American Politics - Mar del Plata

[Nibu Raphael]

Just read up that article on Chavez. Yes he seems to be helping out the people. Now I am even pissed more at bush look now how he has fucked up the dollar against the real in Brazil? Shit now its at its worst like 2.07 reales. Bush is just a creep. Did everyone see yesterday on the news the people getting thrown out left and right when confronting that cronie rumsfield? Ray Mcgovern also an ex cia dude almost got thrown out too. Man are lot of people pissed at our administration for all the lies. If Chavez is a demon he is a very very very small demon compared to bush he is an angel. I again like him. Morales the whacky indian seems nuts but chavez is different. Man also since I have been back living in Shitcago USSA. The country is also going down the hill. These immigration rallies that our government created has also fucked up shit more. Now more racial tensions will happen her for sure. Has anyone also saw that crazy racist video game border patrol? Funny in a way but still fucked up. Maybe post something later. Until next time, Nibu.

Its always helpful to back up opinions with some references. Here is an article written by Medea Benjamin (I think one of the most courageous and intelligent women on the planet! Regarding Chavez's reelection victory.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-01.htm

Published on Tuesday, August 17, 2004 by CommonDreams. Org.

Why Hugo Chavez Won a Landslide Victory.

By Medea Benjamin.

When the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was reaffirmed in a landslide 58-42 percent victory on Sunday, the opposition who put the recall vote on the ballot was stunned. They obviously don't spend much time in the nation's poor neighborhoods.

[Nibu Raphael]

Alright I here ya. I did thought that he was of british and spanish descent. I did not know he was of Irish descent sorry on that.

I have no position on Fox Quesada one way or the other but I dislike it when people of Irish descent are referred to as British, since the British have been screwing the Irish ever since they kidnapped Queen Droggheda in 1122, and since I am of Irish descent.

I have zero interest in Mexican politics.

[Dickhead]

I have no position on Fox Quesada one way or the other but I dislike it when people of Irish descent are referred to as British, since the British have been screwing the Irish ever since they kidnapped Queen Drogheda in 1122, and since I am of Irish descent.

I have zero interest in Mexican politics.

[Nibu Raphael]

Dude he is not typical mexican. He is aryan and a globalist. Tell me why? You support that scumbag? Come on dude lighten up.

1) It is Vicente Fox, not Vincente Fox.

2) He is part Irish, not British.

3) You don't know squat.

[Nibu Raphael]

Castro And Chavez are both different. Chavez has freedom in his country. Fudel has tons and tons of prisons and also the police watch you in cuba. In Venezuela they do not constantly haras you. Cuba and Venezuela are apart on freedom. Cuba is a police state and Venezuela is a free state.

OV,

I'm not a great fan of Castro, I've been to Cuba and the lack of freedom for the Cubans that I saw is pretty disgusting. But he does get on well with most of the world, (I'm talking about europe and latin america); its the US embargo that really fucks the economy.

[Dickhead]

1) It is Vicente Fox, not Vincente Fox.

2) He is part Irish, not British.

3) You don't know squat.

[Nibu Raphael]

Chavez Tries and is a great guy. How about Vincente Fox? Man that guy is a pure globalist pig. Look at how he is supporting all the ilegal imigration flow coming in to the you. S. Now in Texas I heard they will have milatary patrols all over Texas soon but nothing to control the border. To any Mexicans out there reading Vincente Fox hates the typical mexican he is a racist. He is from aryan type family of british and spanish descent. The guy is just as bad as bush. The ilegal immigration problem of 25 ilegals is purely out of control. This madness must stop but Vincente Fox loves this. Just like Fidel Castro was getting rid of undesirables in the 80, s with that mariela boatlift scandal. Fox And the people in power in D. F. Are racist scum. The Mexican flag is an embarassment these days under Nazi Vincente Fox. The guy is a total globalist fascist scum. Why again the bashing on Chavez? Remember how he stood up to Vincente Fox? Chavez has the balls to do that. Now look out after globalist Fox they have some left winger Manuel Lopez Obrador that will want the presidency. The people left in Mexico will vote for him for sure as they are getting pissed with Fox the european not Mexican. People the familes in power in Mexico City are of aryan spanish bllod and british lineage too plus rich jewish families and even a polish mexican lady is in control there. To Mexicans wake up on Fox. He is robbing you people blind.

