View Full Version : Investing during a world wide economic downturn
Many Ap members used to discuss investing. There were investment professionals and dumb shits like me. Opinions are like assholes-everyone have one SO.
Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) reported a blowout report after the close. Earnings were $12. 30 vs. $10 consensus on $39. 2 billion in revenue vs. $36. 8 billion expectation.
The key number was iPhone units at 35 million, which rose 88% year over year. Better than the "whisper number" and high end of 34 million. IPads posted 11. 8 million units, up 151% year over year, in line with expectations. This would have been better, but it had supply constraints. And Mac sales were 4 million, up 7, below expectations of 4. 5 million, but explainable given the product refresh ahead. Gross margins rose 47, well above 41% year over year and 43% consensus on the strength of iPhone sales.
Guidance was lowered for the June quarter at $34 billion and $8. 68 a share, compared with $37 billion and $9. 92 a share consensus. But this was expected, given the supply constraints and ahead of the iPhone 5 launch, which will come in the fall (likely October). It generated $14 billion in cash from operations.
The initial reaction is positive, and with shares down 11% into the quarter (yet still up 40% year to date) , it's easy to see the higher share price in after-hours trading.
Tequila Tim
04-25-12, 20:14
During uncertain times such as these, I invest in the Monger Fund (MF), a long / short ETF designed for the adventurous male. Top holdings in the fund include the following:
LONG holdings include:
Thallion Pharmaceuticals, Inc (TLN)
Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM)
01 COMM LAB (DFK)
Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CUM)
BlackRock California Municipal 2018 Term Trust (BJZ)
Research In Motion Limited (RIMM)
FUJIKON INDL (FUK)
SHORT holdings include:
Banco Santander, S. A. (STD)
CB GOLD INC (CBJ)
Anyone have any other long / short suggestions?
Anyone have any other long / short suggestions?Definately LONG on:
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners (PSE)
TejanoLibre
04-26-12, 00:43
During uncertain times such as these, I invest in the Monger Fund (MF) , a long / short ETF designed for the adventurous male. Top holdings in the fund include the following:
LONG holdings include:
Thallion Pharmaceuticals, Inc (TLN)
Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM)
01 COMM LAB (DFK)
Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CUM)
BlackRock California Municipal 2018 Term Trust (BJZ)
Research In Motion Limited (RIMM)
FUJIKON INDL (FUK)
SHORT holdings include:
Banco Santander, S. A. (STD)
CB GOLD INC (CBJ)
Anyone have any other long / short suggestions?Sounds great Tim, but I have invested ALL of my money on Whisky and Women and I have Blown the rest!
Come on Down!
TL
Gato Hunter
04-26-12, 16:34
I parked my stock market high risk gambling fund in MSFT and APL in November. If had put the rest of it in there I would be retired now. Instead I get to have a great vacation.
Big Boss Man
04-26-12, 22:12
I used a tip of his and bought LINE a few years ago. Over 100% return since I bought it and I am still holding.
Sounds great Tim, but I have invested ALL of my money on Whisky and Women and I have Blown the rest!
Come on Down!
TLThe above is the best investment advice I have heard.
For the past 3 years the stock market has been on a roll because there is nowhere else to put money. As soon as interest rates start edging up money will start going into CD's and bonds with guaranteed returns. The stock market will have some stiff headwinds then.
During uncertain times such as these, I invest in the Monger Fund (MF), a long / short ETF designed for the adventurous male.Anyone have any other long / short suggestions?No suggestions for the MF, but a Monger Special Situations Fund would be a marketable idea. The premise: go where hookers are the cheapest, and load up on the stocks in that market. This admittedly is a top down approach, but would have worked great. Examples:
Argentina, middle of 2002:
USD exchange rate: 3. 6 pesos / dollar.
Cost of short time in Catto's: 100 pesos.
Cost for a poke: $28.
USD return on Argentina Merval Index from mid 2002 to present: 6X.
Indonesia, middle of 1998:
USD exchange rate: 14, 500 Rupiah / dollar.
Cost of short time with drop dead beautiful spinner in Tiera Ciera, including tip: 150, 000 Rupiah.
Cost for a poke with a real hottie: $10.34.
USD return on Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ 45 Index from mid 1998 to present: 11X.
Colombia, middle of 2003:
USD exchange rate: 2800 pesos / dollar.
Cost of long time with extremely attractive paisa in La Dolce Vita, Cartagena: 150, 000 pesos.
Cost for a long time poke: $54.
