficult to read, it's time consuming to fix, and it takes you more work to write like that.
On behalf of myself and your fellow Forum Members: Thank You!
Jackson
Nibu Raphael
04-19-06, 15:34
Dude You need a Whooping. Why Do You Hate Chavez? He is trying to do stuff for his people? What Has Bush Done to help out people in THE US? Starting Global Domination? 9/11? The Economy going Bad? The Dollar falling? You Tell Me Dude.
Hi Nibu,
First I asked, and now I'm going to tell you:
Any reports that you submit from now on that are in all Proper Case will be deleted without comment.
Jackson
"And Hugo Chavez needs a good old fashion whupping!"
Why? Giving the poor access to medical assistance and literacy schemes? Or is it because he has the interest of his own country at heart rather than being a slave to the USA? Or have I missed something here?
Nibu Raphael
04-19-06, 20:28
It was funny too how Chavez and Bush would not look at each other at that meeting. Actually bush was afraid to look at chavez at that meeeting. That was so funny. Chavez like him or not has power and influence in south america.
Yes, Chavez goes out of his way to be an outcast. I thought that regardless of his views, participating in the anti-Cumbre / ALCA / Bush parade in MDP was totally unprofessional and completely undiplomatic, especially for a friggin head of state! A few months ago, he reportedly offered aid to the US during the hurricane Katrina aftermath as a prank. Nice. Yes, I know everybody hates Bush but I don't believe he wakes up everyday thinking "I really want to fuck up today and piss off another country". Maybe wrong though.
Rock Harders
04-19-06, 21:46
Nibu-
Hugo Chavez is nothing more than a power usurping demagogue pandering to the lowest common denominator in an attempt to further his influence and personal political philosophy. If you knew anything about Venezuelan politics and society, you would be aware that the middle class and upper classes absolutely despise Chavez because of his bullshit policies and rhetoric. The poor Venezuelans support Chavez because he tells them what they want to hear and gives them a crumb once in a while to keep them satiated. With oil prices pushing north of $70 USD / barrel, Chavez has a massive windfall of cash in which to do as he pleases, and instead of investing wholeheartedly to improve the lives of the poor he panders to, he directs the funds abroad in order to gain personal influence and prestige among his neighbors and others. Chavez is an avid supporter of Cuba, North Korea, and Iran, three states that have zero respect for basic human rights and liberties. Chavez clearly has a personal vendetta against the Bush Administration for its support of the 2002 military coup that temporarily deposed Chavez.
Keep in mind here that I hate George W. Bush and his policies, and I honestly believe that he should be sent to The Hague (along with Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and Cheney) and tried for War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity. I also strongly believe that if the Democrats take over the House of Representatives and Senate in November, that articles of impeachment should be drawn up against Bush for the crimes he has committed against the interests of the United States through his own stupidity and arrogance.
Right now is a VERY dangerous and uncertain time in the world political-economic climate, and true diplomats of the highest intellect are needed to work out the numerous conflicts that are brewing. It is clear that he Bush Administration is incapable of diplomacy and as a result of asinine past behavior, lacks to credibility to even attempt it.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
Daddy Rulz
04-20-06, 00:50
Chavez uses Bush exactly like Castro has used the EEUU forever. If you can seem to be fighting a strong enemy it makes you look valiant. Needless to say I don't see tanks rolling in Caracas anytime soon.
God I hope and pray that the Dems take the house in Nov. Can anybody say "Congressional investigation" (I know I can't spell it but you know what I mean)
Amen to that. If only it could possibly happen.
Suerte,
Stowe
Very nice Dirk. For a young man, you show some nice perspective with that post. And yes, the republicans are scared shitless about the midterm elections, witness today the postioning of Karl "I will lie, cheat and manipulate like the worst ***** you have ever seen" Rove, into a role that focusses solely on the election. Expect character assassination to be hitting the media soon, and the Fox mealy mouthed talking heads to begin their work of servitude.