[Jjgoinslow]

Dirk, we can agree to disagree I guess. If you read the debate you will realize that one point has been raised and countered, both with information to back. That point regards whether or not the election was stolen. The reader (very very few I imagine) can read and if they have some statistics under their belt, they can interpret and decide (just like fox news huh

Your particular accusations are rather general. I certainly have responded to you but also in a general manner. You can't really refute nor prove generalities very easily. But since I read your last message as a request for some direct response:

"the middle class and upper classes absolutely despise Chavez because of his bullshit policies and rhetoric."

-I said before, I agreed that much of the upper class dislikes him.

-I don't agree his policies are bullshit, but you can write volumes about that, its so general, so I merely posted an article which provides some insight into what his policies are doing for poor people. NOT merely crumbs mind you.

"The poor Venezuelans support Chavez because he tells them what they want to hear and gives them a crumb once in a while"

- as I said, he certainly uses the rhetoric and the policies to exploit and build an advantage. But then that doesnt make the policies bad or the rhetoric untrue. Although I think he overplays this, he might tone down a bit, but its not like he is cherrypicking intelligence and starting wars or killing his people.

"Chavez has a massive windfall of cash in which to do as he pleases, and instead of investing wholeheartedly to improve the lives of the poor he panders to, he directs the funds abroad in order to gain personal influence and prestige among his neighbors and others."

-are you suggesting that Chavez steals the money? Never seen evidence of that. Are you suggesting the majority of the economy leaves the country? Id like to see the evidence (I'm not refuting it) Do you know what percentage of our Budget goes to social services? Yikes its small. Are you suggesting his foreign policy is only a facade, that it has no positive goals nor benefit? Should venezuela be isolationist and not engage its neighbors? If so how do you square such a view with US foreign policy. The US funds political opposition groups in Venezuela? Is that ok? Chavez wins anyway!

"Chavez is an avid supporter of Cuba, North Korea, and Iran, three states that have zero respect for basic human rights and liberties."

-I don't know about Iran and North Korea, but it wouldnt surprise me if he sells them oil. But if human rights are the basis for whether or not we should engage a foreign country, than perhaps the US should withdraw from relations with China, Pakistan and a host of countries in the Coalition of the willing. We regularly prop of 3rd world dictators when it fits within our own objectives. Conservatives don't like this guy cause he doesnt play along, he is not a US puppet.

"Chavez clearly has a personal vendetta against the Bush Administration for its support of the 2002 military coup that temporarily deposed Chavez."

-uh. Gosh isnt that a good reason not to like or trush someone? I mean coup isnt like some kind of town hall meeting.

"he buys up $500 million USD in Argentine junk bonds with the national wealth in order to gain influence with Argentina and the Mercosur bloc at large."

- I am not qualified to evaluate whether or not that is a good move, but I don't see that it is necesarily a bad move. Maybe they are not really junk, maybe argentine investments will help the south in the short term and profit venezuela in the long run. Who knows. Maybe he is fostering stability in the South (to use a hawk phrase)

"Chavez has threatened to burn "his" oil fields if the United States invades Venezuela, ala Saddam Hussein, just to make sure the "white terrorist" cannot get his hands on Venezuelan oil. What an environmental / economic / ecological disaster that would be for Venezuela."

-Ive heard his threats, and well, I agree burning oil fields is a bad idea, but isnt the striking thing that he is saying "if the US invades", why would the US invade anyway? Well it seems improbable to us. But then looking at the history and the current wars, Chavez and the venezuelan people have reason to be worried. I don't blame any leader for at least providing some rhetorical disincentive for the US to invade. Its not like his is kidnapping our citizens.

Anyway Dirk it appears you are a democrat, so why are you such a passionate opponent of Chavez? Has he massacred his people? Funded terrorist organizations? Nuked anyone? Invaded any countries? Etc, ad nosium.