USD return on Bolsa de Valores de Colombia index since mid 2003:12X.
Thailand, middle of 1998:
USD exchange rate: 40 Baht / dollar.
Cost of long time with drop dead beautiful hooker from Pretty Lady at Nana Plaza: 3000 Baht.
Cost for a long time poke: $75.
USD return on Stock Exchange of Thailand Index from mid 1998 to present: 6X.
Please note that while all the above special situations performed well, the best returns were from the countries with the lowest-priced hotties (Indonesia and Colombia). Of course, it would make sense to screen out countries populated by a bunch of nationalizing socialists with no respect for free markets or repatriation of capital, so maybe better to exclude countries like Argentina from the fund.
Tequila Tim
04-28-12, 00:08
Tiny,
Interesting investment approach. Is there a Philippines ETF? During a recent visit short time pokes were going for $16.
TT
Big Boss Man
04-28-12, 13:13
No suggestions for the MF, but a Monger Special Situations Fund would be a marketable idea. The premise: go where hookers are the cheapest, and load up on the stocks in that market. This admittedly is a top down approach, but would have worked great. Examples:Good idea. Or the opposite might work as well. Invest where the hookers are the best looking and most expensive signaling there is lots of cash swirling around. I recently did well with a Macau casino stock MPEL. MPEL has run up and it doesn't look like a good entry point but LVS may still be. LVS also has exposure to Singapore. Full disclosure: Currently have a position in MPEL and no position in LVS but may open one in the next week.
I have been trading around the position. I have about half a position now and some Cop. If LINE goes down to $35. 75, I'll buy more.
If the energy sector, I also like the master limited partnerships. I have been cutting my position in Kinder Morgan Partners and getting into Enterprise- EPT big yield and expanding rapidly unloved.
This is not a "no brainer". Do your own research-intelligent people might disagree. DOES ANYONE HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT EPT? EPT.
I have small position in EOG cowboy country is full of oil. Anyone want to invest in a laundry-mat or something similar in one of those dakota boom towns? I DON'T WANT TO LIVE THERE-just make some $$. The hedge fund genius lost much of my retirement $$ Hey, el alamo.
Country-western bar el alamo north?
Own a little CHK and now down too much to sell. Maybe balance out at 17 and have dead $$ until natural gas eventually moves up. Boy did I get this one wrong.
Energy-I'm slightly over weight.
-
GLD gold full position in bullion-no miners.
-
AAPL is my largest position. I am not tempted to sell nor hedge. Will look at it care fully before Christmas 2012 iphone 5 with perfected siri. 4g and increased battery life should be giant.due next fall-they say September. So should be selling like crazy for Christmas
I am not an investment professional. I am not a dummy, but not a mentored pro. There are likely more than a few real pro's reading this posting or someone who knows the pipline business. The pro's seem to hate this stock-too expensive by "normal metrics" it is growing and growing. It is really a toll road. The dividend is increasing every year- currently 7. 2. I have made some money here, but thinking about getting rid of the rest of my KMP[ up big and div now 5. 2. It is no longer cheap]-the gold standard in the same business and going all in with ETP on a dip.
I could use some help. Anyone out there can offer me some insight?
Where is Exxon123 when you really need him. Thank god I didn't listen to him and hold exxon as my major energy position
Where is Exxon123 when you really need him. Thank god I didn't listen to him and hold exxon as my major energy positionToo bad Sidney quit the forum, I remember how much talk we had in the forum during the 2008 crisis and 2009 rally about investing and finances. I miss that man's knowledge, believe it or not I learned a lot since that time and had my ups and downs but mostly ups since then. Who knows something about him guys?
Whiskas. Glad to see that your alive and doing well. Post more often. Will pm you about our little friend of long ago.
Since Sid loved him dominicans in Baires, why not move to the island. I trade emails with him and he seems happy and a bit cranky, but that's the Sid we all know and love.
I feel like a cheer leader-trying to get some posting out of you guys.
Please add something? I am starting to feel like an ass-hole, but it is great to see some posting from some formerly active members. Did you catch dickhead and aqualung?
If you want a more detailed update, Toymann was down to party with sid recently. I'm in miami so I can't really see myself going to the / Dominican Republic to get away.
There is some great mongering in miami in the us$150 to $200 range with latinas.
Whiskas. Glad to see that your alive and doing well. Post more often. Will pm you about our little friend of long ago.Thank you so much, I would love to post more, but to be honest if I can't make a serious contribution to the forum I prefer to listen (read in this case) , I haven't been in Argentina in years so not much to contribute, but still loyal to the forum. I will be glad to hear from you and that little friend. Best regards!