Fed up and now in Argentina dog
Jjgoinslow
04-20-06, 05:22
Chavez uses Bush exactly like Castro has used the EEUU forever. If you can seem to be fighting a strong enemy it makes you look valiant. Needless to say I don't see tanks rolling in Caracas anytime soon.
God I hope and pray that the Dems take the house in Nov. Can anybody say "Congressional investigation" (I know I can't spell it but you know what I mean)What you say is true. But just because Chavez exploits the situation doesn't mean that there is no truth to it. Sure Chavez's rhetoric can be pretty strong, but doesn't he have good reason to believe the US might attack.
Given our history of backing insurgents in latin america and overthrowing democratically elected goverments there? And speaking of the way a leader uses an enemy to bolster their position, that pretty much defines Bush. Stompin through the middle-east as if we knew what we were doing, as if we could improve things over there with a war.
Argentines seem to have alot of respect and admiration for Chavez. He is one of the few who will stand up to Bush. In the press at least. Its true that much of the upper class in Venezuela hates him. He represents a threat to their established order, the standard equation whereby a few profit immensely while the vast majority of a population is left to forage. But he has retained constituency in the upper classes as well and of course he is the darling of the intellectual elite. They even hosted the World Social Forum a couple months back. And the business class has their own uncensored media networks which are allowed to criticize and campaign against Chavez in democratic fashion. And he still wins overwhelmingly in democratic elections that the Carter Commission has declared fair and valid (the same Carter Commission that declined to oversee the elections in the US because we didnt meet the basic requirements for validation of the vote) Nibu may be trippin over his own nuts but his fundamental points regarding Chavez are spot on.
Jj
Jjgoinslow
04-20-06, 05:32
Its always helpful to back up opinions with some references. Here is an article written by Medea Benjamin (I think one of the most courageous and intelligent women on the planet! Regarding Chavez's reelection victory.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-01.htm
Published on Tuesday, August 17, 2004 by CommonDreams. Org.
Why Hugo Chavez Won a Landslide Victory.
By Medea Benjamin.
When the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was reaffirmed in a landslide 58-42 percent victory on Sunday, the opposition who put the recall vote on the ballot was stunned. They obviously don't spend much time in the nation's poor neighborhoods.
.
Daddy Rulz
04-20-06, 14:51
Seriously I'm not, He, not Bush, was able to walk freely in the crowds at Mar del Plata. Kind of amazing that any President could do that. He is doing something right.
I guess my cynicism is more a result of the history of Latin American pols, almost invairably they end up like Gilligan in his dream of power. "I promise you this, that, and the other thing" while the money seems to slide to Switzerland and the poor are still poor.
Perhaps Chavez will change that, the optimist in me hopes so but the cynic doubts.
Jjgoinslow
04-20-06, 23:49
I commend Papa Benito for searching for and providing some evidence. However this hackjob was analyzed and exposed by CEPR as such. Unfortunately the same media sources which help to publicize the erroneous research generally fail to publicize the corrections and deeper analysis that follows, especially when it doesnt fit the standard lens (that chavez is a democrat. Er I mean demagogue) But any economist with salt can read through this rather technical work and understand why the aforementioned study overlooked (purposefully or not) its own impossibility.
The short of it:
* The chances of getting an audited sample, under Hausmann and Rigobón's assumptions of how it was selected, of 41.6 percent YES, if the true (non-fraudulent) vote were 59 percent YES, are less than one in 28 billion trillion.
* Even if the true vote had the recall barely succeeding with only 50.1 percent YES, the chances of getting an audited sample of 41.6 percent YES are less than one in a million.
Heres an excerpt of the very long of it.
Center for Economic and Policy Research.
http://www.cepr.net/publications/venezuela_2004_09.htm
Black Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud:
A Look at Hausmann and Rigobón's Analysis of Venezuela's Referendum Vote
By Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick, and Todd Tucker
September 20, 2004
Executive Summary
On September 3, economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, and Roberto Rigobón of the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management, presented econometric results that the authors maintain are evidence of fraud in Venezuela's August 15 recall referendum. The paper was reported by four major international news outlets and was used to raise doubts about the validity of the referendum among U.S. legislators and policy-makers. It was also used to support claims of fraud by opposition leaders in Venezuela.
