View Full Version : Polítics without Kirchner
This is I think is going to happen:
Cristina: Will go for reelelection with Scoli running for the province and Moyano as her running mate. If Scoli defects to Duhalde and runs for president she will ask Moyano to run for the province and has Hebe as a running mate.
Scoli: I can only see him going to go for reelection or run for president with the backing of Duhalde.
Duhalde: Will go for president If Scoli does not run for him.
Macri: Will Probally run for president with 10 percent of the vote. Macri for capital, De Navaez for province and Scoli for president and Duhalde behind the scene.
UCR: No chance and it doesn't even matter If Cobos or Alfonsin runs.
For me the key is in the hands of Scoli
Macri lacks political backing, he is still fairly young and with a favorable casa rosada it gives him 4 more years to prepare
This is I think is going to happen:
Cristina: Will go for reelelection with Scoli running for the province and Moyano as her running mate. If Scoli defects to Duhalde and runs for president she will ask Moyano to run for the province and has Hebe as a running mate.
Scoli: I can only see him going to go for reelection or run for president with the backing of Duhalde.
Duhalde: Will go for president If Scoli does not run for him.
Macri: Will Probally run for president with 10 percent of the vote. Macri for capital, De Navaez for province and Scoli for president and Duhalde behind the scene.
UCR: No chance and it doesn't even matter If Cobos or Alfonsin runs.
For me the key is in the hands of ScoliNo sense in reading the newspapers anymore! Just follow Redondo / Trampa!
"Hebe as a running mate"! Hebe is crazy as a hoot owl! Nobody is going to have Hebe as a running mate.
Hebe was like an inside joke, however I think that Cristina will become more radical and even
More then ever depend on people and organosations like abuelas, gct, Moreno, Moyano and the like
Cario, Duhalde and Cobos are asked not to attend the velatorio, Lets hope thats not a sign for things to come.
Stan Da Man
10-28-10, 20:06
This is I think is going to happen:
Cristina: Will go for reelelection with Scoli running for the province and Moyano as her running mate. If Scoli defects to Duhalde and runs for president she will ask Moyano to run for the province and has Hebe as a running mate.
Scoli: I can only see him going to go for reelection or run for president with the backing of Duhalde.
Duhalde: Will go for president If Scoli does not run for him.
Macri: Will Probally run for president with 10 percent of the vote. Macri for capital, De Navaez for province and Scoli for president and Duhalde behind the scene.
UCR: No chance and it doesn't even matter If Cobos or Alfonsin runs.
For me the key is in the hands of ScoliYou guys want Obama? He'll be a free agent in two years. Plus, he's already friends with the Castros and Chavez, so you won't have all those awkward new introductions when a new guy takes over.
If you want him now, we'll trade him to you for some batting practice balls and a catcher's mask. If you don't know what that is, we'll take a couple of pairs of used Adidas and one of those cool blue Argie futbal uniforms. Any size will do. We'll even cover the plane fare and pick up his salary for the next two years. And, all of the above is negotiable.
Think about it. You, too, could have Hope and Change soon.
Think about it. You, too, could have Hope and Change soon.Tick! Tick! Tick! Tuesday can't come soon enough! IALOTFLMAO! Happy Mongering All. Toymann
It is possible that everyone is supporting Cristina for now, because her husband just died. It would look really bad for anyone to challenge her now. But after Nestor is buried for a while, a power struggle will develop within the Peronist party.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/argentina-s-cristina-fernandez-has-low-chance-of-re-election-bofa-says.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/kirchner-s-death-leaves-political-vacuum-ahead-of-2011-election.html
It doesn't have to be within the peronist party there are 2 branches of the peronist party, one that is controlled by Cristina / Kirchner and one that is controlled by former president Duhalde. Untill the death of Kirchner the most likely scenario was that both parties would have a presidential candidate, right now it's unclear if anybody (like Scoli) wants to challenge Cristina to get nominated as a presidential candidate.
I think the 2 Peronist candidates is the most likely, but time will tell
Looking back at the elections in 2007.
She got 8,500,000 votes, there were 19,100,000 valid votes, 20,600,000 votes, around 27,500,000 could vote. This basically means she got 31% of the total votes.
If you get 40% of the vote and your nearest rival get less then 30% of the valid votes (10% difference) you will become the president (also if you get 45% of the valid votes)
If the numbers are rougly the same and there will be atleast 3 oposition parties who can get 10 to 20% of the votes (PJ Federal, UCR, Socialista, Macri, Solanos, Cario among others) you need roughly 7,500,000 votes to become president.
With so many people living on hands outs from the state and even more influx of poor people from the north she should easily get 7,500,000 votes
More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2007
Wild Walleye
10-30-10, 12:00
You guys want Obama? He'll be a free agent in two years. Plus, he's already friends with the Castros and Chavez, so you won't have all those awkward new introductions when a new guy takes over.I think many Argies and the rest of the world would like Argentina to politically move to the center (I. E. To the right) not further to the left!
This may be inappropriate and even cruel, but I've got to know:
Did Cristina sing "Don't Cry For Me Argentina" at Nestor Kirchner's funeral? .
Wild Walleye
11-01-10, 15:43
This may be inappropriate and even cruel, but I've got to know:
Did Cristina sing "Don't Cry For Me Argentina" at Nestor Kirchner's funeral? . Standing at the foot of el penguino's coffin was scintillating. I almost felt for her. Almost.
Then I remembered everything these two dirtbags and their cronies have done to destroy opportunity for the people of Argentina. Not to mention depriving certain carpet baggers financial gain.
I have not heard a single person say anything good about either of these two lowlifes, other than the occasional, deranged-looking, union-sycophant chanting some BS, on TV. The most common comment, expressing sadness about Nestor's passing, has been that it was too bad he didn't die in jail.
Cristina does have around 35% support in Argentina and if she will maintain that level she will easily win the elections
Wild Walleye
11-01-10, 16:13
Cristina does have around 35% support in Argentina and if she will maintain that level she will easily win the electionsIf she or some of her cronies start to get a little attention from Justice?
If she or some of her cronies start to get a little attention from Justice?They won't untill there term is over.
By 2015 Maximo should be ready
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