If south america continues to build its society around a more socialist model (relative to the US) and with time presents itself as a world power to contend with, then the current spats will come into better focus. Because the US doesnt want socialism growing in its backyard, even if it happens in a *democratic* fashion and indeed, we have a history of squashing socialist democracies in latin america.

Well, like I said, we can agree to disagree.

Jj

[Rock Harders]

JJgoinslow-

None of what you are posting refutes any of the statements I made in my post. It should be no surprise that Chavez wins elections in Venezuela- more than 50% of the Venezuelan population is dirt poor and desperate, and thus buys into his "eat the rich" bullshit and praises him for the menial crumbs he throws their way, all the while he buys up $500 million USD in Argentine junk bonds with the national wealth in order to gain influence with Argentina and the Mercosur bloc at large. I read today on the AP (associated press) that Chavez has threatened to burn "his" oil fields if the United States invades Venezuela, ala Saddam Hussein, just to make sure the "white terrorist" cannot get his hands on Venezuelan oil. What an environmental / economic / ecological disaster that would be for Venezuela.

Suerte,

Dirk Diggler

[Jjgoinslow]

I commend Papa Benito for searching for and providing some evidence. However this hackjob was analyzed and exposed by CEPR as such. Unfortunately the same media sources which help to publicize the erroneous research generally fail to publicize the corrections and deeper analysis that follows, especially when it doesnt fit the standard lens (that chavez is a democrat. Er I mean demagogue) But any economist with salt can read through this rather technical work and understand why the aforementioned study overlooked (purposefully or not) its own impossibility.

The short of it:

* The chances of getting an audited sample, under Hausmann and Rigobón's assumptions of how it was selected, of 41.6 percent YES, if the true (non-fraudulent) vote were 59 percent YES, are less than one in 28 billion trillion.

* Even if the true vote had the recall barely succeeding with only 50.1 percent YES, the chances of getting an audited sample of 41.6 percent YES are less than one in a million.

Heres an excerpt of the very long of it.

Center for Economic and Policy Research.

http://www.cepr.net/publications/venezuela_2004_09.htm

Black Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud:
A Look at Hausmann and Rigobón's Analysis of Venezuela's Referendum Vote

By Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick, and Todd Tucker
September 20, 2004

Executive Summary

On September 3, economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, and Roberto Rigobón of the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management, presented econometric results that the authors maintain are evidence of fraud in Venezuela's August 15 recall referendum. The paper was reported by four major international news outlets and was used to raise doubts about the validity of the referendum among U.S. legislators and policy-makers. It was also used to support claims of fraud by opposition leaders in Venezuela.

In this paper we examine the results presented by Hausmann and Rigobón (available at http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~rhausma/new/blackswan03.pdf) and find that they provide no evidence of fraud. This concurs with the findings of the Carter Center (September 17), showing that the sample selected on August 18 for an audit of the vote that they observed, was indeed a random sample of all voting centers, and that electronic fraud of the type suggested by Hausmann and Rigobón was therefore impossible.

In this referendum voters expressed their preference (YES or NO) with a touch screen voting machine. The machine then printed out a paper ballot with the voter's choice, which voters deposited in a ballot box. The audit of 150 voting centers, observed and certified by the Carter Center and the OAS, found that the paper ballots matched the electronic votes within a 0.1 percent margin.

However, Hausmann and Rigobón put forth a theory of electronic fraud that was consistent with a clean audit. According to their illustrative example, suppose the machines were rigged at 3,000 polling centers, and the remaining 1,580 were randomly selected to be left clean. If the computer program that generated the sample could be fixed to sample only from the clean centers, the electronic votes would match the paper ballots in the audit -- in spite of the fraud.

The authors then present two sets of evidence which they claim indicates that fraud of this type took place.

The main problem with their analysis is that, according to their assumptions, the audited sample of 150 voting sites should reflect the true -- that is, non-fraudulent -- referendum result. Such a large sample provides incontrovertible evidence of the validity of the official results, which were well within the range that would be expected given the results found in the audited sample.