In this paper we examine the results presented by Hausmann and Rigobón (available at http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~rhausma/new/blackswan03.pdf) and find that they provide no evidence of fraud. This concurs with the findings of the Carter Center (September 17), showing that the sample selected on August 18 for an audit of the vote that they observed, was indeed a random sample of all voting centers, and that electronic fraud of the type suggested by Hausmann and Rigobón was therefore impossible.
In this referendum voters expressed their preference (YES or NO) with a touch screen voting machine. The machine then printed out a paper ballot with the voter's choice, which voters deposited in a ballot box. The audit of 150 voting centers, observed and certified by the Carter Center and the OAS, found that the paper ballots matched the electronic votes within a 0.1 percent margin.
However, Hausmann and Rigobón put forth a theory of electronic fraud that was consistent with a clean audit. According to their illustrative example, suppose the machines were rigged at 3,000 polling centers, and the remaining 1,580 were randomly selected to be left clean. If the computer program that generated the sample could be fixed to sample only from the clean centers, the electronic votes would match the paper ballots in the audit -- in spite of the fraud.
The authors then present two sets of evidence which they claim indicates that fraud of this type took place.
The main problem with their analysis is that, according to their assumptions, the audited sample of 150 voting sites should reflect the true -- that is, non-fraudulent -- referendum result. Such a large sample provides incontrovertible evidence of the validity of the official results, which were well within the range that would be expected given the results found in the audited sample.
By contrast, the exit poll used by Hausmann and Rigobón, published by the American polling firm Penn, Schoen, Berland & Associates found that 59 percent of voters were in favor of the recall (YES), and 41 percent opposed (NO). This was the opposite of the official results certified by the Carter Center and the Organization of American States, in which voters rejected the recall by a margin of 59 percent (NO) to 41 percent (YES).
But the audited sample had only 41.6 percent YES votes. This paper finds that:
* The chances of getting an audited sample, under Hausmann and Rigobón's assumptions of how it was selected, of 41.6 percent YES, if the true (non-fraudulent) vote were 59 percent YES, are less than one in 28 billion trillion.
* Even if the true vote had the recall barely succeeding with only 50.1 percent YES, the chances of getting an audited sample of 41.6 percent YES are less than one in a million.
This paper also examines the other statistical evidence presented by Hausmann and Rigobón to support their theory of electronic fraud and finds that it is dependent on implausible assumptions. We conclude that the results that they interpret as evidence of fraud most likely stem from a misspecification in their econometric model.
(ill spare you all the entire paper, its really long!)
http://www.cepr.net/publications/venezuela_2004_09.htm
Rock Harders
04-21-06, 00:02
JJgoinslow-
None of what you are posting refutes any of the statements I made in my post. It should be no surprise that Chavez wins elections in Venezuela- more than 50% of the Venezuelan population is dirt poor and desperate, and thus buys into his "eat the rich" bullshit and praises him for the menial crumbs he throws their way, all the while he buys up $500 million USD in Argentine junk bonds with the national wealth in order to gain influence with Argentina and the Mercosur bloc at large. I read today on the AP (associated press) that Chavez has threatened to burn "his" oil fields if the United States invades Venezuela, ala Saddam Hussein, just to make sure the "white terrorist" cannot get his hands on Venezuelan oil. What an environmental / economic / ecological disaster that would be for Venezuela.
Suerte,
Dirk Diggler
Jjgoinslow
04-21-06, 00:45
Dirk, we can agree to disagree I guess. If you read the debate you will realize that one point has been raised and countered, both with information to back. That point regards whether or not the election was stolen. The reader (very very few I imagine) can read and if they have some statistics under their belt, they can interpret and decide (just like fox news huh:)
Your particular accusations are rather general. I certainly have responded to you but also in a general manner. You can't really refute nor prove generalities very easily. But since I read your last message as a request for some direct response:
"the middle class and upper classes absolutely despise Chavez because of his bullshit policies and rhetoric."