Since Sid loved him dominicans in Baires, why not move to the island. I trade emails with him and he seems happy and a bit cranky, but that's the Sid we all know and love.
I feel like a cheer leader-trying to get some posting out of you guys.
Please add something? I am starting to feel like an ass-hole, but it is great to see some posting from some formerly active members. Did you catch dickhead and aqualung?
If you want a more detailed update, Toymann was down to party with sid recently. I'm in miami so I can't really see myself going to the / Dominican Republic to get away.
There is some great mongering in miami in the us$150 to $200 range with latinas.Glad to hear he's fine, where he belongs. Never had the pleasure to meet him in person but I liked his comments a lot so when he left I felt something was never the same in the forum. If I remember correctly he had more than 3000 contributions by the time he closed his account. I read some comments by aqualung and Toymann recently but that's it. Good to know from you and I promess to contribute as much as possible. Cheers!
TejanoLibre
05-01-12, 06:35
Glad to hear he's fine, where he belongs. Never had the pleasure to meet him in person but I liked his comments a lot so when he left I felt something was never the same in the forum. If I remember correctly he had more than 3000 contributions by the time he closed his account. I read some comments by aqualung and Toymann recently but that's it. Good to know from you and I promess to contribute as much as possible. Cheers!El Cid!
He was the best!
Cranky old S. O. B and good friend of "Ours."
Over 3500 posts or something like that.
I am going to break his record Boys.
Never met a better poster child for mongers!
He lines them up and fucks them!
3 Dominicans per day!
Breakfast, lunch and dinner with a T. L. N included Boys!
Plus he is older than your father!
Where does that shit come from?
He is "OUR" god!
TL
El Cid!
He was the best!
Cranky old S. O. B and good friend of "Ours."
Over 3500 posts or something like that.
I am going to break his record Boys.
Never met a better poster child for mongers!
He lines them up and fucks them!
3 Dominicans per day!
Breakfast, lunch and dinner with a T. L. N included Boys!
Plus he is older than your father!
Where does that shit come from?
He is "OUR" god!
TLCranky old git, reminded me of my father! Hahaha I miss his crusade against taxi drivers! Hahahahaha
Big Boss Man, To avoid hijacking the American Politics thread, I'm posting a response here to your post about what should go into a tax deferred account, like an IRA.
I suspect it would make sense to keep everything in a tax deferred acccount. But if a person already has maxed out his contributions and has money left over to invest, then this might be a reasonable ranking, for what should go into the tax deferred account first. There's a big advantage to holding "1" below in the tax deferred account, and the advantage decreases as you go down the list.
1. Interest bearing instruments, taxable at up to 43.4% tax rates, with little or no potential for capital gains. Examples: certificates of deposits; investment grade bonds.
2. Interest bearing instruments and stocks that pay nonqualified dividends, that do have potential for capital gains, and for which there are no foreign withholding taxes. Examples: Singapore and Hong Kong stocks; junk bonds (Singapore and Hong Kong dividends are nonqualified and there is no dividend tax in those countries, thus no tax withholding).
3. Stocks that pay qualified dividends, for which there is no tax withholding, and for which there is capital gains appreciation potential. Most U.S. Common stocks would fit into this category.
4. Foreign stocks that pay qualified dividends for which there is withholding tax (and thus a tax credit). Examples would be most European stocks.
5. Municipal Bonds.
I don't know a lot about MLP's and REIT's. They're tricky animals. On one hand you may be largely sheltered from current tax on income by virtue of depreciation deductions. But then when you go to sell the shares I think you have to pay tax on recaptured depreciation. Where they'd fit would depend a lot on the particular MLP or REIT, and also on whether you intend to sell during your lifetime or pass on to heirs.
And under #1, or even #0.5, are TIPS, since they give off phantom income. I believe REITs are best held in retirement accounts and would properly be a #2 in your scheme. The REIT structure, unlike MLPs, does not pass depreciation through directly, although of course the REIT itself can use it. REITs have got a pretty high payout ratio by law (90%) so I'd especially want them in tax-deferred accounts during my high earning years. MLPs I would say the exact opposite because of the pass-through depreciation.