By contrast, the exit poll used by Hausmann and Rigobón, published by the American polling firm Penn, Schoen, Berland & Associates found that 59 percent of voters were in favor of the recall (YES), and 41 percent opposed (NO). This was the opposite of the official results certified by the Carter Center and the Organization of American States, in which voters rejected the recall by a margin of 59 percent (NO) to 41 percent (YES).

But the audited sample had only 41.6 percent YES votes. This paper finds that:

* The chances of getting an audited sample, under Hausmann and Rigobón's assumptions of how it was selected, of 41.6 percent YES, if the true (non-fraudulent) vote were 59 percent YES, are less than one in 28 billion trillion.
* Even if the true vote had the recall barely succeeding with only 50.1 percent YES, the chances of getting an audited sample of 41.6 percent YES are less than one in a million.


This paper also examines the other statistical evidence presented by Hausmann and Rigobón to support their theory of electronic fraud and finds that it is dependent on implausible assumptions. We conclude that the results that they interpret as evidence of fraud most likely stem from a misspecification in their econometric model.

(ill spare you all the entire paper, its really long!)
http://www.cepr.net/publications/venezuela_2004_09.htm

[Daddy Rulz]

Seriously I'm not, He, not Bush, was able to walk freely in the crowds at Mar del Plata. Kind of amazing that any President could do that. He is doing something right.

I guess my cynicism is more a result of the history of Latin American pols, almost invairably they end up like Gilligan in his dream of power. "I promise you this, that, and the other thing" while the money seems to slide to Switzerland and the poor are still poor.

Perhaps Chavez will change that, the optimist in me hopes so but the cynic doubts.

[Jjgoinslow]

Its always helpful to back up opinions with some references. Here is an article written by Medea Benjamin (I think one of the most courageous and intelligent women on the planet! Regarding Chavez's reelection victory.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-01.htm

Published on Tuesday, August 17, 2004 by CommonDreams. Org.

Why Hugo Chavez Won a Landslide Victory.

By Medea Benjamin.

When the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was reaffirmed in a landslide 58-42 percent victory on Sunday, the opposition who put the recall vote on the ballot was stunned. They obviously don't spend much time in the nation's poor neighborhoods.

.

[Jjgoinslow]

Chavez uses Bush exactly like Castro has used the EEUU forever. If you can seem to be fighting a strong enemy it makes you look valiant. Needless to say I don't see tanks rolling in Caracas anytime soon.

God I hope and pray that the Dems take the house in Nov. Can anybody say "Congressional investigation" (I know I can't spell it but you know what I mean)

What you say is true. But just because Chavez exploits the situation doesn't mean that there is no truth to it. Sure Chavez's rhetoric can be pretty strong, but doesn't he have good reason to believe the US might attack.

Given our history of backing insurgents in latin america and overthrowing democratically elected goverments there? And speaking of the way a leader uses an enemy to bolster their position, that pretty much defines Bush. Stompin through the middle-east as if we knew what we were doing, as if we could improve things over there with a war.

Argentines seem to have alot of respect and admiration for Chavez. He is one of the few who will stand up to Bush. In the press at least. Its true that much of the upper class in Venezuela hates him. He represents a threat to their established order, the standard equation whereby a few profit immensely while the vast majority of a population is left to forage. But he has retained constituency in the upper classes as well and of course he is the darling of the intellectual elite. They even hosted the World Social Forum a couple months back. And the business class has their own uncensored media networks which are allowed to criticize and campaign against Chavez in democratic fashion. And he still wins overwhelmingly in democratic elections that the Carter Commission has declared fair and valid (the same Carter Commission that declined to oversee the elections in the US because we didnt meet the basic requirements for validation of the vote) Nibu may be trippin over his own nuts but his fundamental points regarding Chavez are spot on.

Jj

[El Perro]

Very nice Dirk. For a young man, you show some nice perspective with that post. And yes, the republicans are scared shitless about the midterm elections, witness today the postioning of Karl "I will lie, cheat and manipulate like the worst ***** you have ever seen" Rove, into a role that focusses solely on the election. Expect character assassination to be hitting the media soon, and the Fox mealy mouthed talking heads to begin their work of servitude.

Fed up and now in Argentina dog

[Stowe]

Amen to that. If only it could possibly happen.

Suerte,

Stowe