-I said before, I agreed that much of the upper class dislikes him.
-I don't agree his policies are bullshit, but you can write volumes about that, its so general, so I merely posted an article which provides some insight into what his policies are doing for poor people. NOT merely crumbs mind you.
"The poor Venezuelans support Chavez because he tells them what they want to hear and gives them a crumb once in a while"
- as I said, he certainly uses the rhetoric and the policies to exploit and build an advantage. But then that doesnt make the policies bad or the rhetoric untrue. Although I think he overplays this, he might tone down a bit, but its not like he is cherrypicking intelligence and starting wars or killing his people.
"Chavez has a massive windfall of cash in which to do as he pleases, and instead of investing wholeheartedly to improve the lives of the poor he panders to, he directs the funds abroad in order to gain personal influence and prestige among his neighbors and others."
-are you suggesting that Chavez steals the money? Never seen evidence of that. Are you suggesting the majority of the economy leaves the country? Id like to see the evidence (I'm not refuting it) Do you know what percentage of our Budget goes to social services? Yikes its small. Are you suggesting his foreign policy is only a facade, that it has no positive goals nor benefit? Should venezuela be isolationist and not engage its neighbors? If so how do you square such a view with US foreign policy. The US funds political opposition groups in Venezuela? Is that ok? Chavez wins anyway!
"Chavez is an avid supporter of Cuba, North Korea, and Iran, three states that have zero respect for basic human rights and liberties."
-I don't know about Iran and North Korea, but it wouldnt surprise me if he sells them oil. But if human rights are the basis for whether or not we should engage a foreign country, than perhaps the US should withdraw from relations with China, Pakistan and a host of countries in the Coalition of the willing. We regularly prop of 3rd world dictators when it fits within our own objectives. Conservatives don't like this guy cause he doesnt play along, he is not a US puppet.
"Chavez clearly has a personal vendetta against the Bush Administration for its support of the 2002 military coup that temporarily deposed Chavez."
-uh. Gosh isnt that a good reason not to like or trush someone? I mean coup isnt like some kind of town hall meeting.
"he buys up $500 million USD in Argentine junk bonds with the national wealth in order to gain influence with Argentina and the Mercosur bloc at large."
- I am not qualified to evaluate whether or not that is a good move, but I don't see that it is necesarily a bad move. Maybe they are not really junk, maybe argentine investments will help the south in the short term and profit venezuela in the long run. Who knows. Maybe he is fostering stability in the South (to use a hawk phrase)
"Chavez has threatened to burn "his" oil fields if the United States invades Venezuela, ala Saddam Hussein, just to make sure the "white terrorist" cannot get his hands on Venezuelan oil. What an environmental / economic / ecological disaster that would be for Venezuela."
-Ive heard his threats, and well, I agree burning oil fields is a bad idea, but isnt the striking thing that he is saying "if the US invades", why would the US invade anyway? Well it seems improbable to us. But then looking at the history and the current wars, Chavez and the venezuelan people have reason to be worried. I don't blame any leader for at least providing some rhetorical disincentive for the US to invade. Its not like his is kidnapping our citizens.
Anyway Dirk it appears you are a democrat, so why are you such a passionate opponent of Chavez? Has he massacred his people? Funded terrorist organizations? Nuked anyone? Invaded any countries? Etc, ad nosium.
If south america continues to build its society around a more socialist model (relative to the US) and with time presents itself as a world power to contend with, then the current spats will come into better focus. Because the US doesnt want socialism growing in its backyard, even if it happens in a *democratic* fashion and indeed, we have a history of squashing socialist democracies in latin america.
Well, like I said, we can agree to disagree.