I'm trying to think of a reason to put munis in a retirement account. Single tax frees in a high state income tax state? Never really seen it done. I did once have a situation where a Prudential "financial counselor" had set my friend up with a fixed annuity in her IRA. I would say that was way stupid but he knew exactly what he was doing to her; fixed annuities are insurance products by law and not securities and he, of course, was not licensed to sell securities. So, it was intentional malpractice. She sued them and got a pretty fair settlement, which unfortunately I was by law precluded from taking a percentage of. Strangely, however, my hourly fee closely approximated the percentage I had in mind.
I really do think a lot of advisors have not adjusted their thinking to "permanently" reduced capital gains rates and are not getting a lot of this stuff right. It's got major estate planning implications, and also major implications for college financial aid.
Lately I've been looking at using HSAs as pseudo-IRAs. You can put I think it is 3,300 a year (plus 1,000 if over 50) into these and it grows tax deferred like a traditional IRA. You don't have to match the withdrawals with the contributions and once you're 65 you can take the money out without penalty whether you use it for medical expenses or not. This last is a pretty goodly loophole. You have to have shitty health insurance to qualify, but I think it would work for a lot of ex-pats. Stateside, young people could put away quite a bit of deferred money. One member of a couple could have a shitty plan and an HSA while the other half has good employer insurance that covers the spouse.
Oh yeah and the contribution to the HSA reduces income for the purpose of calculating the ACA subsidy!
Good point about the munis. The only reasons I can think of to put them in a retirement account would be if you intended to actively trade them and were expecting to realize capital gains, or if you're buying munis at significant discounts to par. If you buy at a discount to par and hold to maturity, I believe the difference between par and cost basis is taxable income. But admittedly in most situations people would be much better off buying taxable bonds if using funds from a retirement account.
Thanks for the info about depreciation and REITS, I didn't know that.
I actually have an HSA and very good health insurance, the only caveat being that it has a $3,000 deductible.
Yeah, if you buy a bond at a discount and hold it to maturity, the discount is ordinary income and you have a phantom income element. On zeros all the income is phantom, so I guess that'd be a reason. I don't think I have ever seen a muni that was a zero, though.
Those HSAs did get a little bit less advantageous when non-prescription meds became non-qualified expenses. So that meant that for example Prilosec 40mg requires a prescription but 20 mg does not. So everybody started asking for scripts for 40s and cutting them in half. So then the insurance companies started requiring doctors to write letters as to why the patient couldn't just take two 20s instead of a 40. The answer was, allegedly, that the 40s are time release but the 20s aren't, or some such thing. There's a few drugs like that out there that you used to be able to run through the HSA but now can't. I don't really see why the eligible expenses should not be exactly the same as for the medical expense deduction. I don't get all that bullshit about bandaids and such. Oh and cough drops are okay but not cough syrup cuz it has dextromethorphan or guafenisin or both and those can be had with a script. Give me a break.
I thought HSA-eligible plans couldn't cover prescription drugs. I have a hard time thinking a plan that didn't could be all that good. Am I missing something? I can't qualify for an HSA right now, as it turns out.
There are zero coupon muni's.
Off topic but a little related to your second point, my allergist used to prescribe some high dollar antihistamine, even though it didn't work any better than Allegra or Zyrtec generics, which are now available OTC, because she either thought she was doing me a favor (because she thought medical insurance would cover it) or because the drug company was buying her off. So I ended up spending $100 for something that should have cost $10 until I figured what was going on. This is representative of how screwed up our health care system is. It's crony capitalism at it's worst. Obama isn't any more culpable here than many other politicians, but it chaps me that so many people think the ACA is the best thing since sliced white bread. It didn't fix the system. Instead it made it more complicated and inefficient.
The US medical system is highly adversarial. You have an adversarial relationship between the patient and the insurance company, and between the doctor and the insurance company. By extrapolation that leads to an adversarial doctor-patient relationship. Then you have the pharms who have nobody's best interests at heart, and the downright meretricious relationship between the pharms and the docs. The ACA might tend to undermine patient-doctor relationships because of the way it encourages shopping your policy each and every year. I imagine that will stabilize over time to some extent (because new entrants are a large part of the premium fluctuations), but not completely.
AllIWantIsLove
11-17-14, 17:36
<snip> The ACA might tend to undermine patient-doctor relationships because of the way it encourages shopping your policy each and every year. <snip> ALL insurance undermines the patient-doctor relationship because the doctor is being paid, mostly, by the insurance company. So he's highly motivated to keep the insurance company happy at the expense of his motivation to keep the patient happy. Worse, I suspect that the doctor has to follow insurance company rules that the patient is not even aware of.
Bob.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.1.4 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.