If I walk around in BA there must be a serious recession going on. Nobody goes out, spends and stuff like that.
Compared to 2005 or even 2006 BA is really DEATH
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If I walk around in BA there must be a serious recession going on. Nobody goes out, spends and stuff like that.
Compared to 2005 or even 2006 BA is really DEATH
All this absolute speculation that the economy here is about to crash reminds me of Mark Twain, (of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn fame) In the belief that he had died, an obituary was published in a newspaper. Clements, Twain real name, wrote, "Rumours of his death are greatly exaggerated".
My real belief is that there is a lot of wishfull thinking going on. Pussy and general living expenses here are very volatile in their pricing. Mongers who can only remember prices immediately after the corralito and the upward spiral since, would do well to remember that this is the pattern here and has been for the 20 years that I know. Eventually it will fall into the hole the politicians are digging, but not just yet. The influx of Paraquayas reflects the fullish employment situation at present. There were very few just after 2002 because of the shortage of jobs. I know Geo Eye won't agree, but a lot of the woman who work in the industry, would prefer employment other than fucking strangers for money and putting up with all sorts of belittling requests.
So to cut to the Chase. The economy here is not about to shit itself; prices will continue to go up; those mongers hoping for a crash and a drop in prices are going to be disappointed and there will be more busloads of cheap imported pussy rolling down the Pan American.
[QUOTE=Argento]All this absolute speculation that the economy here is about to crash reminds me of Mark Twain, (of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn fame) In the belief that he had died, an obituary was published in a newspaper. Clements, Twain real name, wrote, "Rumours of his death are greatly exaggerated".
My real belief is that there is a lot of wishfull thinking going on. Pussy and general living expenses here are very volatile in their pricing. Mongers who can only remember prices immediately after the corralito and the upward spiral since, would do well to remember that this is the pattern here and has been for the 20 years that I know. Eventually it will fall into the hole the politicians are digging, but not just yet. The influx of Paraquayas reflects the fullish employment situation at present. There were very few just after 2002 because of the shortage of jobs. I know Geo Eye won't agree, but a lot of the woman who work in the industry, would prefer employment other than fucking strangers for money and putting up with all sorts of belittling requests.
So to cut to the Chase. The economy here is not about to shit itself; prices will continue to go up; those mongers hoping for a crash and a drop in prices are going to be disappointed and there will be more busloads of cheap imported pussy rolling down the Pan American.[/QUOTE]Inflation will soon start to affect the competive edge and that will lead to a recession. Even sooner if the US crashes.
[QUOTE=Redondo]Inflation will soon start to affect the competive edge and that will lead to a recession. Even sooner if the US crashes.[/QUOTE]Argentina really only exports agricultural products such as cereals and soy. Most of the manufactured goods that are exported are off-set against similiar imports from the Mercosur countries. As agricultural producers this country is reasonably efficient and with the world scarcity of grain and soy, which are not exported to the USA, the US is not a prime factor in this economy. I fail to see that the internal inflation will effect anything except the price of living here for expats. And that of course includes the cost of desirable pussy.
I repeat my mantra. "No recession here for a few years. Normal economics do not apply."
[QUOTE=Argento]Argentina really only exports agricultural products such as cereals and soy. Most of the manufactured goods that are exported are off-set against similiar imports from the Mercosur countries. As agricultural producers this country is reasonably efficient and with the world scarcity of grain and soy, which are not exported to the USA, the US is not a prime factor in this economy. I fail to see that the internal inflation will effect anything except the price of living here for expats. And that of course includes the cost of desirable pussy.
I repeat my mantra. "No recession here for a few years. Normal economics do not apply."[/QUOTE]If the peso goes to 1:4 against the dollar farmers lose 30% of the earnings
[QUOTE=Redondo]If the peso goes to 1:4 against the dollar farmers lose 30% of the earnings[/QUOTE]Well Redondo, you seem to have travelled a long distance since you first posted on this board. Our first discussion was about internal inflation and the line you took then was that internal price increases didn't increase the cost of exports. I said then that you were economically naive and I think I was right the first time. Now you expect that a 4:1 exchange rate is going to send the farmers here to the wall. But it ain't happened yet. Remember Mrs Beeton's advice about how to make a rabbit pie. "First catch your rabbit". In our context, the drop in the exchange rate has to take place before any of the suppositions you and a few other doom and gloom experts continually advance have a chance of occurring. The economy here is volatile but at the moment is going great guns. Internal inflation will continue, but with the 'rivers of gold', as a friend of mine here calls the soy export income, there is a lot of upside to the economy. Both for the farmers and the government.
At the rate you post, the contents of your posts ought to be devalued. At least there is a reason for devaluing your posts rather than ill-informed speculation on the Argentine economy, which you would have us believe is reason enough for a devaluation of the peso.
I guess you would have to hold the record for the quickest number of posts with the least content.
Geee! Not a record I'd cherish.
This is especially posted for Rodondo.
Devaluation benefits exporters and therefore farmers. They sell in U$ and rather than losing 30% of their income, at a 4:1 exchange rate, they gain an increased ARG$ income of 20%.
Manufacturers generally favour a currency that is cheap because it makes them more competitive. If you have followed the AIRBUS Vs BOEING pricing of the past couple of years, AIRBUS is not competitive with BOEING because of the value of the Euro, apart from manufacturing matters.
[QUOTE=Argento]I guess you would have to hold the record for the quickest number of posts with the least content.
Geee! Not a record I'd cherish.[/QUOTE]Let's start the personal insults and show how classy you are.
Or did you just run out of arguments?
[QUOTE=Argento]This is especially posted for Rodondo.
Devaluation benefits exporters and therefore farmers. They sell in U$ and rather than losing 30% of their income, at a 4:1 exchange rate, they gain an increased ARG$ income of 20%.[/QUOTE]You must be asleep the last 5 years because eventhough the dollar devalued heavenly the peso devalued even more. A 1:4 peso therefore lead not only to a weaker dollar but also to a even weaker peso.
And that will cost farmers lose profits.
[QUOTE=Redondo]Or did you just run out of arguments?[/QUOTE]It appears that you don't get it. Mongers aren't interested in arguing with you because you are a lightweight. When they do "argue" with you, it's like beating a one legged, blind schoolgirl in a footrace. But, hey, keep on trying! It's amusing to watch you fall down and not know where you are.
August trade surplus down 58% due to surging exports.
I said it earlier but it seems now that Argentina starts to suffer from surging imports that can't be off-set by growing exports. The main reason for the surge in imports are the increase in fuel imports. I don't know if Argentina is already an fuel importing country but soon they will be, with leads to a more uneven trade balance.
The August fiscal surplus (before debt service) was about 850 million dollars. With a debt service of around 9 billion dollar next year the fiscal surplus will barely be enough to pay off debts.
The budget which was send to congress (Why? Was probally a lot more positive then the reality.
P. S. The Argentine state also recieved a lot of cash from about 1 million people switching from a AFJP pension fund to a state fund, but that won't be there next season.