Jj
Nibu Raphael
04-21-06, 16:55
Chavez Tries and is a great guy. How about Vincente Fox? Man that guy is a pure globalist pig. Look at how he is supporting all the ilegal imigration flow coming in to the you. S. Now in Texas I heard they will have milatary patrols all over Texas soon but nothing to control the border. To any Mexicans out there reading Vincente Fox hates the typical mexican he is a racist. He is from aryan type family of british and spanish descent. The guy is just as bad as bush. The ilegal immigration problem of 25 ilegals is purely out of control. This madness must stop but Vincente Fox loves this. Just like Fidel Castro was getting rid of undesirables in the 80, s with that mariela boatlift scandal. Fox And the people in power in D. F. Are racist scum. The Mexican flag is an embarassment these days under Nazi Vincente Fox. The guy is a total globalist fascist scum. Why again the bashing on Chavez? Remember how he stood up to Vincente Fox? Chavez has the balls to do that. Now look out after globalist Fox they have some left winger Manuel Lopez Obrador that will want the presidency. The people left in Mexico will vote for him for sure as they are getting pissed with Fox the european not Mexican. People the familes in power in Mexico City are of aryan spanish bllod and british lineage too plus rich jewish families and even a polish mexican lady is in control there. To Mexicans wake up on Fox. He is robbing you people blind.
1) It is Vicente Fox, not Vincente Fox.
2) He is part Irish, not British.
3) You don't know squat.
Nibu Raphael
04-21-06, 17:09
Castro And Chavez are both different. Chavez has freedom in his country. Fudel has tons and tons of prisons and also the police watch you in cuba. In Venezuela they do not constantly haras you. Cuba and Venezuela are apart on freedom. Cuba is a police state and Venezuela is a free state.
OV,
I'm not a great fan of Castro, I've been to Cuba and the lack of freedom for the Cubans that I saw is pretty disgusting. But he does get on well with most of the world, (I'm talking about europe and latin america); its the US embargo that really fucks the economy.
Nibu Raphael
04-21-06, 17:12
Dude he is not typical mexican. He is aryan and a globalist. Tell me why? You support that scumbag? Come on dude lighten up.
1) It is Vicente Fox, not Vincente Fox.
2) He is part Irish, not British.
3) You don't know squat.
I have no position on Fox Quesada one way or the other but I dislike it when people of Irish descent are referred to as British, since the British have been screwing the Irish ever since they kidnapped Queen Drogheda in 1122, and since I am of Irish descent.
I have zero interest in Mexican politics.
Nibu Raphael
04-21-06, 18:54
Alright I here ya. I did thought that he was of british and spanish descent. I did not know he was of Irish descent sorry on that.
I have no position on Fox Quesada one way or the other but I dislike it when people of Irish descent are referred to as British, since the British have been screwing the Irish ever since they kidnapped Queen Droggheda in 1122, and since I am of Irish descent.
I have zero interest in Mexican politics.
Nibu Raphael
05-05-06, 15:45
Just read up that article on Chavez. Yes he seems to be helping out the people. Now I am even pissed more at bush look now how he has fucked up the dollar against the real in Brazil? Shit now its at its worst like 2.07 reales. Bush is just a creep. Did everyone see yesterday on the news the people getting thrown out left and right when confronting that cronie rumsfield? Ray Mcgovern also an ex cia dude almost got thrown out too. Man are lot of people pissed at our administration for all the lies. If Chavez is a demon he is a very very very small demon compared to bush he is an angel. I again like him. Morales the whacky indian seems nuts but chavez is different. Man also since I have been back living in Shitcago USSA. The country is also going down the hill. These immigration rallies that our government created has also fucked up shit more. Now more racial tensions will happen her for sure. Has anyone also saw that crazy racist video game border patrol? Funny in a way but still fucked up. Maybe post something later. Until next time, Nibu.
Its always helpful to back up opinions with some references. Here is an article written by Medea Benjamin (I think one of the most courageous and intelligent women on the planet! Regarding Chavez's reelection victory.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-01.htm
Published on Tuesday, August 17, 2004 by CommonDreams. Org.
Why Hugo Chavez Won a Landslide Victory.
By Medea Benjamin.
When the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was reaffirmed in a landslide 58-42 percent victory on Sunday, the opposition who put the recall vote on the ballot was stunned. They obviously don't spend much time in the nation's poor neighborhoods.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.1.4 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.